B1G Championship Game - Wisconsin vs Ohio St. - Saturday, Dec 7th, 7PM

[young guns]

If Georgia loses, their losses will be to LSU in the championship game and to South Carolina. That would be compared to losing to OSU and to Illinois. And... Georgia name recognition > Wisconsin.

 

If Baylor wins, they have one loss to Oklahoma... whom they will have just beaten. Since Oklahoma name recognition > Wisconsin, Baylor gets in.

I dont know what it would actually take for Wisconsin to get in, but if a 2 loss non champion georgia were to get in over a 2 loss champion Wisconsin then the whole system is broken. Likewise I dont know what Oklahoma's name recognition would do to benefit Baylor, but we also would have beat a high name in ohio st. Plus have some other good wins despite the extra loss.

[OldHeidelberg]

Throughout this thread I have seen talk about why WI could win the game or have a better showing/ outcome then earlier in the year. Nowhere has the other side been addressed. Take a moment to consider the motivation for OSU on Saturday.

 

Not only does OSU want to show that the previous meeting was not a fluke or a result due to weather conditions & location, they want to be the 1st college team to win a conference title winning all 10 conference contests. Until that was pointed out by Joel Klatt, I didn't realize that was a thing or even possible. Now that it has been put out there, I don't think the impact/ importance of that 'record' can be ignored. Being the 1st to do something/ anything is noteworthy & it provides motivation to players & coaches.

 

OSU also wants to do well enough in order to remain #1 in the playoff ranking & therefore avoid a 1st round match with Clemson before a possible match-up with LSU in the championship round. While doing this they wish to remain healthy & available for the next game.

 

Both WI & OSU have a habit of remaining close thru Q1 before starting to pull away from the opponent in Q2 & Q3. I don't know how the game on Saturday will go. Its why the game is played on the field and not in chatrooms/ bars. But just like WI can have a better result then earlier, the game Saturday could also get ugly and it could get away from WI fast.

 

 

Much like it did in Dec 2014.

 

[sarcasm]If only the badgers were aware of this a couple of years ago, that extra motivation may have got them over the top.[/sarcasm] I don't even have to look it up to know that the opportunity to accomplish this is a recent development and is still limited in scope. I don't know, maybe you were joking.

 

There is plenty of respect for OSU in this thread.

[MadThinker88]

[sarcasm]If only the badgers were aware of this a couple of years ago, that extra motivation may have got them over the top.[/sarcasm] I don't even have to look it up to know that the opportunity to accomplish this is a recent development and is still limited in scope. I don't know, maybe you were joking.

 

There is plenty of respect for OSU in this thread.

 

OldH,

I was not suggesting any lack of respect for OSU on this board. I realize that many give the respect, even if only begrudgingly. While many aspects had been raised and discussed, motivation for the OSU side had not been addressed. Perhaps fans feel winning the B1G championship & earning a playoff bid should be enough for player motivation. I'm sure for some players that would be enough. Maybe not for others.

Teams and players measure/ track all sorts of things, both individual and unit. I know back in my high school days there was a board measuring our team defense. Top Measurement= Team Win. Then following lines went Shutout, Limited Opp to X yards rushing, Limited Opp to Y yards passing, forced 3 turnovers, recorded 4 sacks, defensive score.

 

As for the 10 conference wins, that was what Joel Klatt was saying. Perhaps he had wrong info or his point is others have tried (I guess WI had the chance in 2017) but no one has achieved it yet. Maybe OSU achieves it. Maybe WI finds a way to reverse the tables like in 2017.

 

We shall see how it plays out Saturday..

[OldHeidelberg]

OK, rereading I don't think you post was about Badgers fans not respecting OSU. My response was mostly about the 10 win motivation thing, there are only 3 conferences that play 9 games plus a title game and that is a very recent development, about 6 years for the PAC, 4 for the BIG, and even fewer for the Big12 I think. It's sort of like being the first team to go 6-0 in the NFC North, it's one of those things that is brought up when it happens but I wouldn't be surprised if OSU isn't even aware of it. I did suggest maybe OSU would peek past this game but I doubt it, even a top program like OSU still cares about a conference championship game. I don't really question either teams motivation, just looking for an angle as a 17 point underdog to give me hope.

[adambr2]

If Georgia loses, their losses will be to LSU in the championship game and to South Carolina. That would be compared to losing to OSU and to Illinois. And... Georgia name recognition > Wisconsin.

 

If Baylor wins, they have one loss to Oklahoma... whom they will have just beaten. Since Oklahoma name recognition > Wisconsin, Baylor gets in.

I dont know what it would actually take for Wisconsin to get in, but if a 2 loss non champion georgia were to get in over a 2 loss champion Wisconsin then the whole system is broken. Likewise I dont know what Oklahoma's name recognition would do to benefit Baylor, but we also would have beat a high name in ohio st. Plus have some other good wins despite the extra loss.

 

Georgia isn't the problem. They aren't getting in over us if they lose. The problem is between LSU, OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Baylor, and Utah, there are too many 1 or less loss names above us if we lose. Had we not lost to Illinois, we're in with a win. As it is, the Rose Bowl is our ceiling.

 

And to be fair, a team that is a 17 point dog (which we all pretty much agree is reasonable) to another team in the country probably isn't one of your 4 best.

[tmwiese55]

To add to the OSU motivation or things in their favor topic I think the most important difference from game 1 is the weather. I mean we did hang with them for 2.5 quarters and all but it was in an absolute monsoon. Their speed being able to be fully utilized in a dome instead of slowed by the rain is a huge difference for them and why I think we don't really have a chance. I'd be happy to be wrong. I just hope I'm not wrong in that we hand and lose by less than 15.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Georgia loses, their losses will be to LSU in the championship game and to South Carolina. That would be compared to losing to OSU and to Illinois. And... Georgia name recognition > Wisconsin.

 

If Baylor wins, they have one loss to Oklahoma... whom they will have just beaten. Since Oklahoma name recognition > Wisconsin, Baylor gets in.

I dont know what it would actually take for Wisconsin to get in, but if a 2 loss non champion georgia were to get in over a 2 loss champion Wisconsin then the whole system is broken. Likewise I dont know what Oklahoma's name recognition would do to benefit Baylor, but we also would have beat a high name in ohio st. Plus have some other good wins despite the extra loss.

 

Georgia isn't the problem. They aren't getting in over us if they lose. The problem is between LSU, OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Baylor, and Utah, there are too many 1 or less loss names above us if we lose. Had we not lost to Illinois, we're in with a win. As it is, the Rose Bowl is our ceiling.

 

And to be fair, a team that is a 17 point dog (which we all pretty much agree is reasonable) to another team in the country probably isn't one of your 4 best.

 

Had the Badgers not lost to Illinois, there's a good chance they are sitting at #5 right now in the CFP standings and the Badgers could easily have control of their own CFP destiny. However, it would be an interesting hypothetical to consider that scenario under the following circumstances:

 

#5 WI beats OSU in the big ten title game

#4 Georgia finds a way to beat #2 LSU

#3 Clemson wins its conference title game

 

Of those 5 teams based on those scenarios, who would the committee leave out? Based on the resumes, it's tough removing OSU and LSU from the CFP unless one of them gets blown out in their conference title game. In this scenario it may lead to a 1-loss WI big ten champ being left out just after they beat OSU for the conference title on a neutral field. Pitchforks out in madison for sure and probably in the big 12 a bit because there would be 2 1-loss SEC teams in over their 1-loss conference champ.

 

In reality, the CFP playoff committee actually has it pretty easy this go-round - Barring a devastating injury to a QB, I think OSU and LSU are both locks for the CFP no matter what happens this weekend. Clemson is in with a win as well - a loss against an inferior opponent in the ACC title game might be enough to bump them if Georgia wins and the Big 12 title winner looks impressive. IMO WI has little/no shot at even climbing into the top 5 of the rankings - even with a win Saturday night.

[tmwiese55]

UW has no shot at the playoff IMO. For the scenario you mention where we're assuming ILL misses that kick at the end. I think it would go down that we're in over OSU if we would beat them tomorrow. L in OSU but beat them neutral field gives us the edge, then tack on the conference championship. We'd have a great schedule and resume that trumps the Pac 10 and Big 12 champs without question (Wins vs OSU, Mich, MN, Iowa, no bad losses). It would be SEC Champ, Clemson, UW. Then the debate comes in for the 4th spot between Utah if they win, Big 12 champ, OSU, LSU if they lose SEC. That would be an impossible decision to make but I'd have no doubt UW would be in that scenario. If I was guessing I think they'd screw over the Big 12 and Utah and pick between LSU/OSU. If I had to guess I'd say they pick OSU but who knows, like I said that would be a horrible spto for the committee to be in. Maybe they'd take the copout and put Utah in so they can say Conf Champ even though they all think/know OSU and LSU are better

[Fear The Chorizo]

UW has no shot at the playoff IMO. For the scenario you mention where we're assuming ILL misses that kick at the end. I think it would go down that we're in over OSU if we would beat them tomorrow. L in OSU but beat them neutral field gives us the edge, then tack on the conference championship. We'd have a great schedule and resume that trumps the Pac 10 and Big 12 champs without question (Wins vs OSU, Mich, MN, Iowa, no bad losses). It would be SEC Champ, Clemson, UW. Then the debate comes in for the 4th spot between Utah if they win, Big 12 champ, OSU, LSU if they lose SEC. That would be an impossible decision to make but I'd have no doubt UW would be in that scenario. If I was guessing I think they'd screw over the Big 12 and Utah and pick between LSU/OSU. If I had to guess I'd say they pick OSU but who knows, like I said that would be a horrible spto for the committee to be in. Maybe they'd take the copout and put Utah in so they can say Conf Champ even though they all think/know OSU and LSU are better

 

I'd like to think you're right because I probably value winning your conference (however that's determined) as a precursor to having the opportunity to win the national title, but even though it was a road loss at the horseshoe it was still a thumping that I think the committee would still consider OSU the better team than the badgers. So IMO the Buckeyes would be in over wisconsin in any scenario. Then you'd have to weigh wisconsin getting into the CFP over an undefeated defending national champ in Clemson (not gonna happen), or a 1-loss SEC champ in Georgia (bad 1 loss, but SEC champ, c'mon), or a 1-loss LSU champ that has a better resume than Wisconsin and no bad losses. Oh well, we will never get to see the committee carnage because of that Illini loss.

 

Regardless, if there are a few upsets tomorrow there could be a larger groundswell for expanding the playoff to either 8 teams or 6 teams (with the top 2 getting a bye).

[tmwiese55]

Well let's say you're right and OSU would be still slotted ahead of UW. Then it's OSU, SEC Champ, Clemson as locks. Then debate comes between 1 loss UW B1G Champ vs 1 loss Utah, 1 loss B12 champ, and vs either two loss UGA or 1 loss LSU. The only situation there that would be a problem is if LSU were to lose to UGA. We're in over B12 and Pac10 and I don't think that's debatable. If LSU beats UGA we'd be in over UGA, no doubt. 1 loss LSU vs 1 loss UW I think is a toss up. That would be the only situation we'd be in trouble. Generally speaking if UW has 1 loss and wins the B1G Title game they're almost always going to make the playoff, probably 95% of the time if not higher. You'd need some serious things working against you and bad luck to not. I'd still think they turn it into an OSU/LSU debate and use our Conf Title to have us in already especially since we just beat one heads up, but just discussing hypotheticals which is one of the fun things of CFB

[homer]

Alvarez thinks this is the best OSU team he's seen since he came to Wisconsin (1990).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Kinda looking like the pac 12 isnt going to have much of a beef being left out of the cfp again...

[adambr2]

I've been firmly in the "UW has no shot at the playoff" crowd, so I'm going to look like a hypocrite here but I'm just thinking out loud. Utah is now out. Georgia is out if they lose to LSU. Oklahoma is in with a win I'm 99% sure, but I'm less confident about Baylor. They are only ranked one spot above us. If we were to beat the #1 team (a supremely impressive #1 team at that) and Baylor narrowly beats Oklahoma, is there at least a conversation to be had there or is it still Baylor easily?

[RollieTime]

I've been firmly in the "UW has no shot at the playoff" crowd, so I'm going to look like a hypocrite here but I'm just thinking out loud. Utah is now out. Georgia is out if they lose to LSU. Oklahoma is in with a win I'm 99% sure, but I'm less confident about Baylor. They are only ranked one spot above us. If we were to beat the #1 team (a supremely impressive #1 team at that) and Baylor narrowly beats Oklahoma, is there at least a conversation to be had there or is it still Baylor easily?

 

Yes, this was the exact situation I mentioned earlier in the thread. If Utah, Georgia, and Oklahoma all lose, it’ll most likely come down to Baylor or Wisconsin getting the last spot.

 

I do think the committee will look past the Illinois loss if the Badgers can take down Ohio State tomorrow night. The Badgers will be rewarded if they take care of business against a team as dominant as Ohio State, but Georgia and Oklahoma need to lose as well to make the Badgers’ CFP dreams alive. Ohio State and LSU are locks in my opinion regardless of their games tomorrow. Maybe even someone like Clemson could be looking on the outside in if they lay an egg, giving both Baylor and Wisconsin a chance to squeak in.

 

Obviously a lot more needs to go right, but the first domino has fallen in the Badgers’ favor with Utah losing tonight.

[adambr2]

Yeah the 2nd loss for us is a killer but looking at Baylor's schedule they do not have a particularly impressive resume. Lot of close calls and really no great wins. That would obviously change with a win over Oklahoma but we'd obviously be adding an even more impressive win in this scenario to add to an already much better resume.

[RollieTime]

Exactly. Georgia beating LSU is probably the worst outcome for us as Georgia will solidify their spot and I don’t see LSU or Ohio State dropping out of the top 4 no matter what. LSU needs to win and then one of Clemson or Oklahoma needs to lose to give us a shot.

 

I do think it’s almost a lock for us to make it in though IF somehow Utah (check), Georgia, and Clemson all lose. The winner of the Oklahoma and Baylor game wouldn’t matter as we would make it in with the winner of that game.

 

If Clemson loses to a 23 seed, I don’t think they will stay in the top 4. Again, lots has to go right, but we really do have a shot at this. We obviously need to take care of our own business first and foremost, but with a lot of outside help, we can get in.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yeah the 2nd loss for us is a killer but looking at Baylor's schedule they do not have a particularly impressive resume. Lot of close calls and really no great wins. That would obviously change with a win over Oklahoma but we'd obviously be adding an even more impressive win in this scenario to add to an already much better resume.

 

You could pretty much say the same thing about Oklahoma - sure they have a few more blowouts but their schedule was weak sauce, too...and honestly they could easily have 3 losses on their record with how they've played the last month.

 

If a Big 12 team makes it, I'm guessing they're going to get a 50 spot hung on them by whoever they play.

[young guns]

I dont see how clemson losing would hurt us, so I'm all for it. Go lsu and Baylor! Keep our (slim) hopes alive!

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah the 2nd loss for us is a killer but looking at Baylor's schedule they do not have a particularly impressive resume. Lot of close calls and really no great wins. That would obviously change with a win over Oklahoma but we'd obviously be adding an even more impressive win in this scenario to add to an already much better resume.

 

This is the scenario I've been hoping for all along. Baylor beats OK in a squeeker, and UW beats OSU, and I think there's a legit discussion. Clemson loses, and I think things get REALLY intreresting, because I don't think they're a lock in that situation at all.

 

Obviously, this is all predicated on the very unlikely outcome of Wisconsin winning tonight.

[JosephC]

That whole Utah thing was pretty funny. Talk about another over-rated team that played a completely dog schedule. They didn't beat an 8+ win all year. Best wins came against 4 different 7-5 teams. BYU (30-12 on the road), Arizona State (21-3 at home), California (35-0 at home), Washington (33-28 on the road). Note that Arizona State, California and Washington all finished at 4-5 in Pac 12 play. At least Oregon had a win over USC. Absolutely no surprise that Oregon beat Utah. Oregon will provide a much tougher game in the Rose Bowl if the Badgers are fortunate enough to end up there.

[adambr2]

On College Gameday they are debating whether Georgia, if they lose a close game to LSU, should get in over Baylor if Baylor wins. They aren't even discussing the possibility of us. I wonder if that is because they think we have no shot to get in regardless, or just no shot to beat OSU. Regardless, how can they think a 2 loss Power 5 non champ should get in over a 2 loss Power 5 champ who would have just beaten OSU?

 

We are probably going to get smoked anyway. But still.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On College Gameday they are debating whether Georgia, if they lose a close game to LSU, should get in over Baylor if Baylor wins. They aren't even discussing the possibility of us. I wonder if that is because they think we have no shot to get in regardless, or just no shot to beat OSU. Regardless, how can they think a 2 loss Power 5 non champ should get in over a 2 loss Power 5 champ who would have just beaten OSU?

 

We are probably going to get smoked anyway. But still.

 

SEC...and guess who owns that network...ESPN

 

That's why WI would have had next to no shot even if they had beaten Illinois and only had the one blowout loss to OSU if georgia wins today.

[MrTPlush]

Wisconsin would definitely have a shot and probably likely to be in if they only had one loss and beat OSU today.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wisconsin would definitely have a shot and probably likely to be in if they only had one loss and beat OSU today.

 

If georgia beats LSU today and clemson wins, who are you putting a hypothetical 1 loss badgers team in over assuming they win a close game against OSU, who already have a blowout win against the badgers?

[adambr2]

For all the insisting that the Clemson coach did that his team won't make it to the CFP if they don't win all their games, it would be kind of funny if that became a self-fulfilling prophecy.