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Nolan Arenado


Arenado is a .799 OPS player outside of Coors Field. Nobody is playing a player 30 million per for a .799 OPS. Moreover, the Rockies have no reason to eat any salary because he’s a monster in their home park. Both of which mean a trade involving Arenado is extremely unlikely.
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Arenado is a .799 OPS player outside of Coors Field. Nobody is playing a player 30 million per for a .799 OPS. Moreover, the Rockies have no reason to eat any salary because he’s a monster in their home park. Both of which mean a trade involving Arenado is extremely unlikely.

 

You have to be really careful with Colorado splits. The road splits get suppressed because they get used to how the ball plays in Colorado. When hitters leave that park they almost always outproduce their road splits by a significant amount.

 

I don't see us making this trade though, our minor league depth just isn't there for it.

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OK - so I know that there are zero rumors about this guy being available, but what would it take the A's to part ways with Matt Chapman? I'm sure it would have to start with Hiura, but with our pickup of Urias - we do have some middle infield depth now that would soften that blow. Would a Hiura/Peralta/Turang type offer even get them to consider moving Chapman?

 

Or, does Urias still have enough value to try to move him over there in a Urias/Peralta/Ashby/Feliciano type deal.

 

I hate to give up Hiura, as his bat could be just as good (if not better) than Chapman. But, Chapman is the full package with the bat and the glove. Again, a real pipe dream to even think the A's would consider trading him at this point. But, DS likes to do things outside the box - so this had me doing just that.

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Hiura put up a .893 OPS last year. Chapman isn’t close to the hitter than Hiura is, especially if the ball stops being juiced... Hiura can hit for average & power. No chance do I trade Hiura for anyone not named Mike Trout...
The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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Hiura put up a .893 OPS last year. Chapman isn’t close to the hitter than Hiura is, especially if the ball stops being juiced... Hiura can hit for average & power. No chance do I trade Hiura for anyone not named Mike Trout...

 

I love Keston as much as the next guy, but Chapman is a 2-time gold glove winner (in just 2.5 seasons thus far), has 16+ career WAR already (at least according to Baseball Reference), career .841 OPS and has finished in the Top 10 of the AL MVP voting each of the past two years. And, he's put up those offensive numbers in a pretty poor hitting environment out in Oakland. That's pretty damn good, and at least with Keston - we have some middle IF depth right now with Urias, Sogard and Arcia. Obviously, you'd be banking on Urias living up to his potential though and being a really solid 2B over the next 5-6 years.

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Hiura put up a .893 OPS last year. Chapman isn’t close to the hitter than Hiura is, especially if the ball stops being juiced... Hiura can hit for average & power. No chance do I trade Hiura for anyone not named Mike Trout...

 

Dodgers come calling offering Bellinger or Buehler for Hiura straight up, you're telling them no?

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While admittedly highly unlikely, I think the “best way” for the Brewers to pull off an Arenado deal would be a three team deal that included Josh Hader going to a contender; prospects (likely close to the majors ones) going to the Rockies; and significant cash coming back to the Brewers (along with obviously Arenado).
Not just “at Night” anymore.
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While admittedly highly unlikely, I think the “best way” for the Brewers to pull off an Arenado deal would be a three team deal that included Josh Hader going to a contender; prospects (likely close to the majors ones) going to the Rockies; and significant cash coming back to the Brewers (along with obviously Arenado).
Not just “at Night” anymore.
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  • 4 weeks later...
The Cardinals are gonna end up getting Arenado, aren’t they? Now there is a report out there that they have begun exchanging names in a potential deal.

 

The Cardinals must be feeling the pressure to counter the Brewers Gyorko/Sogard platoon.

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I'm not as in love with Arenado as many. I'm skeptical of any Rockie with extreme home/away splits. I'm not saying he isn't great, but probably not as great as Colorado has made him appear.

 

Also, long ways away from this being a done deal.

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I personally don't dream about giving up serious value to take on a seven year, two hundred thirty four million dollar commitment.

 

A similar package to what's been floated for STL is probably something like Houser, Peralta, Turang & Ashby.

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I think Matt Carpenter has the ability to kill any chance of Arenado going to St. Louis. The Cardinals would almost certainly have to dump on contract on the Rockies, and Carpenter would be the obvious choice. The Cardinals have stated that they will not put Carpenter back in the outfield, and with Goldschimdt at 1B and Arenado at 3B, that would leave 2B as the only option for Carpenter and I don't think there is any chance they'd put him there. Carpenter now has no-trade protection, and he could easily demand the 2022 be made a guaranteed year which would make him as untradeable as Kyle Seager.

 

There is always a chance that Carpenter would agree to a trade to Colorado and maybe just demand a reassignment bonus of a few million to waive his no-trade, but Carpenter has all the power here and will be the one who makes the call on where he plays.

 

Have to wonder how much of the Rockies motivation to move Arenado comes from the opt-out? Maybe they are comfortable with the average annual value of the deal, but think they will get outbid for him if he does opt-out...and if that's the case then trade him now and take what you can get. If so, would the Rockies be OK with the 5 years, 110 million left on Goldschmidt's deal (22 million per season, far less than Arenado and no opt-out to worry about, St. Louis obviously picks up all remaining signing bonus payments)? Goldschimdt was by no means bad but probably was considered a slight disappointment in St. Louis last year (.821 OPS). That would put Carpenter at 1B and Arenado at 3B for the Cardinals. Daniel Murphy is basically on a 1 year deal (mutual option for 2021), but he could get kicked to 3B in Colorado. Obviously a long-shot, but it should would be a blockbuster if Arenado headed to St. Louis and Goldschmidt plus a few other pieces (including Liberatore) headed to Colorado. I would imagine there probably wouldn't be too many Brewer fans crying about this. Arenado is the better all-around "value" player, but very few hitters have beat up Brewer pitching like Goldschimdt. 1.097 career OPS against Brewer pitching.

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This seems to be turning into a some what testy situation.

 

Arenado made some... interesting... comments about the trade rumors.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-responds-to-trade-rumors

 

 

It feels like if the Brewers were interested in committing $30mm+ annually to a third baseman it would have been Rendon via free agency, but Arenado would look pretty good as a Brewers lol

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If the Brewers can steal signs from the Rockies, why not a third baseman?

 

I don't think this can happen with all the offers that are sure to cross, but damn would I love Arenado, worries be damned.

 

Plus, the Rockies GM is from Milwaukee. Gotta think there's a discount to be had! :laughing

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So the Arenado issues appear to stem from him being ticked they haven't done a whole lot this offseason.

 

Gee Nolan, think it might have anything to do with the fact the Rockies recently spent like drunken sailors on veteran bullpen arms that have struggled and gave you an enormous contract??

 

At this point he's just positioning himself to opt out after next season and become a FA. He will be on the trade block at the deadline assuming the rockies are out of it, if not sooner should the rift between him and the front office get even more ugly.

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So the Arenado issues appear to stem from him being ticked they haven't done a whole lot this offseason.

 

Gee Nolan, think it might have anything to do with the fact the Rockies recently spent like drunken sailors on veteran bullpen arms that have struggled and gave you an enormous contract??

 

At this point he's just positioning himself to opt out after next season and become a FA. He will be on the trade block at the deadline assuming the rockies are out of it, if not sooner should the rift between him and the front office get even more ugly.

 

It bothers me that this is shaping up to be a way that the Cardinals are going to acquire him for peanuts.

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So the Arenado issues appear to stem from him being ticked they haven't done a whole lot this offseason.

 

Gee Nolan, think it might have anything to do with the fact the Rockies recently spent like drunken sailors on veteran bullpen arms that have struggled and gave you an enormous contract??

 

At this point he's just positioning himself to opt out after next season and become a FA. He will be on the trade block at the deadline assuming the rockies are out of it, if not sooner should the rift between him and the front office get even more ugly.

 

It bothers me that this is shaping up to be a way that the Cardinals are going to acquire him for peanuts.

 

I dunno, if the rockies really do get to the point they are going to trade him, there would be at least 10 teams making offers and they would take the highest bidder. That might wind up being the Cards, but it would cost alot...and I think regardless of where he goes, Arenado is opting out as long as he stays healthy. That means there would be a lot more teams interested in him for 2 years instead of 7-8.

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As much as I want Arenado as a Brewer, I'm going to actively force myself to not even think about the idea because there's not even a remote chance it happens. I'm going to use that hope to try and will him to a team other than the Cardinals.
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