Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil [Latest: Lindblom DFAd]

[mtrebs]

I wonder if Ray being called up is also bad news for Lorenzo Cain's injury prognosis which we hear basically nothing about for some reason.

 

It may be for a negative prognosis on Yelich’s injury.

[Thurston Fluff]

They have three healthy outfielders today. Why read more into it than that?

[adambr2]

They have three healthy outfielders today. Why read more into it than that?

 

I mean all I said was I wonder. It's just personal speculation. That's all. Hopefully it's nothing. Just was surprised that Ray was the guy today.

[sveumrules]

Lindblom is one of only 119 pitchers to throw at least 50 IP since 2021. That's about four guys per team.

 

Sure, the results haven't been great. His 145 ERA- ranks 113th out of those 119 pitchers. But it could be worse. MadBum has a 166 ERA- since 2020 with 75 million left on his contract.

 

ERA is also not the most predictive indicator over a sample of only 56 innings. FIP & xFIP are typically much better true talent estimators over a sample so small. By FIP-/xFIP- Lindblom has been much closer to average with 114/113 marks.

 

After 2019, I went through the pitching leaderboards to try & come up with statistical guidelines for a #1, #2, #3 pitcher etc. Here is what I found...

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=39386&p=1281201

 

Linblom's FIP-/xFIP- marks fall within the range of a number 4 starter. If he pitches closer to that level moving forward that's a pretty good mop up guy. If he pitches closer to his ERA- moving forward, well, that's why he's eating low leverage innings as the mop up guy.

 

So you are supporting Lindblom's position on the roster then?

 

He's currently on the IL, but assuming the Brewers re-instate him at some point I will trust the process behind that decision. If they decide to release him instead I will also trust the process behind that decision.

 

League average ERA is 4.03 so far this year. Projections have Lindblom between a 4.30 & 4.91 ERA for the rest of the season.

 

If he pitches to his projections for the rest of the year he would be a perfectly cromulent mop up guy.

[MrTPlush]

Projections are cool, but for a guy like Lindblom it usually isn’t high reliability. He has zero recent track record at the MLB level before 2021 unless you go back nearly a decade and he is in his mid 30s.

 

Maybe some stats hint at some bad luck, but he has been pretty horrendous since getting to Milwaukee. Not sure how long you cling to him before you just accept a loss. Now would probably be a bit mature.

[sveumrules]

Projections are cool, but for a guy like Lindblom it usually isn’t high reliability. He has zero recent track record at the MLB level before 2021 unless you go back nearly a decade and he is in his mid 30s.

 

Maybe some stats hint at some bad luck, but he has been pretty horrendous since getting to Milwaukee. Not sure how long you cling to him before you just accept a loss. Now would probably be a bit mature.

 

I agree the ERA has been pretty horrendous, but over only 56 innings that has much less predictive utility than FIP or xFIP, which both believe Lindblom has positive regression incoming.

 

Will the positive regression come to pass, or is Lindblom just plain overmatched by MLB hitters, who knows? But I think the projections, flawed as they may be, still have a better track record than internet commenters, so I'll stick with the compooters for now.

[djoctagone]

a minor league rehab assignment for josh lindblom is likely to start this week.

[djoctagone]

minor league rehab stint begins tomorrow with class aaa nashville.

[djoctagone]

minor league rehab start is official today with class aaa nashville. lindblom is starting tonight for nashville.

[djoctagone]

27 pitches tonight for lindblom in two scoreless innings. the brewers expect him to make at least one more rehab appearance.

[djoctagone]

josh lindblom has completed his minor league rehab assignment and is expected to be activated later this week.

[djoctagone]

josh lindblom has been activated from the injured list.

[Warning Track Power]

josh lindblom has been activated from the injured list.

Lindblom is like watching K-Rod without the positive results.

[MrTPlush]

josh lindblom has been activated from the injured list.

Lindblom is like watching K-Rod without the positive results.

 

I bet Stearns was so hyped when he got the call that Lindblom was signing a three year deal for little to nothing on a yearly salary, basically no downside.

 

Honestly, I didn't think Lindblom could pitch bad enough to make $3mil a year look like an albatross contract....but here we are.

[Warning Track Power]

Honestly, I didn't think Lindblom could pitch bad enough to make $3mil a year look like an albatross contract....but here we are.

Excellent point. I feel much more confident in Perdomo and Rasmussen not giving up runs than I do with Lindblom and they have some real control issues at times.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly, I didn't think Lindblom could pitch bad enough to make $3mil a year look like an albatross contract....but here we are.

Excellent point. I feel much more confident in Perdomo and Rasmussen not giving up runs than I do with Lindblom and they have some real control issues at times.

 

It was a fun experiment, but looks like it is not going to work for us. Not a big deal as long as we don't have a bunch of these wild cards all failing at once. Exactly why "just $5mil to Knebel" was more than people made it out to be. Doesn't sound like a lot until you pair him with Lindblom and suddenly you have almost $10mil in negative value.

[Hopper]

It's time to cut our losses on this guy as far as being on the 26 man roster.

I have no problem with him pitching in AAA, but he has no place on the big team.

Admit it was a mistake and move on.

[umphrey]

There were reasons to be optimistic about his stat line last year - decent strike out and walk numbers mostly. And he only pitched 10 innings this year. But yeah it seems like he’s a couple bad outings away from DFA. The Rays cut a $5M contract and the Angels cut Pujols, we may be next.

[folly412]

I think you give him a couple of outings as innings eater while already behind. He just had a few weeks to work on his mechanics. If he can't be trusted to earn more innings after that, then Perdomo/Weigal/Sobotka offer more upside and might as well get the spot.

[damuelle]

This isn't working out. I guess he's lost his confidence by this point. If we're only going to scratch out 2-4 runs a game, I don't think he can be on the team, I'm sorry to say. Seems like a nice guy who's still guaranteed another $5m or so, so he'll be fine if we move on.

[Never Outhustled]

Time to admit the entire 2020 offseason was a disaster. This is the last step.

[timpep]

Time to admit the entire 2020 offseason was a disaster. This is the last step.

 

The team would be in a lot better shape for the future and the present if every move that came after the Grisham playoff error was wiped off the books.

[folly412]

I think you give him a couple of outings as innings eater while already behind. He just had a few weeks to work on his mechanics. If he can't be trusted to earn more innings after that, then Perdomo/Weigal/Sobotka offer more upside and might as well get the spot.

 

The couple of outings are in, and he is not a major league pitcher. They tried the phantom IL stint to reset and work things out, and he's worse than ever. Someone like Miguel Sanchez would be worth a look.

[DHonks]

He has really nice movement, but he shouldn’t be throwing a fastball. I’d say he should get released soon, but we just dealt one of our best relievers and one of our bubble guys.

[Warning Track Power]

I think it’s time to admit defeat with Lindblom as well. He just isn’t good. Bullpen should be Hader, Williams, Suter, Boxberger, Lauer (if they aren’t going with the 6 man rotation) and some trade acquisition/s.