Jonathan Villar waived

[3and2Fastball]

I think there is a 50/50 chance Counsell would resign if the Brewers signed Villar. I don’t think he can stand him, won’t play him, won’t trust him...

[adambr2]

I think there is a 50/50 chance Counsell would resign if the Brewers signed Villar.

 

I don't believe for one second that Craig Counsell would be that unprofessional. Resign from a great job that he's held for 5 years because he can't stand one single player that they brought in? For a reason we don't even know? (Which we don't even know, we're just speculating.)

 

That would be an embarrassing stain on his managerial reputation. Craig is better than that.

[HiAndTight]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

 

You simultaneously complained about the Brewers trading Villar before he had a good couple seasons and then dismissed the idea of bringing him back BECAUSE of how he played in those seasons.

 

 

I personally don't really care if we bring back Villar. I think he'd be a really nice utility player but I doubt he wants to play in that role. I also doubt anyone would be that invested in Villar if he wasn't a former Brewer.

[adambr2]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

 

You simultaneously complained about the Brewers trading Villar before he had a good couple seasons and then dismissed the idea of bringing him back BECAUSE of how he played in those seasons.

 

 

I personally don't really care if we bring back Villar. I think he'd be a really nice utility player but I doubt he wants to play in that role. I also doubt anyone would be that invested in Villar if he wasn't a former Brewer.

 

I can assure you that it a 4 WAR switch hitter suddenly became available for free I would be paying attention regardless of what his former team was.

[liveforoctober]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.

[rickh150]

He led the league in SB one year and Craig wouldn't dare to pinch run him the next. That is all you need to know about his baserunning skills.

I would put Aguilar and Sogard in front of him on my wish list for return Brewers this holiday season. Sheffield would be on the bottom of that list.

[owbc]

I’m a big believer that Arcia has potential but not sure what that has to do with Villar.

 

If anything this suggests that there was some serious substance to the “Villar is in Counsell’s doghouse” talk. No way 29 MLB teams take a pass on a 4-WAR player.

[SRB]

Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

 

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.

[MrTPlush]

Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

 

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.

 

Ummm...so he gets penalized for being dependable and playing every day?

 

Imagine we had him last year...what happens if Villar couldn’t play, who plays? Arcia, Saladin, other terrible player? Those guys would find a way to put up negative WAR in sporadic playing time. There is value in playing everyday and not having AAAA getting ABs.

 

Your defense comment is interesting because A) I bet you didn’t watch even 5% of Villar’s field time last year (maybe 0%?) and B) He had his worst bWAR defensive season of his career and his fWAR wasn’t all that generous either. If you made it closer to his career average it probably doesn’t take a lot off his overall WAR, probably 3.5ish instead? His fluke defensive season per fWAR was 2018.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

 

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.

 

Both fangraphs and br had him at 4 war. You dont penalize a guy for playing every day. Thats a plus. He was 3 war in 2016 per fg and 3.7 per br. If people just dont like him, thats ok, but the numbers are what they are. When multiple publications all put him at about the same value I'll take that over the ol eye test.

[MrTPlush]

Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

 

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

[SRB]

I'm not penalizing him for playing every day. I fail to see how his ability to play 162 games would benefit us in having Villar be a bench bat or split time with Hiura/Urias/Arcia. To me calling someone a "4.0 WAR" player suggests they have All Star level talent when they are on the field, not that they are extremely durable and racked up lots of PA/IP.

[Thurston Fluff]

Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

 

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.

 

That's the problem with using WAR in general and as a predictive measure in particular. It just doesn't measure defense well. What does having a 4 fWAR last season mean going forward? Nothing. So why do people keep using it to argue we should get a particular player or not? The fact that any team could have got a player coming off a 4 WAR season for a bag of balls and none did tells you all you need to know about how teams feel about WAR.

[adambr2]

Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

 

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.

 

That's the problem with using WAR in general and as a predictive measure in particular. It just doesn't measure defense well. What does having a 4 fWAR last season mean going forward? Nothing. So why do people keep using it to argue we should get a particular player or not? The fact that any team could have got a player coming off a 4 WAR season for a bag of balls and none did tells you all you need to know about how teams feel about WAR.

 

Or that the Orioles are a cheap and poorly run franchise.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

 

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

 

I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

 

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

[danzig6767]

Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

 

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

 

I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

 

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

Maybe he learned from past mistakes. Plenty of athletes do this.

[Mr Southpaw]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.

 

Maybe, or maybe he explodes. You just cannot read the future. Look at Brinson? Ray? I always liked Grisham better than those two.

[PeaveyFury]

Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

 

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

 

I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

 

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

Maybe he learned from past mistakes. Plenty of athletes do this.

 

Or, it could also be possible that a new coach helped him with something that he wasn't getting helped with here. If we believe that someone like DJ can do it with pitchers, why can't an IF coach do the same with positional players?

[liveforoctober]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.

 

Maybe, or maybe he explodes. You just cannot read the future. Look at Brinson? Ray? I always liked Grisham better than those two.

 

I felt like saying "what could very well be" covered my statement in case he ascends. Maybe I don't know English though.

[MrTPlush]

Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

 

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

 

I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

 

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

 

I'm not saying occasionally this wouldn't be true, but over the long run of 162 games that kind of stuff just doesn't add up. Villar was not the best baserunner in baseball cause he just ran around doing whatever he pleased cause he team was bad.

 

The only time I ever see what you are referring to consistently would be on stolen bases. In situations where a game isn't close and the defense basically just lets them take the base (but it still counts as a SB...this isn't always the case). I would imagine Villar saw a lot of these hypothetically. He was 22/26 in wins and 18/23 in losses. He was actually better in wins as far as SBs went.

 

The other situation would be going 1st to 3rd where the defense doesn't care late in a game. There won't be a stat to show that, but I really doubt he did that consistently to suddenly make him the best baserunner in baseball.

[wntrtxn21]

I love when we do this.

Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.

Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.

Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.

Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

 

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

 

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

 

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.

 

You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.

 

The Brewers dumped Villar because he was already making $2.5M and was once again arby eligible. He didn't play defense well and was horrible running the bases. The big reason; they had Arcia at SS and Huira coming up for 2B. Villar was going to be expensive as a backup.

[jerichoholicninja]

From reading comments from Orioles fans he's still a baseball dunce. He's so incredibly inconsistent it's impossible to figure out what kind of year he will have in 2020.

[clancyphile]

From reading comments from Orioles fans he's still a baseball dunce. He's so incredibly inconsistent it's impossible to figure out what kind of year he will have in 2020.

 

It is a tough call.

 

On the one hand, when he is on, he can produce a lot. If he produced in the form he did at Baltimore, a .777 OPS, then he is a decent option at third base or as the top sub off the bench.

 

The question is... would he be willing to give Milwaukee another go after 2018?

[trwi7]

Traded to Miami for Easton Lucas.

[Oxy]

Traded to Miami for Easton Lucas.

 

This is a good spot for him. I like his skillset, but after watching him for years I don't want him on a playoff team...which means I don't want him.