2019 Winter Meetings Rumors

[SRB]

2020: $19mm

2021: $18mm

2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

 

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

 

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.

 

League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.

I like Seager a lot, but I think you're overstating him.

 

Seager's floor is probably around the .673 OPS he put up in 2018 (Moose was not been under a .774 OPS since six years ago).

 

Yes and even in that fluke season he was worth 1.5 fWAR. Over his entire career Moustakas has averaged about 2 fWAR over full season. That's the benefit of elite defense.

[wntrtxn21]

2020: $19mm

2021: $18mm

2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

 

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

 

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.

 

League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.

 

I think you way overvalue Seager. His floor was 2018 when he was a .8 WAR (.221/.273 OPS .673) His last three years: .249/.323 - .221/.273 - .239/.321. Was rated in the bottom third of all 3B last year. Right now he IS about a league average 3B.

[LouisEly]

I think you way overvalue Seager. His floor was 2018 when he was a .8 WAR (.221/.273 OPS .673) His last three years: .249/.323 - .221/.273 - .239/.321. Was rated in the bottom third of all 3B last year. Right now he IS about a league average 3B.

In only 106 games last year, Seager was a 2.4 bWAR/ 2.9 fWAR player. I don't consider that to be league average. (For reference, Moustakas had a 2.8 fWAR in 143 games last year.)

 

Mitch Haniger is arbitration-eligible. Maybe the Mariners don't want to pay him either. I'd take him as the offset in a package with Seager, and the only ask would be for Seager to covert the 2022 option to a team option with a reasonable ($2M max) buyout and have the Mariners send enough cash to cover the buyout. Send the Mariners Corey Ray and a couple of lower level guys (Joe Gray, Larry Ernesto).

[long ball]

2020: $19mm

2021: $18mm

2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

 

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

 

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.

 

League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.

 

Baseball Prospectus:

2017: 3.0

2018: 2.5

2019: 2.2

 

Baseball Reference:

2017: 2.9

2018: 1.2

2019: 2.4

 

Fangraphs:

2017:3.5

2018: 1.5

2019: 2.9

 

He's been about a league average hitter over that time frame propped up by positional adjustment and defense. If we assume 2.0 WAR is a league average player, Seager has been slightly above that. If we take into context that third base is deeper than just about any position in the league right now I think it's completely fair to call him league average. And keep in mind we are talking about age 32, 33, and 34 of Seager. So even if we start him out at a projected 2.5 WAR in 2020, it's probably going down from there.

 

And your point about Moustakas is actually making my argument for me. the Brewers didn't want to lock themselves into a multi year contract with him either.

[liveforoctober]

Does anyone have access to that hit spray chart site to overlay Seager's production last year but at Miller Park? 23 home runs in under 400 at bats while playing in Seattle... he is certainly a candidate for the Miller Park spike we hypothesize about if the offense is what we are concerned about here on the field.

[RollieTime]

It was just mentioned on Hot Stove by Richard Justice of MLB.com this morning that “there was gossip in the lobby” of the Winter Meetings that the Brewers were going to come away with one of the big third baseman (notably Rendon or possibly Donaldson). They said the Brewers “obviously they did not get Rendon” and it looks like they aren’t going to get Donaldson either with the multiple teams making strong pushes for him, but Stearns should have Brewers fan’s trust by now with his track record of success.

 

I think the Brewers being linked to Rendon and how there was a lot of talk of the Brewers getting a big name guy like him shows exactly how the Brewers are viewing this window and that they absolutely are not going to sit on their hands and cut payroll.

 

I’m absolutely stoked to hear that they were seriously involved in Rendon talks and that others involved actually felt that the Brewers has a real shot of coming away with him.

[SRB]

I could see the Brewers being in on Donaldson, at least initially, but not Rendon. It seems like Stearns is not afraid of big free agent deals but he prioritizes value over everything else (hence the big Lorenzo Cain signing is because teams were undervaluing him). Donaldson could be a similar situation, but not if teams are driving up the price on him.

[TJseven7]

My assumption on Donaldson is that it's not going to be about dollars, it's going to be about years. DS hasn't been shy about paying big dollars for short term sticks.

 

I'd also assume you'll never see a big FA pitcher. Between the college arms in the draft and the length of FA deals for top pitchers, it just seems outside the team philosophy.

[AKCheesehead]

I go back and forth in how I feel about a hypothetical Donaldson signing. I’d be pretty pumped for 2020 even though the back end of the contract could be scary.

[PDCBalla]

Would be nice to have an established third baseman for multiple years.