Bumgarner

[baumer16]

From incarceratedbob on Twitter. He’s actually pretty Reliable and has broken lots of news before

 

Bumgarner Update :

 

Brewers and Reds making heavy pushes (offers on table) Cardinals/White Sox/Twins still involved but need to step it up quickly #MLBNHotStove

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This would either be great or end horribly. Not a lot of middle ground there.

[Fear The Chorizo]

part of me hopes this is like the Darvish sweepstakes where the Brewers got involved in the bidding with a decent offer and it was publicly leaked before the Cubs outbid them...then the Brewers would have 1 less team in this group competing to sign a guy like Keuchel, who I'd probably want more.

 

A couple years ago I was hopeful the Brewers would find a way to trade for Madbum despite the weird injuries he kept incurring - now I'm hesitant to see what his numbers would do pitching half his games away from SF's park and instead doing so in Milwaukee....especially for upwards of $20M+ per season

 

He's still good for 200+IP per season if you let him, which carries value in itself.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewcrewin07 would be absolutely stoked.

[tmwiese55]

Post I had about this in the Wheeler thread, of course I'm out if you're paying any kind of big contract:

 

I'd agree with many that think Dallas seems like the most likely fit in terms of level and contract. But, when someone posted that big list earlier today it got me to thinking Bumgarner might not get anywhere near the deal his 'name' would command and actually end up in the same reasonably priced 3-4 year deal we're thinking on Dallas. I know many here hate him and I fully realize he's nowhere near what he was, but if the cost isn't near what we fear I'd be OK with it. I wanna say he's originally from the NC mountainy type area initially. If not for what ATL just spent on Hamels they could've made sense for him. Cinncy probably isn't too far either to match him up with our old boy, obviously Cincy seems to be all in.

[Warning Track Power]

This would either be great or end horribly. Not a lot of middle ground there.

Second this.

 

For me, he would have to be amazing to deal with his on field persona. Would be a perfect fit for the Cardinals but of course he would revert to 2013-2016 MadBum for the next five years if he went there.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

Post I had about this in the Wheeler thread, of course I'm out if you're paying any kind of big contract:

 

I'd agree with many that think Dallas seems like the most likely fit in terms of level and contract. But, when someone posted that big list earlier today it got me to thinking Bumgarner might not get anywhere near the deal his 'name' would command and actually end up in the same reasonably priced 3-4 year deal we're thinking on Dallas. I know many here hate him and I fully realize he's nowhere near what he was, but if the cost isn't near what we fear I'd be OK with it. I wanna say he's originally from the NC mountainy type area initially. If not for what ATL just spent on Hamels they could've made sense for him. Cinncy probably isn't too far either to match him up with our old boy, obviously Cincy seems to be all in.

There's already been rumors that he'll get a contract worth 100m. It's from bob, so take that as you may. He has a big market right now though so he, wont be cheap. But we've been asking that we spend big on a pitcher for years now. If we get him, we're banking on the name and that he can produce like he did a few years ago and tbh I'm all for it.

[wibadgers23]

This would either be great or end horribly. Not a lot of middle ground there.

 

Yeah pretty much sums it up for me. Would feel more comfortable signing Ryu or Keuchel.

[pacopete4]

This would either be great or end horribly. Not a lot of middle ground there.

 

Fixed. I want nothing to do with this guy and being away from his park at the price that he will cost.

 

 

Over the last 3 years:

Home: 239 IP 3.47 FIP 3.92 xFIP

Away: 209 IP 4.48 FIP 4.64 xFIP

[LouisEly]

part of me hopes this is like the Darvish sweepstakes where the Brewers got involved in the bidding with a decent offer and it was publicly leaked before the Cubs outbid them...

I don't know that the Brewers ever made a serious offer for Darvish - I think they may have been just leaking it to punk the Cubs into spending big on him.

 

Might be the case here too - they could be leaking it to punk the Reds into signing him for a big contract so that they can get the Reds to overpay and then get the guys they really want.

[tmwiese55]

Yea that tweet with that many teams bidding seems like the price will get out of the range that I was talking on my original mention a few days ago at which point I'm out. I was assuming all the collusion would keep the price down, haha.

[monty57]

If you're paying for expected production, I'd be all for it. If you're paying extra for his name and "former post-season monster" status, I'd pass. He could get a bigger contract than his production justifies, and I wouldn't want that.

 

I am kind of surprised he's only 30. MLBTraderumors predicts he'll get 4/$72, and fangraphs predicts 2.1 WAR next year (he was 3.2 in 2018). His big injury was from riding a dirt bike and not from pitching, so there's reason to believe he could live up to that contract, but I sure wouldn't want to go any longer than that. Even four years is kinda scary.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

MadBum just doesn't strike me as a Stearns-type move whatsoever. There are pitchers on the market who will come cheaper, and likely provides better results. I think everyone should take this report with a big grain of salt.

[baumer16]

Rumor was they tried to get him last year too though. And as crazy as it sounds he’s only 30.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumor was they tried to get him last year too though. And as crazy as it sounds he’s only 30.

 

It wouldn't surprise me is they made a play for him at the deadline. There's a huge difference between grabbing him for two months as a rental and signing him to a $100 million deal, though.

[tmwiese55]

I mean they have to be at least talking to anyone not named Cole, Stras, Rendon. No harm in feeling people out and putting in your best offer even if you know it's unlikely they take it. Say we gave like 4/70 and that's it. Or maybe see if he has interest in some kind of creative option stuff and be the team that explores that with people. If he declines and takes a bigger one so be it, on to the next.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Maybe the next time he throws at Braun intentionally it will be on a pick-off play?

[monty57]

MadBum just doesn't strike me as a Stearns-type move whatsoever. There are pitchers on the market who will come cheaper, and likely provides better results. I think everyone should take this report with a big grain of salt.

 

I agree that Stearns normally goes for the young guy in trade, but he did sign Cain to a free agent deal. With the extra money the Brewers have (even if they cut payroll back from last year's levels) I think they'll sign at least one decent sized free agent deal. At 30, Bumgarner isn't really old for a free agent even if it does seem like he's been in the league forever.

[mlloyd10]

Find interesting is his FB was the fastest its been last yr since 2015

[SRB]

Bumgarner is definitely the highest upside arm available to us. When you are somehow only 30 and as talented as he is, a Verlander-type resurgence is not out of the question

[long ball]

He's been closer to league average than elite the last two seasons based on DRA. I'm not opposed to Bumgarner at the right price, but if the $100mm rumors are accurate that's probably beyond the Brewers interest anyway.

 

On top of that, the guy is a total red ass and probably not someone who would be enjoyable to root for.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/57743/madison-bumgarner

[reillymcshane]

I've said before that Bumgarner's home/road splits scare me. Last year at home OPS against him was .619. On the road, it was .840.

 

ERA the last three years at home: 2.63. On the road: 4.61.

 

His ability to eat innings is nice, but I wonder if he's being left in too long. Stats show that he has been hit harder and harder as he faced hitters a 2nd and 3rd time. The following covers 2017-2019:

 

1st time through: .560 OPS

2nd time through: .772 OPS

3rd time through: .852 OPS

 

I honestly don't know if MadBum is a good idea at $15-17M (or more) per year. I like the idea of a guy who can actually throw more than 150 innings. But who knows how that will hold up outside of SF.

[xisxisxis]

Troll...

[RollieTime]

part of me hopes this is like the Darvish sweepstakes where the Brewers got involved in the bidding with a decent offer and it was publicly leaked before the Cubs outbid them...

I don't know that the Brewers ever made a serious offer for Darvish - I think they may have been just leaking it to punk the Cubs into spending big on him.

 

Might be the case here too - they could be leaking it to punk the Reds into signing him for a big contract so that they can get the Reds to overpay and then get the guys they really want.

 

This is what I think too. With how concerning his home/road splits are, I don’t think Stearns will have too much interest. Especially if he’s asking $15+ million per year. I would guess it’s a ploy to get the Cubs, Cardinals, or Reds to throw their money at this guy who appears to be trending in the wrong direction similar to Archer’s career path.

 

I would not be surprised to see Bumgarner have the worst season of his career in 2020 regardless of who he’s pitching for.

[monty57]

MLBTraderumors is saying he's asking for nine figures over five years. Makes sense that he's going to try to get as much as possible, but I don't know that I want the Brewers giving him $20M+/year for five seasons.