Strasburg back to Nats - 7 years, $245 million

[homer]

Having a unique skill set doesn't necessarily equate to value. Long drive champions have a unique skill set........

 

Jamie Dimon is more important to the success of JP Morgan then Strasburg is to the Nationals.

 

If they replace him with a decent pitcher they lose what 3 or 4 more games? There are a lot of those guys.

 

Again he's more like an actor.....people will come and see him.play .....he makes the movie better......but without the director none of it works.

 

Everybody is replaceable.......

 

Yes, Jamie Dimon is replaceable. They could bring in his #2 tomorrow and JP Morgan probably wouldn't miss a beat.

 

Jamie Dimon's WAR is like .01

[SRB]

Jamie Dimon's WAR is like .01

 

Pretty sure Jamie Dimon is below replacement level: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon#London_Whale

 

He's the kind of billionaire CEO/shortstop that you reluctantly take in a trade because you really want Zack Greinke.

[Eye Black]

Here’s what I find funny about the attention on CEO salaries...

 

In 2011 Bud Selig made $18.4 million. Only 12 players in baseball made more than him that year. By his final season (2014) as Commissioner Selig was making at least $22 million, but there are reports he actually made more than $30 million that year. His MLB retirement deal pays him more than $6 million annually for the rest of his life. He has made an incredible amount of money to serve on behalf of the owners during his career.

[JosephC]

Look at Strasburg's history of missing 2 starts here, missing 8 starts here, missing 6 starts here. He hits the free agent year and...boom...33 starts and 209 innings pitched.

 

Over the last seven seasons, Strasburg has averaged 169 2/3 innings pitched.

 

I'll put the over/under for average number of innings pitched per season by Strasberg over the next seven seasons at 130.

 

130 innings per season...let's see how many people want to play this game...over or under?

[Brewcrewin07]

You guys here are all too spooked by injuries, either guys with past injury histories, or that they will happen to someone when they get older. You can't predict them, nor can you just "assume" someone will get hurt when he gets older. If a guy has shown he has come back effectively from it, why worry about it so much?? I absolutely would NOT let that deter me from whether I signed a guy or not. if he's healthy now, that's all I'd care about.

[adambr2]

Look at Strasburg's history of missing 2 starts here, missing 8 starts here, missing 6 starts here. He hits the free agent year and...boom...33 starts and 209 innings pitched.

 

Over the last seven seasons, Strasburg has averaged 169 2/3 innings pitched.

 

I'll put the over/under for average number of innings pitched per season by Strasberg over the next seven seasons at 130.

 

130 innings per season...let's see how many people want to play this game...over or under?

 

I'll take the over, but I'll put the over/under at 95% that this contract turns out horribly for the Nationals and take the over.

[homer]

You guys here are all too spooked by injuries, either guys with past injury histories, or that they will happen to someone when they get older. You can't predict them, nor can you just "assume" someone will get hurt when he gets older. If a guy has shown he has come back effectively from it, why worry about it so much?? I absolutely would NOT let that deter me from whether I signed a guy or not. if he's healthy now, that's all I'd care about.

 

So money does not deter you, injury risk does not deter you...

[TURBO]

To answer the question from the other day:

 

No, 4/120 or 5/150 would not have gotten it done for Stephen Strasburg.

 

Actually it could have...because when I gave that example, it was merely an example based on AAV and not years or anything else. I was assuming it would take about $30 million per year..Stras's contract is about $35 million per year..So I was in the ballpark..and actually when you consider his contract is really 7/165 with 80 million deferred..That's actually only 23.5 million per year. Doable for the Brewers.

 

I think this part of your post should have been in blue. Really bright, neon blue!

 

Doable for the Brewers.

[adambr2]

You guys here are all too spooked by injuries, either guys with past injury histories, or that they will happen to someone when they get older. You can't predict them, nor can you just "assume" someone will get hurt when he gets older. If a guy has shown he has come back effectively from it, why worry about it so much?? I absolutely would NOT let that deter me from whether I signed a guy or not. if he's healthy now, that's all I'd care about.

 

I really hope for your sake that there are not credit card companies out there monitoring the tendencies and behaviors of posters on Brewerfan.net. Your mailbox will be flooded with offers.

[sveumrules]

Look at Strasburg's history of missing 2 starts here, missing 8 starts here, missing 6 starts here. He hits the free agent year and...boom...33 starts and 209 innings pitched.

 

Over the last seven seasons, Strasburg has averaged 169 2/3 innings pitched.

 

I'll put the over/under for average number of innings pitched per season by Strasberg over the next seven seasons at 130.

 

130 innings per season...let's see how many people want to play this game...over or under?

 

Even with all the little injuries, Strasburg is still 18th in games started (222) & 17th in IP (1,346) since 2012. With a 79 ERA-/76 FIP- during that stretch he comes in at 30.6 by runs allowed based WAR (10th) & 33.3 by FIP based WAR (7th).

 

ZIPS is projecting 1,093 IP (156 per season) & a total of 27.5 WAR (about 4 per season) over the life of the deal. I'd probably take the under on those, though Stephen's comps are largely encouraging...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nationals-couldnt-let-stephen-strasburg-leave/

 

"We don’t know for sure how Strasburg will age, and injuries could certainly derail the latter half of his career, but pitchers who have pitched like Strasburg have aged incredibly well. The average WAR totals for these pitchers from age-31 through age-37 was 32.1 WAR with a 28.7 WAR median, even beating the ZiPS projections."

 

Even if the Brewers internal projections were similarly optimistic, I don't think it is remotely realistic given the financial limitations of our market/TV deal to match, much less top, this offer.

[JimH5]

I can't imagine there is any player to whom the Brewers would offer 7/245. Whether they could or not is immaterial.

 

Ryan Braun may be the last star player to spend his whole career with the Brewers.

[sveumrules]

Just for a few other recentish Strasburg comps...

 

Strasburg (age 23-30) 1,346 IP | 79 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 30.6 rWAR / 33.3 fWAR

 

Greinke (age 23-30) 1,537 IP | 80 ERA- / 77 FIP- | 34.4 rWAR / 35.9 fWAR

Greinke (age 31-35) 1,000 IP | 70 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 28.3 rWAR / 20.7 fWAR

 

Verlander (age 23-30) 1,760 IP | 78 ERA- / 79 FIP- | 44.7 rWAR / 43.0 fWAR

Verlander (age 31-36) 1,210 IP | 77 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 32.6 rWAR / 28.8 fWAR

 

CC (age 23-30) 1,776 IP | 76 ERA- / 77 FIP- | 45.1 rWAR / 42.2 fWAR

CC (age 31-37) 1,105 IP | 99 ERA- / 98 FIP- | 12.9 rWAR / 14.1 fWAR

 

Hudson (age 23-30) 1,651 IP | 79 ERA- / 85 FIP- | 38.2 rWAR / 31.9 fWAR

Hudson (age 31-37) 1,162 IP | 83 ERA- / 92 FIP- | 23.3 rWAR / 15.3 fWAR

 

Hamels (age 23-30) 1,669 IP | 80 ERA- / 84 FIP- | 39.6 rWAR / 34.8 fWAR

Hamels (age 31-35) 893 IP | 84 ERA- / 94 FIP- | 19.1 rWAR / 14.3 rWAR

 

Lester (age 23-30) 1,514 IP | 82 ERA- / 87 FIP- | 34.5 rWAR / 28.4 fWAR

Lester (age 31-35) 941 IP | 85 ERA- / 91 FIP- | 17.9 rWAR / 16.7 fWAR

 

Oswalt (age 23-30) 1,622 IP | 72 ERA- / 75 FIP- | 43.6 rWAR / 40.3 fWAR

Oswalt (age 31-35) 623 IP | 97 ERA- / 86 FIP- | 10.3 rWAR / 12.3 fWAR

 

Johan (age 23-30) 1,580 IP | 66 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 49.6 rWAR / 40.4 fWAR

Johan (age 31-33) 316 IP | 96 ERA- / 95 FIP- / 5.7 rWAR / 5.2 fWAR

 

Peavy (age 23-30) 1,289 IP | 81 ERA- / 76 FIP- | 30.4 rWAR / 31.5 bWAR

Peavy (age 31-35) 795 IP | 99 ERA- / 102 FIP- | 10.7 rWAR / 9.7 fWAR

 

Sheets (age 22-29) 1,428 IP | 87 ERA- / 81 FIP- | 26.2 rWAR / 31.9 fWAR

Sheets (age 30-33) 168 IP | 105 ERA- / 113 FIP- | 1.4 rWAR / 1.1 fWAR

[pacopete4]

I bet we were runners up with this one.

[Ennder]

The Brewers can sign a deal like this if they want to. They can afford it, they have the money for it. It just makes absolutely no sense for them to do it. This is one player earning what two really good players make combined. Given our payroll we are always going to be better off taking the two really good players over the one elite. In most cases we are better off taking 3 good players and hoping one goes all Yelich on the league. There are always going to be holes to fill and it will always make more sense for this team to go for depth.

[TURBO]

 

Ryan Braun may be the last star player to spend his whole career with the Brewers.

 

Assuming he retires a Brewer. I can see him playing a couple extra years, possibly as a DH for an American League team.

 

If he is willing to take a pay cut, I'm sure there will be a market for his bat...

[MrTPlush]

 

Ryan Braun may be the last star player to spend his whole career with the Brewers.

 

Assuming he retires a Brewer. I can see him playing a couple extra years, possibly as a DH for an American League team.

 

If he is willing to take a pay cut, I'm sure there will be a market for his bat...

 

Isn’t he soon to have three kids? He at least has two already. I’m pretty confident he will call it a career unless a LA or other California team offers him a contract. Even then he may not. I don’t think he wants to play that badly or the possible drama of moving teams.

 

Seems like a prime guy to just step away when the time makes sense, but who knows.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Ryan Braun may be the last star player to spend his whole career with the Brewers.

 

Assuming he retires a Brewer. I can see him playing a couple extra years, possibly as a DH for an American League team.

 

If he is willing to take a pay cut, I'm sure there will be a market for his bat...

 

Isn’t he soon to have three kids? He at least has two already. I’m pretty confident he will call it a career unless a LA or other California team offers him a contract. Even then he may not. I don’t think he wants to play that badly or the possible drama of moving teams.

 

Seems like a prime guy to just step away when the time makes sense, but who knows.

 

If he manages to stay healthy and plays well this season, I can't see him calling it a career unless the Brewers win the World Series. Then the Brewers would have a decision to make on that 2021 $15 million option. I always assumed that they wouldn't exercise it, but if he takes to 1B and has a renaissance season, who knows?

[pacopete4]

I think too many write off Braun on this being his last season as a Brewer. He's got a great relationship with the owner and front office. He may be here for the next two years still. A lot can happen in that time.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Returning as a Brewer or not, I can't see Ryan Braun retiring after this season. He will only be 37 years old and still has a productive bat.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Returning as a Brewer or not, I can't see Ryan Braun retiring after this season. He will only be 37 years old and still has a productive bat.

 

Also, the guy was never a great outfielder, but he really hasn't lost much out there either. He's managed to avoid the serious leg injuries that typically rob players of their athleticism late in their careers. The talk of moving him to 1B is more to preserve his health and that there is a lot of solid corner OF options available than it is an admission that he can't play a decent LF anymore.

[Eye Black]

Ben Lindbergh mentioned this on The Ringer MLB podcast, he believes Strasburg is the oldest pitcher to sign a deal of seven or more years since Kevin Brown signed a 7-year, $105 million deal with the Dodgers in 1998 at the age of 34. That was the first $100 million deal in MLB history.

[monkeyman343434]

Returning as a Brewer or not, I can't see Ryan Braun retiring after this season. He will only be 37 years old and still has a productive bat.

The Angels might be looking at Braun for 3B in 2021

[MrTPlush]

Returning as a Brewer or not, I can't see Ryan Braun retiring after this season. He will only be 37 years old and still has a productive bat.

The Angels might be looking at Braun for 3B in 2021

 

Unlikely, heard they were looking to acquire Hiura to man 3B for the next 6 years.

[RollieTime]

Returning as a Brewer or not, I can't see Ryan Braun retiring after this season. He will only be 37 years old and still has a productive bat.

The Angels might be looking at Braun for 3B in 2021

 

Unlikely, heard they were looking to acquire Hiura to man 3B for the next 6 years.

 

Impossible, the rumor is they are looking to acquire Arcia as their third baseman and giving him a lifetime contract.

[wallus]

 

Unlikely, heard they were looking to acquire Hiura to man 3B for the next 6 years.

 

You know its been discussed!