Rendon to Angels - 7 yrs / $245 mil

[adambr2]

7/200 on an extension for Yelich sounds pretty close. He's younger and more valuable than Rendon, but 3 years out from free agency you're obviously expecting a discount. So whether Yelich would want to extend this far out or whether the Brewers would want to extend this far out remains to be seen.

 

He did that once. Can't see him, now established as 10x the player and watching guys get paid, doing it again.

 

Sure, maybe that's his goal. But if he suffers a career ending injury in the next 3 years or starts hitting a wall at 30 and becomes the very good but not elite player he used to be, that possibility is gone. Maybe he'd rather lock down $200M now 3 years out and never worry about a financial thing again or where he's going to play next. Who knows, every player is different.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That he's from Thousand Oaks and has already made whatever he's made, makes me think he'd be inclined to go for the monster deal and doesn't really need the sure thing.

[pacopete4]

Rendon, Strasburg, and Cole all have deals that put their yearly salary above what the Brewers make from their TV deal. If that doesn’t tell ya something, I don’t know what to say.

[adambr2]

That he's from Thousand Oaks and has already made whatever he's made, makes me think he'd be inclined to go for the monster deal and doesn't really need the sure thing.

 

Well, 200M is a pretty big sure thing. It's quite a bit different than his first deal. But you may be right. We will probably find out as there will certainly be a lot more chatter about it in the near future.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Between Cole, Strasburg and Rendon, Scott Boras has gotten about a BILLION DOLLARS for his clients this week.

[Jaylyn]

Hey, the Angels finally got some real help for Trout!

[clancyphile]

Thinking any offer to Yelich at this point would need to be near a 7/$200M extension. He’s still owed $41M over the next 3 years.

 

In all honesty, that won't get it done.

 

At this point, it might be better to trade him either now, or next season.

 

Just can't see us handing out a 245 million contract...………………………………………………..EVER!

 

Yelich is all but gone after this contract. That is why now was the time for us to spend the money and provide additional support that would hopefully get us a World Series. Similar to how the Packers were always a key piece away that prevented them from winning additional Super Bowls while they had Fabre and Rodgers. They team is competitive, so it brings out the fans, but eventually these solo superstars can’t carry the team the entire season.

 

I’m in the same boat, if we are going cheap mode (and I’m not saying we are), I’d rather trade Yelich now and hopefully make a strong run in another 4-5 years than just be competitive but not really have a real chance for the next two years.

 

Three years is a long time... and a lot can still happen in the offseason.

 

Milwaukee can't afford to sign free agents to 7-year, $245 million deals. Even with deferred money, if the deal goes south, it cripples the team.

 

The way they get the star players is:

1. Develop them.

2. Trade for them.

 

In the case of Yelich, whose current contract goes through age 30, there is always the option of the qualifying offer. Maybe he takes it, and gives the Crew one more year.

 

The other option is that he agrees to something like 2 years, $60 million - allowing him a second free-agent bite at the apple after his age 32 season. High AAV, but extends the Crew's window.

 

Or, if Milwaukee is lucky, he decides to be a Brewer for the rest of his career and signs a five-year deal for $135 million (figure $10 million bonus - split between the 2021 and 2022 seasons with $25 million deferred and paid out over ten years). With the risk on that side.

[Eye Black]

This is admittedly meaningless, but in Rendon’s final season of this deal he will be a year younger than Aramis Ramirez was entering his final season under contract with the Brewers.

[TJseven7]

Trading Yelich now is really insane and speaks to how far the team has come. Had he not been hurt, we don't know how far they go, but they're off back-to-back playoff seasons. Yet we have to trade him now to...rebuild? It's been a good team for 3 years, there's no reason to think they can't compete with Yelich and the same methodology next year.

 

The time to trade him is 2 years away if ever. They weren't a superstar away from competing in 2018, and the 2019 champ barely squeaked past them. I like Rendon, think the contract is ok relatively speaking, but we can do this without those contracts.

 

MKE gave up a lot to get Yelich on his cost controlled contract. They are getting their capital's worth out of him. Just enjoy the ride. I'm all for trading guys at the right time and getting value out of them but usually those guys are players who have an inflated perception and are replaceable. MKE can not replace Yelich. Enjoy the ride and when he's a FA and MKE loses him. It was a hell of a ride. Time to look for the next one.

 

Hiura is up, Braun expires next year, team has money to spend. Enjoy the 3 year window and operate around Yelich as you typically would. He's the feather in the cap MKE usually doesn't have. There's no reason to press. There's no reason to all in. DS needs to build the team he'd typically build and know that he has a huge boost for 5 years. (3 more)

[RollieTime]

My dream of Rendon in our lineup with Hiura and Yelich has ended. What a sad sad day.

 

I think Rendon will be one of the few massive contracts that works out well for the entirety of the contract. He can flat out hit and I see a guy like him aging well into his mid thirties.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don’t know the Dude is also very injury prone.

[MrTPlush]

Not to fly off topic, but I think the Brewers could dish out a 7/$200mil contract to Yelich (or such a contract in 2023) if they wanted...that would probably be about as high they could reasonably go though and I think deferrals would be needed.

 

That would be about $29mil annually. Defer the same percentage as the Braun contract ($34mil deferred then) and that drops it about $5mil annually and a ten year repayment is about $3.5mil a year after that.

 

Not saying I would do it (I would not), but I think it would have a similar impact on the payroll as Braun's did/does.

[StearnsFTW]

I think the 7/200 being thrown around is about 100 short.

[adambr2]

I think the 7/200 being thrown around is about 100 short.

 

You don't pay full market value 3 years out from free agency. 7/300 might be a realistic extension for him 3 years from now but you'd never commit to that full amount this early.

[jerichoholicninja]

I haven't heard the word collusion brought up recently.

[Thurston Fluff]

Thinking any offer to Yelich at this point would need to be near a 7/$200M extension. He’s still owed $41M over the next 3 years.

 

In all honesty, that won't get it done.

 

At this point, it might be better to trade him either now, or next season.

 

Just can't see us handing out a 245 million contract...………………………………………………..EVER!

 

Yelich is all but gone after this contract. That is why now was the time for us to spend the money and provide additional support that would hopefully get us a World Series. Similar to how the Packers were always a key piece away that prevented them from winning additional Super Bowls while they had Fabre and Rodgers. They team is competitive, so it brings out the fans, but eventually these solo superstars can’t carry the team the entire season.

 

I’m in the same boat, if we are going cheap mode (and I’m not saying we are), I’d rather trade Yelich now and hopefully make a strong run in another 4-5 years than just be competitive but not really have a real chance for the next two years.

 

A team that still has it's core players from two consecutive playoff teams are more than competitive. They are already contenders.

[Ennder]

 

A team that still has it's core players from two consecutive playoff teams are more than competitive. They are already contenders.

 

Yeah I always find it hard to understand. This team was 1 AB away from a World Series just 2 years ago. They lost by one bad pitch against the World Series winning team last year. The Packers under Rodgers had 2 completely winnable championship games with the talent they put on the field not to mention some other tough losses. Winning it all is hard, just having the talent to do it isn't enough. Nobody should be down on what the Brewers have done in recent seasons and until the past 2 years years nobody should be down by what the Packers had done. Only 1 team wins it all each year, even if you are always one of the top 10 teams in the game you aren't winning it all on a regular basis.

[RollieTime]

I mentioned this in another thread, but feel like it needs to be mentioned here as well.

 

It was just mentioned on Hot Stove by Richard Justice of MLB.com this morning that “there was gossip in the lobby” of the Winter Meetings that the Brewers were going to come away with one of the big third baseman (notably Rendon or possibly Donaldson). They said the Brewers “obviously they did not get Rendon” and it looks like they aren’t going to get Donaldson either with the multiple teams making strong pushes for him, but Stearns should have Brewers fan’s trust by now with his track record of success.

 

I think the Brewers being linked to Rendon and how there was a lot of talk of the Brewers getting a big name guy like him shows exactly how the Brewers are viewing this window and that they absolutely are not going to sit on their hands and cut payroll.

 

I’m absolutely stoked to hear that they were seriously involved in Rendon talks and that others involved actually felt that the Brewers has a real shot of coming away with him.

[monty57]

I mentioned this in another thread, but feel like it needs to be mentioned here as well.

 

It was just mentioned on Hot Stove by Richard Justice of MLB.com this morning that “there was gossip in the lobby” of the Winter Meetings that the Brewers were going to come away with one of the big third baseman (notably Rendon or possibly Donaldson). They said the Brewers “obviously they did not get Rendon” and it looks like they aren’t going to get Donaldson either with the multiple teams making strong pushes for him, but Stearns should have Brewers fan’s trust by now with his track record of success.

 

I think the Brewers being linked to Rendon and how there was a lot of talk of the Brewers getting a big name guy like him shows exactly how the Brewers are viewing this window and that they absolutely are not going to sit on their hands and cut payroll.

 

I’m absolutely stoked to hear that they were seriously involved in Rendon talks and that others involved actually felt that the Brewers has a real shot of coming away with him.

 

The Brewers have payroll room this year, and Braun coming off the books after that. They probably went into the offseason thinking that they could add a really good player to a multi-year deal in the $20-25m range. Unfortunately, this is the season that salaries took off and went out of the Brewer comfort zone.

 

Now the question is whether it makes sense to spend that money on a "second tier" guy like Bumgarner or Ryu, to split it between several cheaper options, or to "put it in the bank" to be used when it can bring more value (like taking on a contract in a mid-season trade).

 

They could afford the AAV of one of the aforementioned pitchers, but Bumgarner is asking for five years and Ryu for four, so that might keep the Brewers away. Beyond that, there doesn't seem to be anyone worth spending big on. If that's the case, I'd rather they not spend the money rather than overpaying for mediocrity.

[brewcrewdue80]

2020 30 Los Angeles Angels $26,071,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2021 31 Los Angeles Angels $28,071,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2022 32 Los Angeles Angels $36,571,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2023 33 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2024 34 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2025 35 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2026 36 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

 

Just going to leave this thought. Rendon's contract after age 29. Donaldson at age 29 just completed an AL MVP season at 8.5BWAR vs Rendon's 6.3BWAR.

On the same career arc, Rendon is 2 years away from the injury Donaldson had while 31. Followed with a return of that injury in 2018 at age 32. Now on a comeback 1year deal Donaldson played a full season's worth of games to the tune of 6.1BWAR. And the resulting contract for Age 34, 35, 36, 37 you would figure to be

34: 21mil

35:21mil

36:21mil

37:21mil

38: 8mil buyout or 16mil option.

 

6.3BWAR is Rendon's 2nd highest WAR season. He had 6.6 his 1st full season.

Donaldson by contrast had 7.7, 7.5, 8.5 that age 29 season, and 7.6 age 30. Like I said 6.1 this year vs Rendon's 6.3 and new 26mil/28mil/36.5mil but then 38.5mil age 33 through age 36.

 

Donaldson was a steal of a contract. Rendon's is the perfect example of a bad long term contract.

[Oxy]

2020 30 Los Angeles Angels $26,071,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2021 31 Los Angeles Angels $28,071,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2022 32 Los Angeles Angels $36,571,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2023 33 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2024 34 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2025 35 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2026 36 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

 

Just going to leave this thought. Rendon's contract after age 29. Donaldson at age 29 just completed an AL MVP season at 8.5BWAR vs Rendon's 6.3BWAR.

On the same career arc, Rendon is 2 years away from the injury Donaldson had while 31. Followed with a return of that injury in 2018 at age 32. Now on a comeback 1year deal Donaldson played a full season's worth of games to the tune of 6.1BWAR. And the resulting contract for Age 34, 35, 36, 37 you would figure to be

34: 21mil

35:21mil

36:21mil

37:21mil

38: 8mil buyout or 16mil option.

 

6.3BWAR is Rendon's 2nd highest WAR season. He had 6.6 his 1st full season.

Donaldson by contrast had 7.7, 7.5, 8.5 that age 29 season, and 7.6 age 30. Like I said 6.1 this year vs Rendon's 6.3 and new 26mil/28mil/36.5mil but then 38.5mil age 33 through age 36.

 

Donaldson was a steal of a contract. Rendon's is the perfect example of a bad long term contract.

 

This is an excellent comparison, but I disagree with your conclusion. Just because Rendon's is a bad contract doesn't make the Donaldson contract a "steal." Donaldson got a fair contract for himself and for an American League team. Rendon got a monster contract for himself that will almost certainly become an albatross for whoever is going to be paying him 4+ years from now. He'll have to remain an MVP caliber player from ages 33-38 just to make the contract close to fair. That will almost certainly not happen, which makes it a bad contract. If Donaldson remains an all star to above average player then his contract will work out. If he get hurt or regresses to average or worse than it is also a bad contract.

[RollieTime]

2020 30 Los Angeles Angels $26,071,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2021 31 Los Angeles Angels $28,071,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2022 32 Los Angeles Angels $36,571,429 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2023 33 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2024 34 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2025 35 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

2026 36 Los Angeles Angels $38,571,428 award bonuses for WS MVP, LCS MVP, and AS selections

 

Just going to leave this thought. Rendon's contract after age 29. Donaldson at age 29 just completed an AL MVP season at 8.5BWAR vs Rendon's 6.3BWAR.

On the same career arc, Rendon is 2 years away from the injury Donaldson had while 31. Followed with a return of that injury in 2018 at age 32. Now on a comeback 1year deal Donaldson played a full season's worth of games to the tune of 6.1BWAR. And the resulting contract for Age 34, 35, 36, 37 you would figure to be

34: 21mil

35:21mil

36:21mil

37:21mil

38: 8mil buyout or 16mil option.

 

6.3BWAR is Rendon's 2nd highest WAR season. He had 6.6 his 1st full season.

Donaldson by contrast had 7.7, 7.5, 8.5 that age 29 season, and 7.6 age 30. Like I said 6.1 this year vs Rendon's 6.3 and new 26mil/28mil/36.5mil but then 38.5mil age 33 through age 36.

 

Donaldson was a steal of a contract. Rendon's is the perfect example of a bad long term contract.

 

Rendon is 29 and received a 7 year deal. Donaldson is already 34 and got a 4 year deal. Rendon’s carries more risk in the injury department because of the length of the contract and a major injury could lead to a much longer wait for the contract to run out, but Donaldson’s carries more risk in the performance department since he is already through his prime years and will surely see some regression at any point while Rendon has at the minimum 3-4 years of his prime still in front of him. Rendon is also a better all around hitter than Donaldson.

[brewtank34]

Thinking any offer to Yelich at this point would need to be near a 7/$200M extension. He’s still owed $41M over the next 3 years.

 

Bump.

[DHonks]

Thinking any offer to Yelich at this point would need to be near a 7/$200M extension. He’s still owed $41M over the next 3 years.

 

Bump.

 

great call. Sounds like they tore up his '22 team and '23 mutual options in this extension

[adambr2]

Thinking any offer to Yelich at this point would need to be near a 7/$200M extension. He’s still owed $41M over the next 3 years.

 

Bump.

 

great call. Sounds like they tore up his '22 team and '23 mutual options in this extension

 

Never heard that Yelich had a mutual option in '23. If so it never had any chance of being exercised anyway.