Brewers 2006 ZiIPS Projections

[rluzinski]

Were these posted anywhere?

 2006 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Jenkins* lf .281 .356 .490 147 563 83 158 39 2 25 93 55 139 1 0 Overbay* 1b .284 .375 .448 154 531 74 151 40 1 15 73 78 106 1 0 Branyan* 3b .251 .347 .499 117 355 52 89 20 1 22 64 50 128 3 2 Fielder* 1b .268 .352 .482 142 452 70 121 20 1 25 78 52 105 11 4 Lee lf .277 .336 .481 160 622 90 172 40 0 29 106 54 88 12 6 Weeks 2b .252 .350 .434 148 535 88 135 26 7 19 75 56 142 22 4 Cruz lf .258 .342 .457 123 403 65 104 23 0 19 60 42 124 12 6 Clark cf .291 .364 .414 141 498 69 145 26 1 11 56 44 51 10 11 Helms 3b .269 .340 .424 111 335 34 90 17 1 11 45 31 81 0 1 Hall ss .279 .325 .453 144 495 68 138 33 4 15 67 35 112 14 8 Hart rf .261 .324 .450 134 467 80 122 25 6 17 67 42 102 20 9 Hardy ss .253 .329 .403 112 340 45 86 19 1 10 47 39 44 0 0 Magruder# lf .253 .319 .386 111 277 33 70 15 2 6 33 20 57 5 3 Miller c .248 .318 .384 112 375 39 93 22 1 9 45 37 89 0 1 Gemoll* 1b .263 .315 .385 123 418 48 110 23 2 8 49 30 107 3 4 Nelson* 1b .238 .308 .384 138 487 66 116 22 2 15 63 47 140 8 3 Dallimore 2b .264 .322 .358 113 405 56 107 21 1 5 41 28 53 5 5 Erickson* 2b .256 .343 .329 103 313 35 80 18 1 1 26 33 56 10 8 Johnson* c .226 .332 .335 76 221 27 50 13 1 3 23 34 35 1 2 Durrington 2b .252 .327 .339 121 345 55 87 14 2 4 32 35 71 22 12 Abernathy 2b .253 .313 .365 101 348 54 88 19 1 6 39 28 36 11 9 Cirillo 3b .233 .318 .342 74 193 23 45 12 0 3 20 21 24 2 2 Rivera c .235 .279 .397 67 234 27 55 9 1 9 32 11 53 1 1 Rottino 1b .256 .298 .358 137 497 60 127 19 4 8 55 29 78 2 2 Cruz 3b .244 .292 .377 139 472 60 115 23 2 12 51 30 118 5 5 Scarborough ss .226 .290 .353 127 394 42 89 25 2 7 42 32 100 3 4 Krynzel* cf .225 .286 .346 113 408 59 92 17 4 8 42 30 130 14 7 Sorensen# 2b .248 .311 .314 106 347 56 86 13 2 2 31 33 69 9 8 Moeller c .217 .274 .345 83 258 24 56 13 1 6 27 19 56 0 1 Gwynn* cf .234 .309 .291 138 512 76 120 17 3 2 38 51 91 31 15 Knox cf .233 .289 .318 114 374 47 87 18 1 4 30 26 83 21 11 Crabbe# 2b .220 .289 .284 127 437 52 96 14 4 2 32 39 70 18 7 Borders c .212 .247 .297 72 222 20 47 10 0 3 22 8 56 1 1 Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K Sheets 15 8 3.27 29 29 198.0 180 72 23 32 191 Wise 4 3 3.46 44 2 65.0 53 25 6 23 61 Turnbow 5 3 3.65 59 0 74.0 60 30 7 31 79 Davis 4 3 4.14 50 0 63.0 54 29 7 31 66 Phelps* 2 1 4.22 30 5 49.0 49 23 4 18 36 Davis* 11 12 4.26 34 34 203.0 189 96 21 85 175 Capellan 5 6 4.32 58 8 102.0 99 49 7 46 84 Ohka 9 10 4.45 30 28 168.0 181 83 20 45 95 Gamble 3 4 4.50 22 8 66.0 70 33 7 22 41 Eveland* 7 9 4.53 37 19 141.0 152 71 14 46 94 Capuano* 12 13 4.55 32 31 182.0 176 92 24 73 153 Adams 3 4 4.57 47 1 67.0 65 34 9 28 65 Hendrickson 8 11 4.71 28 27 149.0 159 78 19 49 106 Lehr 5 7 4.76 52 7 102.0 106 54 12 41 72 Saenz 5 6 4.87 15 15 85.0 84 46 17 28 80 Helling 6 9 4.91 32 25 152.0 158 83 22 58 111 Bennett 2 3 4.94 54 0 62.0 64 34 10 24 48 Obermueller 6 9 5.07 31 23 158.0 174 89 19 64 89 de la Rosa* 3 6 5.26 41 2 53.0 54 31 4 35 46 Wolfe 3 5 5.34 36 3 64.0 71 38 8 27 34 Woolard 6 10 5.35 30 23 143.0 159 85 19 63 92 Fernandez 5 12 5.51 31 25 165.0 190 101 28 55 73 Diggins 1 2 5.63 10 5 32.0 32 20 2 23 20 Zumwalt 2 5 5.68 41 0 65.0 68 41 9 39 47 Costello* 6 12 5.86 32 23 132.0 150 86 23 63 85 Jones 1 4 6.14 6 6 22.0 22 15 1 20 14 Pratt* 3 7 6.20 34 16 103.0 101 71 17 79 100 Weibl 2 5 6.35 30 8 78.0 91 55 16 39 50 Habel* 5 12 6.39 31 20 124.0 146 88 31 53 85 Sarfate 5 14 6.42 27 25 129.0 143 92 23 83 93 Housman* 4 12 6.47 28 24 128.0 143 92 29 69 104 Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. 

[huntsvillefan]

It would be interesting to see their 2005 projections, just to see how close they actually were to reality.

[RobertR]

I'd certainly be happy with that projection for Prince Fielder as a rookie. Toss in 100 more ABs, and we could be looking at 30 HRs in 2006 from first base.

 

Robert

[reillymcshane]

I wonder why Hardy only gets 340 ABs. Any clue? Do they just not expect him to play? Just curious.

[bball123h2]

Interesting find, although I'm not sure he'll actually steal 11 bases.

[strawbossisevil]

Funny to see Eveland in front of Capuano in ERA as well.

[RobertR]

I suspect that Hardy's projected ABs are down due to his missed 2004 season.

 

BTW, 2005 projections can be found at

 

www.baseballthinkfactory....PSPlus.xls

 

Robert

[rluzinski]

I wonder why Hardy only gets 340 ABs.

 

Read the disclaimer at the end of the ZiPS projections.

[JohnBriggs12]

Any service making projections that still thinks Jenkins plays LF and Scarborough, Magruder, Borders, Durrington et al are still Brewer property isn't doing its homework.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I meant to post these but didn't get to it. Thanks, rluz. I use these every year to project w-l records, mostly because they're free and reasonably accurate...last years' numbers led to a predicted 77 wins IIRC, so they're close even though no projection system will ever be perfect.

 

As for JBriggs' point, they sort the projections by teams, and typically include players with their previous teams until they end up somewhere else...thus Helms for example is listed here, though there's likely zero chance he's a Brewer in 2006. They actually stay on top of things, and reported the Brewers' signings of Abernathy et al. recently...lots of posters at Primer have commented very favorably about the Brewers as a sleeper wild card contender, and a team on the rise.

 

Jenkins in LF is obviously a goof but hardly one I'd lose sleep over.

 

As noted, the system does not attempt to predict playing time, as should be clear from the fact that Overbay and Fielder combine for almost 200 games played.

[gregmag]

Not meaning to start a fight or anything, but those numbers make the distance between Lee and Cruz look pretty slight -- next year. Fortunately we have some time to see how Cruz and Hart shake out, but I can sure think of some uses for a giant trading chip and $8 million.

 

Hardy's and Weeks' numbers probably understate their true potential, assuming they're both healthy, because injuries (or injury recovery, in JJ's case) appear to have dragged both guys down for a good chunk of last season.

 

Greg.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Yep. And lest you think the system is unable to predict, here are a few ERA projections from last year:

 

 Pitcher projected actual Sheets 3.19 3.33 Davis 4.10 3.84 Santos 4.47 4.57 Hendrickson 3.95 n/a Capuano 4.08 3.99 Adams 4.15 2.7 Lehr 4.50 3.89 Bennett 5.04 n/a Wise 3.84 3.36 Obermeuller 5.29 5.26 delaRosa 4.46 4.46 Glover 5.40 5.57

[DHonks]

SoCal, if that's the case, then we should just let Helling, Eveland, or Hendrickson man the 5th spot and not pursue a free agent.

[SoCalBrewfan]

And some batters...

 

 Batter&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActBA&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActOBP&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActSLG&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjBA&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjOBP&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjSLG Damian Miller&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.273&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.34&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.413&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.249&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.321&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.387 *Lyle Overbay&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.276&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.449&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.299&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.379&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.465 Rickie Weeks&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.239&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.333&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.394&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.244&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.317&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.375 *Russ Branyan&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.257&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.378&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.49&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.251&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.342&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.494 J.J. Hardy&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.247&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.327&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.384&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.252&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.347&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.397 Carlos Lee&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.265&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.324&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.487&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.29&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.355&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.487 Brady Clark&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.306&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.372&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.426&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.271&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.359&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.389 *Geoff Jenkins&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.292&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.375&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.513&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.273&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.341&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.484 *Prince Fielder&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.288&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.306&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.458&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.268&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.344&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.446 Bill Hall&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.291&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.342&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.495&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.251&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.296&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367 Chad Moeller&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.206&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.257&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.236&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.303&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.355 Junior Spivey&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.236&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.308&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.374&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.272&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.359&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.433 Wes Helms&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.298&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.356&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.458&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.262&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.333&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.417 #Chris Magruder&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.203&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.265&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.312&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.255&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.313&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.383

[SoCalBrewfan]

Argh, obviously I need help making pretty tables.

[rluzinski]

All fixed:

 Pitcher projected actual Sheets 3.19 3.33 Davis 4.10 3.84 Santos 4.47 4.57 Hendrickson 3.95 n/a Capuano 4.08 3.99 Adams 4.15 2.7 Lehr 4.50 3.89 Bennett 5.04 n/a Wise 3.84 3.36 Obermeuller 5.29 5.26 delaRosa 4.46 4.46 Glover 5.40 5.57 

 

How do you predict win/lose record? I assume using the pythagorean. Runs against is easy using ERA but what about runs scored? Just AB*OBP*SLG? I get around 800 runs scored, which would be a nice improvement from last year.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks...what's the secret? I pasted from excel but it didn't keep the column widths fixed...is word better?

 

I used the ERA numbers and then added unearned runs based on the Brewers' ratio from the last year or two. For runs scored, I used OXS*AB, and also a slightly fancier version of Runs Created, including SB, CS, HBP etc., and averaged the two (they differed by about 30 runs). (Getting the runs right was hard because of all the pitchers' numbers etc...I tweaked the numbers a bunch of times to keep the number of outs about the same in 2005 as they had been in 2004.)

 

For last year I got 736 RS, 771 RA, and a 77 win season. The actual runs was close at 726, but I was way off on the pitching. (I actually didn't believe some of the ZiPS numbers, e.g. Hendrickson and Capuano, so bumped their runs allowed assumed a good number of innings by replacement level pitchers...also I didn't guess Turnbow's performance or the addition of Ohka of course.)

[SoCalBrewfan]

SoCal, if that's the case, then we should just let Helling, Eveland, or Hendrickson man the 5th spot and not pursue a free agent.

 

Yeah, the projections suggest that the 5th spot would be ok in the hands of those guys. At the same time, they're bearish on Capuano and Ohka. I don't know what to make of it...they were pretty spot on in some cases last year, but seem more pessimistic this offseason. Historically I think the bullpen projections as well as those for minor leaguers have been sketchy...which makes sense in the former case given how few innings relievers throw.

 

The author of the ZiPS projections actually adjusts for Leo Mazzone, in that he's historically found his projections underestimated Braves pitchers. Maybe we need a Maddux factor as well. (They also consider DIPS and the team defense, for those who care.)

[Ennder]

I've never been a big fan of ZiPs. It does an ok job of predicting established players but its usually pretty bad about judging rookies and second year players. I find Pecota is better at that but it of course costs money which is a big downside.

 

That being said I'd be very surprised if Hardy and Weeks didn't beat their projections and I think its Capuano prediction is criminal. Yes his WHIP was a tad high last year but when you remove the guys picked off and sort of fudge the last month when all first full year pitchers tend to do poorly I think he's a 4 ERA pitcher, lower than 4 if he improves at all.

[dadofandrew]

I find it hard to believe ZIPS doesn't look a bit more at Hardy's last 4 months. I kind of think 300+ AB's is a bit of a pattern to follow.

[rluzinski]

That being said I'd be very surprised if Hardy and Weeks didn't beat their projections and I think its Capuano prediction is criminal.

 

I'm with ya for Weeks and Hardy, but there's some bad numbers pointing to 2005 being flukish for Capuano. His FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching, which takes into account only walks, Ks and HRs) was 4.65 (right at his prediction). His improvement in ERA was largely a result of a decrease in HRs (fluctuates alot for many pitchers) andBABIP being lower in 2005 than 2004, but that fluctutes a bunch for pitchers as well.

 

I like Cappy but people shouldn't be suprised if his ERA is closer to 4.5 than 4.0 next year.

[Southwest Brewer]

I can see what you mean w/ Cap. He was kind of "lucky" in some games.

 

Shouldn't Davis be expected to win a few more considering he pitched well and had the opposite "luck" as Cap last year?

[Beast Light]

Any ZIPS on Gross, and Dave Bush??

 

I don't buy any of them, I am just curious. I think that they underestimated Hall and Davis ...I just think they are way off for everyone.

 

What do these projections take into account? Do they take age, improvement, injuries ...and yada yada yada into account? Or are they purely statistical? Or are stats relating to all the yada, yada, yada, incorporated into actual statistical performances to generate the projections? Or do 3 fat guys get drunk and whip them up?

[rluzinski]

Do they take age, improvement, injuries ...and yada yada yada into account? Or are they purely statistical?

 

Well, those two options aren't mutually exclusive, obviously.

 

age: yes

 

improvements: I don't follow. Like most projection systems, I assume it takes a weighted average of the last 2 or 3 years, weighing recent years more heavily.

 

injuries: If you mean injuries cutting into playing time and therefore counting stats, yes. See the "playing time" discaimer at the bottom of the list. If you mean injuries diminishing a player's abilites, no.It would be so subjective that it would make the projections worthless.

 

I think that they underestimated Hall and Davis ...I just think they are way off for everyone.

 

Way off for everyone? I find it hard to believe that you trully believe that http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Davis: The ERA seems a bit high. I'd think he'll be about 4.0 ERA.

 

Hall: I think people expecting a OPS at or above his 2005 campaign is going to be disappointed. As a young player who had a very nice 2005, I'm certainly not saying it's not possible; it's just not likely.. When a guy has a breakout year, there's usually a little regression that occurs the following year. It's called the sophmore slump... ask Pods about it.

[Beast Light]

Quote:

---

Way off for everyone? I find it hard to believe that you trully believe that

---

 

I didn't really mean EVERYONE. But many of the projections seem off base. 29 home runs for Carlos Lee? I thought that was far fetched ...or near fetched if you will.

 

Do the projections take "contract years" into account? Haha, I know they don't , but if I were generating projections it would be a major factor.