Lyles to Texas, 2 Years $16mil

[reillymcshane]

There were two Lyles threads started at the same time, so I merged them, in case anyone was wondering. Therefore, there might be some odd, out of order posts in the first page or two.

[timpep]

I would've rather picked up the option on Chase than sign Lyle's for 16mil

[StearnsFTW]

Good God. I might've gone to 10MM for 2 years. Maybe.

 

That's a lot of money for a guy who's been mostly terrible for his career.

 

Good luck Jordan.

[Jaylyn]

At this rate, if Stearns wants to sign starters, it's going to be ones with big question marks with them. Alex Wood, Colin McHugh, Taijuan Walker, maybe Kevin Gausman at best. With the contracts handed out so far, I'm prepping for Logan Forsythe at 3rd and Wilmer Flores at 1st! Crazy money being thrown around!

[dacrew101]

This is getting to be annoying. Brewers have lost a lot of production. Noway they make up for it now. Antanassio is saving up for a new Yacht

[TJseven7]

At this rate, if Stearns wants to sign starters, it's going to be ones with big question marks with them. Alex Wood, Colin McHugh, Taijuan Walker, maybe Kevin Gausman at best. With the contracts handed out so far, I'm prepping for Logan Forsythe at 3rd and Wilmer Flores at 1st! Crazy money being thrown around!

 

To be fair, are there not big question marks regarding Lyles? I had him on my list of pitchers I was interested in but just like Pineda this is 2 mil (maybe 3 mil this time) more than I wanted to shell out for him. I don't blame DS for setting a value and sticking to it. So far it looks like those values are getting pushed around.

 

I don't think Gausman or Lyles has a higher degree of risk. I really want McHugh, but in the pen with Closer potential.

 

The Kendricks news was rough because I would have paid that. Lyles Pineda Wheeler Moose Grandal Hamels, no thanks at those numbers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This is getting to be annoying. Brewers have lost a lot of production. Noway they make up for it now. Antanassio is saving up for a new Yacht

 

Lol Steams did not go to Mark and ask if he could spend $16M on Lyles and get rejected.

 

Mark trusts David to make the personnel decisions when it comes to creating the Brewers roster.

 

The Awesome thing to know is that if the Brewers are in contention in mid July and David calls him on his Yacht, the answer will be Yes, regardless of the question.

[Lathund]

I've been unsure of Lyles both this year and last. Unsure because even if he did outperform his peripherals by more than can be expected, it still felt and looked good. And CC seemed to trust him a bit more than most other starters, letting him go further in games (Which is still a somewhat quick hook by most other teams standards, but still).

 

But then you get to the issue of short term-ism and sample sizes and all that. Pitchers do turn it around. Randy johnson didn't become Randy Johnson until his 30s, Rich Hill was a failed starter turned about to be failed reliever until 35. And so forth. Maybe the Brewers did utilize him differently, got him to do some things differently (Like more high fastballs or whatever it might be), maybe it is for real.

 

But this was Jordan Lyles 9th MLB season. 2019 was the first season where he had an ERA- below 100 (96); or in other words his first above-average season. Career ERA- of 122 (5.11 ERA) and FIP- of 109 (4.52). His two stints with the Brewers are the only two partial seasons where he has been above average. We're dealing with 75 innings out of 909 total. Did he do something drastically different? Not really.. the strikeout rate was his highest, but his walk rates were some of the highest too. The major difference between his time with the Brewers compared to Pirates was a .225 vs .326 BABIP (.307 for his career). Statcast doesn't separate data between team stints, but his one above-average season by ERA saw him record his highest average EV in the statcast era, the highest barrel %, highest hard hit % and second highest walk rate. He also had his highest average launch angle against, which also means he should have a lower BABIP than usual, but not by this much.

 

So he puts up his best ERA numbers when he's getting hit harder than ever before and yet has a career-low BABIP. And a FIP two whole runs above ERA. I still liked what I saw of Lyles as a Brewer despite all that and I think he'll have a pretty good 2020, and I would think the front office sees something in him too having acquired him twice. But it's very easy to see why you'd pass on paying a guy like Lyles $8m per year.

 

I should also add that whether sustainable or not, lucky or not, Jordan Lyles had a huge impact on getting that WC spot. I'll always be grateful for that and wish him all the best.

[Brewcrewin07]

I mean, essentially with what's left in FA you'll be throwing darts and hoping for a "Chacin" year from one of them. So really what's the point then?? Might as well just roll with the garbage(except Woody) that you have. Why spend $$ on essentially the same Pitchers?? It's so depressing that the Crew will seemingly never have 2-3 stud arms in their rotation at one time. I get that it's expensive, but if we are all honest, the ONLY way the brewers as a franchise will ever have a "feared" rotation is to buy arms...they won't home grow them as we have seen. And they seem to refuse to buy them.

 

Sure, you can put together a rotation of "potential" type arms that may have a good year(or two) if everything goes right , and if it works out you look great for that year or two, but when they start to be the Pitchers they actually are again and it blows up...then you don't look so good. The lack of TOR arms is the #1 reason that the Brewers haven't gotten to where we all want them to be.

 

Please note, I am in no way shape or form saying they should have re signed Lyles because he's in the same category as all the others in hoping you can squeeze a good year ir two out of them before they become who they usually are again. I mean you would have thought that now with the rules changing and The Brewers no longer having the luxury of burning through Pen arms late in the season to carry them to the finish line, that they maybe would have realized that if there was ever a time to spend big on a TOR arm that can go deep into a game, now would be it. I guess not. They will always just have "band aids on gaping wounds" type of Pitchers I guess.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I've been unsure of Lyles both this year and last. Unsure because even if he did outperform his peripherals by more than can be expected, it still felt and looked good. And CC seemed to trust him a bit more than most other starters, letting him go further in games (Which is still a somewhat quick hook by most other teams standards, but still).

 

But then you get to the issue of short term-ism and sample sizes and all that. Pitchers do turn it around. Randy johnson didn't become Randy Johnson until his 30s, Rich Hill was a failed starter turned about to be failed reliever until 35. And so forth. Maybe the Brewers did utilize him differently, got him to do some things differently (Like more high fastballs or whatever it might be), maybe it is for real.

 

But this was Jordan Lyles 9th MLB season. 2019 was the first season where he had an ERA- below 100 (96); or in other words his first above-average season. Career ERA- of 122 (5.11 ERA) and FIP- of 109 (4.52). His two stints with the Brewers are the only two partial seasons where he has been above average. We're dealing with 75 innings out of 909 total. Did he do something drastically different? Not really.. the strikeout rate was his highest, but his walk rates were some of the highest too. The major difference between his time with the Brewers compared to Pirates was a .225 vs .326 BABIP (.307 for his career). Statcast doesn't separate data between team stints, but his one above-average season by ERA saw him record his highest average EV in the statcast era, the highest barrel %, highest hard hit % and second highest walk rate. He also had his highest average launch angle against, which also means he should have a lower BABIP than usual, but not by this much.

 

So he puts up his best ERA numbers when he's getting hit harder than ever before and yet has a career-low BABIP. And a FIP two whole runs above ERA. I still liked what I saw of Lyles as a Brewer despite all that and I think he'll have a pretty good 2020, and I would think the front office sees something in him too having acquired him twice. But it's very easy to see why you'd pass on paying a guy like Lyles $8m per year.

 

I should also add that whether sustainable or not, lucky or not, Jordan Lyles had a huge impact on getting that WC spot. I'll always be grateful for that and wish him all the best.

 

Great post!

[JohnBriggs12]

A sleeper out there is Ivan Nova who was 7-5 with a 3.72 ERA the 2nd half for the White Sox, including a 7 game stretch in July and August where he allowed a total of 5 earned runs over 7 starts. He also allowed just one earned run in two starts against the Cubs.

[KCBrewerfan34]

What about Miley?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I mean, essentially with what's left in FA you'll be throwing darts and hoping for a "Chacin" year from one of them. So really what's the point then?? Might as well just roll with the garbage(except Woody) that you have. Why spend $$ on essentially the same Pitchers?? It's so depressing that the Crew will seemingly never have 2-3 stud arms in their rotation at one time. I get that it's expensive, but if we are all honest, the ONLY way the brewers as a franchise will ever have a "feared" rotation is to buy arms...they won't home grow them as we have seen. And they seem to refuse to buy them.

 

Sure, you can put together a rotation of "potential" type arms that may have a good year(or two) if everything goes right , and if it works out you look great for that year or two, but when they start to be the Pitchers they actually are again and it blows up...then you don't look so good. The lack of TOR arms is the #1 reason that the Brewers haven't gotten to where we all want them to be.

 

Please note, I am in no way shape or form saying they should have re signed Lyles because he's in the same category as all the others in hoping you can squeeze a good year ir two out of them before they become who they usually are again. I mean you would have thought that now with the rules changing and The Brewers no longer having the luxury of burning through Pen arms late in the season to carry them to the finish line, that they maybe would have realized that if there was ever a time to spend big on a TOR arm that can go deep into a game, now would be it. I guess not. They will always just have "band aids on gaping wounds" type of Pitchers I guess.

 

I think you nailed pretty much every stage of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression) in one post. I think you are even on the verge of acceptance by the end. The next step is hope. You'll get there.

 

The Brewers starting pitching philosophy is what it is. It's pretty obvious that they have identified spending big money on starting pitching as an inefficient practice, and they have stuck to that. Stearns even said it in his interview on 107.5 on Thursday ... they need to develop starting pitching from within, because they are never going to go out and sign the Coles and Strasburgs of the world. So yeah, you hope you can develop some top of the rotation guys, and hope you can hit on some wild cards from outside of the organization to fill out the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Well personally I hope they go out and get someone decent. Still really early and the market is loaded. That being said Stearns pieced together a garbage rotation last year...hopefully he doesn’t repeat that again, especially with the pen and offense seemingly getting worse.

 

We should stop looking for the Jordan Lyles of the world to save us in July and pitch like aces. That isn’t a thing that will happen consistently...if it did start signing them up to pitch for us in April.

[Never Outhustled]

It’s a huge risk for the rangers. Stearns has a price and wouldn’t go over it. He is going to get another starter or 2, let’s just relax. He was great here but if he signed with us and returned back to how he pitched with the pirates everyone would be criticizing Stearns.

 

We thought it was a huge mistake last year when they went cheap on the rotation, and we were right. Losing Lyles like this is embarrassing. Its becoming clear that Attanasio has slashed the budget.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It’s a huge risk for the rangers. Stearns has a price and wouldn’t go over it. He is going to get another starter or 2, let’s just relax. He was great here but if he signed with us and returned back to how he pitched with the pirates everyone would be criticizing Stearns.

 

We thought it was a huge mistake last year when they went cheap on the rotation, and we were right. Losing Lyles like this is embarrassing. Its becoming clear that Attanasio has slashed the budget.

 

The Brewers are always going to be a value based organization that doesn't overpay. That's the way David Stearns operates. I sort of thought that was pretty obvious by now.

 

I would have done it personally, but not paying $16 million guaranteed to Jordan Lyles is FAR from embarrassing. That is absolutely the top of the market for a guy like Lyles with his track record. The fact that Lyles, Pomeranz and Moose have signed for over what most predictors said they would says a lot about the Brewers' talent evaluation. And it gives me hope that they will be able to continue to acquire guys who are undervalued or misused by other teams.

[zurch1818]

Statcast doesn't separate data between team stints

 

It does if you do a Statcast search and set the team. However it is not the most user friendly. I use woba (actual) and xwoba (which is expected based on Statcast data)

 

Pirates: 0.358/0.328

Brewers: 0.274/0.278

 

According to this data, it seems something happened in his time with the Brewers. However, this data only tells what happened and is indicative of future performance.

 

These are all professional athletes and are all capable of getting "hot" for short stretches. The elite ones have an ability to stay "hot" all season. The 16 million dollar question is it sustainable? One team thought it was.

 

For me, I still am skeptical of his unusually low babip compared to his career. His ERA/xFIP shows this. Because xwoba and xFIP are drawing different conclusions, I would probably say that it is not sustainable.

[adambr2]

I mean, essentially with what's left in FA you'll be throwing darts and hoping for a "Chacin" year from one of them. So really what's the point then?? Might as well just roll with the garbage(except Woody) that you have. Why spend $$ on essentially the same Pitchers?? It's so depressing that the Crew will seemingly never have 2-3 stud arms in their rotation at one time. I get that it's expensive, but if we are all honest, the ONLY way the brewers as a franchise will ever have a "feared" rotation is to buy arms...they won't home grow them as we have seen. And they seem to refuse to buy them.

 

Sure, you can put together a rotation of "potential" type arms that may have a good year(or two) if everything goes right , and if it works out you look great for that year or two, but when they start to be the Pitchers they actually are again and it blows up...then you don't look so good. The lack of TOR arms is the #1 reason that the Brewers haven't gotten to where we all want them to be.

 

Please note, I am in no way shape or form saying they should have re signed Lyles because he's in the same category as all the others in hoping you can squeeze a good year ir two out of them before they become who they usually are again. I mean you would have thought that now with the rules changing and The Brewers no longer having the luxury of burning through Pen arms late in the season to carry them to the finish line, that they maybe would have realized that if there was ever a time to spend big on a TOR arm that can go deep into a game, now would be it. I guess not. They will always just have "band aids on gaping wounds" type of Pitchers I guess.

 

Did not see you a single time in the Narvaez trade thread but I figured you would show up on this one within 30 minutes of the original post. You do not fail to disappoint.

 

Anyway, part of the goal of Stearns and the reason he was hired is to build a sustainable winning model in Milwaukee. As such, knowing how bad these big names usually work out in the end, they're not a team that will likely ever invest in a top dollar FA arm. If you're expecting that, you're probably rooting for the wrong team. Your obsession with big names is just not something that would ever work for this franchise for more than a year or two.

 

The answer for them long-term is to develop their own, and though they've struggled to do that, they may have found one in Brandon Woodruff. You can't just say "they won't home grow them" just because they haven't in the best. They can, and they need to. Don't forget about Corbin Burnes. 2019 was a lost year for him, but he still has the arm talent to bounce back in a big way.

 

Lauer will definitely be in the rotation. The fact that they let Anderson go tells me they do have a plan. And there still are guys that could potentially impact the rotation in 2020 that could be reasonable targets -- perhaps Kuechel, Rich Hill, maybe even Ryu depending on how his market ends up.

[adambr2]

It’s a huge risk for the rangers. Stearns has a price and wouldn’t go over it. He is going to get another starter or 2, let’s just relax. He was great here but if he signed with us and returned back to how he pitched with the pirates everyone would be criticizing Stearns.

 

We thought it was a huge mistake last year when they went cheap on the rotation, and we were right. Losing Lyles like this is embarrassing. Its becoming clear that Attanasio has slashed the budget.

 

It's not embarrassing at all. No one should be surprised that DS wouldn't go 2/16 on a player with fantastic short-term results that looked unsustainable.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd rather get Gausman than Lyles, and I think he will be cheaper than 2yrs 16M Also, there are still a bunch of FA starters on the market, many of which I'd take over Lyles despite the pixie dust he gets every time he becomes a brewer...

[Jopal78]

 

The answer for them long-term is to develop their own, and though they've struggled to do that, they may have found one in Brandon Woodruff. You can't just say "they won't home grow them" just because they haven't in the best. They can, and they need to. Don't forget about Corbin Burnes. 2019 was a lost year for him

 

To be fair, the team is 50 years old and in the last half of that existence you can count the number of homegrown quality starting pitchers to make a substantial number of starts for the Brewers on your fingers:

 

Sheets, Gallardo, Fiers, Nelson and Woodruff.

 

Certainly other small market teams like the Twins have spent money on free agent starters and had success doing so. That’s not Stearns’ game, I get that and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt after back to back appearances in the post season. Yet, it’s legitimate to question why the team isn’t trying to improve their pitching (which was their weakness last year) via free agency, especially in light of the fact that they won’t be able to have an army of fresh arms coming out of the bullpen this September

[sveumrules]

We thought it was a huge mistake last year when they went cheap on the rotation, and we were right. Losing Lyles like this is embarrassing. Its becoming clear that Attanasio has slashed the budget.

 

Not sure who “we” are, but I thought the rotation plan last year of giving the youngsters a shot was both right & necessary.

 

Our starting pitchers ended up the season with a 99 ERA-, so essentially league average & we made the playoffs, hard for me to classify that as a huge mistake.

[Ueckerforpresident]

2 years at 16 mill is surely a premium price to pay for Lyles. Stearns will find better value than that. Despite his 2.45 era with the crew in 2019 his FIP was a full 2 points higher! At a quick glance those numbers suggest that the brewers had excellent defense that was making him look like a stud.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We thought it was a huge mistake last year when they went cheap on the rotation, and we were right. Losing Lyles like this is embarrassing. Its becoming clear that Attanasio has slashed the budget.

 

Not sure who “we” are, but I thought the rotation plan last year of giving the youngsters a shot was both right & necessary.

 

Our starting pitchers ended up the season with a 99 ERA-, so essentially league average & we made the playoffs, hard for me to classify that as a huge mistake.

 

Bingo...1 out of 3 being really good actually is pretty decent odds for young starting pitching. It's too bad the other two crashed and burned last season. Maybe burnes or Peralta take that next step in 2020, and we find a vet starter or two that outperform chacin's dreadful 2019 output.

[Ueckerforpresident]

I'd rather get Gausman than Lyles, and I think he will be cheaper than 2yrs 16M Also, there are still a bunch of FA starters on the market, many of which I'd take over Lyles despite the pixie dust he gets every time he becomes a brewer...

 

I've also thought Gausman would be a nice addition. He seems like a prefect candidate for the crew to pick up on a cheap 1 year prove it deal. I think his best value would be had in the bullpen though, he seemed to work really well there last year.