Lyles to Texas, 2 Years $16mil

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Sorry, I forgot that if we don't penny pinch on starting pitchers, we can't make value based signings like the 2 year deal for the immortal Matt Albers. What an obvious and tremendous value the was.

 

For $5 million over two years, he was fine. Provided some value, and there were stretches in both 2018 and 2019 where he was the best reliever on the team. So your attempted cherry-pick doesn't work here.

 

He was below replacement level, which means he literally provided negative value. Saying he was good for stretches is cherry picking. He had terrible seasons both years with the team.

 

Albers had a $2.5 million AAV. Sorry, using him as an example of a poor value signing is just a bad argument.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

Exactly! Just like huge money deals, sometimes value signings don't exactly work out. The difference is that the deal Albers signed isn't going to be an albatross hanging around the team's neck for the next half decade.

[BrewBalls]

When you watched Peralta and especially Burnes pitch in the 2018 postseason, there was no reason to think that they wouldn’t take the next step in 2019, similar to the way Woodruff did...

 

I still think Burnes is an excellent “bounce back” candidate.

 

And of course Stearns has a plan. And a backup plan. And a backup to the backup plan. etc

 

In general I'm quite pleased Stearns as a GM, but he didn't have viable backup plans when two of the three young starters failed miserably. There was no one decent to plug in to their spots in the rotation until we traded for Lyles.

Did you forget he went out and resigned Gio who came in and pitched extremely well before going on the IR. Last season Gonzalez started 17 games and two relief appearances for a total of 87.1 IP while posting a 3.50 ERA (4.04FIP), 1.294 WHIP and 127 ERA+ which amounted to a value of 1.7 bWAR. If you also consider how well Houser pitched he was a second pitcher Stearns was able to plug in when Burnes, Chacin and Peralta all struggled. Meaning Stearns did have options before trading for Lyles which contradicts your previous claim.

[Brewcrewin07]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

[adambr2]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

 

I don't think anyone is going to disagree with you that as a general rule, more expensive free agents will produce better results than lower priced free agents. We just flat out don't have the money to compete with the Yankees and the Dodgers or even the Cubs for the Gerritt Coles of the world. I don't know what else to tell you. We just simply have to be creative and find other ways.

[82brewcrew82]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

Except baseball is literally unlike anything else in life. It's not like there is some guarantee that comes along with a big money contract. DS is doing exactly what a small market team should be doing.

[Brewcrewin07]

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

 

I don't think anyone is going to disagree with you that as a general rule, more expensive free agents will produce better results than lower priced free agents. We just flat out don't have the money to compete with the Yankees and the Dodgers or even the Cubs for the Gerritt Coles of the world. I don't know what else to tell you. We just flat out have to be creative and find other ways.

 

This simply isn't true...they COULD make a big FA pitching signing once in awhile. They have done it with bats(see, Cain, Lorenzo). Regularly?? No, of course not, but what better year would there be to do it, when they have a bunch of $$ freed up(right now), Braun comes off the books next year and you still have Yelich?? If not now, when?? Affordability is all about how you structure a contract.

[adambr2]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

[Brewcrewin07]

With the way Albers pitched in 2017 in Washington, taking a shot on him for 2/5 made total sense. He started out fantastically in 2018 for the first half, got hurt, and unfortunately was never really the same for us after.

 

Sheesh. Not every single value based signing will work out just the way we hope it will. But we criticize those moves and ignore the terrible ones that he didn't make that people wanted.

 

 

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for.

Except baseball is literally unlike anything else in life. It's not like there is some guarantee that comes along with a big money contract. DS is doing exactly what a small market team should be doing.

 

There are no guarantees in life, or with anything..however, if you play the odds which is what a lot of you say the Brewers have to do in a lot of instances, then wouldn't you agree that the odds would be much more in favor of a Stephen Strasburg giving you 4 much better years for example then say a Jordan Lyles would?? I think any of us would agree that the odds would be greatly in favor of that.

[Brewcrewin07]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150?? The Brewers could absolutely do that. A lot of these players are more concerned about AAV than anything else anyway. But whatever, if you are comfortable with them throwing stuff against a wall every year and seeing if it sticks as far as their pitching goes, without an incredible amount of luck, you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

[pacopete4]

$30m per season for a pitcher for the Brewers isn’t realistic. I almost want them to do it and have that pitcher just do okay, just so we can put this silliness to bed for awhile.

[xisxisxis]

There are no guarantees in life, or with anything..however, if you play the odds which is what a lot of you say the Brewers have to do in a lot of instances, then wouldn't you agree that the odds would be much more in favor of a Stephen Strasburg giving you 4 much better years for example then say a Jordan Lyles would?? I think any of us would agree that the odds would be greatly in favor of that.

That's why Lyles will get 2/$16M and Strasbourg will get over $100M. They aren't equivalent. If you look at production and say Lyles gives you 2WAR over that $16M and Strasbourg give you 12WAR/$100M then you are pretty equivalent in return. The difference is for that $100M commitment you have 2 times the chance that a career ending injury occurs before he gets to 12WAR or his injury past continues and he only hits 8 WAR. Then you just lost a lot of money.

[adambr2]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150?? The Brewers could absolutely do that. A lot of these players are more concerned about AAV than anything else anyway. But whatever, if you are comfortable with them throwing stuff against a wall every year and seeing if it sticks as far as their pitching goes, without an incredible amount of luck, you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

 

You were the one who used Lorenzo Cain as the example of the Brewers spending big.

I simply asked you what TOR pitcher would be available for a contract around 5/80. So then you changed the narrative entirely and threw out suggestions of nearly double that AAV for Strasburg. Spending 30M a year is not the same as spending 16M a year.

[adambr2]

you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

 

Maybe I will, maybe I won't. No way to know. But I can guarantee I'll enjoy being a Brewer fan much more in my lifetime than you will in yours.

[Brewcrewin07]

Lorenzo Cain is your example, really? What big name TOR pitcher do you think is going to be available for 5 years and 80 million?

 

And affordability is not all about how you structure a contract. You cannot structure your way into making Gerrit Cole affordable.

 

So you don't think Strasburg couldn't be had for about 4/120?? 5 for 150?? The Brewers could absolutely do that. A lot of these players are more concerned about AAV than anything else anyway. But whatever, if you are comfortable with them throwing stuff against a wall every year and seeing if it sticks as far as their pitching goes, without an incredible amount of luck, you will never see them win a world series the rest of your lifetime(regardless of how old you are now).

 

You were the one who used Lorenzo Cain as the example of the Brewers spending big.

I simply asked you what TOR pitcher would be available for a contract around 5/80. So then you changed the narrative entirely and threw out suggestions of nearly double that AAV for Strasburg. Spending 30M a year is not the same as spending 16M a year.

 

Braun will make 16 million per year this year...there's half of the $30 right there starting next year..then they have what?? About 40-45 million right now to match last year's payroll?? Take another $16 million off of that(which is what you are paying Cain per year, and Braun this year) and that still leaves you with about $24-$25 million to fill out the rest of your roster for this year and next. See how easy that is?? And that's not even considering if Mark A was willing to raise payroll by a bit more.

[homer]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

[KeithStone53151]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How in the world has a thread about Jordan Lyles signing a two-year deal for $8 million AAV devolved into yet another argument about the Brewers not signing top free agent pitchers to $100+ million guaranteed deals?

[adambr2]

Yes. If we wanted to give Stephen Strasburg 5 years/150M and he agreed, we could do it. But that's the problem with your mindset, Brewcrewin07. You're all about instant gratification and you can't see the forest through the trees. A GM, particularly in Milwaukee, can't operate that way. That's why we hired a GM who can.

 

You speak of spending on a TOR while Yelich is still here. But see, if you were running the show, we wouldn't even have Yelich. We would have never had the prospects to get him because we would have used them long ago on an arm like Sonny Gray. We wouldn't have had the cash to sign Yasmani Grandal last year because we would already be budget stretched from whatever big name FA we signed in 2014.

 

You can't run a baseball franchise with a year to year mindset.

[Brewcrewin07]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

 

 

Bingo! For some reason everyone here(or most everyone), seems to think/assume, that just because a pitcher(or any player) is in his mid to upper 30's it automatically means he will be terrible. They have no way of knowing that. I mean, are those the same people that think your above example, Justin Verlander at 36, isn't worth what he's making?? I would take 36 year old Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Justin Verlander over most other pitchers in baseball. To automatically assume Stephen Strasburg wouldn't be worth $30/mill a year at 36, is just their way of trying to prove he wouldn't be worth it.

[mtrebs]

When you watched Peralta and especially Burnes pitch in the 2018 postseason, there was no reason to think that they wouldn’t take the next step in 2019, similar to the way Woodruff did...

 

I still think Burnes is an excellent “bounce back” candidate.

 

And of course Stearns has a plan. And a backup plan. And a backup to the backup plan. etc

 

In general I'm quite pleased Stearns as a GM, but he didn't have viable backup plans when two of the three young starters failed miserably. There was no one decent to plug in to their spots in the rotation until we traded for Lyles.

 

That's not entirely true. Gio was signed early on, was plugged into one of those spots, and performed quite admirably.

 

They also started the year with Chase Anderson in the bullpen, as a viable alternative should the young starters struggle. What they didn't have a backup plan for was Chacin pitching horribly.

 

That’s right, I forgot about Gio being picked up. Prior to that we were in really rough shape though, so we lucked out that the Yankees (I think) released him. There were just so many things that went wrong with the pitching that it was amazing that the team made it at far as they did.

[Brewcrewin07]

Yes. If we wanted to give Stephen Strasburg 5 years/150M and he agreed, we could do it. But that's the problem with your mindset, Brewcrewin07. You're all about instant gratification and you can't see the forest through the trees. A GM, particularly in Milwaukee, can't operate that way. That's why we hired a GM who can.

 

You speak of spending on a TOR while Yelich is still here. But see, if you were running the show, we wouldn't even have Yelich. We would have never had the prospects to get him because we would have used them long ago on an arm like Sonny Gray. We wouldn't have had the cash to sign Yasmani Grandal last year because we would already be budget stretched from whatever big name FA we signed in 2014.

 

You can't run a baseball franchise with a year to year mindset.

 

I mean isn't that what the Brewers are essentially doing now with all the one year or one year plus an option year contract they dole out now?? That's running it year to year. We would have Yelich if I was running the team. The time to go for it is now while you still have him. I would take my chances that a Strasburg/Woody 1-2 top of rotation for the next 3-4 years will give me a much better chance of getting to and winning the WS, then piece mealing a rotation together year after year. I mean how do you think the Nats won the WS this year?? Mostly because of their dominant pitching.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You want to pay a 36 year old Strasburg $30 million?

 

If he's anything like 36 year old Verlander...why not?

 

 

Bingo! For some reason everyone here(or most everyone), seems to think/assume, that just because a pitcher(or any player) is in his mid to upper 30's it automatically means he will be terrible. They have no way of knowing that. I mean, are those the same people that think your above example, Justin Verlander at 36, isn't worth what he's making?? I would take 36 year old Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Justin Verlander over most other pitchers in baseball. To automatically assume Stephen Strasburg wouldn't be worth $30/mill a year at 36, is just their way of trying to prove he wouldn't be worth it.

 

Those guys that you mentioned are all very, very rare exceptions to the rule. They are all generational talents that defied very long odds to continue pitching at a Hall of Fame level into their upper 30s/early 40s. Cole and Strasburg are fine pitchers, but comparing them to the Johnsons, Ryans and Verlanders of the world is an insult to to those all-time greats. Heck, just a couple years ago Cole was a failed starter that the Pirates pretty much gave away. He doesn't hold those guys' jock straps.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

That’s right, I forgot about Gio being picked up. Prior to that we were in really rough shape though, so we lucked out that the Yankees (I think) released him. There were just so many things that went wrong with the pitching that it was amazing that the team made it at far as they did.

 

There was. The fact that they were able to piecemail together a competent rotation was pretty miraculous, considering 3 of their top 5 preferred rotation members failed miserably, including their opening day starter and de facto #1 (Chacin). That is a credit to Stearns and the team's management/coaching.

[adambr2]

Yes. If we wanted to give Stephen Strasburg 5 years/150M and he agreed, we could do it. But that's the problem with your mindset, Brewcrewin07. You're all about instant gratification and you can't see the forest through the trees. A GM, particularly in Milwaukee, can't operate that way. That's why we hired a GM who can.

 

You speak of spending on a TOR while Yelich is still here. But see, if you were running the show, we wouldn't even have Yelich. We would have never had the prospects to get him because we would have used them long ago on an arm like Sonny Gray. We wouldn't have had the cash to sign Yasmani Grandal last year because we would already be budget stretched from whatever big name FA we signed in 2014.

 

You can't run a baseball franchise with a year to year mindset.

We would have Yelich if I was running the team.

 

How? You wanted to go for it and get Sonny Gray in 2017 when he was being shopped by the A's, even if it meant using Brinson. How would you have gone about getting Yelich just months later with no top prospect to offer the Marlins?

 

You said regardless of the circumstances or what it took that we should go get Gray. I don't remember the Quintana discussion but I'm assuming the conversation was similar. You have already expressed numerous times that prospects are just prospects and you have no patience or discipline in waiting for them to develop and are willing to use them to get proven players whenever they become available. How would you have had any trade capital at all left to use on Yelich when the right situation became available?