Omar Narvaez to Brewers for minor league right-hander Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance draft pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

IMHO picking up Narvaez is a so-so move. He addresses some needs but also has some weaknesses. Not complaining about that part of it. My concern is dealing away the Comp Pick (this time 'B') for a 2nd straight yr.

 

Last yr the Comp A pick (& the attached bonus pool allotment) was dealt for Claudio. He lasted 1 season before being non-tendered last week. Now the Comp B pick (& the attached bonus pool allotment) has been dealt away.

 

Like it or not, Milwaukee has one of the weakest farm systems in all of baseball. Dealing away opportunities to pick players in the top 80 of the draft & getting more money to sign the talents drafted does not help that. It weakens the foundation of the club further & hurts the opportunity for continued success. Having the extra pick in both years allows for Brewers to explore other draft scenarios (perhaps take a guy that is falling due to signing demands) knowing they have an extra pick & bonus $$ available to them.

 

Many Brewer fans are ticked off by the Cardinals, but give them credit where it is due. They continue to remain relevant & competitive for the post season while they draft & develop talent that can then be used directly by the Major League club or used in trade to get items needed (either in the system or with the MLB club).

 

Again, nothing against Narvaez. He has strengths & weaknesses like all players. I just think the cost to get him was too high for my liking.

 

I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Brewers see an open contention window for the next 2-3 years, and they are jumping through it with both feet. The team has identified weaknesses at the major league level, and has aggressively attacked them. When you do that, another part of the organization is going to take a hit. In this case, it is a hit to the talent level at the lower rungs of the team's minor league system. Fortunately the Brewers have mitigated that talent gap somewhat by being much more active in the international free agent market in Latin America, and have several prospects in the lower parts of the minors that have the talent equivalent of a player drafted at the 71st spot of the draft.

 

When you compare the Brewers' team building philosophy to other finge playoff teams, such as your Indians, it's a matter of preference. The Indians have arguably not done enough to use their crop of good prospects over the years to shore up the major league team. Yeah, they've dealt off highly rated guys like Mejia and Clint Frazier over the years, but have neglected filling their most obvious holes - a lack of talent in the outfield - to supplement the huge talent in the infield. Now they are at the point where they have a lot of big salaries, and are looking at a rebuild, dealing off guys like Lindor to get upper-end minor league talent. They may be looking at a soft rebuild after missing the window.

 

I don't think either philosophy is necessarily right or wrong. But I don't think you can fault David Stearns for being aggressive to fill the major league team's holes with as much talent as he can get.

[reillymcshane]

Meanwhile Tom Haudricourt is still waiting by his Fax Machine for more details...

Nice.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

But with the firings in the scouting department earlier this year the Brewers seem to be relying more on video scouting and a growing analytics department, much like the Astros. So having draft picks isn't really what it was since teams are able to find value anywhere.

 

Yeah, there has got to be some reason they don't see the value in those comp picks. They are very cheap and very controllable players so maybe the inexact nature of judging future performance for someone who's never played in the minors factors into their calculations.

 

Keith Law thinks trading picks is dumb so it's probably a good idea based on that alone

 

MLB draft is largely a crapshoot once you get past the very top picks every year, plus how much true value is losing 1 comp pick in a draft where you still get ~40 other picks in that same draft? I'd guess the value difference between a ~#70 pick and ~#100 pick (assumed next pick is a full 30 teams later) in terms of future MLB value is negligible.

[johnbitzer]

Steamer projects him for only 0.6 fWAR. Our other models project him for a little more, but not by much. Our weighted risk-adjusted value estimate projects him to be worth $6.7M for 2020 against a $2.9M salary. for a surplus of 3.8. For 2021, it's 6.0 against 4.6M, for a surplus of 1.4. For 2022, it's 6.8M against a 6.9M a salary, for a surplus of -.1

[johnbitzer]

No, he's been at 5.1 for the entire offseason.

 

John,

Thanks for stopping in and contributing! If possible, can you use the "quote" feature when responding so we know which post you are responding to?

 

Thanks.

 

Sorry, will do, thanks.

[Soupbone]

For those upset about the comp pick last year the Rangers used it to select Davis Wendzel a college 3B. 22 years old at the time with an above average hit tool but below average power outlook. Had few AB's in the pros. Projects as an average ball player at best. That is not an exciting prospect. This year's traded pick is around 71. Who do you really think they would get with that?

[long ball]

I said this in an earlier thread about Narvaez, but I was skeptical that he'd be a Brewers target given how he has graded out as a pitch framer. The bat is intriguing enough though.

 

Seems like a reasonable platoon with Manny behind the plate. Obviously I wish Grandal was re-signed, but this doesn't seem to be the end of the world. Also likely cheaper than Avila or Castro who were two FA options.

 

Waiting for this Rendon to Brewers announcement any day now.

[JosephC]

I don't have feeling about this one way or the other. They gave up very little in value so there isn't anything bad about it from that angle. But the more I read about Narvaez, the more he looks like the next Johnny Estrada and that guy was a horrible pickup for the Brewers. Supposed plus bat for a catcher with questionable defense that you are willing to live with if the offense is there. .760 OPS would look awesome on paper for a catcher, but Narvaez's defense is so bad that a drop from an .813 OPS to a .760 OPS probably drops his WAR from about 1.7 down to about 0.7 and that's about where Scooter Gennett was when the Brewers released him. I just see little wiggle-room for this player....he probably really doesn't help the club all the much unless he OPS's .800+.

[wildcat2237]

Can Narvaez play first? (Looks like he played one game with the Sox back in 2017)

 

If he is a butcher at catcher, I wonder if they get his bat in the lineup at 1b every so often?

 

I imagine the power numbers will increase playing at Miller Park.

[3and2Fastball]

For those upset about the comp pick last year the Rangers used it to select Davis Wendzel a college 3B. 22 years old at the time with an above average hit tool but below average power outlook. Had few AB's in the pros. Projects as an average ball player at best. That is not an exciting prospect. This year's traded pick is around 71. Who do you really think they would get with that?

 

If the Rangers picked poorly, that is irrelevant. There are plenty of good prospects that a team could pick in that spot.

 

I think we are in a 3 Year “Christian Yelich Window”. These are go for it years, and as such it is a good time to deal picks to help the MLB roster...

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I'm interested in the draft pick discussion, in large part because I think the CBPs are a little overrated. How much better is the 71st player on the board compared with, say, the 110th? The difference in projected value has to be pretty small, and then there's the issue of the error bars around any projection dealing with a young baseball player.

 

It just seems like this is a better way to accrue value. You're making a much surer bet. Of course, Narvaez could be bad or not hit like we think or whatever, but it seems smart to trade a small amount of distant future WAR for a small amount of now WAR, even considering that you're also giving up another player.

 

As others have said, there are just so many ways to acquire talent that I don't know that I buy the "draft and develop" model for small markets. I have a sense that draft picks are a little bit of a market inefficiency, overvalued because of the Cubs and Astros recent narratives. So, I side with DS on this one.

[IndyCrew]

If you sign a player who was offered the qualifying offer, you have to give up your third highest pick, right? Would that be the Comp B pick that we just traded away? If so, it seems like we got value for something we might have been planning on losing.

[liveforoctober]

I don't have feeling about this one way or the other. They gave up very little in value so there isn't anything bad about it from that angle. But the more I read about Narvaez, the more he looks like the next Johnny Estrada and that guy was a horrible pickup for the Brewers. Supposed plus bat for a catcher with questionable defense that you are willing to live with if the offense is there. .760 OPS would look awesome on paper for a catcher, but Narvaez's defense is so bad that a drop from an .813 OPS to a .760 OPS probably drops his WAR from about 1.7 down to about 0.7 and that's about where Scooter Gennett was when the Brewers released him. I just see little wiggle-room for this player....he probably really doesn't help the club all the much unless he OPS's .800+.

 

Is it way too optimistic of me to think pairing him with a defensive minded country mate mentor will upgrade his defensive abilities as time goes on?

[homer]

As others have said, there are just so many ways to acquire talent that I don't know that I buy the "draft and develop" model for small markets. I have a sense that draft picks are a little bit of a market inefficiency, overvalued because of the Cubs and Astros recent narratives. So, I side with DS on this one.

 

Yeah, I would love to be a fly on the wall to hear the Brewers side of this. I'm positive they have a good reason to value the comp pick the way they do.

[MrTPlush]

As others have said, there are just so many ways to acquire talent that I don't know that I buy the "draft and develop" model for small markets. I have a sense that draft picks are a little bit of a market inefficiency, overvalued because of the Cubs and Astros recent narratives. So, I side with DS on this one.

 

Yeah, I would love to be a fly on the wall to hear the Brewers side of this. I'm positive they have a good reason to value the comp pick the way they do.

 

Probably the fact Narvaez will provide more value than the average a player around that pick gives in their career. I mean what does one realistically get at that slot? I would probably be thrilled if we drafted a future Narvaez there. You could have that now instead of waiting 5+ years to get it. You get less control, but it is much more a certainty. How valuable is that player getting drafted taking into consideration you have to wait so long to maaaybe get some return?

 

It probably isn't hard to find a better value on paper trading the pick versus using it yourself.

[SRB]

For those wondering about the real world impact of pitch framing and having a bat-first catcher, it seems to have been a good strategy in recent years

 

2015-2019 framing value (1000+ innings)

 

65. Omar Narvaez, -22.3

..

69. Willson Contreras, -33.7 (2016 WS Champion)

70. Robinson Chirinos, -34.2 (2019 WS Runner-Up)

..

74. Kurt Suzuki, -39.3 (2019 WS Champion)

75. Salvador Perez, -45.3 (2015 WS Champion)

[tmwiese55]

Yea to me I think it's fairly simple in that the chances of that pick even making the big leagues is very small. Sure, it's a numbers game so you can't just give them all away but when you have this Yelich window and our financial limitations to buy players, plus a weak system overall, this is a tool we can use to help the team right now.

[MrTPlush]

For those wondering about the real world impact of pitch framing and having a bat-first catcher, it seems to have been a good strategy in recent years

 

2015-2019 framing value (1000+ innings)

 

65. Omar Narvaez, -22.3

..

69. Willson Contreras, -33.7 (2016 WS Champion)

70. Robinson Chirinos, -34.2 (2019 WS Runner-Up)

..

74. Kurt Suzuki, -39.3 (2019 WS Champion)

75. Salvador Perez, -45.3 (2015 WS Champion)

 

Do we get those pitching staffs too, asking for a friend.

[SRB]

For those wondering about the real world impact of pitch framing and having a bat-first catcher, it seems to have been a good strategy in recent years

 

2015-2019 framing value (1000+ innings)

 

65. Omar Narvaez, -22.3

..

69. Willson Contreras, -33.7 (2016 WS Champion)

70. Robinson Chirinos, -34.2 (2019 WS Runner-Up)

..

74. Kurt Suzuki, -39.3 (2019 WS Champion)

75. Salvador Perez, -45.3 (2015 WS Champion)

 

Do we get those pitching staffs too, asking for a friend.

 

That's next on Stealin' Stearns's shopping list. I'd be happy with any of those offense to start with though.

[KeithStone53151]

Lol. That's a terrible look for Haudricourt.

 

Don’t call him out though. I pointed out how he was wrong on Twitter once and he blocked me. I had to disable my account and create a new one so I could follow him as he does retweet a lot of things that I like to see.

 

What a putz. He'd be way better off just owning it and moving on.

[xisxisxis]

I'm interested in the draft pick discussion, in large part because I think the CBPs are a little overrated. How much better is the 71st player on the board compared with, say, the 110th? The difference in projected value has to be pretty small, and then there's the issue of the error bars around any projection dealing with a young baseball player.

It is very team dependent. If you are the Cardinals or Dodgers, who've been great at draft and develop that pick has a lot more value than to the Brewers. I give credit to Stearns for realizing the value to the Brewers is much lower than the perceived value others view for that pick and to leverage it to get MLB caliber players. If one day the Brewers actually can hire competent people for their draft and develop pipeline, their will likely be a different view of the value of the early picks. Basically if you are so bad at using the 71st pick then it has much more value to trade to another team that values that pick because they can get value out of it.

[wallus]

Is Narvaez PROVED enough though? Asking for someone else.

 

I think we will see lots of Pina and Arcia late game defensive subs this year.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Using MLB Pipeline's current Brewers prospect list, out of the Brewer Top 20 Prospects, 8 of the top prospects were selected at pick #71 or later.

 

So the pick definitely has value. In fact, I'd value it more than Adam Hill, who was a 4th round pick himself. (110th overall selected by Mets)

 

3. RHP Zack Brown 5th Round/ 141 overall pick

7. LHP Andy Ashby 4th Round /125 overall pick

8. C Mario Feliciano CBB Round/ 75 overall pick

11. RHP Trey Supak CBB Round/ 73 overall pick (selected by Pirates in 2014)

12. RHP Drew Rasmussen 6th Round/ 185 overall pick

15. C Payton Henry 6th Round/ 171 overall pick

16. OF Micah Bello CBB Round/ 73 overall pick

18. RHP Braden Webb 3rd Round/ 82 overall pick

[RollieTime]

Stearns with another fantastic trade! Narvaez is a small step behind Grandal with the bat, but they are definitely comparable.

 

Narvaez is a poor defender and even with Grandal being a very good defender, he did not pass the eye test. Not saying that they are the same defensively, but it might not be as significant as it’s made out to be. Pina was a much better receiver than Grandal and it wasn’t particularly close in my opinion. Maybe Narvaez has some warts, but I’m definitely interested in seeing how he looks back there.

 

His bat will play. Our roster is coming together very nicely with still roughly $52 million below payroll from last season. Whether they spend all of that remains to be seen. But they are starting to put forth a pretty dang good lineup with only a couple spots left to fill.

 

CF Cain

2B Hiura

RF Yelich

3B (Leaving open, but man would Rendon fit perfectly now)

C Narvaez

LF Braun

1B

SS Urias

P

 

With how much money they have saved so far, man oh man could they make this offense something special. Bring in Rendon and Kendrick and this offense could literally be top 3 in the game. Talk about RUNS!

[johnbitzer]

Using MLB Pipeline's current Brewers prospect list, out of the Brewer Top 20 Prospects, 8 of the top prospects were selected at pick #71 or later.

 

So the pick definitely has value. In fact, I'd value it more than Adam Hill, personally.

 

3. RHP Zack Brown 5th Round/ 141 overall pick

7. LHP Andy Ashby 4th Round /125 overall pick

8. C Mario Feliciano CBB Round/ 75 overall pick

11. RHP Trey Supak CBB Round/ 73 overall pick (selected by Pirates in 2014)

12. RHP Drew Rasmussen 6th Round/ 185 overall pick

15. C Payton Henry 6th Round/ 171 overall pick

16. OF Micah Bello CBB Round/ 73 overall pick

18. RHP Braden Webb 3rd Round/ 82 overall pick

 

Fangraphs research has shown that its value varies between $2M and $4M during the prospect phase of the player's career. But that depends on when you're valuing the player -- the closer they get to MLB, the higher it typically gets. Also, hitters are typically worth more than pitchers due to the injury risk. For now, at BTV, we placed its value at $3M just to split the difference and average it out.