Shaw, Claudio, Nelson, Saladino, Guerra Non-Tendered

[Jopal78]

I'm not a fan of letting Nelson walk. For what he was pre-injury, I think it would be worth giving him another chance to bounce back. He has a full offseason where he is healthy to try and ramp it back up. This move is one I fear blows up in Stearns's face.

 

I'm in agreement on this. Would love to see Jimmy come back on a reduced deal. I could see a rebuilding or cash-strapped high payroll ballclub take a chance on him with a short, incentive-laiden deal in the hopes that he shows enough success to be either a deadline flip candidate or value rotation guy on a contender. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pitching for the Pirates or Cubs next year.

 

Jimmy Nelson is an interesting case. He suffered major shoulder injuries where he missed nearly two whole years in the majors. When he came back his results in the minors were underwhelming and he got lit up in the major leagues until the final series of the season.

 

Because Nelson has 5+ years of service time, he is unlike Mike Minor when the Royals signed him with two years of control remaining. He's probably going to have to prove himself in spring training on a non-roster deal. In a business where money talks, there probably isn't that many grudges with the people who hold the money.

[adambr2]

It's not completely out of their hands. They submit a salary figure they think is fair and state their case. If the arbiter rules in favor of the player, it's because the player's side made a more compelling case. Arbitration works when two parties can't reach an agreement.

 

That's the way it's designed, that's often not the way it works in reality. They can't submit a salary that they necessarily think is fair, they submit a salary that they think would have a chance to be awarded in arbitration.

 

If the Brewers would have tendered Schoop last offseason for instance, a "fair" offer based on his estimated FA might have been 5M, which is what he actually ended up getting.

 

If the Brewers had submitted that offer in arbitration, they would have been slaughtered in arbitration and Schoop would have gotten whatever figure he submitted, probably $10-$11M. The Brewers would have had to submit an overpay offer of about 8-9M to have a chance of winning even knowing that would be an overpay relative to his free agent value.

 

Thus the increased non-tenders and broken arbitration system.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With respect to Nelson, the Brewers paid him close to $8M over the past two seasons and allowed him to use facilities & team trainers while rehabbing that shoulder injury. That's $8M over two years with basically zero return on the field in terms of MLB production. If they wanted to be crass they could have non-tendered him after his shoulder surgery revealed the long road ahead of him in terms of rehab, and Nelson would have potentially earned roughly $1.75M with the team, not almost $10M. Obviously, the Brewers kept Nelson around that long because they were hoping following rehab he would be worth that investment - there unfortunately just wasn't enough proof from the mound that Nelson could regain anything close to the form that made him their best pitcher in 2017. The Brewers were also supportive of him during a difficult time with his twins and wife medically last year, too.

 

I doubt there's any hard feelings from Nelson's camp provided they have a realistic perspective of the baseball side of things from the Brewers' point of view. The injury couldn't have come at a worse time for both Nelson and the Brewers, and it still stings. Who knows, maybe he's back with the team in the spring.

[liveforoctober]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

 

I'm not certain this is accurate.

 

I'm going to make up numbers here.. but if David Stearns told Shaw and his agent that he was comfortable offering Shaw $X to compete for a job on our team and Shaw/Agent came back with "we think we are worth 2x or 3x that offer" ... if Stearns' response isn't offensive - ex. "I hope you are right and I hope you can get that much for you and your family ... I will set you free to explore the market and find the best deal for you.. if you are unhappy with what you find ... please come back and we will have that offer for you..."

 

I don't think I would be offended if I was Shaw. We always hear the cutthroat nature of professional sports but I don't think feelings have to be smashed in all cases. If Stearns is as good with people and words as he is at accumulating talent ... a return of any of our non tenders is not out of the question in my opinion.

[HiAndTight]

Claudio had a poor 2019 season. That doesn't mean it was a bad trade at the time. Hindsight is 20/20...

 

It was bad at the time and there was no hindsight because a lot of posters said it was bad when it happened.

 

 

This was by far the most annoying move made by the Brewers and the justifications for it were almost as bad. I don't remember what metic was used, but if you voiced your displeasure with that move, there was always someone cutting and pasting a list of how Claudio was right up there with Hader, Kimbrel and a couple other elite relievers of the last 2 years(before the trade).

 

 

But as others mentioned pages earlier, it's far easier for more to accept that we made a bad deal and then just moved on rather than holding onto that guy because of what we gave up and continuing to throw good money after bad. Sterans does not seem to have any type of connection to players he acquired, only players who can help the Brewers. Which should be obvious, but it's human nature to what to be proven right and take longer to admit a mistake.

[Jopal78]

It's not completely out of their hands. They submit a salary figure they think is fair and state their case. If the arbiter rules in favor of the player, it's because the player's side made a more compelling case. Arbitration works when two parties can't reach an agreement.

 

That's the way it's designed, that's often not the way it works in reality. They can't submit a salary that they necessarily think is fair, they submit a salary that they think would have a chance to be awarded in arbitration.

 

If the Brewers would have tendered Schoop last offseason for instance, a "fair" offer based on his estimated FA might have been 5M, which is what he actually ended up getting.

 

If the Brewers had submitted that offer in arbitration, they would have been slaughtered in arbitration and Schoop would have gotten whatever figure he submitted, probably $10-$11M. The Brewers would have had to submit an overpay offer of about 8-9M to have a chance of winning even knowing that would be an overpay relative to his free agent value.

 

Thus the increased non-tenders and broken arbitration system.

 

Schoop actually signed for 7.5 million. Teams don't compare similar players to determine pay in a vacuum.

 

Using Schoop for example at this time in 2018; he was 26 years old, averaged 26 homers per 162 games, had a .257 batting average across 2484 career at bats. Played a premium position 3B, and was not a liability defensively. He made 8.5 million for the 2018 season. Anyone here would give 10 million dollars for those offensive numbers from a third baseman when viewed in a vacuum. In fact, Moustakas made more than that with the Brewers in 2019.

 

The Brewers cut him loose over concerns his poor play down the stretch would spill into 2019. The Twins got him at a bargain for 7.5 million due to the bear market that was the 2018 off season. Don't forget Schoop went out an hit .256 for the Twins with 23 homers in a 121 games. If Moustakas is getting 16 million per in 2020, Schoop is probably going to be just a bit behind in AAV for 2020.

[JimH5]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

 

I'm not certain this is accurate.

 

I'm going to make up numbers here.. but if David Stearns told Shaw and his agent that he was comfortable offering Shaw $X to compete for a job on our team and Shaw/Agent came back with "we think we are worth 2x or 3x that offer" ... if Stearns' response isn't offensive - ex. "I hope you are right and I hope you can get that much for you and your family ... I will set you free to explore the market and find the best deal for you.. if you are unhappy with what you find ... please come back and we will have that offer for you..."

 

I don't think I would be offended if I was Shaw. We always hear the cutthroat nature of professional sports but I don't think feelings have to be smashed in all cases. If Stearns is as good with people and words as he is at accumulating talent ... a return of any of our non tenders is not out of the question in my opinion.

 

We'll see about that. I think the Brewers (and maybe all teams) have been pretty frugal when it comes to exercising option years. Ben Gamel might be the next to find that he really just signed a 1-year deal. They moved Lucroy when he was finally about to get paid. Thames was deemed too expensive. They ask a lot for players to do promotions and appearances, etc. We'll see if there's any pushback on any of that stuff in the future.

 

I don't recall any non-tenders returning to their old clubs.

[et bbal]

Taken from Rotoworld

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Athletics have brought Jake Diekman back on a two-year deal with a club option for 2022.

The deal is worth $7.5 million guaranteed. The A's cut Diekman loose at the end of October by declining his $5.75 million mutual option for 2020, but the two sides were able to hammer out a new agreement.

 

The next blurb was about 3 KC non-tenders who were expected to resign with the Royals so it does happen.

[adambr2]

It's not completely out of their hands. They submit a salary figure they think is fair and state their case. If the arbiter rules in favor of the player, it's because the player's side made a more compelling case. Arbitration works when two parties can't reach an agreement.

 

That's the way it's designed, that's often not the way it works in reality. They can't submit a salary that they necessarily think is fair, they submit a salary that they think would have a chance to be awarded in arbitration.

 

If the Brewers would have tendered Schoop last offseason for instance, a "fair" offer based on his estimated FA might have been 5M, which is what he actually ended up getting.

 

If the Brewers had submitted that offer in arbitration, they would have been slaughtered in arbitration and Schoop would have gotten whatever figure he submitted, probably $10-$11M. The Brewers would have had to submit an overpay offer of about 8-9M to have a chance of winning even knowing that would be an overpay relative to his free agent value.

 

Thus the increased non-tenders and broken arbitration system.

 

Schoop actually signed for 7.5 million. Teams don't compare similar players to determine pay in a vacuum.

 

Using Schoop for example at this time in 2018; he was 26 years old, averaged 26 homers per 162 games, had a .257 batting average across 2484 career at bats. Played a premium position 3B, and was not a liability defensively. He made 8.5 million for the 2018 season. Anyone here would give 10 million dollars for those offensive numbers from a third baseman when viewed in a vacuum. In fact, Moustakas made more than that with the Brewers in 2019.

 

The Brewers cut him loose over concerns his poor play down the stretch would spill into 2019. The Twins got him at a bargain for 7.5 million due to the bear market that was the 2018 off season. Don't forget Schoop went out an hit .256 for the Twins with 23 homers in a 121 games. If Moustakas is getting 16 million per in 2020, Schoop is probably going to be just a bit behind in AAV for 2020.

 

Yeah, I remembered wrong on Schoop.

 

A better example would be when we non-tendered Chris Carter. Had we tendered him, we would have been forced to offer 8-10M and he signed for much less.

 

My point was, there are many examples in recent history of arbitration estimates exceeding likely FA value of players, thus the increased amount of non-tenders of good players, thus the need for an overhaul of the arbitration system.

[jerichoholicninja]

Taken from Rotoworld

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Athletics have brought Jake Diekman back on a two-year deal with a club option for 2022.

The deal is worth $7.5 million guaranteed. The A's cut Diekman loose at the end of October by declining his $5.75 million mutual option for 2020, but the two sides were able to hammer out a new agreement.

 

The next blurb was about 3 KC non-tenders who were expected to resign with the Royals so it does happen.

 

Players resigning with a team after being non-tendered is not uncommon. It's usually for guys who were injured and barely played for a couple years who would have gotten a raise simply due to service time or bottom of the 40 man guys. I think there's a decent chance Nelson resigns for less. The Brewers treated him very well.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Taken from Rotoworld

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Athletics have brought Jake Diekman back on a two-year deal with a club option for 2022.

The deal is worth $7.5 million guaranteed. The A's cut Diekman loose at the end of October by declining his $5.75 million mutual option for 2020, but the two sides were able to hammer out a new agreement.

 

The next blurb was about 3 KC non-tenders who were expected to resign with the Royals so it does happen.

 

Players resigning with a team after being non-tendered is not uncommon. It's usually for guys who were injured and barely played for a couple years who would have gotten a raise simply due to service time or bottom of the 40 man guys. I think there's a decent chance Nelson resigns for less. The Brewers treated him very well.

 

As someone else said, Nelson was basically paid 8 mil the last 2 years to rehab and pitch a few innings.

 

Claudio is pointless because of the new 3 batter rule. He should never face righties.

 

Saladino is the literal definition of "just a guy".

 

Guerra is on the wrong side of 30 and pitched a LOT last year. Wouldnt be surprised if he declines quite a bit this year.

 

Shaw is the big question mark. Brewers spending Arbys money on a guy who hit .157 and 7 dingers isnt a great idea. (Imo)

[djoctagone]

Wouldn't shock me if nelson is still with the brewers in 2020...they just couldn't pay him anything close to the arby number he would have gotten with how the system is set up. He was still hitting mid 90s so he will get more chances to show he can get mlb hitters out with somebody next season.

 

Shaw, Claudio, Saladino, and Guerra are just guys who ran out of minor league options and that really cost them value to the brewers moving forward.

alex claudio and travis shaw each have an option remaining.

[MadThinker88]

Wouldn't shock me if nelson is still with the brewers in 2020...they just couldn't pay him anything close to the arby number he would have gotten with how the system is set up. He was still hitting mid 90s so he will get more chances to show he can get mlb hitters out with somebody next season.

 

Shaw, Claudio, Saladino, and Guerra are just guys who ran out of minor league options and that really cost them value to the brewers moving forward.

alex claudio and travis shaw each have an option remaining.

 

While that is true, you have to remember that players reaching a certain amount of major league service time can decline being optioned to the minors or being sent out on a minor league rehab assignment.

 

Unfortunately I cannot recall exactly what that number/ amount of service is. It could be 5 years of service. Again, not sure the amount number.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

First in Boston now us? He needs a change of scenery as often as I need a change of underwear.

[trwi7]

 

First in Boston now us? He needs a change of scenery as often as I need a change of underwear.

 

I think this might be more of a you problem.

[Lathund]

As for non-tendered players returning to their old clubs, I don't recall that ever happening.

 

There was one example less than 24h ago:

 

I mean it's not super common, but I remember seeing it in past offseasons too.

[JimH5]

As for non-tendered players returning to their old clubs, I don't recall that ever happening.

 

There was one example less than 24h ago:

 

I mean it's not super common, but I remember seeing it in past offseasons too.

 

Thanks for the correction. We'll see what the Brewers do with these guys.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

As for non-tendered players returning to their old clubs, I don't recall that ever happening.

 

There was one example less than 24h ago:

 

I mean it's not super common, but I remember seeing it in past offseasons too.

 

There was actually 4-5 instances of this happening just yesterday.

[djoctagone]

it's five years of major league service. entering 2020 spring training, neither player has achieved that.

[liveforoctober]

..and another case of a non-tender re-upping with his original team: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28221615/lefty-tyler-anderson-returns-giants-one-year-deal

 

It happens 10-15 times every year. I'm not sure where others were getting the notion there has to be bad blood because of a disagreement in contracts...

[MrTPlush]

I'm not sure where others were getting the notion there has to be bad blood because of a disagreement in contracts...

 

It is almost like...no one said that.

[homer]

I'm not sure where others were getting the notion there has to be bad blood because of a disagreement in contracts...

 

It is almost like...no one said that.

 

 

 

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

[monty57]

Even if a player is a little offended, it's the agent's job to remain level-headed and get the best deal for the player, even if that is with the team that just non-tendered him.

 

I think that if it comes down to two similar deals, many players would stick with their previous team. They probably already have living arrangements there, their kids have friends, etc. It's tough to uproot your family. It's often necessary for players to do it, but if given two similar deals, I'd probably choose to stay where the family is comfortable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even if a player is a little offended, it's the agent's job to remain level-headed and get the best deal for the player, even if that is with the team that just non-tendered him.

 

I think that if it comes down to two similar deals, many players would stick with their previous team. They probably already have living arrangements there, their kids have friends, etc. It's tough to uproot your family. It's often necessary for players to do it, but if given two similar deals, I'd probably choose to stay where the family is comfortable.

 

That's why I could see any/all of these non-tenders come back. Shaw and Saladino are likely looking at minor league deals, while Claudio and Guerra are probably looking at sub $2 million 1-year MLB deals. I could see a split contract with Nelson, or some sort of minor league deal with an opt-out deadline.

[clancyphile]

Claudio and Guerra, I think are about right.

 

For Shaw, I see an incentive-laden deal with a club option or two.

 

Nelson gets a minor-league deal with NRIs... maybe there is something like what the Crew did for Jorge Ortega - a two-year deal, with Nelson having opt-outs (July 1 each year, and after the first year).