Brewers sign Brett Anderson to a one year deal

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1. J.A. Happ signed for $34 million over two seasons last year. He was so terrible in 2019 that the Yankees are looking to package him with a young asset simply to be out from under his contract. The Yankees!

 

2. James Shields signed a 4 year, $75 million deal with the Padres in 2015.

 

3. The Rockies gave Mike Hampton an 8-year, $121 million deal in 2000.

 

4. Barry Zito signed a 7-year, $126 million deal with the Giants in 2007.

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg. All big names, all horrible production. It happens more than you think.

[tigerbrew]

It's a very long season.

 

I think they're operating on the Sabathia model. They'll get an ace when they have proven to be a contender and only for the part of the season when his salary is most meaningful.

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison.

[brewerfan82]

It really amazes me how so many Brewer fans like and get excited about these "cheap" signings, and how they are "great value".

Most of us aren't looking at these moves as "the big move" or "final move" of the offseason. A team is more than the staff ace, or the starting five, or the 26-man roster, or even the 40-man roster. Signing a TOR arm would be great, but it does no good if the rest of the roster is awful and if you fill the rest of the roster with expensive, "proven", veterans you likely won't have the financial flexibility to sign a big name player and/or the talent depth to trade for one. These moves are important in order for them to have the ability to make the move you're waiting for IF the right opportunity arises. That opportunity could come today, it could come in a month, it could come at the trade deadline. I'm sorry that Stearns hasn't pushed all his chips in on the first day of the offseason for you, but he's shown to be very successful in navigating the offseason by being patient. Yelich, Cain, Grandal, Moustakas were all acquired mid-January or later the past two years. To expect DS to jump the gun and overpay for players earlier at this point seems unrealistic. If he follows suit and finds similar deals next month, this roster is going to look really nice *because* of all the acquisitions he's made so far.

 

Well, for one thing, they are cheap for a reason. Could they be good?? Sure they could be, and that would be fine. But when it doesn't work out, it will be disastrous. Not in terms of money(which to me is irrelevant, results are what matter), but in terms of results. Going on what we know now, and who will be in the rotation, what happens if/when 2 of 3 of Lindblom, Lauer and Anderson don't work out?? You are down to one reliable starter in Woodruff, and no real remedy to fix the disastrous results the other 3 gave you, as the hole they have dug you is likely too deep to get out of, even if it's fairly early. Look what happened last year in going with the 3 young arms to start the year. Burnes was an unmitigated disaster and so was Peralta in the rotation.

 

Don't forget Chacin! All those guys flopped and they still made the playoffs because of the depth of the organization heading into the season and Stearns' ability to add to that depth as the season went on (Gio, Lyles). Not to mention because they took a chance on 3 young arms they found a potential #1 in Woodruff. And that was with extremely limited remaining budget heading into the season. *IF* they don't add an expensive pitcher before the season starts, he'll have that much more flexibility to pick up players in-season as needed or to make a strong playoff push in the second half. It's a long baseball season and there is time to absorb some bumps along the way.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The Brewers are better at this than we are, and have more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

In reality, this is why the Brewers are better off giving themselves 6-8 viable starting options

 

These two things are really what it boils down to. Giving themselves multiples options and doing so through strong assessment of the available low cost options. So when the throw these darts, their calculations have them standing slightly closer to the board but with more darts to throw so to speak.

 

They could give themselves one really close throw to try and hit a bullseye by spending the entire budget on a proven ace. But that will be the one dart they can throw for say 3 or 4 years. What if even at close range, they miss?

 

Alternatively, they can do their homework, give themselves multiple, yearly shots at the board and use their analytics to improve the aim with those darts.

[areacodes]

I don’t know why we must always “settle” for mediocre Walmart shopping prices on pitching. It’s almost like people get even more excited about getting a guy for a million dollars than having a guy in the rotation with a proven pedigree. The allure of living in Las Vegas every night with your starting pitching isn’t as much fun to me as it is to some apparently. Oh my god somebody gave Zack Wheeler 118 million, that’s crazy! No it’s not crazy, that’s called paying for proven track record results. That’s why Adrian houser makes minimum salary with a small sample size of similar numbers.

 

Now please feel free to give the lecture on how we have limited money, a small market blah blah blah.

 

Walmart special Brett Anderson has a career FIP of 3.91

 

Proven track record Zack Wheeler has a career FIP of 3.71

[liveforoctober]

The last 3 years, We didn't win a WS, we didn't even make the world series. The Brewers have never won a WS.

 

Since we have been unsuccessful in winning a WS the last 3 years with this rotation makeup, wouldn't it make sense to do something different like improving the rotation?

 

There is no significant difference between making the World Series and not making in 2018 when evaluating player talent. They came one pitch away from making it. That means the talent was in place to make it. They don't need to change a thing. Also making the World Series being your only barometer for judging a team is just a really poor way to look at things.

 

I would like to see them sign one more solid non injury guy for sure to add depth.

 

It is not the only barometer, but it is a key barometer when we've an MVP player in our team. Winning the WS is a barometer and the key goal of Stearns and Mark A, I've heard them saying it.

 

The Marlins, Royals, Astros, Cards and even Cubs have won the WS, it would be nice for the Brewers to win it at least once.

 

As a Bucks fan, the key goal and barometer this season is to win the championship with our MVP player.

 

The NBA and MLB could not be more different in terms of having an MVP on your team and that making your team championship worthy. If you have an MVP on an NBA floor he can control AT LEAST half the game if he wants just by having the basketball in his hands. Yelich can go entire games without a defensive chance and teams can pitch around.. making his impact minimal if they choose to.

 

Trout is the best player we have seen in decades ... how good have the Angels been in recent memory?

 

Having an MVP caliber player on a MLB team is a great asset and helps the team avoid offensive slumps as drastic as we have been accustomed to around here... but teams that win World Series need a 30 man+ roster that contributes throughout a season.

[JimH5]

It's a very long season.

 

I think they're operating on the Sabathia model. They'll get an ace when they have proven to be a contender and only for the part of the season when his salary is most meaningful.

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison.

 

I agree. But they said they lost money last season. And whether that is true or some kind of accounting gimmick, it seems to be affecting how they're building this roster.

 

I think they can't/won't sign a top starter, and it doesn't make sense to have a great pitcher on a poor team, so I think they're going to wait until the trade deadline to see if they're competitive, and who is available in trade. That way, they can have a top end starter for the most important games of the year, and only be stuck with paying the high salary for August & September.

 

Just my guess.

[BrewBalls]

Because it's Woodruff, and then all a bunch of "flyers" in reality. They may work out fine, they may not. It really amazes me how so many Brewer fans like and get excited about these "cheap" signings, and how they are "great value". Well, for one thing, they are cheap for a reason. Could they be good?? Sure they could be, and that would be fine. But when it doesn't work out, it will be disastrous. Not in terms of money(which to me is irrelevant, results are what matter), but in terms of results. Going on what we know now, and who will be in the rotation, what happens if/when 2 of 3 of Lindblom, Lauer and Anderson don't work out?? You are down to one reliable starter in Woodruff, and no real remedy to fix the disastrous results the other 3 gave you, as the hole they have dug you is likely too deep to get out of, even if it's fairly early. Look what happened last year in going with the 3 young arms to start the year. Burnes was an unmitigated disaster and so was Peralta in the rotation.

 

It took an unprecedented late season run to get into the wild card game and even though the team had other problems, to me, the decision to go with those young guys in the rotation was a big reason they had to make a late season run.

 

The Brewers give themselves such a thin margin for error every year with putting a staff together, sure they may have decent depth if one or two guys go down, but you are just replacing them with another guy that's virtually the same pitcher and one who makes you hold your breath damn near every time he goes out there because you worry about them getting lit up.

 

I guess I don't really understand the organizational philosophy to essentially "ignore" pitching and focus so much on hitting. Yes, I love a team that can put up a lot of runs, that is always fun, but i also dislike having a staff in which you never know what you are going to get on a night in night out basis. One night you might get a gem from one of the castoffs, the next night one of them gets lit up, essentially negating the gem you got the night before.

 

I would like to see them have at least two top end guys who you pretty much know what you are going to get every night. Sure they will have bad nights, everyone does, but you know it's an anomaly as opposed to the norm.

 

Others in this thread have said it..at some point don't you HAVE to take pitching more seriously, and make a splash signing?? Especially with 3 more years of Yelich control. Yes, TOR guys are expensive, I get that, and maybe Mark A would have to raise payroll levels higher then he would like(even though their payroll COULD be higher, he just doesn't want it to be) for 3 years, sometimes you have to take chances to be successful, good business people like Mark A know that.

 

I will address each highlighted potion in order.

 

1. Lauer has produced decent numbers since being promoted posting a 4.40 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 261.2 IP and he did show improvement last season which is promising. These numbers are more than serviceable for a back of the rotation starter. Lindblom wasn’t terrible before going overseas and has since improved his repertoire and control which also bodes well for his future projections. Finally, Anderson is coming off a season where he produced like a solid #2 starter and has always put up good numbers when healthy. So he is the biggest question mark of the three imo but certainly not for his lack of production. So IF we have multiple issues in the rotation, I’m confident Stearns will find solutions just like he did last season by signing Gio, promoting Houser and trading for Lyles.

 

2. Being a small market team who is constantly spending more than every other team in similar markets does leave them with a thin line for error. Which is why Stearns makes calculated risks and doesn’t place the success of his franchise on the signings of a couple TOR pitchers who combined are on the field for less than half the games played. The alternative is to save some payroll space for trades or in season additions to make necessary adjustments on the fly because the season is long and anything can happen. So flexibility is crucial. Also rarely does any team have more than a few starting pitchers on “standby” which offer more than back of the rotation production. Hence why teams continuously overpay for free agent starters.

 

3. Based on how Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta and Chacin performed in 2018 I think it was necessary to allow all three of our young guns the opportunity in the rotation. Also based on how down the free agent market was last offseason there were still several options unsigned or available early in the season so my guess is Stearns knew he could make a move if needed which he did. And my guess is by adding more fire power to the lineup he was trying to alleviate the pressure on his young starters of needing to go out and lockdown opponents by giving them leads to regularly work with.

 

4. Every pitcher has good and bad starts. Even the elite have off games where they can get lit up. Considering a team only needs to win about 55% of their games to be a playoff contender I can live with pitchers who can throw gems every other night.

 

5. You are absolutely correct that successful business people need to take risks but those risks are always well calculated risks. Rarely will you see savvy investors making reckless and ill-advised expenditures. Every move is well thought out and based on analytics not reactive and rushed.

[Devinep]

It's a very long season.

 

I think they're operating on the Sabathia model. They'll get an ace when they have proven to be a contender and only for the part of the season when his salary is most meaningful.

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison.

 

I agree. But they said they lost money last season. And whether that is true or some kind of accounting gimmick, it seems to be affecting how they're building this roster.

 

I think they can't/won't sign a top starter, and it doesn't make sense to have a great pitcher on a poor team, so I think they're going to wait until the trade deadline to see if they're competitive, and who is available in trade. That way, they can have a top end starter for the most important games of the year, and only be stuck with paying the high salary for August & September.

 

Just my guess.

 

I don’t see them winning hear would be a bidding war for a top starting pitcher traded at the deadline. Not with this current farm system

[JosephC]

I'm not reading through the last 8 pages, so forgive me if this has already come up.

 

Brett Anderson is a ground-baller. That is really his only positive. While I've been all for bringing in a ground-ball pitcher....

Ryan Braun...will be terrible defensively at first

Keston Hiura...will be terrible defensively at second

Luis Urias or Orlando Arcia...while Arcia has the tools to be first rate, it's more than likely either of these guys will play below average defense at shortstop

3B...???

 

And then after the infield bungles a ground ball

Narvaez...may the the worst defensive catcher in baseball

 

Again, I've been all for bringing ground ball pitchers into Miller Park for the last couple of years, but now a ground-ball pitcher just doesn't seem like a good match with the hideous defense the Brewers are likely to sport on the infield.

[BrewBalls]

It's a very long season.

 

I think they're operating on the Sabathia model. They'll get an ace when they have proven to be a contender and only for the part of the season when his salary is most meaningful.

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison.

Did you feel fortunate in August 1st when the only players Stearns added were Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz who both were producing terrible results that season? Because I definitely wasn’t happy and left feeling slighted. Hindsight is always 20/20 but as Stearns and Counsell have proven time and time again, they have a knack for finding hidden gems and knowing how to get the most out of them.

[JimH5]

 

I don’t see them winning hear would be a bidding war for a top starting pitcher traded at the deadline. Not with this current farm system

 

Not with the farm as it currently looks, no. But Trent Grisham was seen as a failed draft pick by some at this time last year. So new guys could emerge between now and July.

 

And that's also true of guys on the major league roster. If Arcia hits, then they have a surplus of middle infielders. If they sign Avisail, then maybe the OF is crowded. I think they could package guys in July to land a big pitcher.

 

The thing is, when top end pitchers are making $1M per start, it might not make sense to buy 33 of those starts, but it could make sense to buy 12 or 15 of them. And the postseason starts are unpaid labor, so they could maximize their opportunity while minimizing their financial exposure.

[BrewBalls]

I'm not reading through the last 8 pages, so forgive me if this has already come up.

 

Brett Anderson is a ground-baller. That is really his only positive. While I've been all for bringing in a ground-ball pitcher....

Ryan Braun...will be terrible defensively at first

Keston Hiura...will be terrible defensively at second

Luis Urias or Orlando Arcia...while Arcia has the tools to be first rate, it's more than likely either of these guys will play below average defense at shortstop

3B...???

 

And then after the infield bungles a ground ball

Narvaez...may the the worst defensive catcher in baseball

 

Again, I've been all for bringing ground ball pitchers into Miller Park for the last couple of years, but now a ground-ball pitcher just doesn't seem like a good match with the hideous defense the Brewers are likely to sport on the infield.

The way Counsell utilizes shifting is a significant equalizer when it comes to infield defense. Speaking of ground-ball pitchers, many posters including myself are wanting Stearns to sign Dallas Kuechel (projected to sign for 3yrs/$40MM) who actually pitched worse than Anderson last season. So if we can add Anderson for a fraction of the cost for Kuechel how can any of us who wanted Keuchel complain with this move?

[liveforoctober]

I'm not reading through the last 8 pages, so forgive me if this has already come up.

 

Brett Anderson is a ground-baller. That is really his only positive. While I've been all for bringing in a ground-ball pitcher....

Ryan Braun...will be terrible defensively at first

Keston Hiura...will be terrible defensively at second

Luis Urias or Orlando Arcia...while Arcia has the tools to be first rate, it's more than likely either of these guys will play below average defense at shortstop

3B...???

 

And then after the infield bungles a ground ball

Narvaez...may the the worst defensive catcher in baseball

 

Again, I've been all for bringing ground ball pitchers into Miller Park for the last couple of years, but now a ground-ball pitcher just doesn't seem like a good match with the hideous defense the Brewers are likely to sport on the infield.

 

This seems like on odd take. We don't have a 1B or a 3B yet. Braun to 1st is only rumored at this point and if the Garcia signing happens there is probably good merit to it BUT I would say the only sure thing is that Hiura will be our 2B to start the year and one of Arcia or Urias will be our SS. To be down on the Anderson signing because you predict our infield defense (of which you don't know half of them) is going to be bad seems pessimistic for pessimistic's sake. If we trade for Seager and resign Thames is the Anderson signing now fine?

 

I like a lot of your material but this seems to be jumping the gun for no real reason other than to scared of what could be. We have more guys to acquire yet.

[3and2Fastball]

It is not a realistic plan to win a World Series without some top flight starting pitching. Under the current M.O. our only real hope as fans is for the Brewers to develop the type of starting pitchers who finish in the top ten of Cy Young voting... they’ll need 2-3 of them. Perhaps they can trade for pitching prospects next time they are sellers, and yes they could perhaps trade for an ace at the deadline, but realistically the best chance for a World Series parade is drafting & developing aces....

 

Maybe Stearns can pull off a trade similar to the previous Brewers trade for Greinke.

[liveforoctober]

It is not a realistic plan to win a World Series without some top flight starting pitching. Under the current M.O. our only real hope as fans is for the Brewers to develop the type of starting pitchers who finish in the top ten of Cy Young voting... they’ll need 2-3 of them. Perhaps they can trade for pitching prospects next time they are sellers, and yes they could perhaps trade for an ace at the deadline, but realistically the best chance for a World Series parade is drafting & developing aces....

 

Maybe Stearns can pull off a trade similar to the previous Brewers trade for Greinke.

 

I can't speak for Stearns but if I had to guess how the Brewers are going to operate under him it is going to be what you just said. 1) Never lock yourself into a potential crippling contract, especially in the rotation 2) Assemble a roster of competent and flexible players 3) When the deadline arrives and you are in position to make a run, acquire the necessary talent so your financial obligations are half a season only for those acquired and not a multi year hit that needs to be offered in FA.

[PeaveyFury]

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard..

 

Fortunate, or did our front office correctly identify a candidate to outpitch their "pedigree" due to some analytical/mechanical/technical change they were able to implement? Why, when the Brewers have an astoundingly good track record of doing so, do we continue to assume these things are flukey? And why can't a guy like Anderson be a pitcher they've similarly identified as a candidate to be the second coming of Wade Miley due to something they've found as well?

 

When it repeatedly happens over and over, maybe it isn't actually a fluke...

[SRB]

Crazy how much discussion there has been about how the Brewers need to add an ace starting pitcher, and yet not a single post that I've seen explaining how we could realistically do that.

 

I don't know if Stearns expects Anderson to pitch like Lyles down the stretch last season, but I think he has correctly evaluated that a deep rotation of average to above average starters who can keep you in the game and hand it over to a plus bullpen is an effective way for us to build a playoff caliber team.

[BrewBalls]

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard..

 

Fortunate, or did our front office correctly identify a candidate to outpitch their "pedigree" due to some analytical/mechanical/technical change they were able to implement? Why, when the Brewers have an astoundingly good track record of doing so, do we continue to assume these things are flukey? And why can't a guy like Anderson be a pitcher they've similarly identified as a candidate to be the second coming of Wade Miley due to something they've found as well?

 

When it repeatedly happens over and over, maybe it isn't actually a fluke...

Exactly!!! I believe some posters look at each transaction in a vacuum and fail to step back to connect the dots on the bigger picture. When it’s all said and done, Stearns always seems to be good at creating a team which out performs the sum of its parts which is a breathe of fresh air after dealing with DM for way too long.

[BrewBalls]

Crazy how much discussion there has been about how the Brewers need to add an ace starting pitcher, and yet not a single post that I've seen explaining how we could realistically do that.

 

I don't know if Stearns expects Anderson to pitch like Lyles down the stretch last season, but I think he has correctly evaluated that a deep rotation of average to above average starters who can keep you in the game and hand it over to a plus bullpen is an effective way for us to build a playoff caliber team.

Oh that’s easy. We were suppose to take all the money Stearns saved from his earlier moves and used it to sign Cole. Then use the remaining money to sign veterans coming off bad seasons to one year “prove it” deals. Duh!!!

[3and2Fastball]

Crazy how much discussion there has been about how the Brewers need to add an ace starting pitcher, and yet not a single post that I've seen explaining how we could realistically do that.

 

Trade Hader + Arcia... somebody like Dustin May from the Dodgers comes to mind as a potential ace in return for Hader....

[BrewBalls]

Crazy how much discussion there has been about how the Brewers need to add an ace starting pitcher, and yet not a single post that I've seen explaining how we could realistically do that.

 

Trade Hader + Arcia... somebody like Dustin May from the Dodgers comes to mind as a potential ace in return for Hader....

I get the possibility of trading for a future ace prospect but what has Dustin May shown which would make fans believe he can be our #1-2 starter in 2020 that Burnes hasn’t already shown in 2018?

[3and2Fastball]

In regards to Burnes vs May: why not have both? I have hope for Burnes as a bounce back candidate, however usually when a players goes from being lights out throughout most of their entire pro career to an 8 something ERA in both MLB & MiLB, there is something going on that fans are not privy to (arm issues, off the field issues).

 

May is 21, has 6 years of control, and has electric stuff...

[Ennder]

It is not a realistic plan to win a World Series without some top flight starting pitching

 

This isn't actually true though. Last year the Nationals won based on clutch hitting late in games, they were out pitched for most of the playoffs and kept coming back late in games. The year before Sale was ineffective and they relied heavily on the bullpen to save them though they at least had one SP with a great series in Price. The year before that the Astros slugged their way to a victory. The Cubs arguably were carried by pitching but the year before that was a Royals rotation that was pretty awful and it was all about the bullpen. Top flight starting pitching has not been what has been winning these World Series lately. It would be great if we developed/traded for a couple really good pitchers but it is completely realistic to win without them as well. That just isn't how the postseason is generally won in baseball these days. The teams with the best pitching haven't really done all that great in the playoffs in recent years.

[tigerbrew]

 

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard..

 

Fortunate, or did our front office correctly identify a candidate to outpitch their "pedigree" due to some analytical/mechanical/technical change they were able to implement? Why, when the Brewers have an astoundingly good track record of doing so, do we continue to assume these things are flukey? And why can't a guy like Anderson be a pitcher they've similarly identified as a candidate to be the second coming of Wade Miley due to something they've found as well?

 

When it repeatedly happens over and over, maybe it isn't actually a fluke...

 

I highly doubt that Stearns/front office expected Lyles to pitch like an Ace when they traded for him. At that time the rotation was decimated with injuries and he was just a stopgap trade, no one expected him to pitch the way he did which is why I said it is very fortunate.

 

If the Brewers had thought highly of Lyles, they wouldn't have let him go after the 2018 season. They were not willing to pay a cheap one year $2M+ to get him back for 2019.

 

And the Brewers not re-signing Lyles after last seasons Ace performance, shows that they think it is a fluke performance. 2 years $16M contract ($8M per year) is low even for a #2, but the Brewers were not willing to pay that.

 

Same with Miley, the Brewers did not re-sign him after the 2018 season shows that they think his performance is a fluke.