2020 Roster Turn Over

[Warning Track Power]

Say the Brewers sign Wade Miley and Jordan Lyles to fill out the rotation with Woodruff, Houser and Lauer. Would you be *content* going into 2020 with that as your 1-5?

 

*Content given the likelihood of the Brewers being priced out of Strasburg, Cole, Bumgarner, Wheeler*

[monty57]

I think what concerns some Brewer fans is not that we have not made a ton of moves by The 1st of December or that a majority of the team is set , but the amount of holes to fill on this team , not only the need for pitching upgrades ,leftover from last season but also all the new ones that opened with the exodus of key everyday players that help lead us to the playoffs last year.For two years We got a taste of playoff baseball and we like it, is it realistic to expect or hope for every year in a small market? probably not but we as fans still want it.

 

Some of the players lost will hurt, but most of the players lost were getting expensive and didn't provide much value above simply putting a "replacement level" guy out there for league minimum.

 

Aguilar -0.3 WAR

Arcia -0.1 WAR (still on team, but could be relegated to utility "utility guy")

Austin 0.1 WAR

Perez -0.1 WAR

Saladino -0.5 WAR

Shaw -0.9 WAR

Thames 1.6 WAR (I'm surprised we let him go)

 

Albers -0.2 WAR

Anderson 1.8 WAR (like Thames, moved for salary reasons)

Claudio 0.6 WAR (new rule makes him less valuable)

Guerra 1.3 WAR

Jeffress -0.4 WAR

Nelson -0.5 WAR

 

Grisham 0.7 WAR & Davies 2.6 WAR were traded, so we got value back for them. The ones that hurt the most are Mous, Grandal & Pomeranz. These guys were all free agents, so we didn't have any claim over them. They signed big deals elsewhere.

 

We have a lot of money (at least for by Brewer standards) to fill some holes with quality. I'm excited to see who we bring in. As shown above, many of the holes were created by dropping someone with negative "WAR value" last year so simply getting a positive-value guy there would be an upgrade. Really, they were bigger "holes" when we had a negative WAR guy making seven figures at the position. Cutting that guy and replacing him with a league-minimum zero WAR guy improves production and saves money to upgrade elsewhere.

 

Our current depth chart has Braun starting at LF and 1B, and has Suter and Burnes as both starters and relievers. I guarantee those things won't happen. Stearns will make a lot of moves between now and Spring Training. Attanasio is going to want a team with realistic playoff chances.

 

Enjoy this, it's fun.

[sveumrules]

I'm afraid you are vastly over-rating Mr. Jeff McNeil. Especially his power potential...He only had 28 HR in over 1600 minor league at bats and he will be 28 years old already in 2020.

 

There are 183 players with at least 800 PAs in MLB between 2018-19.

 

Of those 183 players McNeil ranks 13th in wRC+ (141) & 10th in K% (12.1).

 

Even without plus power in the minors McNeil still ran about a 135 wRC+ while striking out a paltry 11.2% of the time. The guy can flat out hit.

[TURBO]

Say the Brewers sign Wade Miley and Jordan Lyles to fill out the rotation with Woodruff, Houser and Lauer. Would you be *content* going into 2020 with that as your 1-5?

 

*Content given the likelihood of the Brewers being priced out of Strasburg, Cole, Bumgarner, Wheeler*

 

That all depends on what their offensive line-up looks like. I'm inclined to say no though...

[KeithStone53151]

I laughed way too hard at this. How can anybody take this guy seriously with the line "incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia is currently penciled in as the starting third baseman"? Does this guy know anything at all about baseball?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-brewers-could-tumble-down-the-standings-if-their-offseason-doesnt-change-course/

[MrTPlush]

I laughed way too hard at this. How can anybody take this guy seriously with the line "incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia is currently penciled in as the starting third baseman"? Does this guy know anything at all about baseball?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-brewers-could-tumble-down-the-standings-if-their-offseason-doesnt-change-course/

 

I mean, it is kinda true...it’s a silly article to write before the winter meetings though. Real silly.

[MrTPlush]

I don't understand why everyone assumes Urias will be on the opening day roster, let alone the lead-off hitter. Cain will be the lead-off hitter on opening day.

 

Stearns trashes SS (Arcia) when offseason starts, says they need to improve, gets Urias, and then talks about him improving the SS position.

 

His chances to be on the opening day roster (assuming he is healthy) is near 100%. He wasn’t traded for to be riding the bus in AAA.

[TURBO]

I laughed way too hard at this. How can anybody take this guy seriously with the line "incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia is currently penciled in as the starting third baseman"? Does this guy know anything at all about baseball?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-brewers-could-tumble-down-the-standings-if-their-offseason-doesnt-change-course/

 

I mean, it is kinda true...it’s a silly article to write before the winter meetings though. Real silly.

 

 

Sadly, most of that article is true, except for the part about Arcia being penciled in as our starting 3B... True today, December 3rd, but hopefully, not true on opening day. Lots of off season left. Lots of things can and will be happening...

[CheezWizHed]

Last year was a short-term build that was somewhat lucky to reach the playoffs. The offense (heavily built on short term) lead the team through a lot of pitching struggles. It probably wouldn't have worked a second year, nor to build it long-term that way. I would've liked Yaz or Moose resigned, but not really at those numbers for past-prime players.

 

Milwaukee will never be able to continually sustain a playoff run with our limited payroll. And we burnt through a lot of draft capital during the last couple years. So a quick rebuild isn't the worst idea.

 

If Urias/Lauer for Davies/Grisham is an example, I'll take more.

[clancyphile]

Jeff McNeil followed up a rookie season in which he put up an OPS of .852, with a .916 last year, along with an All Star appearance. Casey McGehee never approached that. He's also a lefty hitter with emerging power that would be a perfect fit for Miller Park. In my opinion, you probably couldn't find a better trade candidate. I certainly wouldn't do McNeil straight up for Hader, but he'd be a prime piece coming back in any deal.

 

Put it this way: McNeil could see a Yelich-style jump in his power stats. Smith might also benefit. Davis becomes a right-handed bat to slot between Yelich and McNeil. They all had an OPS+ of 134 or better. For Hader and Lutz... a good return.

 

A 1-6 of Urias, Hiura, Yelich, Davis, McNeil, and Braun is not bad.

 

I'm afraid you are vastly over-rating Mr. Jeff McNeil. Especially his power potential...He only had 28 HR in over 1600 minor league at bats and he will be 28 years old already in 2020.

 

We have a season and a half of MLB data as well, and the power has jumped. Miller Park may help more.

 

If I can get McNeil, Davis, and Smith for Hader-Lutz, that gives the Crew enough young guns to make a real run through 2024. Hiura, Urias, McNeil, and Davis are all team-controlled though 2024. Add Turang, maybe the Crew hits on some other players in later rounds...

[TURBO]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

[Eye Black]

Regarding the topic of roster turnover via non-tenders, I found these nuggets from Rosenthal’s most recent article at The Athletic interesting...

 

As noted by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, teams non-tendered 40 arbitration-eligible players on Monday, up from 27 last year and 19 the year before. So, while top free agents such as catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas are faring well, the addition of so many players to the market undoubtedly will crush those in the middle and lower classes, similar to what has happened in recent offseasons.

 

Clubs are using the system to their advantage, knowing that by flooding the market they can get better deals than they would in arbitration. Top free agents effectively are on islands, no longer dragging the rest of the salaries upward. The solution for the players is to negotiate a new economic system, something they will attempt to do in the next round of collective bargaining.

 

The current labor agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2021.

[timpep]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

One of the best relief pitchers in baseball is still a relief pitcher. Hader had half the WAR of McNeil last year and McNeil has an extra year of control. He's probably more valuable than Hader in his own right.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

One of the best relief pitchers in baseball is still a relief pitcher. Hader had half the WAR of McNeil last year and McNeil has an extra year of control. He's probably more valuable than Hader in his own right.

 

WAR is a pretty terrible way to compare relief pitchers to position players. And Hader has enormous value. And the Brewers are under no obligation to deal him. If a team wants him, they are giving up a ton. That's why people are suggesting McNeil+, and it is not far fetched.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

One of the best relief pitchers in baseball is still a relief pitcher. Hader had half the WAR of McNeil last year and McNeil has an extra year of control. He's probably more valuable than Hader in his own right.

 

That is also why WAR is a horrible way to compare pitchers vs position players in terms of value to an organization - particularly relievers.

 

If the brewers dealt hader to the mets straight up for mcneil I would expect mark A to fire Stearns on the spot.

[3and2Fastball]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

One of the best relief pitchers in baseball is still a relief pitcher. Hader had half the WAR of McNeil last year and McNeil has an extra year of control. He's probably more valuable than Hader in his own right.

 

Not to actual MLB GM’s...

 

If they were both free agents, Hader would get a much bigger contract

[brewerfan82]

It would be a mistake to use Lutz as a throw in. No need to add anyone in a Hader deal, he is the premier reliever in MLB, trade him and keep the prospects if at all possible. (not that I want to trade Hader to begin with, just sayin)

One of the best relief pitchers in baseball is still a relief pitcher. Hader had half the WAR of McNeil last year and McNeil has an extra year of control. He's probably more valuable than Hader in his own right.

 

Not to actual MLB GM’s...

 

If they were both free agents, Hader would get a much bigger contract

Seems like a market inefficiency to me and one that could possibly be exploited.

[Devinep]

Regarding the topic of roster turnover via non-tenders, I found these nuggets from Rosenthal’s most recent article at The Athletic interesting...

 

As noted by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, teams non-tendered 40 arbitration-eligible players on Monday, up from 27 last year and 19 the year before. So, while top free agents such as catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas are faring well, the addition of so many players to the market undoubtedly will crush those in the middle and lower classes, similar to what has happened in recent offseasons.

 

Clubs are using the system to their advantage, knowing that by flooding the market they can get better deals than they would in arbitration. Top free agents effectively are on islands, no longer dragging the rest of the salaries upward. The solution for the players is to negotiate a new economic system, something they will attempt to do in the next round of collective bargaining.

 

The current labor agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2021.

 

I don’t think it’s teams purposely flooding the free agent market. Rather I think it’s the outdated arbitration process. It too heavily weighs things like RBIs, for example. That’s why guys like CJ Cron, who have good power stats but not much else (OBP, defense, Baserunning) get non-tendered. It isn’t that teams don’t want to keep some of those guys, but arbitration will reward them with over market value.

[walleye]

I get it the market is flooded with non tendered players and ultimately there may be some bargains to be had, but the million dollar question is can we get similar value to what we lost? The way the visits and dollar amounts of the top FAs is looking so far I don’t believe we will be in on any of the top self hitters or pitchers so is there enough 2 Nd tier free agents to make this team competitive?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

IMO people are really overstating what has gone out the door. Grandal is the only guy that's irreplaceable. We will be much worse at catcher. The rest are just guys. Moose played hard for the Brewers and was great to have, his production can be replaced with competence and some luck. There is going to be so much new blood on this roster there is just absolutely no point in getting worked up over it yet.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't understand why everyone assumes Urias will be on the opening day roster, let alone the lead-off hitter. Cain will be the lead-off hitter on opening day.

 

Stearns trashes SS (Arcia) when offseason starts, says they need to improve, gets Urias, and then talks about him improving the SS position.

 

His chances to be on the opening day roster (assuming he is healthy) is near 100%. He wasn’t traded for to be riding the bus in AAA.

 

Well, Urias is not leading off. That's my main point. And you're reading way too much into Stearns comments about Arcia. With all the non-tenders why did he pay Arcia? So yes, it is possible Hiura/Arcia start the season and they don't want Urias wasting away on the bench and give him regular ABs in AAA. Possible. It's not like Urias was raking in his limited time in the majors.

[liveforoctober]

I get it the market is flooded with non tendered players and ultimately there may be some bargains to be had, but the million dollar question is can we get similar value to what we lost? The way the visits and dollar amounts of the top FAs is looking so far I don’t believe we will be in on any of the top self hitters or pitchers so is there enough 2 Nd tier free agents to make this team competitive?

 

Short answer, in this case, is yes. If you are asking if we will be able to replace Grandal and Moose.. then probably no, but they were free agents. If we are talking about the non-tender pool (which we are) then the production we are replacing is Guerra, Claudio, Shaw, etc... and yes, I believe we can find those type players out there.

[monty57]

I get it the market is flooded with non tendered players and ultimately there may be some bargains to be had, but the million dollar question is can we get similar value to what we lost? The way the visits and dollar amounts of the top FAs is looking so far I don’t believe we will be in on any of the top self hitters or pitchers so is there enough 2 Nd tier free agents to make this team competitive?

 

Short answer, in this case, is yes. If you are asking if we will be able to replace Grandal and Moose.. then probably no, but they were free agents. If we are talking about the non-tender pool (which we are) then the production we are replacing is Guerra, Claudio, Shaw, etc... and yes, I believe we can find those type players out there.

 

Agree. We could sign a superstar, but I think it's more likely that we'll try to make up for losing Grandal by being average/above-average at positions where we were below average last year.

 

OF: Braun will be Braun, Yelich will be Yelich, and we hope to get a bounceback from a healthy Cain. Gamel is a fine backup.

 

IF: Pina and Nottingham/Freitas should bring league-average production, but this is an obvious offensive downgrade from last season. Stearns picked up Urias to be an upgrade at SS, and we should get a full year of Hiura instead of suffering through Shaw's 2019 production for half a season. 1B & 3B are big question marks that will have to be addressed.

 

SP: We need help here, and I expect that's where some money will be spent. We have three "locks" (although nothing is a lock with Stearns) in Woodruff, Houser, and Lauer, but let's face it... none of these guys is a sure thing. I'd love to see us get someone we could slot in ahead of Woodruff. Ideally, I'd like a #1 and a veteran "innings eater," which would take pressure off the young guys and the bullpen.

 

RP: Hopefully Knebel is back at 100%, and Hader can go back to the role he played in 2018, where he's much more valuable. I also hope that Suter can be a multi-inning reliever rather than a starter, which would help the pen a lot. They have some roles to fill, but a healthy Knebel will make our pen a strength.

 

Mous was good for 3.2 WAR last year, but some of that was at 2B, which should be somewhat offset by a full year of Hiura. Shaw/Mous at 3B is a little easier to overcome, as Shaw brought -0.9 WAR last year and half of Mous would be 1.6, totaling 0.7 WAR to be replaced. Thames brought 1.6 WAR, while Aguilar (-0.1) and Austin (0.1) offset each other for 0 WAR value. If a full year of Hiura offsets what Mous did at 2B last year, we should be able to adequately replace our 1B/3B production from 2019, even if we don't land one of the star players. Any additions to the rotation would be welcome, and depending on what we do with 1B/3B could be what makes us a better team in 2020 than we were in 2019.

 

It's not easy, but it's early and it will be interesting (and fun) to see how Stearns puts the pieces together.