Brandon Belt?

[recte44]

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/mlb-rumors-brandon-belt-would-fit-brewers-according-rival-execs

 

What do we think?

 

 

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[Devinep]

Better off just bringing back Thames for cheaper and possibly more production. I don’t see SF trying to sell off bad contracts because they just took on Zac Cozart to “buy” an angels prospect

[adambr2]

Meh. Belt isn't a very exciting option especially at his salary. Unless the Giants are paying almost the entire contract or throwing in a heck of a sweetener to get us to take him, I'd rather just bring Thames back, platoon him with Braun at first while Braun shares OF duties as well.

[Eye Black]

He’s an okay player, but he’s also owed $34.4 million over the next two years (his age 32 and 33 seasons).

 

Unlike the Angels did when sending a top prospect to the Giants along with Zack Cosart, I don’t think the Giants are going to be willing to send prospects along with an overpriced player. Maybe there is someone else on their roster they would package?

 

Edit: If the Giants included someone like Reyes Moronta (which they probably wouldn’t), I would be much more into it.

[BrewBalls]

Not interested considering you can find similar production via free agency for significantly less.

[mattyo]

"Hey those dumb Brewers sure need a first basemen. Say, why don't they take this below average first basemen who's owed $35 mil over two years from a large market team? They should be jumping at the chance!"

 

Yeah, kick rocks.

[SRB]

I wouldn't dismiss Belt so easily. He had a very long stretch of being much better than any other 1B options we are likely to find this offseason, so if the front office thinks that his subpar 2019 was a fluke then he could be a good add. Obviously San Francisco would need to offset his salary somehow.

[clancyphile]

I could tolerate Brandon Belt in a deal like this:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18625/

 

Brewers get:

OF Hunter Bishop

OF Mike Yastrzemski

1B Brandon Belt

 

Giants get:

OF Tristan Lutz

SS Orlando Arcia

[Devinep]

I could tolerate Brandon Belt in a deal like this:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18625/

 

Brewers get:

OF Hunter Bishop

OF Mike Yastrzemski

1B Brandon Belt

 

Giants get:

OF Tristan Lutz

SS Orlando Arcia

 

What did Tristan lutz do to you? I think this is the 73rd proposal that involves trading him you’ve posted

[clancyphile]

I could tolerate Brandon Belt in a deal like this:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18625/

 

Brewers get:

OF Hunter Bishop

OF Mike Yastrzemski

1B Brandon Belt

 

Giants get:

OF Tristan Lutz

SS Orlando Arcia

 

What did Tristan lutz do to you? I think this is the 73rd proposal that involves trading him you’ve posted

 

He's a top prospect not named Brice Turang the Brewers can deal to maybe get a good return back for taking a bad contract.

 

In this case, the Brewers get Mike Yastrzemski and outfield prospect Hunter Bishop in addition to Belt.

[Eye Black]

I think the problem is the Giants are at the start of a rebuild and have plenty of money, so trading away one of their top prospects just to move Belt is not something they are likely willing to do (nor should they). The best bet to make it work would be the Giants basically giving him away for a Brewers’ fringe prospect and including a significant amount of money towards his salary. If they included $15-20 million in the deal then it seems somewhat more likely.

[82brewcrew82]

I could tolerate Brandon Belt in a deal like this:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18625/

 

Brewers get:

OF Hunter Bishop

OF Mike Yastrzemski

1B Brandon Belt

 

Giants get:

OF Tristan Lutz

SS Orlando Arcia

 

What did Tristan lutz do to you? I think this is the 73rd proposal that involves trading him you’ve posted

 

He's a top prospect not named Brice Turang the Brewers can deal to maybe get a good return back for taking a bad contract.

 

In this case, the Brewers get Mike Yastrzemski and outfield prospect Hunter Bishop in addition to Belt.

He's a top prospect in OUR system. He is not a top prospect in the GAME. He has more value to the Brewers as a breakout player than he does to any other team.

[RollieTime]

Lutz held his own in A+ as a 20 year old. He has some serious pop that hasn’t exactly shown up in games completely yet and he still has plenty of room to grow and develop. He also has a cannon for an arm in the outfield.

 

Lutz is one of those guys you hold onto and wait on because he’s so young and already showing pretty well in the minor leagues. He’s one of those breakout candidates that could shoot up prospect boards once it clicks for him.

 

I could see him having his breakout season this year, hitting .280 with 25 homers and finishing the year in AAA. He’s one of those special talents you don’t just give away.

 

I may be a little higher on Lutz than others, but don’t be surprised to see him in the top 100 prospect list by mid season 2020. He might even jump Turang.

[wntrtxn21]

I could tolerate Brandon Belt in a deal like this:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18625/

 

Brewers get:

OF Hunter Bishop

OF Mike Yastrzemski

1B Brandon Belt

 

Giants get:

OF Tristan Lutz

SS Orlando Arcia

 

NO thanks. Bishiop is so far away (low A) he is barely on the radar. Yas is a decent player as is Belt, but not at the $35M expense the Brewers would add. The Brewers could use the $17.5M to get a SP plus Thames. I'd rather see that money go to Tehren and Thames.

[reillymcshane]

At this point, Belt is really just not very good. He's a below average fielder and runner, and his bat is average (or even a bit below average).

 

And the cost - $34M or so - is really high.

 

The club would have to get most of the cost covered, and we'd still have to feel as if he can rebound at the plate. You can might think he could count on some boost for getting out of SF, but his career home/road splits show a higher OPS at home than on the road (although bigger HR numbers).

 

So unless the Crew really feel a rebound is in order, I'd pass.

[Ennder]

I think Belt has probably been hurt by his ballpark more than any other player in recent baseball history. So there is probably some sort of value to be had here. However his recent seasons have been marred by injuries and a decline in skills so I think the time to go after him as a bargain was probably 2 seasons ago, not today.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hmm. Interesting pull on my feelings. Belt has always been a favorable projection to do more than his stats ever show. And in that I was going to come in and say go get him. But I had to delve in to some recent numbers and injury history. The findings.

Last year he had an incredibly higher FB tendency and 22% Launch angle. The ML avg. Is just over 12%. A well below BABIP from his career numbers. Things that are big bounceback candidates. But then I seen his exit velocity was a full 1MPH below League Average, something I thought would be higher. Be interesting to see those numbers for the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Mostly because:

Injury. 2017 he finished the season on the IL due to a Concussion. We're talking from August and not returning back. His numbers have been down each of the last 2 seasons and one can wonder if that concussion injury has some to do with it.

I dont know how (on my phone currently) to find those statcast numbers MLB.com posts on a hitter for that season prior to the current season. If someone can pull up his 2017 and 2018 it'd be great to see and compare 2019 with. The exit velocity and launch angle if a bit different could conclude a fix in his swing returns him back to his better hitting days. .harder exit velocity resulting in higher BABIP and better BA than 2019.

If the improvement could be just a tinker in his swing, hes a great buy low candidate where feasibly Id ask for the Giants to kick in 12million on a swap with maybe sending a low prospect back.

If the statcast shows a big change in 2017 and similar 2018&2019 numbers then Id have to worry that the Concussion has left a permanent detriment on his hitting skills.

 

When it comes to Defense, Belt is better than Thames by a bit. He's not an OF which SF has had play a bit of..I think I seen 22starts last year. Probably on the effort to give Posey 1b time. So unless you looked at his position stats vs just overall season def rating you missed out on that.

Hes 11.+% BBs and below 23% I believe it was K Rate. So he could easily be a .275/360 low K batter in the lineup. And 2years is a good length for the current window. If the Giants are more in to a rebuild then paying a chunk of his salary should be simple to make the contract desirable.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ok. Found it on MLB Savant. 2015 you could say Belt was near Elite Exit velocity and a launch angle just above 15. The last 4 seasons have been 20% or higher. The exit velocity decreased. So with that said I think the regression is likely to continue and Id pass on him. Hed have to change 4seasons of his swing tendencies.

Good stuff though to figure out.

[clancyphile]

Ok. Found it on MLB Savant. 2015 you could say Belt was near Elite Exit velocity and a launch angle just above 15. The last 4 seasons have been 20% or higher. The exit velocity decreased. So with that said I think the regression is likely to continue and Id pass on him. Hed have to change 4seasons of his swing tendencies.

Good stuff though to figure out.

 

Per Baseball Reference Oracle Park's multi-year park factors are 94 hitting/95 pitching. The one-year factors for 2019 are 88 hitting, 90 pitching.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2019.shtml

 

Miller Park's are 101/101 for multi-year and 102/101 for one-year in 2019.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2019.shtml

 

Maybe just shifting home parks helps Belt to a degree as well.

[TURBO]

I hope this just goes away. I'd rather have Thames.

[LouisEly]

I hope this just goes away. I'd rather have Thames.

Or Mitch Moreland. Or Justin Smoak. Or Derek Dietrich. Any of those four will give you similar production at 1/3rd or less of the cost.

 

There is some credence to Belt doing better away from SF - last year his road OPS was .771 vs. home OPS of .709 (and he had a lot of road games at SD and LAD, also pitcher friendly-parks), but the splits were reversed in 2018 (home .819, road .695).

 

Unless SF is including a major sweetener, pass.