OBP "skills"

[liveforoctober]

I thought this was worthy of discussion. I've seen multiple mentions of certain players having elite OBP 'skills'. At a glance, you get on base a few ways: hit, walk, error, hbp, etc. So what skill could someone possess that makes them 'elite' at getting on base beyond hitting?

 

Drawing walks is the obvious answer. But what particular skills does having good plate discipline entail? Eyesight for pitch recognition? Zen to calm nerves? Batting stance to alter strike zone? Intelligence to understand counts and pitcher tendencies?

 

Lorenzo Cain seems to beat out a fair amount of infield hits. A great break out of the box and home to first speed is certainly a skill that adds value.

 

Other random and maybe even silly skills can be a factor too I suppose. Eric Thames is comfortable wearing a big pad on his elbow while batting which allows him to wear inside pitches... you could argue effectively hitting with a pad on his arm is a skill that allows him more opportunities to get on base in other ways.

 

People on this board and pundits have used that phrase often enough "great on base skills" .. that it isn't just OBP (just hits & walks) they are talking about.

 

What other OBP skills are out there?

[CheezWizHed]

Sticking a heavily padded elbow out.

[Ennder]

Not hitting popups is one that is easy to miss. That was part of what hurt Weeks so bad is he popped up so much on top of all the strike outs.

[jerichoholicninja]

Some batters go up looking to swing the bat and get a hit. Others will take whatever the pitcher gives them, be that a swinging at a hittable pitch or taking four balls. I wouldn't say it's a skill so much as a mentality and probably something that is almost impossible for a player to make any significant change in as it's been engrained in them their whole life.

 

Arcia is clearly a guy who's only interested in swinging the bat. Swings at the first pitch a lot and swings at a lot of crappy pitches with less than 2 strikes.

Yelich is a great hitter but he has a real great approach too. If a pitcher groves a first pitch fastball, he's probably swinging. But if a pitcher nibbles, he'll take his walk.

[long ball]

On the surface a bb% over 10% is a good place to start. BABIP tends to fluctuate more than bb% so that's an important components to sustainably high OBPs.

 

Beyond that, I'd look for a high contact% on swings in the strike zone coupled with a low chase rate. This gives more context to the bb% as a player who isn't just passive, but is also aggressive at swinging at hittable pitches.

[stalton]

I do recall Weeks and Fielder getting plunked enough times that it made a difference.

[monty57]

I like Fangraphs' O-swing%/contact% and Z-swing%/contact% for plate discipline.

 

For their careers:

 

Arcia swings at 36.7% of pitches out of the strike zone, making contact 62.3% of the time. He swings at 70.3% of pitches in the zone, making contact 83.9% of the time. He swings at about half the pitches thrown.

 

Joey Votto (known for his plate discipline) only swings at 21.5% of pitches out of the strike zone (68.6% contact), and 68.7% of pitches in the zone (85.5% contact). He swings at 42.1% of pitches thrown.

 

Yelich is at 25.4%/60.4% and 64.9%/88.2%, swinging at 42.1% of pitches.

 

It's obviously harder to hit pitches out of the zone, so if you don't swing at them, you give yourself a better chance to do something good, whether that's making solid contact or taking a walk. Also, if you're ahead in the count, you can let pitches on the black go by and wait for "your pitch." Harder to do that when you're behind in the count.

[KeithStone53151]

BB/plate discipline are obviously huge. Elite hand/eye coordination and speed are also huge factors...these guys will tend to have higher avg as well, but simply being able to put a bat on a pitchers pitch and foul it off are huge factors in OBP success. The next pitch might be a meatball, or might be 6 inches off the plate for an easy take ball 4. Being able to foul off good pitches is definitely a skill, I would be shocked if at least some front offices don't have models that factor that in.

[sveumrules]

Speed is an interesting one because it obviously helps your OBP by getting those extra infield hits, but it also seems like often times "speed guys" end up having over agressive approaches and/or limited power, so any BABIP gains are cancelled out & more by the lack of walks and/or power.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it has alot to do with pitch recognition, which is a combination of physical skill to quickly identify rotation/pitcher wrist action at release along with having the "baseball sense" in understanding pitch sequences against you given the count, opposing pitcher's repertoire, and particular game situations. If a hitter limits the number of balls he swings at, he automatically increases his walk rate and reduces his weak contact % - which both help increase OBP.

 

And I agree with a couple posts above - it's tough to say whether there's a way to develop a skill of fouling off tough pitches vs weakly hitting them into play, or if it's just some hitters having a knack for it.

[Warning Track Power]

So my original post was going to go something like this:

 

Anyone else getting concerned about the Brewers OBP moving forward? Thames and Grandal specifically weren't world beaters with the AVG in 2019, .247 & .246 respectively, but their OBPs were .346 and .380. Even Moustakas was .254/.329.

 

However, after diving deeper into the statistics, I think the Brewers may have targeted good replacements. While solely focusing on AVG/OBP, the Brewers have essentially replaced the above bats with Garcia (.282/.332), Narvaez (.278/.353) and Urias (.223/.329). If Garcia and Narvaez essentially repeat what they did in 2019 in 2020, and Urias simply raises his AVG into the .260 range, the Brewers may not suffer any let down in terms of their offenses ability to get on base. Couple this with a splashier move to acquire a true 3B and move Urias to SS, thereby getting Orlando Arcia's (.223/.283) line out of the lineup, and the Brewers may have a better offense in 2020 than they did in 2019.

 

Bottom line, I like what I am seeing. Thames back as an option at 1B and a true 3B and this offense, with health, could be very dynamic and not overly reliant on the long ball.

[Oxy]

Speed is an interesting one because it obviously helps your OBP by getting those extra infield hits, but it also seems like often times "speed guys" end up having over agressive approaches and/or limited power, so any BABIP gains are cancelled out & more by the lack of walks and/or power.

 

Right. Pitchers are more likely to challenge guys w/o power (or more likely to pitch around guys w/power...same thing). One still needs a good eye to take those BBs, but it isn't ALWAYS just because a guy has a good eye. The pitcher plays a part as well by not throwing strikes.

[Dollarbill13]

Hitting foul balls