Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[umphrey]

Honestly if he accepted the QO I would be happy to have him back and its not a bad deal. I don't think we need to be active in FA anyway besides RF and bargain pitching.

[djoctagone]

from a club's perspective, are draft picks valued more now that so many rounds of the rule 4 draft have been eliminated?

[adambr2]

Garcia is having a very nice year. But we are paying for his future next year, not his past. He is neither likely as good as he has been this year going forward nor as bad as he was in 2020.

 

He is not the caliber of player that the Brewers should really consider offering a 1 year/20M contract to and I do not think they will.

[pacopete4]

All depends if you guy in on his new healthy ways. He could be this type of player for a few more years. Or he could go back to being a bit lazy and out of shape and being just okay.

[umphrey]

$19M isn’t what it used to be… he’ll get close to that in AAV, the Brewers can do it without long term commitment. I don’t think there is a better way to spend the money. We don’t need a pair of $10M players or whatever.

[adambr2]

$19M isn’t what it used to be… he’ll get close to that in AAV, the Brewers can do it without long term commitment. I don’t think there is a better way to spend the money. We don’t need a pair of $10M players or whatever.

 

Kolten Wong is a $10M player. There's better values than 20M for Avi.

[PeaveyFury]

$19M isn’t what it used to be… he’ll get close to that in AAV, the Brewers can do it without long term commitment. I don’t think there is a better way to spend the money. We don’t need a pair of $10M players or whatever.

 

Kolten Wong is a $10M player. There's better values than 20M for Avi.

 

The value of 20m for Avi only really comes into play if the Brewers feel based on their own due diligence that there won't be a market for him or that he'll accept a one-year deal. Otherwise, Avi is likely to test the market. He's probably set to obtain the biggest contract of his career if he stays on pace to finish with an .850-ish OPS, and potentially the last big one of his career as he heads into his 30s. Would he pass up the chance for something like 3/$40m just to take the higher AAV QO? My bet is no. His representation has to know of his hot/cold nature, and this may be his best opportunity to hit free agency after a truly great year. He could bank on himself on a high value one-year deal like Grandall did, but I don't see it. Grandall's value was suppressed by his previous season, Avi's is peak.

[umphrey]

$19M isn’t what it used to be… he’ll get close to that in AAV, the Brewers can do it without long term commitment. I don’t think there is a better way to spend the money. We don’t need a pair of $10M players or whatever.

 

Kolten Wong is a $10M player. There's better values than 20M for Avi.

 

Wong was a success story, he's out playing his contract. JBJ is a $12M player. I don't mind paying Avi instead of a pair of guys that may be Wong + JBJ.

[adambr2]

$19M isn’t what it used to be… he’ll get close to that in AAV, the Brewers can do it without long term commitment. I don’t think there is a better way to spend the money. We don’t need a pair of $10M players or whatever.

 

Kolten Wong is a $10M player. There's better values than 20M for Avi.

 

Wong was a success story, he's out playing his contract. JBJ is a $12M player. I don't mind paying Avi instead of a pair of guys that may be Wong + JBJ.

 

But Avi is outplaying his as well. His career numbers suggest he's much more likely to be closer to an average corner OF starter than who he has been this season.

[DoubleSwitch]

I think money will be tight next year with Cain and JBJ still under contract, and all our stud pitchers entering arbitration. I don't really like the risk of offering Garcia a QO unless he finishes the season on a hot streak with an OPS around 900. There's tons of uncertainty around what the financial structure in baseball is going to be and even if there's going to be a season next year, and Garcia seems like the type of player with a wide range of valuations around the league. If the market doesn't play out well for him and the teams that like him go elsewhere his price could collapse. If I were him I'd probably take the QO.

[DHonks]

Garcia seems like a classic Latin American late breakout type player. Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, Jose Guillen, and many others.

[reillymcshane]

As we have said many times, it only takes on team to really like Avi to blow away the market.

 

That said, corner outfielders who are 30+ usually don't get huge contracts. Let's look at last year.

 

- Marcell Ozuna - coming off a monster age 29 season, got 4-years and $68M.

- Michael Brantley - an excellent hitter - albeit with health concerns - got 2/$32M coming into his age 34 season.

- Jackie Bradley is probably a better comp for Avi - even if their skill sets aren't that similar. He got 2/$24M.

 

Also, let's look at players available this upcoming off season:

 

- Nick Castellanos

- Michael Conforto

- Eddie Rosario

- Starling Marte

- A.J. Pollock

- J.D. Martinez

- Kris Bryant

 

There are also some other players who are aging and coming off lesser seasons - such as Tommy Pham and Lawrence McCutchen.

 

Now, some of those guys can play CF or other positions - so it's not just corner guys. But it shows there are some okay players available - meaning teams have options. Of course, I'm not sure who will be in the market for a corner OF next year. We shall have to see how that plays out.

 

Another issue facing Avi is that - even 2021 Avi - is just a 'good' player. Not a great one. Teams are often reluctant to put a lot of money it solid players - so I don't see an overspend (but again - it just takes one team).

 

Add in some inconsistent play - from season to season - and there are question marks.

 

I very much doubt we give him a QO. He'd probably take $19M in a heartbeat as the offer would only depress his market.

 

But as PeaveyFury points out, I think a 3/$40M is not unrealistic. For most teams, that kind of money/years is not an albatross. And at age 30 - he should be able to keep up his production for a couple of more years.

 

I'm guessing teams try and get Avi for 2/$26 or something like that. And he tries to extract that one more year. Which could happen. 3/$36M might happen as well.

 

Those are just my guesses. I just see Avi as a bit of an inconsistent player. And a guy who is good - but not great. Kudos to him getting in good shape - it has paid off.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Are we sure this is going to be a player option? Also, when options are declined can the team then offer a QO?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Are we sure this is going to be a player option? Also, when options are declined can the team then offer a QO?

 

He only needs 23 more plate appearances this season for the team option to become a mutual option. That should be a pretty sure bet, barring injury.

 

It is likely that the Brewers will exercise their half of the mutual option, but also just as likely Avi will decline his half. If either side of the mutual option is declined, and Garcia elects free agency, the team can still extend a QO.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Thanks for that info

[Outlander]

With today's game Garcia has reached 1,050 prorated plate appearances over 2020/21 which would mean it is now a mutual option instead of a team option.

[mtrebs]

Garcia declined his option and became a free agent.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/avisail-garcia-brewers-declines-option-free-agent.html

[TURBO]

Garcia declined his option and became a free agent.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/avisail-garcia-brewers-declines-option-free-agent.html

 

I'm ok with that, will be interesting to see what he gets on the open market.

 

He might regret his decision...

[DHonks]

Depending on our budget, I’d definitely consider making a qualifying offer. Worst case scenario is we have him for one more year

[MrTPlush]

We would have to be out of our minds to give Avisail Garcia $18.4mil.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We would have to be out of our minds to give Avisail Garcia $18.4mil.

 

He's probably looking at $14-$15+ million a year on a 4-year deal. It's certainly not "out of our minds" to pay him $18.4 million for one year.

[adambr2]

We would have to be out of our minds to give Avisail Garcia $18.4mil.

 

Agreed, that seems like a really bad allocation of resources even for one year. You better have it on awfully good authority that he's going to decline if you're going to make him a QO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We would have to be out of our minds to give Avisail Garcia $18.4mil.

 

Agreed, that seems like a really bad allocation of resources even for one year. You better have it on awfully good authority that he's going to decline if you're going to make him a QO.

 

Castellanos is likely looking at $20+ million per year for at least 4 years. Is he that much of a better bet to live up to that sort of deal than Avi would on a 1-year qualifying offer?

[MrTPlush]

Castellanos is likely looking at $20+ million per year for at least 4 years. Is he that much of a better bet to live up to that sort of deal than Avi would on a 1-year qualifying offer?

 

The ceiling is way higher for Castellanos and his track record is honestly in a different universe. Castellenos has posted an .800+ OPS 5/6 of his past 6 years. The shortened 2020 was his only year he has not...and was just barely under .800.

 

Garcia on the other hand has two .800+ OPS seasons in his entire career, which were separated by three years.

[adambr2]

We would have to be out of our minds to give Avisail Garcia $18.4mil.

 

Agreed, that seems like a really bad allocation of resources even for one year. You better have it on awfully good authority that he's going to decline if you're going to make him a QO.

 

Castellanos is likely looking at $20+ million per year for at least 4 years. Is he that much of a better bet to live up to that sort of deal than Avi would on a 1-year qualifying offer?

 

I think Castellanos is quite a bit better bat, yes. Castellanos has had one season under an .800 OPS since 2015 and that was the weird 2020 season, Avi has been over .800 only two seasons in his career which includes this season.

 

Castellanos kind of has career numbers skewed by his first 3 seasons where he clearly took some time to develop. I think those years are clearly the outlier of his career and since then he's been a really consistently good bat whereas Avi has always been a bit more hit and miss.

 

With the DH likely coming to the NL I'd definitely commit longer term to Nick's bat. One year on Avi wouldn't be the absolute end of the world on a QO but I wouldn't be a fan and am not counting on him to replicate in '22 what he did in '21.