Omar Narvaez to Brewers for minor league right-hander Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance draft pick.

[LouisEly]

I really believe you guys are misunderstanding the concept here.

They are.

 

Here's another example - look at what houses sold for in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Florida in 2005. What did those houses sell for in 2009? Same houses.

 

Values change as market factors change, because values are a function of market factors. Market factors are inputs, values outputs, and when the inputs change then the output usually changes too.

[RollieTime]

Nottingham should probably figure out how to not hit sub .700 at AAA all year. Outside of his short AAA stint in 2018 he has been terrible with the Brewers. I would like to see more out of him before he gets an MLB job.

 

I also don't see the movement to 3 catchers happening. Most teams don't have one good catcher and nearly all don't have two good catchers. Three? I don't think so, just not seeing it.

 

I agree completely. I’ve seen a lot of people mention going to 3 catchers since we have the 26th roster spot. Why limit yourself with a third catcher when you could bring in someone with pop off the bench or a guy that doesn’t strikeout much instead of a third guy that can only play one position? I would rather have Thames, Cron, Frazier, someone like that for cheap on the bench who might only get 300 at bats during the season, but have a much better chance of being productive if needing to start or getting that occasional home run off the bench pinch hitting. Plus, you have their bat in the lineup for interleague games as well. No thank you on having 3 catchers on the roster.

[monty57]

So personally speaking here I feel Grandal and Narvaez are a lot more comparable offensively than some may think. Actually Narvaez could outhit Grandal the next three years and I wouldn't even flinch. So now you ask yourself is Grandal's defense (which isn't great either) worth handing out a mega contract to a 30+ year old catcher?

 

To be honest I think we will be really glad to have Pina/Narvaez (plus whatever we spend the extra cash on) over Grandal. Even with the defense shortcomings of Narvaez.

 

I agree with this. If we're basically saying that Grandal's defense is what pushes him to be a much better player, then either Narvaez is the worst defensive catcher ever, or defensive stats have some big imperfections, because Grandal isn't a good defensive catcher. I do worry about Narvaez's defense, but not to the point it's worth 4/$73 vs three non-guaranteed arby years.

 

The money saved in moving from Grandal/Pina to Narvaez/Pina will allow us to improve elsewhere. We have theoretically improved Catcher and Shortstop without spending much money, so we still have our cash reserve to fill our remaining holes. Of course, Stearns could also pull another rabbit out of his hat and find more players in trades like the two he's made. I don't care if we don't spend any of the money if we field a good team.

[LouisEly]

The Brewers were purchased by Mark for $250 million. They’ve been recently valued at $1.15 Billion...

 

I think, as loyal fans who buy the tickets & buy the merch etc, we have a right to think that Mark can spend more money to improve the team. He is gaining multi-generational wealth just from owning the team. I want a World Series Championship.

1) Never confuse cash flow with value. Value is not always a function of cash flow.

 

B) You never make or lose money on anything until you sell it. Just ask people who bought houses in the early/mid 2000's.

[mrn1ceguy]

I haven't seen anyone discuss this but do we know how Narvaez does with handling pitchers and getting the most out of the pitcher (getting them in a good routine, pitch sequencing an all that "intangible" stuff)? It seems like Pina (and especially Kratz before him) could get more out of our pitchers than Grandal could. I have no data to back this up or even know if this data exists, it's more of a feeling or perception thing. Would love to hear that pitchers seem to do well with Narvaez behind the plate.

[brooks_quichenick]

I think a lot of us are just skeptical that the poor little Brewers sob story and their frugal operations over the years are also an easy way to keep making more and more money while saying "aw shucks, we sure tried".

It's a baseball team, not a charity. The Brewers winning a championship isn't going to result in world peace and the end of disease and poverty. Look at the history of the franchise when it comes to spending big money on player contracts and temper expectations accordingly.

 

Ok? I'm not asking for Mark Attanasio to solve poverty ([removed- no politics/socioeconomic commentary!]). I'm just not going to bend over and accept claims from any billionaire hedge fund owner in pro sports about being too strapped for cash to spend money on players.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think a lot of us are just skeptical that the poor little Brewers sob story and their frugal operations over the years are also an easy way to keep making more and more money while saying "aw shucks, we sure tried".

It's a baseball team, not a charity. The Brewers winning a championship isn't going to result in world peace and the end of disease and poverty. Look at the history of the franchise when it comes to spending big money on player contracts and temper expectations accordingly.

 

Ok? I'm not asking for Mark Attanasio to solve poverty ([removed-no policits/socioeconomic commentary!]). I'm just not going to bend over and accept claims from any billionaire hedge fund owner in pro sports about being too strapped for cash to spend money on players.

 

For what it's worth, in his article earlier this week, Haudricourt said it was his belief that the team finished in the red this year. Regardless of what you think of Haudricourt, he is more connected than any of us, so I have no reason to believe this not to be true.

 

No one buys a baseball team to make money, but they aren't going to regularly operate it at a loss either.

[clancyphile]

Nottingham should probably figure out how to not hit sub .700 at AAA all year. Outside of his short AAA stint in 2018 he has been terrible with the Brewers. I would like to see more out of him before he gets an MLB job.

 

I also don't see the movement to 3 catchers happening. Most teams don't have one good catcher and nearly all don't have two good catchers. Three? I don't think so, just not seeing it.

 

Concur.

 

The "third" catcher will likely be someone like Hernan Perez or minor-leaguers like Cooper Hummel and Thomas Dillard, who primarily play other positions, but can catch for a bit if needed.

 

Hummel and Dillard are really exciting offensively. I really like that profile - switch-hitters with power and OBP skills.

[TJseven7]

For those wondering about the real world impact of pitch framing and having a bat-first catcher, it seems to have been a good strategy in recent years

 

2015-2019 framing value (1000+ innings)

 

65. Omar Narvaez, -22.3

..

69. Willson Contreras, -33.7 (2016 WS Champion)

70. Robinson Chirinos, -34.2 (2019 WS Runner-Up)

..

74. Kurt Suzuki, -39.3 (2019 WS Champion)

75. Salvador Perez, -45.3 (2015 WS Champion)

 

Do we get those pitching staffs too, asking for a friend.

 

Just when I thought Hill and our CBA going to the Mariners was the best thing I'd see on here today...

 

You waltzed through the door with this.

 

That's hilarious.

 

Love this trade. Picks absolutely have value but players who have shown success and moved up in the minors in timely fashion have more. I'm very happy we kept all the arms in the system that are showing promise while being at an advanced level for their age. If anything Hill got passed by a few more guys last year. We got a lefty catcher in his prime with 3 years of control left for the CBA. Maybe our 75th pick from 2016 will be ready in 2023 when Narvaez goes to FA.

[FVBrewerFan]

I haven't seen anyone discuss this but do we know how Narvaez does with handling pitchers and getting the most out of the pitcher (getting them in a good routine, pitch sequencing an all that "intangible" stuff)? It seems like Pina (and especially Kratz before him) could get more out of our pitchers than Grandal could. I have no data to back this up or even know if this data exists, it's more of a feeling or perception thing. Would love to hear that pitchers seem to do well with Narvaez behind the plate.

 

I don't think this has been a "thing" since the 1950s. Nothing to back that up either, other than what I was told by a pitching coach a few years ago. Pitch sequencing is is done before a series/game with the analytics people, scouts, coaches etc. In game, the bench does most of that.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I get why people factor in team valuation and an owner's overall wealth when they ask for their favorite team to spend more. I don't agree with it, but I get it.

 

The part that always floors me is how people think the owner's money and team's cash are just co-mingling in an account somewhere. The team's finances are separate from the owner's personal wealth and finances. Do people think an owner is just supposed to write a personal check to cover what the team doesn't have in the bank? Or for more realistic and practical purposes, should they wire 100 million from their personal account to the team account? Even if it were that simple which it's not, would you do that?

[MNBrew]

I’m very happy about getting Narvaez. And I’m also happy that we have kept Pina. I wonder if Nottingham will be part of an upcoming trade...

One of Stearns' driving principles of roster construction is having good depth. Trading Nottingham would seem to go against that idea.

 

I'm not in love with the player Nottingham is right now, but I'm not inclined to rule out the possibility that he could grow into a more productive/useful player over time. . . . Heck, Manny Pina had only 17 plate appearances over 5 games in the majors before the Brewers got him and brought him up when he was 29. As other already noted, Nottingham's only 24.

[areacodes]

I really believe you guys are misunderstanding the concept here.

They are.

 

Here's another example - look at what houses sold for in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Florida in 2005. What did those houses sell for in 2009? Same houses.

 

Values change as market factors change, because values are a function of market factors. Market factors are inputs, values outputs, and when the inputs change then the output usually changes too.

 

I think where many people had an issue with it was that they adjusted the values after the trade and then came to the conclusion that it was closer to a fair deal (that the Brewers still received greater value than the Padres). To use the Zillow comparison, they would most definitely adjust the value of the home but it certainly wouldn’t be based solely on that one sale (they would be looking at all comparable sales and homes) and it would have an effect on the future value of similar homes in the area. But that would be going forward and not applied retroactively to show it was a fair deal when the sale happened.

 

The adjustment after the fact (where the newly acquired Padres asset appreciated and Brewers asset depreciated) appeared reactionary to make their model “work” and any type of adjustments should have been made to the whole model for trades going forward. If they revisited it later in the offseason with adjustments made from new “data” I think there wouldn’t have been as much push-back and it would have made the Zillow comparison more apt.

[reillymcshane]

People, if you want to make a 'brewers financial thread' and discuss those things - please go do it.

 

We have already asked for this to happen, and people are ignoring. Please keep this thread on subject.

 

Thank you.

[wntrtxn21]

Nottingham should probably figure out how to not hit sub .700 at AAA all year. Outside of his short AAA stint in 2018 he has been terrible with the Brewers. I would like to see more out of him before he gets an MLB job.

 

I also don't see the movement to 3 catchers happening. Most teams don't have one good catcher and nearly all don't have two good catchers. Three? I don't think so, just not seeing it.

 

Concur.

 

The "third" catcher will likely be someone like Hernan Perez or minor-leaguers like Cooper Hummel and Thomas Dillard, who primarily play other positions, but can catch for a bit if needed.

 

Hummel and Dillard are really exciting offensively. I really like that profile - switch-hitters with power and OBP skills.

 

I saw Dillard play in Appleton 3 times last year. He is a big guy, maybe 5'11"/235-240 lbs. He played 1B for a couple of games then LF for the other one I saw. He's kind of an enigma. He swings and misses a lot, but he also takes walks. Pretty good power when he makes contact. I never saw him catch and the T'Rats didn't have him listed as a catcher.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ugh not a fan of this one. We should’ve brought Grandal back

 

Grandal age 27 season:

 

.228/339/477/816

 

Narvaez age 27 season:

 

278/353/460/813

 

I think you missed the biggest part. Grandal averages over $18 million and must be paid that much over the next four years no matter how he performs. Narvaez won't get $18 million over the next three years unless he is really good. If he really sucks he will get less than $3 million total. The value of controllable players in arby years I think gets overlooked is they have to earn their money every season or face not getting paid the next.

[Jenkins5]

I hold onto Nottingham and let him compete for job. He’s a 3rd catcher. He is entering age 25 season. Last year he struggled but performed really well in 2018 at AAA. Plus he could be the righty platoon bat at first if we snag a lefty 1B FA or bring back Thames. Not to mention a power bat off the bench.

 

He has value still. He has yet to get a longer look and consistent at bats at MLB level through age 24 but could still be a very solid option for us. He hasn’t played a ton at 1B however has ability to do so.

 

Hill & a comp B pick seems like a very good deal for us. Not a fan of trading away higher pics since our system could use as many picks as possible to reload but value we are getting back is very good

[MrTPlush]

For those wondering about the real world impact of pitch framing and having a bat-first catcher, it seems to have been a good strategy in recent years

 

2015-2019 framing value (1000+ innings)

 

65. Omar Narvaez, -22.3

..

69. Willson Contreras, -33.7 (2016 WS Champion)

70. Robinson Chirinos, -34.2 (2019 WS Runner-Up)

..

74. Kurt Suzuki, -39.3 (2019 WS Champion)

75. Salvador Perez, -45.3 (2015 WS Champion)

 

Do we get those pitching staffs too, asking for a friend.

 

Just when I thought Hill and our CBA going to the Mariners was the best thing I'd see on here today...

 

You waltzed through the door with this.

 

That's hilarious.

 

Love this trade. Picks absolutely have value but players who have shown success and moved up in the minors in timely fashion have more. I'm very happy we kept all the arms in the system that are showing promise while being at an advanced level for their age. If anything Hill got passed by a few more guys last year. We got a lefty catcher in his prime with 3 years of control left for the CBA. Maybe our 75th pick from 2016 will be ready in 2023 when Narvaez goes to FA.

 

First off, congratulations on missing the joke.

 

Secondly, it’s like you missed my 50 other posts in this thread in favor of the trade, mentioning the questionable value the pick has, and I don’t even know Hill’s stats last year...I don’t even care, that’s how much I care about his departure.

 

Really strange that’s the post, in this entire thread, you used to rant on. Which is unfortunate cause you are talking to the wrong person as I don’t dislike the trade.

[adambr2]

I don't get the appeal with Nottingham. He is not that young anymore for someone who hasn't shown any ability to play at this level. His last 3 non Colorado Springs aided minor league seasons he couldn't even crack a .700 OPS in the minor leagues and couldn't hit last year in the PCL where nearly everyone hits. Not a good sign at all for a player who is considered a bat first catcher.

 

I'm ok with letting him ride it out on the 40 for one more year in San Antonio and see what happens, but he simply hasn't progressed enough to be a default part of our future plans.

[LouisEly]

I think where many people had an issue with it was that they adjusted the values after the trade and then came to the conclusion that it was closer to a fair deal (that the Brewers still received greater value than the Padres).

 

The adjustment after the fact (where the newly acquired Padres asset appreciated and Brewers asset depreciated) appeared reactionary to make their model “work” and any type of adjustments should have been made to the whole model for trades going forward.

What a player is traded for is an input - one of many - into a player's value. The inputs changed, thus the output (value) changed. Valid, IMO.

 

The Brewers could turn around and trade Urias tomorrow. What he was recently traded for is one of the inputs into his value, thus he needs to update the value to assess a future trade. He's simply updating the inputs, which changes the output.

[SRB]

I think where many people had an issue with it was that they adjusted the values after the trade and then came to the conclusion that it was closer to a fair deal (that the Brewers still received greater value than the Padres).

 

The adjustment after the fact (where the newly acquired Padres asset appreciated and Brewers asset depreciated) appeared reactionary to make their model “work” and any type of adjustments should have been made to the whole model for trades going forward.

What a player is traded for is an input - one of many - into a player's value. The inputs changed, thus the output (value) changed. Valid, IMO.

 

The Brewers could turn around and trade Urias tomorrow. What he was recently traded for is one of the inputs into his value, thus he needs to update the value to assess a future trade. He's simply updating the inputs, which changes the output.

 

Ok, then his "trade value" is a meaningless black box that should not be treated like an objective numeral figure. In that case it is not his projected value on the field, which is what the average reader interprets the number to mean.

 

But this is a sidetrack from the topic at hand, so I'll stop!

[torts]

I wish you could trade more picks.

[folly412]

Fantastic move to me. There isn't a free agent catcher available to sign who had a higher WAR last year other than Robinson Chirinos, who is 35. Three years that combined may barely cost more than one year of Grandal's deal, and by then you'd hope Feliciano and/or Fry are taking over. He's not great defensively and I don't like always trading away draft picks, but the it's an ideal fit and the cost was little.

[3and2Fastball]

I wish you could trade more picks.

 

Me too. It’d be a good way to at least approach leveling the playing field between small market & big market teams... being able to “trade up” in the 1st Round would allow teams with savvy front offices to acquire and develop top flight talent without having to tank, too

[clancyphile]

I’m very happy about getting Narvaez. And I’m also happy that we have kept Pina. I wonder if Nottingham will be part of an upcoming trade...

One of Stearns' driving principles of roster construction is having good depth. Trading Nottingham would seem to go against that idea.

 

I'm not in love with the player Nottingham is right now, but I'm not inclined to rule out the possibility that he could grow into a more productive/useful player over time. . . . Heck, Manny Pina had only 17 plate appearances over 5 games in the majors before the Brewers got him and brought him up when he was 29. As other already noted, Nottingham's only 24.

 

Mario Feliciano has an ETA of 2020 per MLB Pipeline - so Nottingham has some time, but the clock is ticking to a degree. Then there is Payton Henry, David Fry, and Nick Kahle behind Feliciano, not to mention Cooper Hummel and Thomas Dillard.

 

I won't give away Nottingham, but if I can use him to fill holes, I won't object.