Junior Guerra to Diamondbacks - 1 year / $2.55M

[Eye Black]

The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with right-hander Junior Guerra on a one-year deal that includes a club option for a second year, first reported by Kyle Lesniewski of Brew Crew Ball and confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will pay Guerra $2.55MM in 2020 along with a $100K buyout on the club option, making for a $2.65MM overall guarantee, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.

 

Guerra, who had been arbitration-eligible for the first time, was non-tendered by the Brewers, meaning that he will remain under team control for three more years. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $3.5MM in arbitration.

 

The 34-year-old Guerra adds another option to the Arizona bullpen, as well as an arm that can provide multiple innings. Guerra emerged as one of Craig Counsell’s most reliable options in the second half of 2019, tossing 83 2/3 innings in 72 games with Milwaukee, including 23 appearances in which he recorded more than three outs.

 

A converted starter, 2019 marked the first season in which Guerra was deployed as a full-time reliever, and he delivered solid results, logging a 3.55 ERA and 4.52 FIP while striking out 77 batters and walking 36. He’ll join a bullpen that graded out as firmly middle of the road in 2019, providing some much needed depth to Torey Lovullo’s arsenal.

 

MLB Trade Rumors Link

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Junior, but they are looking at a lot of arms for only a few available spots. He had a nice little run as a Brewer, though.

[pacopete4]

Good. Now hopefully Kyle Lesniewski can scram and go work for Dbacks Ball. Never seen a more unstable dude about a player not being signed back.

[adambr2]

Kyle needs to calm down. Guerra was whatever. I remember several time last year thinking that Guerra had to be the luckiest pitcher alive, I never saw a guy get away with more middle middle pitches than Guerra.

 

I would not have been mad to see him back as the last man in the pen, but I'm glad to see we think we can do better.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Good. Now hopefully Kyle Lesniewski can scram and go work for Dbacks Ball. Never seen a more unstable dude about a player not being signed back.

 

I understand that he knew Guerra personally, but yeah, he was pretty over the top negative about what was a pretty understandable decision, IMO.

[SRB]

My only criticism of their handling of Guerra is that I think he could have been useful depth as a starter. But since they transitioned him full time to a RP, I'm fine letting a guy with a 4.83 xFIP last year walk. Good luck to Junior!

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Junior, but they are looking at a lot of arms for only a few available spots. He had a nice little run as a Brewer, though.

 

Guerra gave them 83+ solid innings out of the bullpen. They better have a lot of arms, because it might take 3 to replace that kind of workload.

[long ball]

So it looks like Stearns had a pretty good read on the market for Guerra. He was overvalued through arbitration compared to free agency. He is definitely replaceable, but as SRB noted he was a solid reliever who could have provided some emergency rotation depth if needed.

[sveumrules]

From 2016-19 there were 115 pitchers in MLB who threw at least 400 innings.

 

Guerra's ERA (3.78) outperformed his FIP (4.53) by the third largest margin in the sample.

 

Number one? Chase Anderson with a 3.83 ERA to 4.70 FIP.

 

Will be interesting to see if they are able to replicate that with their new clubs.

[Roderick]

I would have paid that easily to have Guerra return. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad - he ate innings.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would have paid that easily to have Guerra return. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad - he ate innings.

 

That's the point, though. There is more upside in an arm like Jake Faria than there is in Guerra. Also a much, much lower floor, though. Like it or not, they are going to be taking some risks roster-wise in 2020.

[tigerbrew]

I would have paid that easily to have Guerra return. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad - he ate innings.

 

Me too, I would have paid that easily to have Guerra back.

[Roderick]

I would have paid that easily to have Guerra return. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad - he ate innings.

 

That's the point, though. There is more upside in an arm like Jake Faria than there is in Guerra. Also a much, much lower floor, though. Like it or not, they are going to be taking some risks roster-wise in 2020.

 

Yes, you can shoot for upside, if you have the core of the pitching roster that is set and you have confidence in. How can you have that right now?

 

I don't think we have so many arms that we are parsing between option #14 and #13 on the roster, so lets save the money. Right now we are short and for $2.6M, we could have filled a spot with a known guy, a known guy that can be a starter if need be. And when you have three starters, of which none has pitched two full mlb starting seasons yet, why not buy some insurance? I basically count Woodruff, Houser, and Lauer as the starters right now.

 

Edit: Maybe I should get more info. Who can't be sent back down to the minors (without risk of losing) again next year out of: Black, Burnes, Faria, Feyereisen, D. Guerra, Peralta, Perdomo, Supak, Wahl, D.Williams, T.Williams, Yardley?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would have paid that easily to have Guerra return. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad - he ate innings.

 

That's the point, though. There is more upside in an arm like Jake Faria than there is in Guerra. Also a much, much lower floor, though. Like it or not, they are going to be taking some risks roster-wise in 2020.

 

Yes, you can shoot for upside, if you have the core of the pitching roster that is set and you have confidence in. How can you have that right now?

 

I don't think we have so many arms that we are parsing between option #14 and #13 on the roster, so lets save the money. Right now we are short and for $2.6M, we could have filled a spot with a known guy, a known guy that can be a starter if need be. And when you have three starters, of which none has pitched two full mlb starting seasons yet, why not buy some insurance? I basically count Woodruff, Houser, and Lauer as the starters right now.

 

I think that's fair. If it were up to me, I probably would have offered Guerra arbitration. The Brewers not doing that, though, tells me that they have more faith in their current middle relief/back-end starter options than I, or pretty much everyone else, does.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Edit: Maybe I should get more info. Who can't be sent back down to the minors (without risk of losing) again next year out of: Black, Burnes, Faria, Feyereisen, D. Guerra, Peralta, Perdomo, Supak, Wahl, D.Williams, T.Williams, Yardley?

 

I believe of those guys mentioned, Black, Faria and D. Guerra are out of options. They also picked up Yardley as well, but I'm not sure where he is option-wise.

[Jopal78]

I think a lot of people want to denigrate Guerra because they specifically remember some game that he threw gas on the fire, and say “lookee the advanced metrics suggest he’s been more lucky than good”. Fact of the matter is when they brought Guerra into games he got the job done way more often than not. Be it luck or talent who knows but he threw a lot of innings for the Brewers with quality end results.

 

If you look at the salary numbers, Guerra signed with the D’Backs for about what he made last year. As an arbitration eligible player with Milwaukee they couldn’t pay him the same amount as in 2019 (otherwise I’m sure he’d still be on their roster). They also determined his production wasn’t worth a raise in salary, which again was proven true by his contract with Arizona. Bottom line, he’s a quality major league pitcher, who was a victim of a numbers game in Milwaukee.

[pacopete4]

Guerra's age probably didn't help his situation either. He's thrown a lot of innings as an older guy and there are metrics that show he might have had a bit of luck to help even out his numbers a bit.

[monty57]

I think a lot of people want to denigrate Guerra because they specifically remember some game that he threw gas on the fire, and say “lookee the advanced metrics suggest he’s been more lucky than good”. Fact of the matter is when they brought Guerra into games he got the job done way more often than not. Be it luck or talent who knows but he threw a lot of innings for the Brewers with quality end results.

 

If you look at the salary numbers, Guerra signed with the D’Backs for about what he made last year. As an arbitration eligible player with Milwaukee they couldn’t pay him the same amount as in 2019 (otherwise I’m sure he’d still be on their roster). They also determined his production wasn’t worth a raise in salary, which again was proven true by his contract with Arizona. Bottom line, he’s a quality major league pitcher, who was a victim of a numbers game in Milwaukee.

 

Exactly. His estimated arbitration number was around $3.5M, so we would likely have had to pay around 40% above what he made on the market. As others have said, the arbitration process is broken.

 

He helped the Brewers in his time with the team. I would have liked him back, but not if it meant greatly overpaying for him.

[Smichaelis9]

Edit: Maybe I should get more info. Who can't be sent back down to the minors (without risk of losing) again next year out of: Black, Burnes, Faria, Feyereisen, D. Guerra, Peralta, Perdomo, Supak, Wahl, D.Williams, T.Williams, Yardley?

 

I believe of those guys mentioned, Black, Faria and D. Guerra are out of options. They also picked up Yardley as well, but I'm not sure where he is option-wise.

Looked that up at the time of the Yardley claim, he has 2 options left

[Baldkin]

From 2016-19 there were 115 pitchers in MLB who threw at least 400 innings.

 

Guerra's ERA (3.78) outperformed his FIP (4.53) by the third largest margin in the sample.

 

Number one? Chase Anderson with a 3.83 ERA to 4.70 FIP.

 

Will be interesting to see if they are able to replicate that with their new clubs.

 

I'm not surprised given the OF the Brewers have put out there for two fly ball pitchers the last 3 seasons.

[TJseven7]

When the Brewers non-tendered him I expected them to bring him back at a deal like this. Arby was likely 1 mil too high. This is a fair deal but there are lots of RPs in this range.