Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[Jopal78]

I would not offer Avi more than 2 years. Too many questions about work ethic for a long contract.

 

 

Why would the Brewers offer him another contract at all? A small market team which aims to compete in their division year in and year out, necessarily means there will be a large amount of annual roster shuffling around a small core of players. A team can't emulate the Athletics and Rays then be reluctant to say good bye to good complementary players.

[Underachiever]

I would not offer Avi more than 2 years. Too many questions about work ethic for a long contract.

 

 

Why would the Brewers offer him another contract at all? A small market team which aims to compete in their division year in and year out, necessarily means there will be a large amount of annual roster shuffling around a small core of players. A team can't emulate the Athletics and Rays then be reluctant to say good bye to good complementary players.

Are you calling the guy who leads the Brewers in hits, homers, and rbis a complementary player?

[Jopal78]

I would not offer Avi more than 2 years. Too many questions about work ethic for a long contract.

 

 

Why would the Brewers offer him another contract at all? A small market team which aims to compete in their division year in and year out, necessarily means there will be a large amount of annual roster shuffling around a small core of players. A team can't emulate the Athletics and Rays then be reluctant to say good bye to good complementary players.

Are you calling the guy who leads the Brewers in hits, homers, and rbis a complementary player?

 

Yup.

 

He's a good player for sure, but he's having a career year as an .850 OPS corner outfielder, it's not really that unique.

[homer]

Are you calling the guy who leads the Brewers in hits, homers, and rbis a complementary player?

 

Yup.

 

He's a good player for sure, but he's having a career year as an .850 OPS corner outfielder, it's not really that unique.

 

Yeah the odds of him replicating this year's numbers going forward are not good, IMO.

[Greenleaf1]

If you take out 2020, Avi's average OPS between 2017 and now is .819, so I don't think he's outplaying his expectations by THAT much this year, combined with the physical transformation this year, I'd guess he still has a few more good years ahead of him.

 

I think money is the tough part here, as the Brewers have way too much financial commitment to the outfield as it is, and lots of guys getting raises in arbitration the next couple years.

 

If the Brewers can move some of the Bradley/Cain money for next year, I could see them looking to resign Garcia. If not, then I expect a Bradley/Taylor platoon in RF next year.

[monty57]

I would not offer Avi more than 2 years. Too many questions about work ethic for a long contract.

 

 

Why would the Brewers offer him another contract at all? A small market team which aims to compete in their division year in and year out, necessarily means there will be a large amount of annual roster shuffling around a small core of players. A team can't emulate the Athletics and Rays then be reluctant to say good bye to good complementary players.

Are you calling the guy who leads the Brewers in hits, homers, and rbis a complementary player?

 

He's getting $10M and will probably post a little over 3 fWAR for the season. Not bad, but not someone who is irreplaceable. At the start of the season, many fans hated the signing and wanted him gone. Meanwhile, we're moving into a period where the team will be in a financial crunch with all of the arby increases.

 

If Stearns could jettison Cain & JBJ's contracts and have Avi for another season at $10M, I'm sure he'd gladly do it. Since he can't, and we're likely stuck paying Cain, Yelich and JBJ $55M next year, with Burnes, Adames, Houser, Urias, and Tellez all entering arbitration, Woodruff hitting year 2, and Hader, Narvaez and Suter hitting year 3, I don't see the money to spend on good-but-not-great players like Garcia.

 

It's been fun cheering him on for the year, but the sides signed the deal they did for a reason. He is very likely going to be paid a $2M buyout and hit the free agent market, and I doubt we'll put much (if any) effort into pursuing him any further.

 

This is where it stinks to be a small market. We can't get too attached to players, and while it's disappointing to lose a guy like Garcia, if we allow ourselves to get too attached to "the names on the back of the jersey," it'll really hurt (emotionally) in the likely scenario that we trade away Hader this offseason, and Woodruff/Burnes after next year just because we know we can't afford them. We're looking at $71M guaranteed next year in five players (Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Wong and Peralta), and we have all the aforementioned arby guys.

 

Some players we all like are going to have to go, so Stearns is going to have to act like the Rays and trade away good players in their arby years if he wants to remain "continually competitive," and if he wants to keep the Brewers out of bankruptcy. The seasons some of our guys are having are fantastic to watch, but they're going to make the guys a lot of money in arby.

[sveumrules]

Cot's has the Brewers around 70 million in 2022 for Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Kolten & Freddy.

 

Arby's guys Burnes, Adames, Urias, Houser, Tellez (1st year) Woodruff (2nd year) Hader, Narvaez, Suter (3rd year) & Jace (4th year) made around 18 million in 2021 so they will see a signifigant bump on that figure in 2022.

 

Even if they raise Opening Day payroll from 99 million in 2021 to what would be a franchise record of 125 million in 2022, there still might not be much money for free agents without moving one of Cain/JBJ.

[pacopete4]

I think you may see more money spent in the next couple of seasons knowing this might be their best chance to ever accomplish the goal of winning a World Series. We may have the best arms we are ever going to have. I’m not saying spend $200 million just that you may see it being $125-$150 million payroll.

[wntrtxn21]

If you take out 2020, Avi's average OPS between 2017 and now is .819, so I don't think he's outplaying his expectations by THAT much this year, combined with the physical transformation this year, I'd guess he still has a few more good years ahead of him.

 

I think money is the tough part here, as the Brewers have way too much financial commitment to the outfield as it is, and lots of guys getting raises in arbitration the next couple years.

 

If the Brewers can move some of the Bradley/Cain money for next year, I could see them looking to resign Garcia. If not, then I expect a Bradley/Taylor platoon in RF next year.

 

If Garcia gets to the mutual option ABs, I don't see him turning it down and he will be the RF next year. Stearns is going to have to eat the JBJ signing. Maybe MA opens the checkbook up to sign one good FA, but don't count on it. I think Escobar and Anderson are gone and probably Pina too. There just isn't a whole lot of savings that can be had until 2023.

[SeaBass]

Why would the Brewers offer him another contract at all? A small market team which aims to compete in their division year in and year out, necessarily means there will be a large amount of annual roster shuffling around a small core of players. A team can't emulate the Athletics and Rays then be reluctant to say good bye to good complementary players.

Are you calling the guy who leads the Brewers in hits, homers, and rbis a complementary player?

 

Yup.

 

He's a good player for sure, but he's having a career year as an .850 OPS corner outfielder, it's not really that unique.

Absolutely. You move on from Garcia unless you can sign him to a team friendly deal, which is unlikely, and look for the next value guy similar to what Garcia was 2 years ago to take his place. This is Stearns' MO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you take out 2020, Avi's average OPS between 2017 and now is .819, so I don't think he's outplaying his expectations by THAT much this year, combined with the physical transformation this year, I'd guess he still has a few more good years ahead of him.

 

I think money is the tough part here, as the Brewers have way too much financial commitment to the outfield as it is, and lots of guys getting raises in arbitration the next couple years.

 

If the Brewers can move some of the Bradley/Cain money for next year, I could see them looking to resign Garcia. If not, then I expect a Bradley/Taylor platoon in RF next year.

 

If Garcia gets to the mutual option ABs, I don't see him turning it down and he will be the RF next year. Stearns is going to have to eat the JBJ signing. Maybe MA opens the checkbook up to sign one good FA, but don't count on it. I think Escobar and Anderson are gone and probably Pina too. There just isn't a whole lot of savings that can be had until 2023.

 

I can probably count on one hand how many times in MLB history both sides of a mutual option have been exercised, despite dozens of contracts including them signed every offseason. It seems to happen about once every 5-6 years or so, but mostly with role players on cheap deals.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Tyrone Taylor is on the team already so he will replace Garcia. What the Brewers really need to do is find somebody to replace Taylor's $250 or so PA's.

 

Since it's likely JBJ will be back with the team, ideally he'll just bounce back with the 750 OPS we expected this year and will be all right

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the emergence of Taylor as a capable reserve outfielder means that unless the Brewers are able to trade Cain or JBJ without paying most of their 2022 salaries, Avi will take his talents elsewhere next season via free agency.

 

I can also see the Brewers dealing an arm or two that is into arbitration this offseason to try and bolster other parts of their roster and save a bit on payroll, particularly if they want to make room for younger pre-arby guys like Ashby and Small - I'm thinking guys like Houser and/or Suter. I think the Brewers are committed to rolling with Hader and paying whatever arby salary he gets until he hits free agency, then making the in-season decision during his last arby year to either trade him at the deadline or if they are contending roll with him and take the comp pick after he leaves via free agency. On the one hand it would feel like they didn't get equal value in return, but the other hand is that the Brewers got 5-6 seasons of a top flight reliever in his prime contributing to their success without having to pay top dollar through his inevitable decline as he ages. At this stage in Hader's career I think it's equally as valuable not to be saddled with an extremely long-term, expensive contract with him.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

 

Apparently García gets buyout money after hitting the appropriate number of PA. $2 mil being the max.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Avi is up to an .853 OPS. Approaching the near star-level .886 he put up for the 2017 White Sox. I knew he was much better than what he showed last year, but he is exceeding my expectations.

[DHonks]

I think the emergence of Taylor as a capable reserve outfielder means that unless the Brewers are able to trade Cain or JBJ without paying most of their 2022 salaries, Avi will take his talents elsewhere next season via free agency.

 

I can also see the Brewers dealing an arm or two that is into arbitration this offseason to try and bolster other parts of their roster and save a bit on payroll, particularly if they want to make room for younger pre-arby guys like Ashby and Small - I'm thinking guys like Houser and/or Suter. I think the Brewers are committed to rolling with Hader and paying whatever arby salary he gets until he hits free agency, then making the in-season decision during his last arby year to either trade him at the deadline or if they are contending roll with him and take the comp pick after he leaves via free agency. On the one hand it would feel like they didn't get equal value in return, but the other hand is that the Brewers got 5-6 seasons of a top flight reliever in his prime contributing to their success without having to pay top dollar through his inevitable decline as he ages. At this stage in Hader's career I think it's equally as valuable not to be saddled with an extremely long-term, expensive contract with him.

 

 

I think our pitching depth is fantastic, but that's what we're built for. I don't see us dealing any of our arms unless a team blows us away. We have them all under control for several more years, and now isn't really the time to deal them. While Houser might have nice value, he fits wonderfully as our #4 starter. The only one that I'd probably consider moving is Lauer. I like the increased velocity and use of a cutter, but he really doesn't have a true out pitch. We could probably find a team willing to give us good value for him, but then again he's cheap and with another good year could really have value. Don't forget the initial struggles of Peralta and Burnes. There are no guarantees that Ashby will be great instantly next year. I've always been an advocate of breaking guys in via the pen so that they can work on attacking hitters and finding success before we put them into a rotation. Plus one final question....are the Brewers likely deploying a 6-man rotation next year? I'd think so. After this year's huge IP jump, I don't see them switching to every 5th day and giving everyone another 30+ innings. The time to deal Hader would be after next year, unless the team can work some magic.

 

Maybe I could see moving Suter, but what is his value? Do advanced metrics love him? He gets outs, he's a great clubhouse culture guy....but I think he has more value to us than to another team.

 

I think we'll keep all our pitchers except we'll let Anderson go (despite his very strong season). I think we'll try to make a run at Avi but will fall short. We'll probably try to acquire an OF for RF. They'll take a look at 1b, although we've been MacGuyvering some bargain level production there since Prince left. We'll try to find a 3b. But realistically, the Brewers are probably pretty comfortable with Urias, Adames, and Wong 3b-SS-2b, and Peterson being a key depth piece. I don't see any changes at catcher as well. This team is built for pitching and defense. I can see Hiura initially trying to rebuild value at AAA next year, with them possibly moving him all around to build value to help this team with versatility. Will he ever be good at LF, RF, 2b, 3b, or 1b? Probably not. But could he be serviceable for a few games at a time at each spot...yes if he finds his bat.

[AKCheesehead]

I believe Keston’s throwing arm automatically disqualifies him from 3b or RF. Possibly LF too for that matter.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/avisail-garcia-nearing-the-right-to-reach-free-agency-this-offseason.html

[pacopete4]

He's earned the right for a payday. He took control of his physical well-being and has an awesome year for us. Good for him. Get that money!

[PeaveyFury]

I think the thought of him getting a QO was picked apart recently, but I'd be somewhat astounded if the Brewers didn't offer since Avi will almost certainly decline.

[Jopal78]

I think the thought of him getting a QO was picked apart recently, but I'd be somewhat astounded if the Brewers didn't offer since Avi will almost certainly decline.

 

I was thinking the same thing, while it seems risky to make the QO with a 19 million dollar salary. There's almost zero chance he would accept because he's bound to get a larger guarantee from another club as a free agent.

[MrTPlush]

Only way they offer him that QO is if Attanasio pulls out the check book in the event he accepts. $20mil is a lot and Garcia is definitely a guy who could see a weak market due to his past inconsistencies. It isn't like if Garcia accepts we just shrug our shoulders because we have payroll to burn...$20mil would be crippling to offseason plans. This is especially problematic if we don't really care to have Garcia back. Which, in my opinion, is the case. I am betting they would rather shift the payroll elsewhere and pray for a JBJ bounce-back plus let Tyrone Taylor have a full time spot to play.

 

The chance of being saddled with $20mil in salary on a player we probably don't want to spend a bunch of money on is a huge risk for a team with a serious payroll crunch. That risk is not worth a single draft pick. If they knew that Garcia would turn in another .850+ OPS season next year they might consider it, but Garcia has done a pretty good job in his career showing he can't be counted on...especially in consecutive seasons.

 

For those reasons I would let him just walk.

[SeaBass]

The Brewers would already be on the line for $2 million, they likely gladly would take him at the current $12 million option if they could, is risking $7 million more on the chance he declines the QO really that far fetched?

[tmwiese55]

I'd agree with most here it's very unlikely he'd be back. However, just adding that in spite of the obvious glut next year causing the issue, that goes away in 2023 when Cain/JBJ are off the books. So just saying as long as the annual value isn't brutal a 2-3 year deal could make sense to have some stability past next year. Of course this would assume MA bites the bullet on high payroll next year since we're in 'go for it' mode. I guess I'm just saying it's a one year thing they might choose to eat it and then it goes away with close to 30 mil off, as well as losing the depth/players themselves so 2023 would have to remake the OF. Also, let's not forget how all of a sudden Yeli has been nagged by injury a lot too. Still, I'd expect them to try and find a different guy than Avi who's similar but younger/cheaper.

 

The JBJ contract really biting them here. I guess 'somewhat of a lesson to the spend money on something or you're cheap' crowd. Of course, how can you blame anyone for this kind of fall off for a multi year proven player like JBJ though.

[sveumrules]

The structure of the JBJ contract is so convoluted it might not be as much of a hindrance as it seems, at least for 2022. From Cot's...

 

21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

 

$3.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 14, 2022 and $3M on Jan. 13, 2023, and $166,667 on Jan. 12, 2023

 

$6.5M of player option would be deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2022, and $6.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

 

$6.5M buyout for 2022 would be payable $3M on Jan. 14, 2022, and $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2023, and $3.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

 

$8M buyout for 2023 would be payable $1M on Jan. 12, 2024, and $7M on Jan. 15, 2025

 

From the looks of that his salary for this season is only 3 million.

 

Assuming he picks up the 9.5 million option for 2022, his actual salary is still only 3 million with the deferrals.

 

I'm no accountant, but if I'm understanding correctly it looks like around 17 million of the 24 million guarantee will actually be paid out between 2023-25.