Brewers sign Arcia- 1 Year $2.2 Million

[adambr2]

Sorry to be the skeptical one, but we've been down this road with Arcia before. He's got over 1500 not very good ABs at the big league level. It's going to take a lot more than a few spring training ABs to convince me that anything has changed.

 

Let's see how he does in April when pitchers are no longer working on location and throwing more than a vanilla fastball arsenal at him.

 

What do you mean you're the skeptical one? I don't see anyone thinking that he's figured it out finally. It's certainly fun to be optimistic, though, especially in February. I think that's where most people are at.

 

I guess maybe I'm more pessimistic on Arcia than most is what I'm saying because I feel like I've gotten excited and then let down more times than I care to count.

 

It would be fantastic if there is something there, of course. Can never have too many options for SS.

[adambr2]

If I'm drinking the kool-aid on anyone's spring performance, it's Freddy Peralta.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If I'm drinking the kool-aid on anyone's spring performance, it's Freddy Peralta.

 

It's certainly been good news so far on many of the question marks, including Peralta, Burnes and Arcia. Heck, even Brett Anderson, who a few people here love to hate, has looked good. But ... it's still February.

[TURBO]

If I'm drinking the kool-aid on anyone's spring performance, it's Freddy Peralta.

 

It's certainly been good news so far on many of the question marks, including Peralta, Burnes and Arcia. Heck, even Brett Anderson, who a few people here love to hate, has looked good. But ... it's still February.

 

I haven't seen any hate for Anderson, just people knowing for 100% certainty that he will not pitch a full season.

 

What is the over /under on 15 starts?

[brewcrewdue80]

If I'm drinking the kool-aid on anyone's spring performance, it's Freddy Peralta.

 

It's certainly been good news so far on many of the question marks, including Peralta, Burnes and Arcia. Heck, even Brett Anderson, who a few people here love to hate, has looked good. But ... it's still February.

 

I haven't seen any hate for Anderson, just people knowing for 100% certainty that he will not pitch a full season.

 

What is the over /under on 15 starts?

 

Um I think you just gave the O/U....15starts.

 

The HR Arcia hit I just seen to lead off today, Back was that 1 foot finish and 2nd foot leaning off the ground. So maybe we are seeing the positive on hands being higher? Isn't that kinda reverse with what worked for Broxton and another Brewer hitter? Anyway, Kudos to him that he's having some success. Certainly better than a 28/52 Ks to PA Spring.

[TJseven7]

 

The HR Arcia hit I just seen to lead off today, Back was that 1 foot finish and 2nd foot leaning off the ground. So maybe we are seeing the positive on hands being higher? Isn't that kinda reverse with what worked for Broxton and another Brewer hitter? Anyway, Kudos to him that he's having some success. Certainly better than a 28/52 Ks to PA Spring.

 

Still far more balanced. The timing step is the same as all spring. The hands stay higher like the other swings. Wasn't the best swing I've seen from him this spring but it's considerably better than last year. Hit another grounder to 2b today as well. SS to RF, no hard pull, staying back.

 

He could be very useful like this.

[wallus]

Is the defense back for him as well?

[TJseven7]

Is the defense back for him as well?

 

I honestly think his defensive fall off is a perception creation. Fgraphs has him pretty level across his years.

 

Your defense looks worse when you can't hit a lick. Every defensive error is magnified because that's the only positive you have to offer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sorry to be the skeptical one, but we've been down this road with Arcia before. He's got over 1500 not very good ABs at the big league level. It's going to take a lot more than a few spring training ABs to convince me that anything has changed.

 

Let's see how he does in April when pitchers are no longer working on location and throwing more than a vanilla fastball arsenal at him.

 

What do you mean you're the skeptical one? I don't see anyone thinking that he's figured it out finally. It's certainly fun to be optimistic, though, especially in February. I think that's where most people are at.

 

Arcia's always had the talent to be a very good hitter. Always. That's what's frustrated the Brewers. Has it been a maturity thing or is it strictly mechanical? I think it's as simple as he often takes his talent for granted and loses focus and that leads to mechanical breakdowns. Eventually he finds it again and he has a good stretch but the bad stretches tend to be lengthy. The key is his keeping focus and if he loses it, regaining it before the mechanical issues creep back in.

[adambr2]

Is the defense back for him as well?

 

I honestly think his defensive fall off is a perception creation. Fgraphs has him pretty level across his years.

 

Your defense looks worse when you can't hit a lick. Every defensive error is magnified because that's the only positive you have to offer.

 

Well it wasn't just the fans. Counsell himself was very critical of Arcia's defense last year and said it wasn't at an acceptable level. It was the big reason he got benched for Saladino at one point. So I don't think it's solely a misconception or anything.

[DHonks]

I posted this in the “questions for 2020” thread to try to show reason for relaxing a bit.

 

If Arcia were a college draft pick, he’d be just getting to the big leagues now. Let’s not forget he’s 25. He has solid offensive numbers in he minors, especially with regards to plate discipline. In Carlos Gomez’s age 24-26 seasons he had the following lines:

.247/.298/.357 (ops .655)

.225/.276/.403 (ops .679, at that point the highest of his first 5 seasons)

.260/.305/.463 (ops .768)

 

At that point most of us thought Carlos would never turn the corner

[Thurston Fluff]

I posted this in the “questions for 2020” thread to try to show reason for relaxing a bit.

 

If Arcia were a college draft pick, he’d be just getting to the big leagues now. Let’s not forget he’s 25. He has solid offensive numbers in he minors, especially with regards to plate discipline. In Carlos Gomez’s age 24-26 seasons he had the following lines:

.247/.298/.357 (ops .655)

.225/.276/.403 (ops .679, at that point the highest of his first 5 seasons)

.260/.305/.463 (ops .768)

 

At that point most of us thought Carlos would never turn the corner

 

Not sure how comparing Arcia to someone who had 2-3 good years surrounded by a lot of bad ones is helping make your case.

[clancyphile]

I think when you mention Urias for 3b it is beyond this season. That's considering Arcia makes a drastic improvement for him not to play SS near everyday. While Arcia's statcast was just a little bit better than the last 2 seasons. The Expected isn't above a .700OPS. Thats a bit of climbing to reach that. Urias hits for avg and OB like in the minors hes an easy Arcia replacement. Maybe this is why Milwaukee is playing 3b this way this season. Should Arcia take that step forward, Urias can just slide in to the open 3b after 2020.

I dont believe it will happen. I think Arcia stands as much a chance not being with the team after this season as I do him succeeding enough to stay. If Arcia has a slightly positive year, I think hes a trade off selling high as he stands at that point. Urias to SS full time 2021 if its not finishing 2020 on his own. But the Arcia SS-Urias 3b is a thought for a combo in 2021.

 

Put it this way, if Arcia's for real, and put up around a .750 OPS with near Gold Glove defense, and if Hiura locks second base down, then Urias at third is not a bad choice.

 

Looking at the minor-league stats (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=urias-000lui), Urias in the three years prior to the "juiced" ball of 2019 posted OPS figures of .850, .778, and .845. Much of that was from a VERY good OBP figure (.404 in 2016, .398 in 2017, .398 in 2018).

 

For a leadoff hitter... that's not bad at all.

[RockCoCougars]

Brock Holt and Sogard are not the answer, so hopefully Arcia keeps this going.

[brewerfan82]

Brock Holt and Sogard are not the answer, so hopefully Arcia keeps this going.

What's the question? If it's a longterm shortstop, I think Urias is the answer. If it's a productive bat playing SS for the first half of the year and insurance for Urias in the second half, I think Holt/Sogard are quite possibly capable. That said, I also hope Arcia keeps it up!

[TJseven7]

Is the defense back for him as well?

 

I honestly think his defensive fall off is a perception creation. Fgraphs has him pretty level across his years.

 

Your defense looks worse when you can't hit a lick. Every defensive error is magnified because that's the only positive you have to offer.

 

Well it wasn't just the fans. Counsell himself was very critical of Arcia's defense last year and said it wasn't at an acceptable level. It was the big reason he got benched for Saladino at one point. So I don't think it's solely a misconception or anything.

 

Again, there are no strong metrics to back this up. Maybe they have a whole new level of fancy numbers that no one online computes and that tells a different story, but the numbers we have say its perception.

[clancyphile]

Brock Holt and Sogard are not the answer, so hopefully Arcia keeps this going.

What's the question? If it's a longterm shortstop, I think Urias is the answer. If it's a productive bat playing SS for the first half of the year and insurance for Urias in the second half, I think Holt/Sogard are quite possibly capable. That said, I also hope Arcia keeps it up!

 

If the question is, "anchors on the bench alongside Gyorko while Urias, Arcia, and Hiura hold down third, short, and second," it's very good news for the 2020 Brewers if the answers are Holt and Sogard.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brock Holt and Sogard are not the answer, so hopefully Arcia keeps this going.

What's the question? If it's a longterm shortstop, I think Urias is the answer. If it's a productive bat playing SS for the first half of the year and insurance for Urias in the second half, I think Holt/Sogard are quite possibly capable. That said, I also hope Arcia keeps it up!

 

If the question is, "anchors on the bench alongside Gyorko while Urias, Arcia, and Hiura hold down third, short, and second," it's very good news for the 2020 Brewers if the answers are Holt and Sogard.

 

Why wouldn't they play a guy in Urias acquired to play SS at SS? It makes 0 sense to give him a prominent role at 3B.

[clancyphile]

If the question is, "anchors on the bench alongside Gyorko while Urias, Arcia, and Hiura hold down third, short, and second," it's very good news for the 2020 Brewers if the answers are Holt and Sogard.

 

Why wouldn't they play a guy in Urias acquired to play SS at SS? It makes 0 sense to give him a prominent role at 3B.

 

Because Urias, if he puts up an .850 OPS like he did in two of the three years in the minors before the "juiced" balll of 2019, it a viable bat at third, albeit an OBP-heavy one. Urias could put up very good OBP numbers, in the .380-.400 range. Hiura, of course, would be that .950 OPS middle of the order bat.

 

If Arcia has put it together offensively to the tune of reliable posting OPS figures in the .750-.775 range with outstanding defense, I think it would make plenty of sense.

 

Assume the Brewers, after this season, reach a five-year/$20 million deal with Arcia, with two option years worth another $15 million. Kind of a Peralta-plus deal.

 

You would have 3/4 of the infield manned by players under 27, all of whom have 4+ years of control. That's not a bad spot to be in.

 

Now, if Lucas Erceg puts it all together, now things get interesting... but right now, IF Arcia's put it together offensivle, Urias may be the best bet at third base.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Urias put those numbers up in San Antonio and El Paso. I wouldn't put too much bank on him recreating those numbers at the big league level.

 

I'd honestly be pleased if Urias could slash a .270/.330/.400 this year, which is right around where all of the projections have him.

[homer]

I worry that Arcia hits a few homers and then tries to hit more homers. To me he's been at his best when he goes the other way.

[clancyphile]

Urias put those numbers up in San Antonio and El Paso. I wouldn't put too much bank on him recreating those numbers at the big league level.

 

I'd honestly be pleased if Urias could slash a .270/.330/.400 this year, which is right around where all of the projections have him.

 

I deliberately went to the years prior to the "juiced" ball. Urias has shown very good OBP skills, particularly in drawing walks. At times over his minor league career, he has walked more than he struck out over the course of a season.

 

If he hits .270, I expect the OBP to be in the .360-.370 range. Think Brock Holt as a floor.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

Again, there are no strong metrics to back this up. Maybe they have a whole new level of fancy numbers that no one online computes and that tells a different story, but the numbers we have say its perception.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/1/11/21058985/milwaukee-brewers-orlando-arcia-statcast-defense-infield-outs-above-average

[TJseven7]

 

Again, there are no strong metrics to back this up. Maybe they have a whole new level of fancy numbers that no one online computes and that tells a different story, but the numbers we have say its perception.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/1/11/21058985/milwaukee-brewers-orlando-arcia-statcast-defense-infield-outs-above-average

 

Good article, and how volatile is this new computation? 1 12 -4 sure point towards some swings comparable to pitch framing. We are assigning blame % in this right? Raw numbers making that accurate is insanely tricky. People making that accurate is hard to avoid bias.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Urias put those numbers up in San Antonio and El Paso. I wouldn't put too much bank on him recreating those numbers at the big league level.

 

I'd honestly be pleased if Urias could slash a .270/.330/.400 this year, which is right around where all of the projections have him.

 

I deliberately went to the years prior to the "juiced" ball. Urias has shown very good OBP skills, particularly in drawing walks. At times over his minor league career, he has walked more than he struck out over the course of a season.

 

If he hits .270, I expect the OBP to be in the .360-.370 range. Think Brock Holt as a floor.

 

Juiced ball or not he put up those numbers in extreme hitters parks in an extreme hitters League.

 

Before we call Brock Holt his floor, we need to see the guy produce at the big league level. His floor is a bust. His ceiling is probably a borderline All-Star. There's a big leap between hoping for and expecting a guy to reproduce numbers from bandbox ballparks in double A.