Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[True Blue Brew Crew]

We really can't be THAT patient with another SS project, can we?

 

I've seen similar thoughts by others here, so I'll just post a few numbers...

 

Urias in Sept - .300 avg, .371 obp, .425 slg, .796 ops

 

Urias got the majority of his ABs batting either 7th or 8th. His numbers batting 8th really dragged down his line. Perhaps he struggled with hitting in front of the pitcher and being pitched around as many hitters do...

 

Urias '19 batting 7th - 101 abs, .267 avg, .357 obp, .455 slg, .812 ops

Urias '19 batting 8th - 96 abs, .208, .345 obp, .240 slg, .584 ops (still drew those walks, likely wasn't given much to hit)

 

And finally, while its a great sign that Urias finished 2019 with a very strong September, the entirety of his 2nd half was far better than what Arcia was giving the Brewers during the same time...

 

Urias '19 Post AS - .241 avg, .341 obp, .351 slg, .692 ops

Arcia '19 Post AS - .199 avg, .259 obp, .269 slg, .528 ops

 

Urias got off to a terrible start, going 2 for 24 before being sent back down to the minors on April 20th. He didn't return until July 20th to post that 2nd half line. Given the strong finish, the forgivable struggles batting in front of the pitcher, and the likelihood he was pressing to keep his spot as a young player often does, I think there's plenty or reason to be optimistic that once he's settled in, he's going to take off like the player he's anticipated to be. Barring a horrendous spring training, I give him the assurance he's the every day SS, bat him anywhere but the 8 hole, and then let the kid hopefully become the hitter he's shown throughout the minors and in the majors this past September. Moving from Petco to AmFam could provide a big boost as well.

[Eye Black]

No, I don't think so....his offense needs to be better. His major league numbers have to be much Brinson better.

He really hasn't been tested as a major league SS defensively. If a guy has two positions attached to his name, it usually means he isn't all that strong defensively with the more difficult position. We will see. Does he have any minor league awards for D

By most accounts he has performed much better defensively as a 2B than at SS.

 

As far as offensive production, I would bet on him being a much better hitter than Arcia next season. He has reportedly displayed elite bat control in the minors and more recently traded some hit for power with an adjusted approach. Offensively Arcia has rated in the bottom two among all hitters in baseball the past two years. Among qualified hitters in 2019 he was dead last in wRC (45), wRAA (-24.1), wOBA (.269), and wRC+ (61), and in most of those cases he wasn’t particularly close statistically to the next worst hitter. That is a pretty low bar to clear for Urias. If Urias is able to be even just below average offensively next year that is a big upgrade, and he obviously has the possibility to eventually develop into an above average hitter.

[mtrebs]

Moving from Petco to AmFam could provide a big boost as well.

 

This is the first time I’ve seen Miller Park referred to the AmFam name outside of the renaming context, and it makes me sad. Hopefully Urias can have a big boost in Miller Park too (in 2020)!

[Eye Black]

Any guesses on the PTBNL?

 

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

 

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...

 

 

1B/3B Jason Vosler

 

2B Esteury Ruiz

 

OF Buddy Reed

 

OF Michael Gettys

 

RHP Lake Bachar - Former UW-Whitewater pitcher

 

RHRP Dauris Valdez

 

RHRP Evan Miller

 

RHRP Trevor Megill

 

 

Any other interesting Padres names eligible for the Rule 5? Not that this deal needs to get much better, but I am curious to see how the PTBNL plays out (assuming it doesn’t end up being cash).

[StearnsFTW]

I'd give Ruiz a look. Still very young and clearly has wheels.

[82brewcrew82]

I agree that Milwaukee won the upside and value plays with regard to this trade. I also agree that Urias is exactly the type of player that a team like Milwaukee should be targeting. Lastly, I agree that Urias has the minor league pedigree and performance that makes him likely to be a staple in the middle of the diamond for years. Having said that, teams don't get Ws for upside and value so let's not pretend there is zero risk here. Having a great September doesn't really answer those questions for me on either offense or defense. I do put a lot of faith in the scouting department so I have no question they see something in Lauer that they can leverage. I do think that eventually this trade is looked upon as a very good one for the Brewers but we aren't there yet and its not a given.

[82brewcrew82]

Any guesses on the PTBNL?

 

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

 

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...

 

 

1B/3B Jason Vosler

 

2B Esteury Ruiz

 

OF Buddy Reed

 

OF Michael Gettys

 

RHP Lake Bachar - Former UW-Whitewater pitcher

 

RHRP Dauris Valdez

 

RHRP Evan Miller

 

RHRP Trevor Megill

 

 

Any other interesting Padres names eligible for the Rule 5? Not that this deal needs to get much better, but I am curious to see how the PTBNL plays out (assuming it doesn’t end up being cash).

Is it possible the Brewers are wanting the Padres to take a player that may not slip to the Brewers in the rule 5 draft and then have them flip that player to the Brewers? I would assume the Padres select higher than the Brewers in the rule 5 and that would open up a few more possabilities.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Any guesses on the PTBNL?

 

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

 

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...

 

 

1B/3B Jason Vosler

 

 

Vosler seems like the obvious choice out of these guys given his positional versatility between 1B/3B, the Brewers obvious need there, and his left-handedness at the plate. He's a little older (26) but that's why he's a throw-in not a centerpiece.

[MVP2110]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Manny Pina was a PTBNL in the Krod deal correct?

[MVP2110]

Also if we hypothetically brought Moose back, a lineup of

 

Urias

Yelich

Hiura

Moose

Braun

Cain

Shaw

Pina

 

isnt an awful lineup by any stretch

[82brewcrew82]

Also if we hypothetically brought Moose back, a lineup of

 

Urias

Yelich

Hiura

Moose

Braun

Cain

Shaw

Pina

 

isnt an awful lineup by any stretch

That hinges on whether Shaw bounces back or not and/or whether Cain was hurt or in decline. If he does, then yes, we can live with that lineup.

[SRB]

Bit of an aside, but is anyone else sick of the way baseball websites have stopped taking opinions on absolutely anything over the last few years? They realized that they get more clicks by not alienating any team's fan base (with the rare exception for a team like the Marlins that has no fan base), so they will no longer say anything bad about any front office. Any article about any trade they will pretend like both teams won.

 

The Padres made two objectively horrible moves yesterday from a numbers/sabermetrics stand point. The Brewers hoodwinked them with one of the most imbalanced trades in projected-value history, and they gave a preposterous contract to Pomeranz. I've yet to see a single writer take them to town for those moves. BORING!

[Pugger]

Moving Grisham allows the Brewers to lock Braun up with a new extension into his 40’s. Exciting! #RyanBraunForever

 

You forgot to post this in [sarcasm]blue[/sarcasm].

[SRB]

Is it possible the Brewers are wanting the Padres to take a player that may not slip to the Brewers in the rule 5 draft and then have them flip that player to the Brewers? I would assume the Padres select higher than the Brewers in the rule 5 and that would open up a few more possabilities.

 

[sarcasm]The PTBNL is... Zack Brown![/sarcasm]

[brewtank34]

I am not a scout and don’t have the resources that most of you have; however watching the very limited clips of Urias’ offensive skill set, I am extremely intrigued with his oppo capabilities at Miller Park/AmFam. With our shortened right field, I could see his Hr numbers rise.

[Eye Black]

Is it possible the Brewers are wanting the Padres to take a player that may not slip to the Brewers in the rule 5 draft and then have them flip that player to the Brewers? I would assume the Padres select higher than the Brewers in the rule 5 and that would open up a few more possabilities.

 

[sarcasm]The PTBNL is... Zack Brown![/sarcasm]

Haha, nice.

 

I am skeptical that the Padres would make a selection on the Brewers behalf because I think the Rule 5 draft might actually be A.J. Preller’s favorite day of the year.

[Eye Black]

Here is the Baseball Trade Values article regarding the trade: Making sense of the Padres/Brewers trade

[SRB]

Here is the Baseball Trade Values article regarding the trade: Making sense of the Padres/Brewers trade

 

This is nonsense! Stick by you numbers or they are meaningless. Urias was a consensus top-20 prospect coming into 2019, and he proceeded to absolutely decimate AAA pitching (.410 wOBA) over most of 2019. The fact that he had 249 so-so plate appearances as a 22-year-old in the majors (which were arguably BABIP based, because he maintained solid BB/K numbers) means his value dropped $40 million?

 

His overall season should have increased his prospect value.

[SRB]

Teams make bad moves. What happened to baseball writers with enough confidence in their methods to push back and not try to rationalize everything any team does.

 

The Padres made an idiotic move a couple years ago to when they inexplicably gave Eric Hosmer a mega-contract. Anyone with a minimal familiarity with saber metrics could have told you that as a bad move, and surprise, so far it was! The Padres are a bad front office.

[johnbitzer]

I appreciate the advice, but I respectfully disagree. Models are dynamic -- you can't ignore real data if you want to make them more accurate over time. We definitely stand by our methodology. As with my Zillow analogy, Zillow can't insist that a house is still worth $500K if it was sold for $250K. It will take that into account as new information, in order to make the model smarter. That's all we're doing.

 

The good news for Brewers fans is, you should still be happy you got a great deal.

[SRB]

I appreciate the advice, but I respectfully disagree. Models are dynamic -- you can't ignore real data if you want to make them more accurate over time. We definitely stand by our methodology. As with my Zillow analogy, Zillow can't insist that a house is still worth $500K if it was sold for $250K. It will take that into account as new information, in order to make the model smarter. That's all we're doing.

 

The good news for Brewers fans is, you should still be happy you got a great deal.

 

What new "data" is there, other than they don't want to accept that one team fleeced another? If the model is adjusted to try and equalize any trade that goes through, I think that undercuts its value.

 

(Edit: though I apologize for the flippant tone, as I didn't realize the actual author would be reading the thread My ire isn't directed at your particular analysis, just the fact that nobody will seem to acknowledge that the Brewers just pulled over a massive swindle.)

Edited November 28, 2019 by SRB

[MVP2110]

Does Lauer have four or five years of control? I've heard conflicting reports

[MadThinker88]

Does Lauer have four or five years of control? I've heard conflicting reports

 

According to Baseball Reference, Lauer isn't arbitration eligible until the 2021 season & free agency for the 2025 season.

That would be 5 years of control

[Montezuma]

Arcia will not be in the new Brewer uni's this year

[Eye Black]

Arcia will not be in the new Brewer uni's this year

Well he’s already checked that box ...