Madison Bumgarner to the Dbacks, 5-years/$85M

[sveumrules]

The Cain deal is by far dicier?

 

In his three seasons prior to free agency Lorenzo posted 12.5 fWAR/15.6 bWAR. He has already posted 7.2 fWAR/9.7 bWAR in the first two years of his deal.

 

Over the last three years MadBum has posted 6.2 fWAR/8.7 rWAR. The only advantage he has over Lorenzo is being two years younger when he signed his deal.

[young guns]

In total it looks like $1,290,000 (yes, that is one billion two hundred ninety million dollars) were spent on those 18 players, who have produced in the neighborhood of 105-132 WAR, with three years total left to go between Max & Lester.

Actually that's only 1 million 290 thousand. You're missing a few zeros.

[TJseven7]

Guys...please...as much as people hate me posting in every thread about the Brewers payroll etc. It gets just as annoying seeing people post how much these big money deals are going to be regrettable. None of us know that. Just because a player might be older, and gets a lot of money doesn't mean the contract will be regrettable. If Bumgarner wins a cy young in those 5 years and the Dbacks win a world series, will they rgret it?? I highly doubt it, even if his last 3 years are terrible. I wouldn't as a Brewers fan, I know that much.

 

I honestly think some of it is envy in that the Brewers will never make these kinds of signings so everyone hopes they turn out bad for the team that does sign them, so they can feel better about the Brewers NOT signing someone like this.

 

I tend to look at these things with no regard to the $$, because i honestly feel you have to. Think about it, who is MORE likely(of course no guarantees) to be a better pitcher over the next three years..Madison Bumgarner, Gerritt Cole and Stephen Strasburg, or Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom and Matt Lauer?? Who's numbers would benefit the Brewers more in all likelihood?? That's how I look at these things.

I'm curious what your house, car, and bank account look like.

 

Sense the YOLO is strong in him, you do?

[sveumrules]

In total it looks like $1,290,000 (yes, that is one billion two hundred ninety million dollars) were spent on those 18 players, who have produced in the neighborhood of 105-132 WAR, with three years total left to go between Max & Lester.

Actually that's only 1 million 290 thousand. You're missing a few zeros.

 

Haha, whoops. I often feel the same way about my pay checks.

[TJseven7]

 

Looking at the 2014 offseason here are all the contracts signed for at least 3 years & decent money, with how they turned out (so far in Max & Lester's cases)...

 

Max Scherzer | 7/210 | 32.5 fWAR, 34.7 rWAR | TEAM

Jon Lester | 6/155 | 16.8 fWAR, 17.9 rWAR | FAIR

Pablo Sandoval | 5/95 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR | PLAYER

Hanley Ramirez | 4/88 | 1.3 fWAR, 1.4 rWAR | PLAYER

Russell Martin | 5/82 | 12.5 fWAR, 8.4 bWAR | FAIR

James Shields | 4/75 | 0.8 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER

Victor Martinez 4/68 | -3.7 fWAR, -1.8 bWAR | PLAYER

Yasmany Tomas | 6/68 | -0.6 fWAR, -2.5 bWAR | PLAYER

Nelson Cruz | 4/57 | 15.7 fWAR, 17.0 bWAR | TEAM

Ervin Santana | 4/55 | 7.2 fWAR, 10.8 rWAR | FAIR

Chase Headley | 4/52 | 5.9 fWAR, 4.9 bWAR | PLAYER

Brandon McCarthy | 4/48 | 2.7 fWAR, 1.9 rWAR | PLAYER

David Robertson | 4/46 | 6.0 fWAR, 5.8 rWAR | FAIR

Nick Markakis | 4/44 | 5.8 fWAR, 6.6 bWAR | FAIR

Melky Cabrera | 3/42 | 2.2 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR | PLAYER

Francisco Liriano | 3/39 | 4.6 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR | PLAYER

Andrew Miller | 4/36 | 7.2 fWAR, 8.8 rWAR | TEAM

Billy Butler | 3/30 | -1.1 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR | PLAYER

 

By my count that's 18 deals with the team "winning" three, five more that were fair then the last ten being overpays of varying degrees.

 

In total it looks like $1,290,000 (yes, that is one billion two hundred ninety million dollars) were spent on those 18 players, who have produced in the neighborhood of 105-132 WAR, with three years total left to go between Max & Lester.

 

Assuming another 10 WAR for those last three Max & Lester seasons & you're looking at somewhere between 9.1 & 11.2 million per win.

 

You could almost say when it comes to free agency, it often pays to not spend.

 

I want to chime in to say that I REALLY appreciate when you go into numbers like this. Honestly, when anyone goes into a deep dive around here and take the time to put this banter into actual fact, it's highly appreciated.

 

I think the DS model has taken its hold on me and I'm very blah about this signing. I see 17/5 and go, "Well, we could add 3 arms for that price on 1 year deals and if proper roster flexibility is used we eliminate long term risk and can get the same (or better) results than just paying MadBum."

 

He's a good pitcher and even if he's dipped his numbers have still been good. If he can last 5 years and pitch 200 ip 3 of those 5 then good for them. We could get 400 similar innings from Anderson Linblom and a guy like Walker or Gio and have no risk beyond 2020.

[brewcrewdue80]

Was there ever a rumor the Brewers having an interest in Madbum? Was he a guy 2years ago I feel discussed trading for? I think in this instance MadBum has 0 interest playing in Milw. Stearns maybe learned that 2years ago.

 

The deal is a solid one I think. Good luck to him.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No one going to point that he said Matt Lauer?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No one going to point that he said Matt Lauer?

 

Well, Lauer has the free time now ...

[monty57]

On the surface this deal appears reasonable and one the brewers should have been on. It seems that people tend to think deals like this will not age well which is fair. That said given where the brewers are they have to do deals along these lines to get where they want to go. The cain deal is by far dicer and so far is right on track to be a disaster two years from now. It is what it is. When you can't develop pitching you have to buy it. Mad bum or Anderson give me mad bum all day.

 

 

Well yeah, that's why Bumgarner got a five-year deal for $85M and we got Anderson for peanuts.

 

I think that at this time next year we will have posters hoping we re-sign Anderson, and I think that at this time a few years from now Dbacks fans will wish they could find someone to take Bumgarner's contract off their hands.

 

Five years is a long time to risk on a pitcher going through his 30's. I don't think Stearns is the type that looks at contracts as a "win" if the player is good for a few years and bad for the final years. As a Brewer GM, I don't think he can risk having around 15% of his team payroll spent on a player who might be washed up for a few years of a contract. $17,000,000 to the Brewers (assuming a $120,000,000 payroll) is equivalent to around $30,000,000 to a team that can maxing out payroll at the luxury tax level, and it would be a tough hurdle for the Brewers to overcome, especially when they don't have a strong farm to fill the roster with league-minimum guys.

 

If you are going to spend 15% of your payroll on a player, you'd better be confident he's going to be a star for the length of the contract. Two, maybe three years on Bumgarner at this price would be something the Brewers could probably do. Five years probably scared them off.

[markedman5]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/28312289/three-reasons-madison-bumgarner-gamble-diamondbacks