Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[markedman5]

My goodness! On paper this is the most lopsided trade in the Brewers favor that I can remember going through. Not going to read the comments because I'm sure they're 50% people complaining about trading future Cy Young Zach Davies

 

Welcome, Luis Urias!!!

 

Actually everybody likes or loves it......which obviously makes me think we got screwed.....

[HarveysWBs]

Rendon? And Wheeler?

 

You guys are setting yourselves up for some big disappointment.

 

[Jaylyn]

And then this pops up: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/orioles-reportedly-working-to-trade-dylan-bundy.html

Got me thinking, DS seems to make moves quickly.

[MNBrew]

This was a interesting surprise this morning. Hat tip to mattyo last night on his comment that he had a feeling we had something brewing with the Padres (post #10: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39270).

 

Seems like a very Stearns-type move. Biggest thing I see: For the first time, real competition for Arcia at SS. I don't think he's really ever had that in his time in MIL. The Brewers only have 5 IFs on the 40-man before this move, and one of those is Saladino, who, like Wilkerson all last winter, seems to keep hanging in there on the 40-man for no apparent reason.

 

It's interesting to note that this makes 3 acquisitions by Stearns who are solid hitters (Yelich, Cain, potentially Urias), not just 3TO bats. Along with Hiura, that makes for a pretty significant influx and therefore change to the team's overall hitting profile. And Braun already was that type of hitter -- one of their main/only ones for a while.

 

Grisham ratcheted up his game this year, although no one really saw that emergence coming as it did. Maybe that was his one burst. Maybe he'll be a Padres fixture for a while. Who knows? Regardless, the Brewers still have Taylor & Ray at the top of the OF pipeline (in that order, I'd think).

 

I think it's also noteworthy that Lauer was a 1st round pick in '16 who's already got 2 full seasons in the bigs. Seems like there's potentially more up-side there. Nothing fancy yet, but an interesting move and also necessary (not to mention cheaper) with Anderson and now Davies traded -- both of them also "nothing fancy" starters but generally more productive than not.

 

I don't think this guarantees something else big happening, but it's a change in the landscape for sure.

[burnzy24]

ESPN is now claiming that Grisham was a top 50 prospect entering the 2019 season.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28176119/source-padres-deal-luis-urias-eric-lauer-brewers-trent-grisham-zach-davies

[djoctagone]

eric lauer has all three minor league options intact.

 

luis urias has two minor league options remaining.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

[MNBrew]

ESPN is now claiming that Grisham was a top 50 prospect entering the 2019 season.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28176119/source-padres-deal-luis-urias-eric-lauer-brewers-trent-grisham-zach-davies

An obvious error. The closest Grisham ever came to that list was talking to someone on it. . . . unless they must've meant the Brewers' top 50 list.

[IntentionalHBP]

Lauer has some solid numbers throughout his short minor league career.

 

2.93 ERA 178 IP 195 SO 55 BB .236 AVG 1.19 WHIP

[MrTPlush]

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

 

He is pretty much Chase Anderson, slightly worse thus far in his career. Which is kinda strange why the Brewers would go after him as they hated Anderson's profile. Maybe they think they can improve something in him. At worst he is a cheap #5 starter.

[82brewcrew82]

This is a complete upside play on the Brewers part. Looking at major league production the Padres got the better pitcher (125 ERA+ to a 95 ERA+ and that is with Lauer pitching the majority of his games in the NL west). The also got the better position player. Lauer improved year one to year two but he is giong to need to take another step (and probably a big one given the change in park factors) to be a plus in the pitching exchange. Urias definately has some potential and was brought in specifically to threaten Arcia. If you believe in the scouting department of the Milwaukee Brewers then you probably like this trade but there is plenty to be concerned about.

[Lathund]

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

 

He is pretty much Chase Anderson, slightly worse thus far in his career. Which is kinda strange why the Brewers would go after him as they hated Anderson's profile. Maybe they think they can improve something in him. At worst he is a cheap #5 starter.

 

Is it really strange though? Lauer has 5 years of team control, 2 of them for minimum while Anderson had two $9m option years. Lauer is 24, Anderson 31. So they get a cheaper Anderson(ish), and believe he can be better.

[pacopete4]

Wheelin-dealin Stearns at it again!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

 

He is pretty much Chase Anderson, slightly worse thus far in his career. Which is kinda strange why the Brewers would go after him as they hated Anderson's profile. Maybe they think they can improve something in him. At worst he is a cheap #5 starter.

 

Well they're probably looking at 2 big differences between Lauer and Anderson...

 

7 years of age (24/31)

 

--- and ---

 

One looks to be on the upswing while the other regressed in many metrics last year.

 

Dunno.

 

Should also add that left-handedness and salary are big plusses in Lauer's favor as well.

Edited November 27, 2019 by True Blue Brew Crew

[MrTPlush]

Last year, Lauer's hit rate, walk rate, and FIP went down, his K rate, IP, and ERA+ went up, and his HR rate stayed the same. Good trend.

 

He is pretty much Chase Anderson, slightly worse thus far in his career. Which is kinda strange why the Brewers would go after him as they hated Anderson's profile. Maybe they think they can improve something in him. At worst he is a cheap #5 starter.

 

Is it really strange though? Lauer has 5 years of team control, 2 of them for minimum while Anderson had two $9m option years. Lauer is 24, Anderson 31. So they get a cheaper Anderson(ish), and believe he can be better.

 

Only slightly, I am not saying it is a bad get. A league minimum #5 starter is good with me.

 

I only say it is strange because the Brewers didn't like Anderson in 2018, kept him in 2019, and again seemed to hate using him once again.

 

I like the addition, but just somewhat surprised they went out and got Chase Anderson 2.0. That is all.

[LouisEly]

Lauer has some solid numbers throughout his short minor league career.

 

2.93 ERA 178 IP 195 SO 55 BB .236 AVG 1.19 WHIP

And he did that in the CAL League, Texas League, and PCL, all very hitter-friendly leagues.

 

Which tempers my enthusiasm about Urias. Especially the power spike in AAA this past year.

[Lathund]

Also worth noting with Lauer: He has a 19 ERA at Coors in 4 starts. So just keep him away from there and the overall numbers immediately look better

[MadThinker88]

FYI about Lauer - he grew up in the Lorain-Cleveland OH area & went to college at Kent State (many moons after Travis Shaw and even longer after I did).

 

There is baseball pitching theory that pitchers from the 'cold-weather' states (ie not having baseball year round) take a little longer to develop and have possibility of lasting longer (due to fewer innings pitched in their youth)...

[packer822]

how about bundy and villar for arcia ….ray....and brown.....villar at ss and urias at 3rd.....

[HarveysWBs]

Lauer has some solid numbers throughout his short minor league career.

 

2.93 ERA 178 IP 195 SO 55 BB .236 AVG 1.19 WHIP

And he did that in the CAL League, Texas League, and PCL, all very hitter-friendly leagues.

 

Which tempers my enthusiasm about Urias. Especially the power spike in AAA this past year.

I'd be more worried if Urias' value was tied to power numbers from the minors. They weren't, because he had no power in the minors barring last year and the juiced ball at AAA, but he was already a well-established prospect by that point.

 

I doubt the Brewers are expecting 20 HRs next year from Urias. You come to the Urias show for the bat to ball skills, and maybe stay for the power growth in a few years.

[homer]

My only hesitation wit Urias is that he's done most of his damage in very hitter friendly environments (El Paso and a stint in the Cal League). Granted he was still super young for his level so that might even it out a bit

[IntentionalHBP]

Rosenthal tweeted earlier this year near the trade deadline that Padres/Brewers discussed Grisham trade.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Urias was the youngest player in his league at AA and lead the league in OBP as a 20 year old.

 

Kid can rake and has great idea of the strike zone.

 

 

A prototypical leadoff hitter who knows how to get on base is super valuable to MLB teams.

[Boomer5]

This is very good trade. Never got the Grisham love so selling at his high for a former top 20 prospect is very solid. I like Davies more than most but getting a young starter with a lot of control seems reasonable.

[markedman5]

Lauer pitched very well against the Dodgers last season......3.13 era.

 

Also he seems to have reverse splits....at least so far in the majors.