Brewers sign Arcia- 1 Year $2.2 Million

[AJOHNSON104]

Arcia's BABIP was so low because he takes such horrible swings. When he makes contact the ball is usually hit so poorly he has no chance of a base hit. The 2 ABs I've seen from him in Spring Training so far look better. I wonder if the waggle in his bat is something he can do consistently without getting his timing off, but I'm an optimist.

[brewcrewdue80]

He has a 6degree loft on his balls hit in play. I know Yelich was like that but Yeli had exit speed averages over 90MPH. Arcia is just creeping to 87. He needs a little more loft. And added power wouldn't hurt. My problem with him isnt just the bat, but his defense has trailed the last 2 seasons. Its at a level where I dont see him as a GG SS. 700OPS isnt good enough with this defense. He has to be higher than 740.

[DHonks]

Ground out to 2b

Ground out to 2b

K

HR to RF

Ground rule double to CF

Lines out to RF

Ground out to Pitcher

Ground out to SS

HR to LCF

Line drive single to RF

 

4 of 10, no BB, 1 K.

 

9 balls in play. 7 to CF to RF, 2 ball left of 2b. Nothing to LF.

 

If he can keep doing that he'll be useful. It's his pull crap that kills him.

 

Always nice to see these stretches. He's young enough that he can turn into a positive offensively, like he was in the minors. I did a comparison earlier this offseason, and at this point in his career he has been better offensively than Carlos Gomez was. However, one issue is he probably hasn't been seeing a steady stream of breaking pitchers 8" off the plate yet, since most pitchers focus on fastballs early in camp

[clancyphile]

Or, if Arcia is 2017 Arcia, then a full-time of Urias at third, Arcia at short, and Hiura at second isn't so bad...

 

The difference between 2017 Arcia and 2019 Arcia was really just BABIP. All of the peripherals were about the same with 2017 having a very slight edge in xOPS. The big difference is Arcia had a career high BABIP in 2017 and a career low in 2019.

 

I saw he had improved his ability to draw walks. If Arcia can be a .750 OPS hitter...

 

cf: Cain

3b: Urias

lf: Yelich

2b: Hiura

c: Narvaez

1b: Smoak

rf: Garcia

ss: Arcia

[TJseven7]

He has a 6degree loft on his balls hit in play. I know Yelich was like that but Yeli had exit speed averages over 90MPH. Arcia is just creeping to 87. He needs a little more loft. And added power wouldn't hurt. My problem with him isnt just the bat, but his defense has trailed the last 2 seasons. Its at a level where I dont see him as a GG SS. 700OPS isnt good enough with this defense. He has to be higher than 740.

 

Thing is Arcia has gone on binges and every single one is quiet swing oppo driven. He had the binge with 2 strikes, he had a binge to start one year and end another. I know it's the old fashioned saying of hit the ball the other way, let it get deep on you and drive it the other way. They say it to everyone. With a lot of guys that's garbage. They have the power and loft to pull. Arcia's never been that guy and his number jump when he tries to be as basic as possible. That old saying is his only chance.

 

We've seen the defense he can play. He stopped that too but if this dude wants to have a career he needs to get back to his days of plus defense and he needs to be a scrubby hitter who pops the ball the other way. You ask him to increase his launch angle and swing for power and the guys going to hit sub 200. Hit 280, obp 320 and collect your 10-12 HRs. Hit the ball the other way and play defense. He'd get paid pretty well for that.

 

Looked up his swing from the HR today and compared it to swings from 2019. Looks quieter, has a different timing step, not flying his shoulder open as early, hands are staying higher longer. It looks a lot better. Last year it looked incredibly wild though. We'll have to see if this lasts.

[KeithStone53151]

I like the notes on his swing above, but let's not get too carried away by his spring. Many pitches are throwing a very vanilla arsenal at this point. A lot of guys throw almost all fastballs to nail down their location before mixing in more offspeed later. It's always been the offspeed that hurt Arcia the most...so it's certainly possible he's had success off only fastballs and isn't yet getting fooled by offspeed.

 

Certainly better that he's raking than he's not, let's hope the trend continues.

[brewmann04]

The Hitting Coach They got from the Pirates might have helped him out.

[Ennder]

Arcia's BABIP was so low because he takes such horrible swings. When he makes contact the ball is usually hit so poorly he has no chance of a base hit. The 2 ABs I've seen from him in Spring Training so far look better. I wonder if the waggle in his bat is something he can do consistently without getting his timing off, but I'm an optimist.

 

 

Well keep in mind a career BABIP of .288 is quite low. His xAVG in 2017 was only .253. In 2019 it was .232. The xwOBA's are closer than that even. 2017 is an unrealistic expectation because he got better results than his skills. The biggest flaw in his game though is he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. Early spring training most pitchers are getting their fastballs under control more than throwing the other stuff, probably why he has done so well so far. I hope he breaks out this year but that breakout is going to be something like a .715 OPS if it happens. Not really hoping for much.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Or, if Arcia is 2017 Arcia, then a full-time of Urias at third, Arcia at short, and Hiura at second isn't so bad...

 

The difference between 2017 Arcia and 2019 Arcia was really just BABIP. All of the peripherals were about the same with 2017 having a very slight edge in xOPS. The big difference is Arcia had a career high BABIP in 2017 and a career low in 2019.

 

I saw he had improved his ability to draw walks. If Arcia can be a .750 OPS hitter...

 

cf: Cain

3b: Urias

lf: Yelich

2b: Hiura

c: Narvaez

1b: Smoak

rf: Garcia

ss: Arcia

 

If Urias is seeing regular starts at 3B, I have many fears for this season.

[MrTPlush]

People get all optimistic about Arcia for the same things over and over. Each time Arcia proves it was a fluke hot streak. He is facing minor league pitchers and/or pitchers just warming up for the year ahead. I hope he magically clicks too, but the things he is doing right now are things he has done in the past without much extended success. It should be taken with the smallest grain of salt in Spring Training.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

People get all optimistic about Arcia for the same things over and over. Each time Arcia proves it was a fluke hot streak. He is facing minor league pitchers and/or pitchers just warming up for the year ahead. I hope he magically clicks too, but the things he is doing right now are things he has done in the past without much extended success. It should be taken with the smallest grain of salt in Spring Training.

 

All of these things are true ...

 

but it's also pretty easy to forget that he's also only 25 years old. I don't think it's out of line to have a little bit of cautious optimism for the guy.

[clancyphile]

People get all optimistic about Arcia for the same things over and over. Each time Arcia proves it was a fluke hot streak. He is facing minor league pitchers and/or pitchers just warming up for the year ahead. I hope he magically clicks too, but the things he is doing right now are things he has done in the past without much extended success. It should be taken with the smallest grain of salt in Spring Training.

 

All of these things are true ...

 

but it's also pretty easy to forget that he's also only 25 years old. I don't think it's out of line to have a little bit of cautious optimism for the guy.

 

For me, the big difference is an improved walk rate.

 

In 2019, Arcia's batting average was 13 points lower than his disastrous 2018 season (.223 to .236), but his OBP was 15 points HIGHER (.283 to .268). In fact, he drew 43 walks to 494 at-bats in 2019 compared to 36 in 506 ABs in 2017.

 

To me, that is tangible improvement in that area.

[umphrey]

Yeah but if he can't hit for average or power he won't be able to sustain a high walk rate because there is nothing for the pitcher to fear

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah but if he can't hit for average or power he won't be able to sustain a high walk rate because there is nothing for the pitcher to fear

 

An improved walk rate shows likely improved eye at the plate and/or improved patience, which can lead to improved production. Much easier to hit good pitches than junk in the dirt. Arcia reduced his chase% from 34% prior 3 seasons to 30% in 2019. Chase contact% increased from 54% to 62%, tells you he's probably swinging at less impossible pitches and more pitches close to the zone that he can at least foul off. Also his whiff% is down from 29% to 24.5% from 2018 to 2019. Feel free to take a look at his statcast data for more info. Based on those advanced metrics, I'm surprised his production wasn't closer to 2017 than it was...most metrics were similar or better in 2019 than 2017.

[clancyphile]

Yeah but if he can't hit for average or power he won't be able to sustain a high walk rate because there is nothing for the pitcher to fear

 

An improved walk rate shows likely improved eye at the plate and/or improved patience, which can lead to improved production. Much easier to hit good pitches than junk in the dirt. Arcia reduced his chase% from 34% prior 3 seasons to 30% in 2019. Chase contact% increased from 54% to 62%, tells you he's probably swinging at less impossible pitches and more pitches close to the zone that he can at least foul off. Also his whiff% is down from 29% to 24.5% from 2018 to 2019. Feel free to take a look at his statcast data for more info. Based on those advanced metrics, I'm surprised his production wasn't closer to 2017 than it was...most metrics were similar or better in 2019 than 2017.

 

And an Arcia who can put up a .750 OPS makes for a stronger lineup.

 

Urias could hold down third in that case, and with Hiura at second...

 

That could be good news.

[wntrtxn21]

Yeah but if he can't hit for average or power he won't be able to sustain a high walk rate because there is nothing for the pitcher to fear

 

An improved walk rate shows likely improved eye at the plate and/or improved patience, which can lead to improved production. Much easier to hit good pitches than junk in the dirt. Arcia reduced his chase% from 34% prior 3 seasons to 30% in 2019. Chase contact% increased from 54% to 62%, tells you he's probably swinging at less impossible pitches and more pitches close to the zone that he can at least foul off. Also his whiff% is down from 29% to 24.5% from 2018 to 2019. Feel free to take a look at his statcast data for more info. Based on those advanced metrics, I'm surprised his production wasn't closer to 2017 than it was...most metrics were similar or better in 2019 than 2017.

 

And an Arcia who can put up a .750 OPS makes for a stronger lineup.

 

Urias could hold down third in that case, and with Hiura at second...

 

That could be good news.

 

IMO there is zero chance of Urias getting many starts at 3B, unless disaster strikes CC and the Crew.

Holt-Gyorko-Sogard are much better options. Urias was brought in for one purpose, to play SS. If Arcia can somehow turn things around from being the worst offensive SS in baseball, then Urias goes to the minors or is a reserve SS-2B.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think when you mention Urias for 3b it is beyond this season. That's considering Arcia makes a drastic improvement for him not to play SS near everyday. While Arcia's statcast was just a little bit better than the last 2 seasons. The Expected isn't above a .700OPS. Thats a bit of climbing to reach that. Urias hits for avg and OB like in the minors hes an easy Arcia replacement. Maybe this is why Milwaukee is playing 3b this way this season. Should Arcia take that step forward, Urias can just slide in to the open 3b after 2020.

I dont believe it will happen. I think Arcia stands as much a chance not being with the team after this season as I do him succeeding enough to stay. If Arcia has a slightly positive year, I think hes a trade off selling high as he stands at that point. Urias to SS full time 2021 if its not finishing 2020 on his own. But the Arcia SS-Urias 3b is a thought for a combo in 2021.

[TJseven7]

Arcia's BABIP was so low because he takes such horrible swings. When he makes contact the ball is usually hit so poorly he has no chance of a base hit. The 2 ABs I've seen from him in Spring Training so far look better. I wonder if the waggle in his bat is something he can do consistently without getting his timing off, but I'm an optimist.

 

 

Well keep in mind a career BABIP of .288 is quite low. His xAVG in 2017 was only .253. In 2019 it was .232. The xwOBA's are closer than that even. 2017 is an unrealistic expectation because he got better results than his skills. The biggest flaw in his game though is he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. Early spring training most pitchers are getting their fastballs under control more than throwing the other stuff, probably why he has done so well so far. I hope he breaks out this year but that breakout is going to be something like a .715 OPS if it happens. Not really hoping for much.

 

His HR yesterday was on a sinker or change lower 3rd inner 3rd. He hit it like he knew it was coming.

[pacopete4]

Arcia Swing Comparison

[brewcrewdue80]

Arcia Swing Comparison

 

What's different? Which one is the new swing and which is the old?

I watched this like 15times. I assume the Left is the newer swing? Higher hands being the tell? What I see in the left, is an earlier leg kick that is bigger, a wind up further back. Once the swing begins going forward it is the same as the right. The left takes longer and in the end is a few frames behind the right. Head has same movement.

[AKCheesehead]

To me he looks much less off-balance.

[stoutdude04]

Arcia Swing Comparison

 

What's different? Which one is the new swing and which is the old?

I watched this like 15times. I assume the Left is the newer swing? Higher hands being the tell? What I see in the left, is an earlier leg kick that is bigger, a wind up further back. Once the swing begins going forward it is the same as the right. The left takes longer and in the end is a few frames behind the right. Head has same movement.

 

2 hand finish as opposed to 1 hand as well.

[markedman5]

It’s working

 

[adambr2]

Sorry to be the skeptical one, but we've been down this road with Arcia before. He's got over 1500 not very good ABs at the big league level. It's going to take a lot more than a few spring training ABs to convince me that anything has changed.

 

Let's see how he does in April when pitchers are no longer working on location and throwing more than a vanilla fastball arsenal at him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sorry to be the skeptical one, but we've been down this road with Arcia before. He's got over 1500 not very good ABs at the big league level. It's going to take a lot more than a few spring training ABs to convince me that anything has changed.

 

Let's see how he does in April when pitchers are no longer working on location and throwing more than a vanilla fastball arsenal at him.

 

What do you mean you're the skeptical one? I don't see anyone thinking that he's figured it out finally. It's certainly fun to be optimistic, though, especially in February. I think that's where most people are at.