Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers would already be on the line for $2 million, they likely gladly would take him at the current $12 million option if they could, is risking $7 million more on the chance he declines the QO really that far fetched?

 

I mean, sure, you could twist it around to be "only a little more", but it is a lot more money. Almost 60% more than the option. That entire $19mil is arguably more than our entire off season budget after arby guys and filling the bottom of the roster. If it ain't 100% it is probably dang near close. Hence, why I mentioned Attanasio is probably opening up his wallet to make that risk worthy. Always possible they overpay for a guy because it is a one year deal and carries no long term risk.

 

That is why they may not even mess around with it. They are already strapped for cash and I doubt they are dying to get Avi back. He isn't a consistent performer, there is decent risk regarding his performance, and we have a decent replacement already in house. Will Tyrone Taylor be better than Avi? Probably not...but is the gap big enough to warrant $18mil extra at the position? That seems really unlikely, especially if Avi regresses next year.

 

I mean, yah, I can't envision Avi taking it. His worst case is probably 3/$36mil or something....but he would not be the first guy to have a dead market and suddenly find multi year offers non existent. I would guess he wants to try and find a big pay day being 30+ years old.

[KeithStone53151]

Piggybacking your JBJ post, if one were to assume JBJ exercises his 2022 option but the mutual 2023 option is declined, yearly payouts would be as follows.

2021 - 3 mil

2022 - 3.666 mil

2023 - 3.167 mil

2024 - 7.167 mil

2025 - 7 mil

[tmwiese55]

Besides the drop off from Avi to Taylor have to factor in the drop from Taylor to whoever the new depth guy is, chances are he won't be nearly as good as Taylor. And with how injury prone/old guys like Cain, Yeli, JBj, and even Taylor has been on the DL that 5th guy is likely gonna play a lot.

[umphrey]

I'd like to have him back, but I'm also willing to go with JBJ/Taylor and shop the trade market in the off-season or during next season

[PeaveyFury]

Only way they offer him that QO is if Attanasio pulls out the check book in the event he accepts. $20mil is a lot and Garcia is definitely a guy who could see a weak market due to his past inconsistencies. It isn't like if Garcia accepts we just shrug our shoulders because we have payroll to burn...$20mil would be crippling to offseason plans. This is especially problematic if we don't really care to have Garcia back. Which, in my opinion, is the case. I am betting they would rather shift the payroll elsewhere and pray for a JBJ bounce-back plus let Tyrone Taylor have a full time spot to play.

 

The chance of being saddled with $20mil in salary on a player we probably don't want to spend a bunch of money on is a huge risk for a team with a serious payroll crunch. That risk is not worth a single draft pick. If they knew that Garcia would turn in another .850+ OPS season next year they might consider it, but Garcia has done a pretty good job in his career showing he can't be counted on...especially in consecutive seasons.

 

For those reasons I would let him just walk.

 

Well, you’re certainly correct that they’d have to be willing to pay the salary if Avi accepts. But, this front office has clearly shown a willingness to pay out on high AAV one-year deals previously. Also, Garcia has to make the decision on accepting/declining prior to free agency, so other than whatever pre-FA due diligence his people are able to do, they won’t know whether the market for him will be weak or not. Ala Moustakas in the 2017 offseason.

 

Still, I have a hard time seeing Avi getting anything less than a multi year deal in free agency. Even if the AAV is less than $19 mil, I think he’d be a lock to get more guaranteed money than that in free agency, even if it’s

spread out over multiple years. For that reason, I can’t see him accepting.

[patrickgpe]

I don't know if this is valid or not, but if the bucks have to choose between giving 12-15 million to Garcia or Escobar, I will choose the latter, only because of the position he plays. I think the brewers would be fine with out Garcia even though he has had an excellent season. If Escobar is allowed to leave, questions return to 3rd base.

[SeaBass]

Mike Moustakas turned his 2019 .254/.329/.516/.845, 114 OPS+ season into a 4 year $64 million contract. It was his 30 year old season (he turned 31 in September that year).

 

Garcia is going off at .275/.346/.506/.853, 127 OPS+ season with a little over 1 month to go. He's been a pretty solid to above average defender as well. He just turned 30 in June.

 

Garcia has definitely had a more up and down career, Moose has been a bit more consistent but not exactly stunning either.

 

Question becomes, how much do teams hold Garcia's bad 2 months in 2020 against him? He had a decent 2019 (.796 OPS, 113 OPS+) and is having a really nice 2021. I think he declines a QO immediately, but yes there are no guarantees.

[TURBO]

Sure wish we could put the Cain and JBJ money into Garcia... Moving just one of those contracts would be a major blessing in the off-season, but I just don't see it happening.

 

Where would we be win/loss wise without Garcia this year? (I know he started out cold, really cold...)

 

Yelich, until recently, has been crap. Cain has spent a good portion on the IL, so he has basically been a non-factor. JBJ has been absolute garbage. Taylor has been a bright spot, but inconsistent.

 

Take Garcia out of that group and that is a pretty dismal OF group.

 

It worries me to go with Yelich, Cain, JBJ, and Taylor next season as any number of bad things can happen with that group.

 

Can Taylor be counted on as a full time right fielder? Will he make up for Garcia's lost stats?

 

How many games will Cain play next year? How many trips to the IL?

 

Will JBJ continue to be a non-factor offensively?

 

That leaves Yelich, who is finally showing sign of life.

 

What a risky bunch to be taking up all those at bats. (personally, I think Yelich is going to be just fine, not really worried about him)

 

I am fine with seeing what we truly have in Taylor, but I am not fine with trusting JBJ to be anything other than a late inning defensive replacement. If he has an extended time where we have to have him in CF while Cain is inevitably out with injury, that will be a very bad thing. I'd feel a lot better with Taylor in CF and Garcia in RF.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

 

Take Garcia out of that group and that is a pretty dismal OF group.

 

It worries me to go with Yelich, Cain, JBJ, and Taylor next season as any number of bad things can happen with that group.

 

Can Taylor be counted on as a full time right fielder? Will he make up for Garcia's lost stats?

 

How many games will Cain play next year? How many trips to the IL?

 

Will JBJ continue to be a non-factor offensively?

 

That leaves Yelich, who is finally showing sign of life.

 

What a risky bunch to be taking up all those at bats. (personally, I think Yelich is going to be just fine, not really worried about him)

 

Leaving Garcia walk doesn't mean we can't add others to the mix. I'm fine with keeping him but I also think there are other players who can be had for less that can help fill the void. It's not an either/or situation.

[monty57]

This whole conversation is a good reminder as to why the Brewers need to maintain a strong farm. Good players get expensive, and we will never have enough money to hold onto everyone. We need to be able to continually add guys who will play for league minimum. This will help us replace some guys, and the low price tag will allow us to spend money to retain others.

 

Of course Stearns will make some moves, but I don't expect any big-money additions. If we don't trust our offense and we don't have any offensive prospects ready to help out, then we would probably have to deal from our pitching depth to improve our position players.

 

But Stearns is always full of surprises, so I shouldn't even try to predict what he'll do.

[umphrey]

This would be a fun gamble: offer him the QO, if he accepts you trade prospects to unload the Cain deal. So you either get a comp pick, or you trade prospects to rent Avi for 1 year.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Why would you risk a $19M QO to Avi in an even year. Avi has shown he cannot hit in an even year.

[DoubleSwitch]

The Brewers would already be on the line for $2 million, they likely gladly would take him at the current $12 million option if they could, is risking $7 million more on the chance he declines the QO really that far fetched?

 

If he accepts the qualifying offer he still gets that 2 million on top of it, that's money owed to him from his current contract not his next one. you don't get to subtract that from the value of the qo

[DHonks]

I'm still a little baffled by the JBJ player option. If he opts out, he gets $6.5million? So wouldn't he want to opt out, collect the money, and go somewhere else where hopefully he can land a $5-7 million deal and come out ahead?

[Oxy]

I'm still a little baffled by the JBJ player option. If he opts out, he gets $6.5million? So wouldn't he want to opt out, collect the money, and go somewhere else where hopefully he can land a $5-7 million deal and come out ahead?

 

I thought Stearns way overpaid JBJ right off the bat. He is guaranteed WAY too much money, and the contract almost entraps the Brewers year-by-year to keep him another year or else pay a WAY too expensive buyout.

[MrTPlush]

I'm still a little baffled by the JBJ player option. If he opts out, he gets $6.5million? So wouldn't he want to opt out, collect the money, and go somewhere else where hopefully he can land a $5-7 million deal and come out ahead?

 

JBJ is going to be 32 years old and will amass 350+ PAs of an OPS waaaay under .600 and a .170ish average.

 

I appreciate the optimism, but there is a 100% chance JBJ accepts his option. Who would even want him? And if they do why would he get more than near league minimum.

[Lathund]

I'm still a little baffled by the JBJ player option. If he opts out, he gets $6.5million? So wouldn't he want to opt out, collect the money, and go somewhere else where hopefully he can land a $5-7 million deal and come out ahead?

 

If he opts out it ends up being 1 yr $13m. If he opts in, it ends up being 2 year $24m (The mutual option for 2023 would make it 3 years $28m, but it's an option designed to be declined). It's opting into $17.5m or taking a $6.5m buyout, so it's $11m he needs to beat to come out ahead. He's 100% opting in.

[SeaBass]

The Brewers would already be on the line for $2 million, they likely gladly would take him at the current $12 million option if they could, is risking $7 million more on the chance he declines the QO really that far fetched?

 

If he accepts the qualifying offer he still gets that 2 million on top of it, that's money owed to him from his current contract not his next one. you don't get to subtract that from the value of the qo

You're right, I didn't factor that in. I still think he declines the QO if the Brewers offer him one.

 

I'm a little curious how this is all going to work out once the season officially ends with a new CBA needing to be negotiated. It could change the way qualifying offers work entirely. Do teams go through with all these roster decisions before negotiating the new CBA or is everything put on hold until they have a new deal? We will see.

[sveumrules]

I'm a little curious how this is all going to work out once the season officially ends with a new CBA needing to be negotiated. It could change the way qualifying offers work entirely. Do teams go through with all these roster decisions before negotiating the new CBA or is everything put on hold until they have a new deal? We will see.

 

From what I can tell, the CBA expires December 1st.

 

Believe the Qualifying Offer deadline is like a week after the World Series or something?

 

Would imagine teams will still be making QOs, but with the understanding the terms of those QOs could either change or disappear completely depending on how the new CBA shakes out.

 

That uncertainty around the CBA, combined with all the Arby's raises incoming, makes me think the Brewers will be more likely to not offer Avi the QO.

[PeaveyFury]

Yes, the QO deadline is usually ~ early November.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm still a little baffled by the JBJ player option. If he opts out, he gets $6.5million? So wouldn't he want to opt out, collect the money, and go somewhere else where hopefully he can land a $5-7 million deal and come out ahead?

 

The money is a deferral. He accepted less pay for 2021 but that 6.5mil has always been in his pocket. What you suggest is maybe what was always planned. Brewers FO just found a way to entice him to sign while not paying much in 2021 and with new CBA forthcoming see where future money is headed.

[djoctagone]

I'm a little curious how this is all going to work out once the season officially ends with a new CBA needing to be negotiated. It could change the way qualifying offers work entirely. Do teams go through with all these roster decisions before negotiating the new CBA or is everything put on hold until they have a new deal? We will see.

From what I can tell, the CBA expires December 1st.

 

Believe the Qualifying Offer deadline is like a week after the World Series or something?

 

Would imagine teams will still be making QOs, but with the understanding the terms of those QOs could either change or disappear completely depending on how the new CBA shakes out.

 

That uncertainty around the CBA, combined with all the Arby's raises incoming, makes me think the Brewers will be more likely to not offer Avi the QO.

reported here that the collective bargaining agreement expires 31 december. and that qualifying offers must be made soon after the world series.

[sveumrules]

reported here that the collective bargaining agreement expires 31 december. and that qualifying offers must be made soon after the world series.

 

Can't read that because I'm not a subscriber, but I'm seeing December 1st here on the official MLB page...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/details-of-mlb-mlbpa-labor-agreement-c210125462

[djoctagone]

reported here that the collective bargaining agreement expires 31 december. and that qualifying offers must be made soon after the world series.

Can't read that because I'm not a subscriber, but I'm seeing December 1st here on the official MLB page...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/details-of-mlb-mlbpa-labor-agreement-c210125462

tom haudricourt was the source. he's since corrected it.

[Jopal78]

I don’t think Garcia would accept a QO, but generally having a QO attached to a player hurts their value as a free agent because most teams lose a draft luck to sign such a player.

 

In Garcia’s case there are a litany of similar free agent to be outfielders that maybe are a shade less productive but won’t have a QO and may be cheaper to sign.

 

I’m sure his agent will tell him there’s a good chance his market may not develop which could lead to him considering any QO from the Brewers