Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[Soupbone]

If you take away those 3 starts in Colorado his ERA was 3.92. He's left handed and has 5 years of control. I think the pitching side of the trade works for the Brewers.

[Eye Black]

Eric Longenhagen wrote FanGraphs analysis of the trade, Analyzing the Brewers and Padres Swap of Young Big Leaguers

 

Also below is Kiley McDaniel’s reaction during his FanGraphs Chat earlier today...

 

[bensheeps]

wow, Zach Davies, I will miss his babyface

As bensheeps can attest, my eldest nephew (now age 19) and Zach bear a resemblance. I felt fulfilled as a Brewer fan auntie when they got to pose for a photo together a couple of On Decks ago.

 

While my entire family will miss Zach because he genuinely seemed like a good guy, we will miss him even more so due to the fact that he will always be "Jackson" to us in honor of Hawing's nephew.

[StearnsFTW]

I kind of think the Padres got the best player in this trade. They got a pitcher who has made 111 major leagues starts with a 1.29 whip, 3.91 era and 2.5:1 k : bb ratio. He’ll probably improve upon those numbers pitching in the larger parks on the west coast. I know I’d be thrilled had the Brewers acquired a starter with those career numbers.

 

 

Davies frustrated the crap out of me...nibble, nibble, nibble(go to 3-0), then groove a fast(if you can call it that)ball and get tattooed. If he didn't have his control, he was useless, and that happened way too much...especially down the stretch this last year. I'm not sad to see him go, at all.

 

Are you sure that you read DAVIES on the back of the pitcher you were watching? Because this really isn't true at all.

 

You didn't like Davies because he didn't throw 98 MPH heat. Just admit it.

 

I freely admit to not giving Davies the benefit of the doubt because of his stature and velocity. He won me over with his results though.

 

Having said that, I won't lose much sleep over losing him and think Lauer will be a similar quality pitcher in time.

 

I like Urias more than most and would've done this deal easily without Lauer. He's just very nice icing on the cake.

[wildcat83]

I really like this trade overall. I am pretty surprised by all the talk of moving Arcia. Seems odd to sell high on a guy like Grisham just to turn around and sell low on Arcia. To me you give Arcia time to up his value with a new hitting coach, and at worst he’s a solid late inning defensive replacement.

[JosephC]

I love this deal because I think Urias upside makes the trade worth it. And I'm not basing that off of prospect rankings, but rather Urias' consistent production through the minors. Over 2000 MiLB at-bats, and to this point has posted a career .397 OBP/.830 OPS. Grisham did a lot in 2019 to close that MiLB statistical gap with Urias, but Urias was so much more consistent through the minors. It wouldn't be a bit surprising if Grisham turned out to be the better major league player, especially in this environment of home run, home run, home run. But if I were to ever make a mistake on a player, I'd want to make that error with the player with the better and more consistent track record, and in this deal that is Urias.

 

I just hope Urias sticks at shortstop because he has the reputation of being a much better second baseman and both DRS and UZR/150 back that up although there certainly isn't enough data to make that definitive.

 

I do have some concerns when looking at Lauer. Old scouting reports said he has a pretty decent floor and likely pitches in a major league rotation but also has a limited ceiling, maybe could be as good as a #3 starter but is more than likely a back-of-the-rotation starter. I really don't see anything on the MLB stat sheet to make me think anything different. Pretty much a fastball/cutter guy with average velocity that has a curveball as his third pitch. However, so far the four-seam fastball has graded as a positive pitch and the rest have all been negatives. Last year there were 88 pitchers that has at least 140 innings pitched (picked 140 because Lauer finished with 149 2/3), and Lauer ranked 65th in ground ball percentage. On the flip side, he ranked 20th in HR/FB% with a well above average percent (11.7%). xFIP obviously compenstates for that, but it puts him at a 4.77 pitcher. If that HR/FB% swings from a favorable rate in PETCO to a negative rate in Miller Park, it's not at all crazy to see Lauer as being a 5 ERA pitcher.

[Brewcrewin07]

I kind of think the Padres got the best player in this trade. They got a pitcher who has made 111 major leagues starts with a 1.29 whip, 3.91 era and 2.5:1 k : bb ratio. He’ll probably improve upon those numbers pitching in the larger parks on the west coast. I know I’d be thrilled had the Brewers acquired a starter with those career numbers.

 

 

Davies frustrated the crap out of me...nibble, nibble, nibble(go to 3-0), then groove a fast(if you can call it that)ball and get tattooed. If he didn't have his control, he was useless, and that happened way too much...especially down the stretch this last year. I'm not sad to see him go, at all.

 

Are you sure that you read DAVIES on the back of the pitcher you were watching? Because this really isn't true at all.

 

You didn't like Davies because he didn't throw 98 MPH heat. Just admit it.

 

 

That is some of it, only because if you throw that hard and can miss bats, it's much easier to get out of your own jams. He didn't have that option. How soon we all forget that glorious day he had at Miller park against the Cubs this year. he had 3 good months...April, May and September. In June, July and August his ERA's were..5.40, 4.67 and 5.09 including back to back starts in July against the Cubs and Reds where he gave up 13 earned runs. His K/9 was a paltry 5.7...if he were Greg Maddux fine, but he simply wasn't, and most of his Brewers career he was their #2 or #3 guy?? No thanks...time to move on. bring in a guy that can actually miss bats to take his spot.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Urias’ near .400 career MiLB OBP would play real nice infront of Yelich/Hiura. Maybe not right away, but would be nice. Gotta get on base for the boppers.

[clancyphile]

Grisham is someone I hate to see go.

 

I get it: To get quality, the Brewers had to give quality - and with the error, it may have been for the best to get him a fresh start outside the NL Central. Still, I think he could have been the Crew's leadoff hitter with his OBP skills.

 

Davies was solid - he could give you six innings.

 

I like Lauer - I think he has upside. Urias - with OBP skills, he is miles better than Arcia as a #8 hitter if he hits as he did in 2019.

 

Urias and Hiura, though, could easily be batting 1-2 for the next five years...

[MVP2110]

Any chance Urias can develop into our future leadoff hitter. Quite the OBP in the minors

[SRB]

Just in time for the new three-batter bullpen rule (and with a little selective sampling):

 

1. CF Lorenzo Cain (.422 wOBA in 2018 against LHP)

2. RF Christian Yelich (.473 wOBA in 2019 against RHP)

3. SS Luis Urias (.404 wOBA in career against LHP)

4. 2B Keston Hiura (.418 wOBA in career against RHP)

5. LF Ryan Braun (.384 wOBA in 2019 against LHP)

6. 3B Travis Shaw (.374 wOBA in 2018 against RHP)

7. C Manny Pina (.316 wOBA in career against LHP)

8. 1B empty (handicap to opposing teams)

 

[3and2Fastball]

Any chance Urias can develop into our future leadoff hitter. Quite the OBP in the minors

 

Yes. Although he doesn’t seem like the prototypical leadoff hitter in that he doesn’t steal bases well. That’s OK in today’s Baseball of course...

[TJseven7]

I'm a Davies defender. 2 years of him in Arby 2 and 3 for 5 years of control on Lauer who has showed solid results to this point. I take the control every time straight up.

I was very excited to see the rise of Grisham. I wanted him to take over for Braun in 2021. I trade him for a middle infielder with Urias' upside without hesitation. Straight up.

 

We won this deal on value by a mile. They won 2019 production. Maybe even 2020 production too. Value was MKE by a mile.

 

LF only OFs have to be very special offensively to avoid being dime a dozen.

I'm excited about Urias' slash numbers. Great hit tool grade, great MiLB average. WALKS! 280/360 would be a great guy to put in front of Yelich Hiura if Cain doesn't rebound. Even last year when he got half a year, he struggled but his OBP was still higher than Arcia's any year in the majors. The potential worth of Urias is much much higher than Grisham's.

 

I'm also hopeful that Milwaukee plays this as lull year. Don't spend big. Wait for a cool market (many say this one shows early signs of being hot). There are so many issues to figure out that plunging ahead would be a bit reckless. They have 1 starter in Woodruff and 3 guys that they are sorting out in Houser, Burnes, Lauer. Freddy and Suter also are looking for their role on this team. Shaw is either dead in the water or it was a strange 1 year flop. Lose Grandal. Moose a FA. Braun's garbage deal still on the books. Cain concerns in regards to the thumb. Knebel's return.

 

Lots of questions. On top of that Urias looks like another 2b more than anything else. Can Hiura's glove stay there is yet another question. A lot of people are compelled to keep him at 2b because of the value of it. Understood, but if the defense is killing his offensive value and LF makes his defense a wash, he's still a 4-5 WAR bat in LF. That's pretty special. I want them to position for 2021 and 2022. 2020 is far too up in the air. This deal pulls value and positions the team for 2021 better. I love that. This team values the middle. C 2b SS CF. I agree with that. LF who burst on the scene for a top 20 2b/SS prospect who is still insanely young. Easy trade. Take the value.

Edited November 28, 2019 by TJseven7

[TJseven7]

Any chance Urias can develop into our future leadoff hitter. Quite the OBP in the minors

 

Yes. Although he doesn’t seem like the prototypical leadoff hitter in that he doesn’t steal bases well. That’s OK in today’s Baseball of course...

 

He runs well enough to round the bases with Yelich Hiura batting behind him. We need a 360+ OBP up there. Cain's down year was devastating to the offense.

[brewcrewdue80]

Though this trade is an upgrade for the Brewers(and yes it's still early), this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two(I still love the Castellanos idea above and also one I had expressed) and also still need a HUGE rotation upgrade. For now, I'm pleased but still don't like the lineup...yet. Let's see what the rest of the off season brings

 

Can you ever stop ********? Look Stearns made a move. It improves the team going forward. But here you are shutting it down Nov 27th because it doesnt fill your top priority. Every single offseason for 3?years now Stearns cant live up to your Madden NFL Trade Skills. How did Darvish do? Arrieta? Who else? Your complaints like 3dozen others to have made the comment, Replacing Grandal, improve Starting Pitching, Find a 1b better than any that exists currently. Is Noted. For the thousandth time. Your speaking to a large crowd here that knows not only Baseball but likely more about the Brewers' needs than you do. Just go Meh from here on out when every move you have problem with Because it isnt your #1 priority. This addresses easily, what should be 2 of the top 5 in priorities. I dont think Arcia is #1 at SS now after this. He's the hybrid 2b/SS even 3b backup now. Lauer gives the Brewers a LH SP that has been missing and lamented for numerous times now. Basically swapped 1st rd picks and somehow got a promising SS for a #4 type of starter at best.

[brewmann04]

Davies will do well in SD IMO.But i think we all know David will need to find another arm to put behind Woody.who go deep into games especially with the new rules for Sept.

[adambr2]

Not bad.

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[pacopete4]

Moving Grisham allows the Brewers to lock Braun up with a new extension into his 40’s. Exciting! #RyanBraunForever

[rickh150]

Perhaps we are just flipping Urias for starting pitching or he's a part to get Lindor. I'm thinking we have a two year window here to be players and then serious thought on a tear down and rebuild need to be taking place with Yelich nearing the end of his contract.

 

We really can't be THAT patient with another SS project, can we?

[JohnBriggs12]

I know that everyone hates to see Grisham go, but let's not overlook what Tyrone Taylor did the 2nd half of the year for San Antonio. After a very sluggish first half, he went on a tear, not dissimilar to the breakout Grisham experienced. Post All Star game, Taylor posted a nifty .331/.398/.556, and topped that off by going 4 for 10 in his first taste in the major leagues in the middle of a pennant race. When Stearns says he's happy with the OF depth, it's clear to me that Taylor's late season surge is one reason why. Like Grisham, he can play all 3 OF positions, giving the Brewers two OF backups that can do that, one a LH hitter and one a RH hitter. Furthermore, over the full year, Taylor ripped LH pitching in AAA to the tune of .311/.362/.575.

[PeaveyFury]

 

We really can't be THAT patient with another SS project, can we?

 

That 'project' already matches or exceeds Arcia's production, so I'd think they're fine with it.

[rickh150]

Hey, we trading guys while their value was high! Nice.

 

So you're saying that Hader is gone in a few weeks? His value will NEVER be higher...

[rickh150]

 

We really can't be THAT patient with another SS project, can we?

 

That 'project' already matches or exceeds Arcia's production, so I'd think they're fine with it.

 

No, I don't think so....his offense needs to be better. His major league numbers have to be much Brinson better.

He really hasn't been tested as a major league SS defensively. If a guy has two positions attached to his name, it usually means he isn't all that strong defensively with the more difficult position. We will see. Does he have any minor league awards for D

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's not panic that they haven't replaced Grandal, Moustakas or Thames and desperately could use a bona fide top half of the rotation starter, not to mention they have about 150-200 relief innings to replace. They have even more salary wiggle room. If all 3 of Rendon, Donaldson and Moustakas sign elsewhere, Wheeler ends up in Minnesota or Cincinnati and Narvaez gets traded somewhere else, then it's full blown panic time and we're looking at what the Brewers can pick up that they will be able to flip at the deadline, because contending will be far fetched.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Let's not panic that they haven't replaced Grandal, Moustakas or Thames and desperately could use a bona fide top half of the rotation starter, not to mention they have about 150-200 relief innings to replace. They have even more salary wiggle room. If all 3 of Rendon, Donaldson and Moustakas sign elsewhere, Wheeler ends up in Minnesota or Cincinnati and Narvaez gets traded somewhere else, then it's full blown panic time and we're looking at what the Brewers can pick up that they will be able to flip at the deadline, because contending will be far fetched.

 

Right on!

 

It

is

November

28th!!!

 

No one should even be thinking about panicking yet. Whole lotta offseason left.