Lyles to Texas, 2 Years $16mil

[et bbal]

I'm surprised to see anyone saying that Jordan Lyles signing elsewhere is proof that we're not going after good starting pitching. Jordan Lyles has a history of not being a good starting pitcher. He happened to pitch well in a short stint with the Brewers, but any MLB player can be good for a short period. When Stearns spends money (he will), I'd like it to be on someone who is likely to sustain success, not someone who will generally be bad, but may have a stretch where he pitches well. I hope the best for Lyles, but he's a back-of-the-rotation arm who we shouldn't be spending $8M/year on.

 

Does anyone else remember the interview with Lyles last year where he was asked what the difference was between his numbers in Pitt vs. Mil. He replied that all the credit went to Grandal. If that is the case and we no longer have Grandal, maybe it is a good thing we didn't resign him.

[reillymcshane]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150??

The way things are going -- probably not.

 

5/150 is probably the minimum right now. Six and $180 is more realistic.

[BrewBalls]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

And when something you buy doesn’t work out and isn’t returnable what do you do then? Most would say you go back out and try a different thing which is suppose to the same thing. The cheaper you can pay for these types of risky purchases the more likely you can afford to buy something different. If we make a $24MM mistake on someone like Wheeler there is no chance Stearns can go back out and just sign someone like Bumgarner to take his spot. But $2-3 mil on someone like Miley, Gonzalez, Lyles or even Albers isn’t going to deter Stearns and Mark A from spending another $2-3 mil to correct their mistake.

[MrTPlush]

Guys sometimes you just gotta realize someone is on the other end of the spectrum with their opinion and you just gotta say “OK, Boomer” and move on.

[homer]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

 

You realize that literally one pitcher has ever had a season like that at age 36. Also, how many arm injuries has Verlander had in his career? How many Strasburg? SS has thrown over 200 innings twice in his career.

[adambr2]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

 

You realize that literally one pitcher has ever had a season like that at age 36. Also, how many arm injuries has Verlander had in his career? How many Strasburg? SS has thrown over 200 innings twice in his career.

 

Yep. This would be no different than saying, "We should give Josh Donaldson 4 years and 120 million and there's no reason he won't be worth it. Look how well Wade Boggs and George Brett played in their late 30s."

[brewers888]

The fact is we need to do a better job with drafting and developing so we don’t even have to consider paying guys like Lyles 8 million per season. As far as paying any free agent upwards of 20 million per we shouldn’t even be thinking of it. As great as players like Donaldson and Strasburg are we just cannot afford to have an empty 20 million or so on the payroll.

 

If we were to sign a player of this ilk and they were to get hurt or just not play up to their usual standards we would not be able to overcome it. Stearns knows this and it’s why he doesn’t make moves like that. Let our GM do his job and I think when all is said and done we will all be satisfied. My only issue with this front office is that they have not done a good enough job in regards to the draft and signings in Latin America.

[MrTPlush]

We had Ryan Braun provide below average defense, .780 OPS, won a division, and got to Game 7 of the NLCS.

 

So yes, in fact, we can afford an empty $20mil spot on the payroll. He has deferrals, but said FA could be the same concept. Or you could look at the deferrals of other players (Ramirez/Garza) with Braun’s salary and see $20mil or so of money not really providing much.

[adambr2]

I never liked the second Braun extension much, but I guess I can understand why some people did. That one had some intangible value attached. It was as much about keeping a franchise cornerstone at the time and a big important name for casual Brewer fans in Milwaukee for his entire career and away from free agency.

[MrTPlush]

I never liked the second Braun extension much, but I guess I can understand why some people did. That one had some intangible value attached. It was as much about keeping a franchise cornerstone at the time and a big important name for casual Brewer fans in Milwaukee for his entire career and away from free agency.

 

Yah, not trying to start a Braun debate, just pointing out we have done quite a bit when there was a large sum of dead money compared to production. .780 OPS outfielders aren’t hard to find...especially if defense isn’t a concern. So as far as 2018 went Braun was pretty “empty” on the payroll.

[TJseven7]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150?? The Brewers could absolutely do that. A lot of these players are more concerned about AAV than anything else anyway. But whatever, if you are comfortable with them throwing stuff against a wall every year and seeing if it sticks as far as their pitching goes, without an incredible amount of luck, you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

 

I love this by the way. If they paid 16mil per year for Cain why not pay 30 mil a year for a pitcher? Yeah we can play 16 so why not DOUBLE IT?

 

1st off because Cain's instincts in CF won't depreciate with age. The guy could drop his bat to replacement level and still be a 2 war player.

[liveforoctober]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150?? The Brewers could absolutely do that. A lot of these players are more concerned about AAV than anything else anyway. But whatever, if you are comfortable with them throwing stuff against a wall every year and seeing if it sticks as far as their pitching goes, without an incredible amount of luck, you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

 

The current strategy of the front office, which you are challenging here, has us now in a position to qualify for the playoffs for a 3rd straight season which has never been done before in our franchise's history.

 

Stated a different way, we are currently witnessing the most successful stretch in Milwaukee Brewers baseball history, due in large part to our strategy of acquiring talent.

[Roderick]

Dangit. Was hoping we'd bring him back for 2/12 or something.

 

2/$16M is the 2020 version of 2/$12M

[Matty V]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

 

You realize that literally one pitcher has ever had a season like that at age 36. Also, how many arm injuries has Verlander had in his career? How many Strasburg? SS has thrown over 200 innings twice in his career.

 

JV had a 7.8 bWAR in his age 36 season.

 

Randy Johnson had a 8.1 bWAR in his age 36 season.

And he also had a 10.1 bWAR at 37, 10.7 bWAR at 38, and 8.4 bWAR at 40.

 

But your overall point is well taken. I would not gamble on another pitcher duplicating Justin Verlander's performance.

[TURBO]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150??

The way things are going -- probably not.

 

5/150 is probably the minimum right now. Six and $180 is more realistic.

 

this did not age well...lol

[BrewBalls]

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2019/12/14/jordan-lyles-helped-make-milwaukee-a-postseason-contender-now-he-hopes-to-do-the-same-in-texas/

 

Here is an interesting article which talks about how Milwaukee helped Lyles resurrect his career. I’m hoping the Brewers have identified similar adjustments which can help Lindblom, Anderson and Lauer take another step forward with their careers.