Nolan Arenado

[brewerhuman]

This is a player I'd trade Hader and Peralta/Burnes in a package for if that's where it has to start. You can feel free to disagree and question my intelligence, but I believe Arenado is the type of talent that you should get a little uncomfortable for if that's what it takes to make your team better. His home/road splits aren't wonderful, but they haven't been gross in 3 of the last 4 years in my quick look at it, if I did it right.

 

I do appreciate what the Brewers are doing, and yes I'd rather be consistently competitive than experience up and down cycles. But it's pretty tough to tell myself right now that acquiring Arenado for whatever the price won't make the team outlook worse going forward than the plan they are currently on. I'll take a two year trial window to make things stick even longer if I have the choice. It's a gamble I'd try to take if it's available.

[Roderick]

So the Arenado issues appear to stem from him being ticked they haven't done a whole lot this offseason.

 

Gee Nolan, think it might have anything to do with the fact the Rockies recently spent like drunken sailors on veteran bullpen arms that have struggled and gave you an enormous contract??

 

At this point he's just positioning himself to opt out after next season and become a FA. He will be on the trade block at the deadline assuming the rockies are out of it, if not sooner should the rift between him and the front office get even more ugly.

 

It bothers me that this is shaping up to be a way that the Cardinals are going to acquire him for peanuts.

 

I dunno, if the rockies really do get to the point they are going to trade him, there would be at least 10 teams making offers and they would take the highest bidder. That might wind up being the Cards, but it would cost alot...and I think regardless of where he goes, Arenado is opting out as long as he stays healthy. That means there would be a lot more teams interested in him for 2 years instead of 7-8.

 

But, I don't think you end up with ten teams bidding. Arenado has full no-trade. So I'm sure he would let the Rockies know which team(s) he would even agree to go to. Plus how much surplus value does he even have over contract for the teams to actually bid on?

[Warning Track Power]

Arenado is the exact player I empty what is left of the farm system for. I understand the Brewers are a small market team and spending the money necessary to absorb his contract, while hopefully extending Yelich, will be exceptionally difficult, but it is how I would build the roster. Small market teams ultimately are successful when building the farm and striking when elite talent is available, much like with Yelich. If the Brewers can get Arenado to waive the no trade to play in Milwaukee, I am all in on that.

 

I simply drool at the idea of a 2-3-4 of Hiura-Yelich-Arenado for the next 5 seasons.

[cesser000]

I simply drool at the idea of a 2-3-4 of Hiura-Yelich-Arenado for the next 5 seasons.

His current contract allows him to opt-out after 2021

[Warning Track Power]

I simply drool at the idea of a 2-3-4 of Hiura-Yelich-Arenado for the next 5 seasons.

His current contract allows him to opt-out after 2021

Understood. Yelich is up after 2022 as well. I am making the assumption Yelich extends and Arenado would not opt-out if he was acquired.

[RollieTime]

Those 3 combined in 5 years from now would cost about $90 million per season lol.

[jerichoholicninja]

So the Arenado issues appear to stem from him being ticked they haven't done a whole lot this offseason.

 

Gee Nolan, think it might have anything to do with the fact the Rockies recently spent like drunken sailors on veteran bullpen arms that have struggled and gave you an enormous contract??

 

At this point he's just positioning himself to opt out after next season and become a FA. He will be on the trade block at the deadline assuming the rockies are out of it, if not sooner should the rift between him and the front office get even more ugly.

 

It bothers me that this is shaping up to be a way that the Cardinals are going to acquire him for peanuts.

 

I dunno, if the rockies really do get to the point they are going to trade him, there would be at least 10 teams making offers and they would take the highest bidder. That might wind up being the Cards, but it would cost alot...and I think regardless of where he goes, Arenado is opting out as long as he stays healthy. That means there would be a lot more teams interested in him for 2 years instead of 7-8.

 

On the surface, yes. But teams aren't lining up to acquire a $35M annual contract. No matter who the player is. You've got the opt out and the no trade too. This is probably going to be a situation similar to Stanton. A couple teams are going to want him but he's going to chose whatever team he wants and that team will get him for next to nothing if he's moved at all.

[Warning Track Power]

Those 3 combined in 5 years from now would cost about $90 million per season lol.

Is that a lot??

 

I just really see the Brewers moves on offense this offseason as pointing to the acquisition of a larger, long term contract. Now perhaps that is the Yelich extension. But each of the following signings are for only one year:

 

-Healy 1 year $1 million

-Sogard 1 year $4.5 million

-Smoak 1 year $5 million ($1m buyout)

-Gyorko 1 year 2 million

-Morrison MiLB deal

 

With Braun deal expiring after this year, Yelich ($14m), Cain ($17m) and Garcia ($10.75m) are the only large offensive contracts on the books for 2021 (for a total of $41.75m). Hiura, Urias will still be pre-arbitration and Narvaez will likely be around $3-4m, which gives the Brewers 6 position players for around $45-$50m.

 

1B and 3B remain a hole and I won't be surprised if that isn't filled by a larger contract. Maybe not Arenado, but someone who could be a large fish in terms of a contract.

[bill hAll Star]

If we're going to operate under the same constraints of what we have (a reasonably high payroll given market size, but not a big payroll) then I don't understand a Yelich extension. Not worth paying $150-200 million (or more) for 1-2 more elite years and then a bunch of years as he fades out as Braun has since 2014 or 2016 or whatever year one believes he did.

[tmwiese55]

If we're going to operate under the same constraints of what we have (a reasonably high payroll given market size, but not a big payroll) then I don't understand a Yelich extension. Not worth paying $150-200 million (or more) for 1-2 more elite years and then a bunch of years as he fades out as Braun has since 2014 or 2016 or whatever year one believes he did.

 

Yea that's almost blasphemy to say around WI at this point with how good he's been. But it's honestly probably the right course of action in order to maintain long term competitiveness (assume trading before his last year or at that deadline if we're not in it).

 

It's a tough balance but I think if I was them I'd be trying to work out an early extension now that he could put some big money in the bank but we also don't have to commit beyond say 34-35ish years old. he'd have to give a discount on it since he's 3 years away from FA or it's not worth it for us (if it's for 35 mil a year then what's the point for us). But if he's 31 and straight FA our market can't give him a 7-8 year mega deal. Unfortunately, I think he will want to hit straight up FA and not meet in the middle in the way I said and I think financially that's the right thing for him to do. Unless he got scared with that injury and would rather just put more money in the bank now than he'll ever be able to spend and not have to worry about it. I doubt it though.

[brewerfan82]

Yeah while I'm sure the fan in me would be happy hearing about an extension I really don't think we *should* want one. We got Yelich on the absolute perfect deal for exactly the years you want him. If we sign him to an extension, you're getting him for a bunch of years that are past his prime for a ton more money. It's basically the same thing as taking the Albert Pujols deal from the Angels. Yes the guy was amazing in his prime, but having that contract soured really quickly, and for a team like Milwaukee could be debilitating.

[mattyo]

Yeah while I'm sure the fan in me would be happy hearing about an extension I really don't think we *should* want one. We got Yelich on the absolute perfect deal for exactly the years you want him. If we sign him to an extension, you're getting him for a bunch of years that are past his prime for a ton more money. It's basically the same thing as taking the Albert Pujols deal from the Angels. Yes the guy was amazing in his prime, but having that contract soured really quickly, and for a team like Milwaukee could be debilitating.

 

 

I've had to explain exactly this to a few of my friends who called me stupid for not wanting to extend Yelich. Also, count me out on wanting an Arenado playing outside of Colorado with that contract.

[MrTPlush]

I am not touching Arenado. We probably don't have a system worthy of getting him without using MLB pieces. On top of that you either empty the farm to watch him leave in two years after paying him crazy money (bad) or he stays because he isn't worth anywhere near what he is about to get paid (also bad).

 

Sounds like a bad idea unless he leads us to a 'ship.

[Warning Track Power]

If we're going to operate under the same constraints of what we have (a reasonably high payroll given market size, but not a big payroll) then I don't understand a Yelich extension. Not worth paying $150-200 million (or more) for 1-2 more elite years and then a bunch of years as he fades out as Braun has since 2014 or 2016 or whatever year one believes he did.

The only way a Yelich extension makes sense is for him to get new money in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the only way it makes sense for the Brewers to extend is if it adds about 3 years to the end of the current deal. In other words, Yelich is currently signed for 3 years $41.5 million. If the Brewers were to offer a 3 year extension for say $150 million, but were able to spread that additional $150 million over the next six years instead of the last three, Yelich's contract would become 6 years $191.5 million. Yelich gets new money over the next three years and an annual salary on par with Harper, Machado, etc. The Brewers get Yelich for three additional years.

 

Would he sign that? I don't know. Would he be tempted? I would think so given he will be coming into his age 31 season when he becomes a FA. Would the Brewers offer it? I don't know.

[tmwiese55]

I think he would take that but I also think that's too much for us to give 3/150 more. If there isn't a discount (in this scenario you're actually paying more than open market) then it doesn't really make sense. I just don't think there's a solution here unless he really wants to find a way to make it work and hates injury risk. It has to be on him to help. Financially he should play it out and take the 7/8 for 300 mil that he gets when he hits FA. ETA: See the Yeli thread now so let this get back to Arenado.

[brewcrewdue80]

We could have just signed Donaldson and gotten just as much a complete player for less money and not trading away anyone in the farm.

 

No Donaldson means 0x1bil chances of making a move for him. What is that? 0 chance. Donaldson just had a better year via BWar by .4 over Arenado. JD didn't bat at a home field called Coors.

 

Side note add on Arenado. He is massively increased in value because of Coors. His HRs may not be affected as much but his 2b,3b and RBI are affected a lot. He likely doesn't even becomes a 100RBI bat. Why? Well let's take a look at Colorado's team Batting Splits:

 

Ope. There it is, .300/.362/.522 Home and .230/.289/.388 Road Split. .362 OB vs .289 OB.

Arenado 32% more doubles at home for his career, 350% more triples at home, and 55% more RBI at home for his career.

 

You're not acquiring a 110+RBI machine Overall for Milw we had a .329OB last season. We don't possess that huge gap for doubles and triples. Those are mostly now outs. You go to Arenado's career OPS and it sits .799 on the road. As a Team Milw sat at .767. Sounds like those for Arenado want an .830OPS 3b paid 35mil a year for 2years and shed a lot from the farm for a bat that end of season totals they'd bark to acquire someone that is actually near .900OPS his doesn't cut it. What can we trade Arenado for in return to replenish our farm and get that bat that's .900OPS at 3b?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.

[brewerhuman]

His OPS on the road the last 5 years averages out to .834. I'm not saying that's wonderful but I think it's a little bit helpful when making the case that he's not good away from Coors Field. Not as good, sure, but I don't think anyone would be. You don't know until you get him away from there. Maybe it's hard to adjust to the road games when you play 81 in that altitude. I don't know. I have a hard time buying the framing that he's not productive enough.

 

FWIW, his career OPS at Miller Park is 1.299, second highest of any stadium he's played in.

[brewcrewdue80]

DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.

 

And that's fine. My point stands on the park effects not only for him but his teammates. .362 vs .289 OB. Slg .522 to .388. That will affect his RBI and runs scored unless he's moving to a team that has the slash rates Colorado had at home. And not one team fill that stat line. Houston did .352 and .495 as best in Baseball. Milw was 9th and 12th in baseball for OB and Slg. It's unclear if we've improved on that and at this point most must feel it's likely at or worse as the roster stands. If you tried to translate a full season for him based on his road splits for his career, that comes to roughly 29HR/85RBI So just trying to show the stat line wouldn't be 41HR and 125RBI after 156 games played for Milwaukee. Now take a line such as .275 32HR and 92RBI and are you really considering paying 35mil a year for that? Are you considering trading away valuable prospects to complete this trade?

 

The ideas of signing Lester or Darvish are a better idea than considering a trade for Arenado. Colorado knows they made a huge mistake with his contract and if they can get out of it they will be LoL-ing at the sucker they pawned him off to. Please, please any team in the Central do it.

[JosephC]

We can talk about money coming off the books after the season, but Arenado is still making 35 million in 2020 and it's hard to fit that into the equation when it sure looks like the owner is cutting 20 million off the payroll.

[RollieTime]

Arenado will surely see some type of dip in his offensive numbers. Knowing that, is it really worth giving up good prospects while also needing to shell out $35 million per season? I would say no. If you knew for a fact that you were getting gold glove defense, a guy that will hit .300, and hit 35+ homers, yeah absolutely it could be worth it. But any slip from that performance and you can bank on the Brewers having a tough time fielding a competitive team for the foreseeable future.

 

I would rather split $35 million into two significant upgrades than one guy anyway. While not having 7 years of a massive contract on the books that will absolutely limit our spending for a long long time.

[Oxy]

Gyorko, Lutz, Ray, Burnes, Ashby, Zavolas and Antoine Kelly for Arenado and $50M ($20M for 20-21. If opt out is exercised we get to choose to get Lutz, Ashby, Zavolas or Kelly back as a PTBNL. If he stays with us we get $6M/yr from 22-26).

[bill hAll Star]

DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.

 

DJ is an outlier that benefited from the juiced ball with his style of hitting and going to an easier home run ballpark. He had 19 HR there which significantly boosted his numbers. He was perfect for hitting the ball over that short porch in RF.

 

Arenado's numbers would drop significantly other than maybe hitting homers at Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

 

He wouldn't be bad, but he'd fall off a bit.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.

 

DJ is an outlier that benefited from the juiced ball with his style of hitting and going to an easier home run ballpark. He had 19 HR there which significantly boosted his numbers. He was perfect for hitting the ball over that short porch in RF.

 

Arenado's numbers would drop significantly other than maybe hitting homers at Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

 

He wouldn't be bad, but he'd fall off a bit.

 

Man, when I stumped for the Brewers to sign LeMahieu last offseason, all I was met with is "he's a Coors Field guy, he'll be terrible outside of Coors." Well, guess what ... outlier or not, LeMahieu was a stud for the Yankees. When you are a good player, you're a good player anywhere. Arenado didn't get that huge deal just because he can hit well at Coors. He got it because he's a stud. And he's going to be a stud in Arlington, Washington D.C., Milwaukee, or wherever else he ends up.

 

 

 

Except St. Louis. If he ends up in St. Louis, he's gonna suck

[TURBO]

There is no way I get into a bidding war for Nolan Arenado. We can't afford it in cash, and we can't afford it in prospects.

 

Our farm team is our future, once we start draining it for a 2 year rental who we don't know the effects of not playing 81 games at Coor's Field, it gets too damn risky.

 

It's fun to live in a dream world, where we can acquire guys like this, but it just isn't realistic.