Gerrit Cole to Yankees - 9 years / $324 million

[Ennder]

Deals like this are why the Yankees have only won one World Series since 2000. It opens them up to win it in the next few years but then it is going to be an anchor on the franchise holding them down in the future.

 

Also for all the complaints about baseball and the salary cap that always come up, baseball has the most diverse playoffs of the big 3 sports in the modern era and that is even with a longer schedule which tends to favor better teams. The luxury cap works.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We don’t need a salary cap. The luxury tax works in the same way. Right?

 

The Yankees will be doing just what the red sox are doing this offseason a couple years from now, which is trying to trade away good pre free agency players whose arby numbers are expensive in order to dip their payroll back below the luxury tax threshold so they arent paying the equivalent of Cole's annual salary to the luxury tax penalty.

 

The luxury tax does work, and I think it's a very good system for MLB given the fact a salary cap and revenue sharing ain't happening. It will never even the financial playing field, but it will keep things in check and help raise the overall league revenue to keep small market teams relevant by having more competitive balance than other pro sports leagues.

[Eye Black]

What’s crazy is that Cole had an absurd 2019 season but prior to that he was a very inconsistent pitcher, so much that I wouldn’t have even considered him a true Ace, especially during his Pirates years.

 

And the trade return the Pirates received for Cole seems even more comically bad now.

 

My Goodness.

 

I've thought the same thing but never say it out loud.

I think the biggest part of the story is everyone predicted the Astros would be able to get more out of Cole, he gets traded to the Astros for a modest return, then all of a sudden, sure enough, he looks much closer to the ace he was always projected to be.

 

For instance, here is his strikeout rate by season...

 

2013 (Pirates) - 7.7 K/9

2014 (Pirates) - 9.0 K/9

2015 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

2016 (Pirates) - 7.6 K/9

2017 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

 

2018 (Astros) - 12.4 K/9

2019 (Astros) - 13.8 K/9

 

 

It has to be disheartening for a Pirates fan to acknowledge the Astros were able to take the same solid, but not spectacular pitcher you had for 5 seasons and turn him into one of the best five pitchers in baseball.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This doesn't hold the Yankees back more than their desire to be immensely profitable. They could eat this contract and still go out and sign anybody they want in any of the next 9 seasons. Every team can spend more than they let on, the Yankees have a virtually limitless spending account. Don't confuse an owner's unwillingness to spend a lot of money with not being able to do it. I don't want to get all brewcrew on the thread but teams like this are not in the same stratosphere. They can literally do whatever they want and be just fine.

[Pugger]

Per Jeff Passan:

 

BREAKING: Right-hander Gerrit Cole is in agreement on a deal with the New York Yankees, sources tell ESPN.

 

Cole to Yankees for nine years and $324 million

 

Edit: The deal includes an opt out after the 2024 season.

 

Good lord! That is one hell of a boat load of money!

[JosephC]

Is free agency still broken?

[tigerbrew]

High time we learn to draft and develop our own Aces.

 

Jimmy Nelson was heading to be our own Ace, but injury derailed it. Brandon Woodruff is our next big hope.

[A Swing and A Drive]

With a 4 pitch walk, Gerrit Cole will earn more than I do in a year!!!

[MrTPlush]

"Oh, just draft your own ace"

 

To bad it takes pitchers years to finally click and half their control is gone before they are elite.

 

Scherzer - 5th full year

Greinke - 5th full year

Verlander - 4th full year (he was good before then, but not truly elite)

Strasburg - #1 pick so unless you all want to tank...

DeGrom/Syndergaard/Kershaw - Elite from the start

Corbin - 6th year

 

Jimmy Nelson was about to take 4+ years to be that. I am not saying some don't show up right away, but way too many take half their team control or more to be elite and of course a ton of them like to get TJS and miss entire years of control on the DL. It puts small markets at a huge disadvantage. Some big markets trot out 3 aces on a roster and it takes a miracle and some great timing for a smaller market to have two at once.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Is free agency still broken?

 

Yeah I think that ship has sailed.

 

I do find it a bit interesting that this type of offseason is happening likely right before the owners and players try to hammer out a new CBA over the next year to try and avoid a potential labor problem after 2021.

 

I do think it's important to the longterm health of the game and benefit of players to try and find ways to maximize the dollars players earn during their perceived prime years - both sides would benefit from players making the most money when they are providing the most onfield production. To me that means reducing the # of years of team control from 6 to 5 - probably by cutting out one of the arbitration years so players can reach free agency sooner. Teams like the Brewers can never, ever expect to sign a premier free agent that reaches that point in his 20s with the current system, the cost/risk is just too high (mainly in terms of years on these premium deals, now). However, they can afford to pay their best players more money if there isn't as big a percentage of their payroll dedicated to aging veteran contracts based on the current system.

[brewmann04]

Hot dog in Yankee stadium just went up to 20 Bucks.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I think the biggest part of the story is everyone predicted the Astros would be able to get more out of Cole, he gets traded to the Astros for a modest return, then all of a sudden, sure enough, he looks much closer to the ace he was always projected to be.

 

For instance, here is his strikeout rate by season...

 

2013 (Pirates) - 7.7 K/9

2014 (Pirates) - 9.0 K/9

2015 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

2016 (Pirates) - 7.6 K/9

2017 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

 

2018 (Astros) - 12.4 K/9

2019 (Astros) - 13.8 K/9

 

 

It has to be disheartening for a Pirates fan to acknowledge the Astros were able to take the same solid, but not spectacular pitcher you had for 5 seasons and turn him into one of the best five pitchers in baseball.

 

From what I've read, it sounds like the Pirates have/had a "pitch to contact" philosophy and the Astros convinced Cole to rely more on his 4-seam to try to miss bats. The results speak for themselves.

[TURBO]

"Oh, just draft your own ace"

 

 

No one is saying "just" go out and draft your own ace. Everyone knows that is easier said than done.

 

We simply can't buy an ace, so we are left with 2 ways to get one. Trade for one, or develop your own.

 

Neither is an easy solution, so teams like the Brewers are left to figure out other ways to try and win.

 

It is a sad state of affairs.

[homer]

If Glasnow stays healthy he could be the next Cole. Pirates are going to regret those two trades forever.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Wonder if the Rays would consider a Hader for Glasnow/Nate Lowe trade?

 

Probably still too risky for Brewers to consider.

 

And yes the Pirates Archer trade was somehow worse than the Cole trade.

 

And if Cole stays a Pirate until he hits FA he probably gets half that contract.

[brewmann04]

Totally agree the Brewers need to draft Pitching and develop them into Starters.

I know it not also possible but the Crew need to draft as Many Arms as they can and hope one or two become Quality Starters.

[MrTPlush]

"Oh, just draft your own ace"

 

 

No one is saying "just" go out and draft your own ace. Everyone knows that is easier said than done.

 

We simply can't buy an ace, so we are left with 2 ways to get one. Trade for one, or develop your own.

 

Neither is an easy solution, so teams like the Brewers are left to figure out other ways to try and win.

 

It is a sad state of affairs.

 

Sure, just saying even if we do good chances they are already into arbitration, getting expensive, and there will be 50 transaction threads wondering when to trade him.

[JosephC]

I think the biggest part of the story is everyone predicted the Astros would be able to get more out of Cole, he gets traded to the Astros for a modest return, then all of a sudden, sure enough, he looks much closer to the ace he was always projected to be.

 

For instance, here is his strikeout rate by season...

 

2013 (Pirates) - 7.7 K/9

2014 (Pirates) - 9.0 K/9

2015 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

2016 (Pirates) - 7.6 K/9

2017 (Pirates) - 8.7 K/9

 

2018 (Astros) - 12.4 K/9

2019 (Astros) - 13.8 K/9

 

 

It has to be disheartening for a Pirates fan to acknowledge the Astros were able to take the same solid, but not spectacular pitcher you had for 5 seasons and turn him into one of the best five pitchers in baseball.

 

From what I've read, it sounds like the Pirates have/had a "pitch to contact" philosophy and the Astros convinced Cole to rely more on his 4-seam to try to miss bats. The results speak for themselves.

 

Anybody have any idea what the spin rate of his fastball has done since he moved from Pittsburgh to Houston?

[Point Beer Is Best]

Salary/Luxury tax aren't the issue, and aren't the reason the NFL has parity. It's revenue-sharing.

 

The NFL system is set up in a way where each team has $400M in income from revenue-sharing activities, and their player/labor budget (salary cap) is $200M. Half of the revenue goes to players, half goes to the teams to operate. It's socialism. If you can't compete, it's not your market's fault. It's incompetent management.

 

MLB system is set up where the player budget (luxury tax) is $200M, but some teams could never afford that. Some teams make that on their TV contract alone (Dodgers have a 25 year deal worth $7-8B, or an average of around $300M per year). For better or worse, it's capitalism. Each team makes in revenue what their respective market can bear and has very limited revenue-sharing.

 

If you think the system that MLB uses isn't broken then I don't know what to tell you.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Anybody have any idea what the spin rate of his fastball has done since he moved from Pittsburgh to Houston?

 

I think that can be answered here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-gerrit-cole-went-from-so-so-to-unhittable/

 

His spin rate spiked upward the last two seasons, and he also targeted the upper part of the strike zone with more frequency.

[JosephC]

Anybody have any idea what the spin rate of his fastball has done since he moved from Pittsburgh to Houston?

 

I think that can be answered here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-gerrit-cole-went-from-so-so-to-unhittable/

 

His spin rate spiked upward the last two seasons, and he also targeted the upper part of the strike zone with more frequency.

 

LOL, when Verlander retires the Brewers should pay him 10 million per year to be the pitching coach because the spin rate of all those pitchers that go to Houston jumps right through the roof. Verlander is the best pitching coach in MLB today.

[KeithStone53151]

I wonder how much longer until guys make an adjustment and start learning to hit high fastballs better. The most successful pitchers in MLB are throwing high fastballs early and often...and racking up the strikeouts. It's to the point guys should know it's coming. It seems easy enough to shorten up and have a bit of a tomahawk type swing to spray those pitches up the middle, but that also doesn't fit into the "all power all the time" mantra of current mlb hitters...so who knows if that happens. Probably around the same time LH pull hitters learn to spray grounders at 3b.

[adambr2]

"Oh, just draft your own ace"

 

 

No one is saying "just" go out and draft your own ace. Everyone knows that is easier said than done.

 

We simply can't buy an ace, so we are left with 2 ways to get one. Trade for one, or develop your own.

 

Neither is an easy solution, so teams like the Brewers are left to figure out other ways to try and win.

 

It is a sad state of affairs.

 

Sure, just saying even if we do good chances they are already into arbitration, getting expensive, and there will be 50 transaction threads wondering when to trade him.

 

Brandon Woodruff may be ours, and he is still under control for 5 years. Yes he will be a Super 2 and be arbitration eligible next year and will get pricier but it's still much better than paying full retail value.

 

Woodruff is a good example of the necessary evil of service time manipulation. Not saying it was or wasn't done intentionally with him, but that extra year of control in 2024 is enormous.

[MrTPlush]

Brandon Woodruff may be ours, and he is still under control for 5 years.

 

Pretty sure he is #1 on the 1B depth chart these days too.

 

We will see what Woodruff turns into. I guess the question is whether he is good or is he potentially elite. I have always been a huge Woodruff fan so hopefully he takes an additional step next year.

[AKCheesehead]

Ask Bauer about the Houston spin rate spikes. Given that they turned out to be trash can thumpers, I don’t doubt that they sought other advantages as well.