Shaw, Claudio, Nelson, Saladino, Guerra Non-Tendered

[MrTPlush]

In favor of a low payroll season or not? Great discussion to have in March if it's clear by then payroll will be lower. Until then it just sounds like crazy internet guy hot takes.

 

It will be lower, someone mentioned they are at about $75mil now. Safe to say the Brewers aren’t spending $45mil by April. They could, but I doubt it.

 

When you have a payroll believed to be pretty much max possible the only direction to go the next season is pretty much down. That being said I’d rather slash payroll by $15mil than make a dumb signing just to fill payroll space. Unless of course we are talking 1 year deals, then bombs away. Signing bad 2-3 year deals cause we have money is not wise.

 

They can’t cut it too much or fans are going to start searching for pitchforks and if the teams struggles the march to Miller Park will start. Once you are competing and decide to have a big payroll increase you better keep as close to it as possible.

[Kelbysdaddy]

The only non tender that bums me out is jimmy. If he gets back on track next year, it can really come back to bite us.

[homer]

Since the other thread was locked and no one seems to believe me...or wants to..

 

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

·

32m

The #Brewers will undoubtedly have a smaller payroll this year, which several rival executives acknowledged during GM meetings https://twitter.com/haudricourt/st

 

Your link doesn't work.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The only non tender that bums me out is jimmy. If he gets back on track next year, it can really come back to bite us.

 

That could still happen with the brewers

[MNBrew]

I think the Brewers gave Shaw every chance last season.....

 

 

Yea that's garbage. The Brewers recalled Shaw in June when Hiura was raking and Shaw was hovering around .200 in his AAA rehab assignment. I'll be interested to see what Shaw eventually signs for.

I see why that reads like a potential slam on the Brewers, but I see it more as a sales pitch by Shaw's agent, endorsing his player and realizing what his player may need to be successful. There's just no way the agent is blind to how lousy Shaw's 2019 was, but he needs to find his player a team who has enough faith in him for 2020.

 

I'm still a bit bummed Shaw didn't work out last year and that he's now gone. He's a solid player if he's not completely out of whack. Clearly the Brewers feel $4.5M is too much of a gamble to find out if the 2017-18 Shaw still is in there somewhere.

 

I would've liked to see Nelson tendered, too, but again it's the cost-benefit (or value) factor like Shaw. I'm also a little wary of the cost of replacing Claudio's & Guerra's roles & production, whether in terms of dollars, player assets in return, or a combination of the two. On the other hand, I'm relieved that it didn't take a whole offseason for Saladino's teflon coating to wear off.

[DannoMac21]

The brewers will surely make moves to fill some holes but with what impact on the clubhouse. The kind of guys Moose Thames Grandal Davies etc were in the clubhouse were a key to grinding out the last two Septembers. This is a chemistry experiment as much as anything.

 

What evidence do we have that Thames, Davis, Grandal were positive locker room guys?

[AdvantageSchneider]

2018 we were 22cnd in payroll and we won the division. Last year we were 14th in payroll and won a wild card spot. We are the 30th sized market in MLB. I really don't see what there is to complain about. People that think the organization or Mark A is cheap clearly don't have a good idea of what other MLB owners spend or rather don't spend on their payroll. If you aren't happy with Mark A you really shouldn't be a Brewers fan. Go be a fan of the Yankees.

[Jaylyn]

The only non tender that bums me out is jimmy. If he gets back on track next year, it can really come back to bite us.

 

That could still happen with the brewers

I understand why, but I hope they bring Nelson back. If they don't, I'm still going to follow him close just to see how he performs after the surgery. If anyone deserved a mulligan for last season it was Jimmy.

[Oxy]

I'm officially excited now. I was not looking forward to having the same roster next year. Moose and Grandal are the only guys I'll "miss," and I didn't want them for the contracts they signed. A lot is going to happen in the next 3 months.

[danzig6767]

2018 we were 22cnd in payroll and we won the division. Last year we were 14th in payroll and won a wild card spot. We are the 30th sized market in MLB.

And 8th in attendance

[TJseven7]

I don't understand why anyone thinks we will spend on big ticket players. It's not how this franchise has gone about their business. Let's sign Rendon to a 7 years at 35 mil a year Strasburg to 6 years and 30 mil a year. Does that make this team a title contender? After Strasburg and Woodruff we have what exactly? Yelich Rendon Hiura are filthy. Then what?

 

Since DS started this team hasn't drafted amazingly well. This team hasn't signed anyone long term bigger than Cain. He's been league champion of 1 year wonders. Those are the filler piece non-needle movers that allow the stars to win games.

 

1b, Thames out of Korea, Aguilar who "couldn't play 1b" off the WW. Choi came through here as well for nothing. Chacin for 1 star year. Miley. Lyles for the 2nd half this year. Gio. Filler is what this guy does best. Grabbing value and being patient comes in a close 2nd. The patient part didn't take as long as you'd expect because for the most part he's doing it properly and squeezing blood out of stones.

 

All these guys mean next to nothing. Jimmy is a shame. Guerra at 4 mil after being worked hard. Claudio was worked hard and now has to face 3 batters as a loogy. Shaw cost 4.6 mil and was a disaster all year. DS has shown the ability to scrap heap a non disaster for less than 5 mil. Saladino, not even a discussion.

 

Cheap filler is what this guy does best. I'm not worried about him rounding out the roster at all and I don't see this team plunging into big additions via FA. Keep buying guys on 1 year deals with a TO for a 2nd who have fallen through the cracks. Round out the team with those. Build a pitching staff 12 options deep and don't lead the year off with kids who might not be ready.

 

2018 this team was closer to a title than last year.

C Pina and Kratz (see they've done it without Grandal)

1b Thames plucked from Korea and Aguilar off the scrap heap

2b Villar Perez Schoop (Hiura is a huge upgrade)

SS Arcia was bad then too

3B Shaw playing his best (cancels out Hiura)

OF Braun (same)

OF Cain (hopefully the same)

OF Yelich has improved

Traded in Moose

 

Why was that team good?

Rotation stability

Chacin Anderson/Woodruff Guerra/Peralta Suter/Miley

Davies Gio

Everyone in the pen was sub 4. With studs to wipe out endings.

 

None of these guys are world beaters. None of the positions we are missing from 2018 are needle moving talent. They were buy low upside options throughout. Last year it all went wrong. 2018 it all went right. The reality will fall in the middle. Those pieces seem to be easy for DS to find.

 

There's no reason to worry, nor any reason to pay TOP flight FA prices. It's not what MKE does. It's not what MKE should do.

 

Start the year trusting Woodruff and Houser in the rotation. Peralta Suter in the pen. Add 3 guys who are exactly that, GUYS, like Lyles Miley Chacin types who can have a year and sit sub 4. Have Lauer, Burnes, Suter, Peralta and AAA guys we can stash in the event the vets don't pan out. Continue looking to build the super-pen model (We should all be excited about the prospects of Small Kelly and Rasmussen in the pen if they don't make it as a starter) and get Hader the heck out of the closer role.

 

I'd rather pay 24 mil on 3 guys on 1 year deals who could have a great year then spend 30 million on a guy who we need to have a good year for the next 6 years.

 

Play the odds, it's what metrics teams on a budget do.

[Roderick]

[sarcasm]The Red Sox officially win the Shaw deal.[/sarcasm]

 

We still have Black from the Dubon trade.

[Roderick]

What's funny is that the #1 guy on the team's organizational depth chart at 3B (Erceg) at this moment might get taken next week in the Rule 5 draft. Unless Matthias is a 3B I suppose.

 

Has Erceg hit at all since his first year in the minors? He was old enough and there was no one else that he kept get promoted... I don't really think he will get taken.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What's funny is that the #1 guy on the team's organizational depth chart at 3B (Erceg) at this moment might get taken next week in the Rule 5 draft. Unless Matthias is a 3B I suppose.

 

Has Erceg hit at all since his first year in the minors? He was old enough and there was no one else that he kept get promoted... I don't really think he will get taken.

 

Erceg really hasn't hit well since he was in A ball in 2016. You're right ... he keeps moving up the ladder simply because the team's organizational depth at 3B is terrible. But as of right now, depending on where you put Mathias, and if they consider Urias a SS, Erceg is it.

 

This is pretty depressing right now: http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/?c_id=mil Thanksfuly it's all but guaranteed to change and get much, much better.

[Jopal78]

It would not surprise me for a minute if Jimmy Nelson and Junior Guerra return, maybe even Alex Claudio.

 

Succinctly stated, the role those players would have on the 2020 team did not match up with the salary they were likely to get.

 

Jimmy Nelson would likely have been a back of the rotation starter or long man out of the pen. The team believes they can fill that role for less.

Claudio, as others have pointed out, is a victim of the rule changes. 45 of his 83 appearances were for less than one inning. As a middle reliever who doesn't pitch complete innings there isn't much value.

Guerra is 35 and his career FIP of 4.53 with the Brewers paints a different picture than his 1.27 whip and 3.79 era with the Brewers. With a healthy Knebel and Hader at the back of the bullpen Junior was basically another veteran middle reliever where the team believes they can fill the role at a better price.

 

What remains to be seen is if those players simply want a change of scenery now that they have been cut loose.

[MrTPlush]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

[JimH5]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

[TURBO]

Well, we hear all the time that this is a business. Loyalties, etc., no longer matter. It's all about the $$$$.

 

If a player is non-tendered, and the best offer they get is from the team that dumped them, I think most would return. After-all, this is a business...

[adambr2]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

 

Then maybe MLB and the MLBPA should actually work to fix a terrible arbitration system. Teams aren't dumb. Why would they offer arbitration to a player knowing the outcome is completely out of their hands and they'll likely, in some examples, pay $10M in arbitration to a player whose skills and production is worth half that on the open market?

 

The arbitration system is broken and should have been fixed years ago.

[MadScientist]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

If the Brewers are offering a player more than other teams, even if it is less than what they would get in arbitration, the player will sign with the Brewers. Less than the arbitration value could still be a pay raise for some, just less than the arbitration formula. For someone like Nelson, they might be able to work out an incentive laden contract. However for all of them, once the Brewers have said they won't meet the arbitration number, it makes complete sense to see their value on the open market.

 

Additionally with a pitcher like Claudio, the formula almost certainly does not reflect the value of the player under the new rules for relief pitchers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

 

My guess is your line of work has a few more opportunities than that of a professional baseball player if they want to stick to being a professional baseball player - odds are pretty damn good no matter where non-tendered players wind up they're getting a paycut from what they would have received via arbitration based on the fact they didn't perform well enough to justify a team that controlled them before reaching free agency didn't want to foot an undeserved salary.

 

Frankly, if all the guys the Brewers jettisoned yesterday wind up with division rivals next season and play significant roles on those teams, I like the Brewers' chances all the more at winning the NL central in 2020. These were good baseball moves based on cutting ties with players who would otherwise have cost the Brewers far more than their performance warranted based on their 2019 performance and perceived role with the 2020 team.

[buckybrewer232]

I'm not a fan of letting Nelson walk. For what he was pre-injury, I think it would be worth giving him another chance to bounce back. He has a full offseason where he is healthy to try and ramp it back up. This move is one I fear blows up in Stearns's face.

[MrTPlush]

I am guessing the players union and players in general probably frown upon a player signing with the team that non tendered them. There are starting to be more and more rumbling with players upset with the arbitration system that is suppose to finally pay them not really working. I believe non tenders have dramatically increased the last three years. Giving the vibe a team can start non tendering players and getting them for less is not exactly what players want.

 

Not saying a player would take less to go elsewhere, but wouldn't be shocked if similar offers cause the departing player to give the old team the middle finger.

 

I think any non-tendered player would consider it insulting to get an offer from the team that non-tendered him. They had every opportunity to bring him back, but only want to now at a discounted price?! I wouldn't take that deal, and I'd try to land on a division rival just to be spiteful.

 

One of my great joys in life was walking away from a job after being expected to accept a pay cut. I can't imagine a competitive athlete would be any more forgiving than I was.

 

Especially if said team is being cheap over a mil or two. I think player take that negatively. Some player maybe more than others.

 

I STRESS they probably are taking the best deal they regardless of what team offers it, but if two similar deals show up...yah I think the players union and players want you to take the new teams deal. Then you aren't sending a message to teams they can be cheap and still get you back...thus leading to more and more arbitration cases being non tendered...which is not good for the players.

[JimH5]

It's not completely out of their hands. They submit a salary figure they think is fair and state their case. If the arbiter rules in favor of the player, it's because the player's side made a more compelling case. Arbitration works when two parties can't reach an agreement.

 

As for non-tendered players returning to their old clubs, I don't recall that ever happening. Maybe Stearns will get one of these guys coming back, but I would bet against it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not a fan of letting Nelson walk. For what he was pre-injury, I think it would be worth giving him another chance to bounce back. He has a full offseason where he is healthy to try and ramp it back up. This move is one I fear blows up in Stearns's face.

 

I'm in agreement on this. Would love to see Jimmy come back on a reduced deal. I could see a rebuilding or cash-strapped high payroll ballclub take a chance on him with a short, incentive-laiden deal in the hopes that he shows enough success to be either a deadline flip candidate or value rotation guy on a contender. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pitching for the Pirates or Cubs next year.