Brewers 2006 ZiIPS Projections

[rluzinski]

29 home runs for Carlos Lee? I thought that was far fetched ...or near fetched if you will.

 

He's hit 31, 31 and 32 HRs in the last 3 years. Any guess between 28 and 34 is as good as any. I suspect they took a tick off Lee's average to account for him creeping into decline years.

 

Do the projections take "contract years" into account? Haha, I know they don't , but if I were generating projections it would be a major factor.

 

All that contact years talk is a bunch of bologna. Just another theory that the media advances with absolutely no proof.

[1992casey]

Link to 2006 ZiPS Projections

[rluzinski]

A guy over at Baseball Think factory (check the notes from casey's link) used the ZiPS projections and Diamond Mind to simulate the entire season. Here are the results:

 High Low Team W L RF RA DIV WC DIV% WC% Made% Missed% Wins Wins American League East Boston 92 70 879 740 76 6 76% 6% 82% 18% 105 77 New York(A) 85 77 821 786 14 16 14% 16% 30% 70% 99 70 Toronto 83 79 748 740 9 14 9% 14% 23% 77% 99 65 Baltimore 73 89 733 809 1 1 1% 1% 2% 98% 89 54 Tampa Bay 70 92 711 827 1 0 1% 0% 1% 99% 85 59 Central Minnesota 86 76 719 674 38 9 38% 9% 47% 53% 100 70 Cleveland 84 79 775 732 23 7 23% 7% 30% 70% 102 70 Chicago(A) 82 80 746 727 20 4 20% 4% 24% 76% 103 68 Detroit 82 80 764 760 19 5 19% 5% 24% 76% 95 68 Kansas City 65 97 680 829 0 0 0% 0% 0% 100% 86 44 West Oakland 96 66 767 617 88 6 88% 6% 94% 6% 109 79 Los Angeles(A) 85 77 722 691 7 23 7% 23% 30% 70% 100 68 Texas 80 82 800 812 3 7 3% 7% 10% 90% 94 65 Seattle 79 83 710 750 2 5 2% 5% 7% 93% 94 60 National League East New York(N) 90 72 782 702 53 14 53% 14% 67% 33% 105 72 Philadelphia 89 73 751 676 38 22 38% 22% 60% 40% 105 75 Atlanta 81 81 736 734 8 8 8% 8% 16% 84% 94 68 Washington 75 87 683 735 2 0 2% 0% 2% 98% 89 59 Florida 70 92 645 737 0 1 0% 1% 1% 99% 86 57 Central St. Louis 96 66 768 628 79 10 79% 10% 89% 11% 109 82 Chicago(N) 85 77 735 696 8 15 8% 15% 23% 77% 100 72 Pittsburgh 82 80 711 707 8 9 8% 9% 17% 83% 96 65 Milwaukee 80 82 704 716 5 4 5% 4% 9% 91% 97 63 Houston 74 88 682 757 0 3 0% 3% 3% 97% 89 59 Cincinnati 69 93 760 870 0 1 0% 1% 1% 99% 85 53 West Los Angeles(N) 87 75 748 701 59 5 59% 5% 64% 36% 106 71 San Francisco 83 79 732 716 28 6 28% 6% 34% 66% 98 68 Arizona 77 85 729 771 7 1 7% 1% 8% 92% 95 63 Colorado 76 86 787 842 2 3 2% 3% 5% 95% 90 65 San Diego 75 88 675 718 5 1 5% 1% 6% 94% 94 61 

Not very exciting for the Brewers. Anyone have Diamond Mind that could check the roster the guy used to generate this? The roster file should be HERE.

 

I tried opening the data files in notepad but no dice. It wouldn't suprise me if he had the Brewer roster set a little goofy (like no platoon at 3B, for instance).

[1992casey]

Does anyone know what DMB 9.0 actually is? These are the only directions I seem to be able to find.

[rluzinski]

It's a baseball game/simulator.

 

LINK

[Ennder]

I've always found Zips to be pretty poor at judging pitchers. Its much stronger for hitters than for pitchers. I agree that expecting Davis to be over a 4 era after the strides he made with his K rate is unreasonable. I think Hall will regress big time though, his year just screams fluke last year.

 

Also when you look at Capuano you have to keep in mind his pickoff move, when you remove the pickoffs from his numbers his ERA goes down, the other issue with him is his stats took a steep decline at the end of the season. With another year under his belt IF he can stay strong the entire season I expect his numbers to improve naturally some.

[rluzinski]

I wouldn't trust the ZiPS projections for pitchers either. Pitchers are alot harder to project.