SB stat question

[Getpaddled]

I know it was talked about before, but for the life of me I cant find it.

 

What % of SB have to be succesful before it can be considered worth while?

 

just the anwser is fine now. But if you have the data to back it up, I would like to see that also.

[rluzinski]

Break Even:

 

2 SB = 1 CS

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/linsb.gif

[Getpaddled]

First off, Thank you rluzinksi for the post

2nd....

 

66.7% is brake even. anything over is worth it, anything under is not. CORRECT?

 

thats what I go out of that.

 

also S-RC shouldn't AB be replaced with plate apperances?

 

also I want to take this one step further If I can.

How did you come up with the number for.

.47 1B ,78 2B etc.....

 

when you have time thanx.

[1992casey]

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also S-RC shouldn't AB be replaced with plate apperances?

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rluzinski will have a better answer, but when I've haphazardly messed with that with large samples, ABs seem to have worked better.

[rluzinski]

S-RC = Simple or Basic Runs Created. It's Bill Jamess first crack at a run predicter. It's form was:

 

Runs = [(Hits + BB) x Total Bases] / PA......(1)

 

Since:

 

OBP ~ (Hits + BB)/PA....(2)

 

SLG = Total Bases / AB....(3)

 

Subsituting (2) and (3) into (1) gives you:

 

Runs = OBP x SLG x AB

[rluzinski]

66.7% is brake even. anything over is worth it, anything under is not. CORRECT?

 

On average, correct. Obviously, there are situations where a SB is more valuable and where a caught stealing is more costly, so it's not a steadfast rule. Some players might boost their SB by stealing 3B with 2 out (not much value at all). Some players might only get caught stealing when trying for 2B with 2 outs (not as bad). I'm sure you could quantify actual value and costliness (is that a word) of a particular player's steals and find who adds teh most value to a team in the league. I just might have to look into that http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Batting Runs is just another linear weights formula (there are several but they are all very similiar), which is found by performing multiple linear regression on actual team data. While not perfect (again, all the numbers are for average situations) I like it because it's simple and straight foward. Here's a nice article on the subject:

 

Batting Runs and Linear Weights

[RedbirdRay]

Interesting articles on stolen bases:

 

Base Stealer Intangibles Part 1

 

Base Stealer Intangibles Part 2