Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[markedman5]

Before today’s games

 

Urias OPS 772

 

Grisham 771

[Jopal78]

Before today’s games

 

Urias OPS 772

 

Grisham 771

 

Of course, a Gold Glove Centerfielder with a 771 will start in the major leagues for a decade. A 3B or UTIL with a .772 not so much.

 

The Brewers didn’t get pantsed in this trade as it initially appeared but it will probably always be a push to a slight loss for the Brewers depending upon on Lauer’s future production. Because while Urias was blocked in San Diego by Machado, Tatis and Croenenworth; Grisham became a starter for Milwaukee upon making his major league debut.

[markedman5]

Grisham won the gold glove last season…….this year if the gold glove is given to the best centerfielder it will be Bader. He has 15 drs in 622 innings. Grisham 7 in 835 innings.

 

Urias could end up being a starting 2nd baseman where his bat will play just fine. Obviously we have Wong there now but as we all know things change.

 

 

Bottom line…..the trade has not turned out to be the disaster that many claimed.

[Jopal78]

 

 

Bottom line…..the trade has not turned out to be the disaster that many claimed.

 

I think from a pure talent perspective it’s fine. The Brewers didn’t get significantly better, but Urias and Lauer are nice players to have.

 

However from a strategy perspective it’s a loss for Milwaukee. They traded a starting outfielder to get Urias, then proceeded to use previous payroll space signing free agent outfielders in consecutive seasons. Then the Brewers followed that up by making multi year commitments to Adames and Wong rendering Urias either a 3B where his bat and defense are ordinary or a utility player. They also spent one of their first round picks in 2021 on a college 2B who could be knocking to n the door as Wong’s contract expired.

[pacopete4]

At least Grisham will enjoy the playoffs… from his couch.

[SRB]

Urias just turned 24 years old a couple months ago and he is finally showing off again the new tool (game power) that made him an elite prospect in 2019. I think the notion that Urias has hit his ceiling is a bit premature.

[timpep]

I was originally one of those shouting from rooftops about how the Brewers lost this trade big. I have definitely changed my opinion some, although I still am not a fan of the trade.

 

I think it would help a lot if we didn't effectively replace Grisham with JBJ.

[PlayerHader]

I was originally one of those shouting from rooftops about how the Brewers lost this trade big. I have definitely changed my opinion some, although I still am not a fan of the trade.

 

I think it would help a lot if we didn't effectively replace Grisham with JBJ.

 

Not sure how effectively…

[PeaveyFury]

They also spent one of their first round picks in 2021 on a college 2B who could be knocking to n the door as Wong’s contract expired.

 

I would bet a bajillion dollars that their draft picks are completely independent of anything related to the MLB roster, mostly because that's a horrendous way to draft.

[Jopal78]

They also spent one of their first round picks in 2021 on a college 2B who could be knocking to n the door as Wong’s contract expired.

 

I would bet a bajillion dollars that their draft picks are completely independent of anything related to the MLB roster, mostly because that's a horrendous way to draft.

 

Yeah, I doubt a team drafts for need at the major league level. But it’s a true story the Brewers drafted a collegiate 2nd basemen in the first round and gave him a $2.2 million dollar bonus. I would bet a bajillion dollars when a team gives a multimillion dollar bonus to a first round pick they anticipate the guy will play in the major leagues.

[PeaveyFury]

I would bet a bajillion dollars when a team gives a multimillion dollar bonus to a first round pick they anticipate the guy will play in the major leagues.

 

And what percentage of those guys actually do?

[clancyphile]

I was originally one of those shouting from rooftops about how the Brewers lost this trade big. I have definitely changed my opinion some, although I still am not a fan of the trade.

 

I think it would help a lot if we didn't effectively replace Grisham with JBJ.

 

Kind of the same here. I thought it was a bad deal after 2020, but 2021 has lessened the imbalance, but overall, still a loss.

 

Grisham would have obviated the need to sign JBJ and Garcia. So, in essence, replacing him ran to about $22 million in payroll this season. But Urias could hold down 3B acceptably for a while, and can also play SS/2B. Kind of a wash, if you will.

 

The Crew kind of came off second-best in the Davies/Lauer deal, though. I think Davies is a better #5 than Brett Anderson, and when you add him to the rotation, it's a durable 1-5, especially with the Brewers defense - including Grisham.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I was originally one of those shouting from rooftops about how the Brewers lost this trade big. I have definitely changed my opinion some, although I still am not a fan of the trade.

 

I think it would help a lot if we didn't effectively replace Grisham with JBJ.

 

Kind of the same here. I thought it was a bad deal after 2020, but 2021 has lessened the imbalance, but overall, still a loss.

 

Grisham would have obviated the need to sign JBJ and Garcia. So, in essence, replacing him ran to about $22 million in payroll this season. But Urias could hold down 3B acceptably for a while, and can also play SS/2B. Kind of a wash, if you will.

 

The Crew kind of came off second-best in the Davies/Lauer deal, though. I think Davies is a better #5 than Brett Anderson, and when you add him to the rotation, it's a durable 1-5, especially with the Brewers defense - including Grisham.

 

Except the Padres used Davies as a piece in the Darvish salary dump deal, and the Cubs couldn't give him away at the deadline this year.

[MrTPlush]

I think the end result of this trade is far from over. Grisham and Urias aren't super stars and I would not blink if one (or both) of them end up woefully inconsistent or fall off the earth like a Shaw did...or like a Casey McGehee. If that happens the trade could look lopsided. Of course maybe one takes the next step, who knows.

 

We are a bit lucky Stearns didn't decide to cast off Urias when he acquired Adames, which could have easily happened, much like when he traded Arcia. It was clear they weren't really that high on Urias when Stearns basically called him a utility player after the trade.

[umphrey]

It might not be ideal but its kind of nice when your starting 3B can also play SS and 2B, so if those positions get an injury or poor performance you have more options about how to replace them.

[jjfanec]

The Crew kind of came off second-best in the Davies/Lauer deal, though. I think Davies is a better #5 than Brett Anderson, and when you add him to the rotation, it's a durable 1-5, especially with the Brewers defense - including Grisham.

 

What am i missing here? Davies has an era of almost 5 and makes 6 million more than Anderson. Sure Davies has pitched more innings but part of that is also our 6 man rotation. And Davies has been bad in the those extra innings.

 

And I don't think our defense would be better with Grisham instead of Cain or JBJ. I know Grisham won a gold glove and maybe metrics do say he is better but those two are so good.

[monty57]

Since the trade, Grisham has provided 4.8 fWAR, Davies 1.7, Lauer 0.7 and Urias 1.6. The Padres have four more years of Grisham, and the Brewers have four years of Urias and three years of Lauer.

 

So far, the Padres have gotten the better end of the deal, but the Brewers have more "control" left for their players to potentially close the gap. It wasn't Stearns' best trade, but it wasn't the complete disaster people were making it out to be after 2020.

[Jopal78]

I would bet a bajillion dollars when a team gives a multimillion dollar bonus to a first round pick they anticipate the guy will play in the major leagues.

 

And what percentage of those guys actually do?

 

You're right, MLB should put every eligible amateur's name on a ping pong ball and simply have a lottery to assign amateur talent amongst the teams.

 

In all seriousness, in answer to your facetious question, it depends on the year. It is a fact, however that a player has exponentially greater odds of playing in the major leagues if they were drafted in the first round than in any subsequent round.

 

Whether Tyler Black plays 2B for Milwaukee at some point in the future is truly unknown, but by selecting him in the first round and making him a millionaire, I think its safe to say it is the Brewers intent.

[PeaveyFury]

Whether Tyler Black plays 2B for Milwaukee at some point in the future is truly unknown, but by selecting him in the first round and making him a millionaire, I think its safe to say it is the Brewers intent.

 

Clearly, that's the Brewers desired outcome. But, what I take issue with here is your attempt to categorize a draft pick as something related to the performance/expectations for Luis Urias. At best, it's a stretch. More likely, it's completely off base. The Brewers likely drafted Black because of his potential, his position on the draft board, and his signability/bonus demands relative to their remaining draft bonus pool. Trying to lump that draft pick into anything related to Urias or the current construct of the Major League is almost certainly off-base.

[pacopete4]

I'm glad we have Urias and Lauer over Grisham. I don't care how bad JBJ is right now I like the odds of having two good players versus one and one is starting pitcher.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For all we know, Tyler Black may be this team's 3B or LF of the future. Or perhaps (maybe even more likely) he is a trade chip that the Brewers can use in the next couple seasons to fill a roster hole during this current competitive window.

 

It wasn't all that long ago when there was some thought that the starting infield would include Jake Gatewood at 1B, Hiura at 2B, Arcia at SS and Lucas Erceg at 3B. All were high picks and/or highly rated prospects. Stuff happens.

[Greenleaf1]

Since the trade, Grisham has provided 4.8 fWAR, Davies 1.7, Lauer 0.7 and Urias 1.6. The Padres have four more years of Grisham, and the Brewers have four years of Urias and three years of Lauer.

 

So far, the Padres have gotten the better end of the deal, but the Brewers have more "control" left for their players to potentially close the gap. It wasn't Stearns' best trade, but it wasn't the complete disaster people were making it out to be after 2020.

 

I still stand by the trade pretty much regardless of outcome because the Brewers badly needed offensive production from SS and Urias made a lot of sense with that goal in mind. Even if he was a league average SS offensively, the improvement over Arcia was going to be pretty mammoth, and we could always sign an OF to replace Grisham.

 

Obviously that plan somewhat backfired last year when Urias and Garcia underperformed, but it's looking pretty good in 2021 even if Urias isn't playing SS much anymore.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I guess I just don't see all trades as needing a clear winner and loser, particularly this one - both teams came out pretty good with this deal which primarily involved sending young players who were largely blocked at their primary positions at the MLB level in 2019. The other part of it was essentially trading a progressively more expensive and closer to free agent Davies for Lauer - which in my opinion is a clear bonus for the Brewers simply for longterm payroll flexibility.

 

With Yelich and Cain still under longterm contract, plus Braun with one season left for 2020, it's not like Grisham would've been slated for everyday playing time in the OF in Milwaukee last season. Who knows, maybe Stearns had his eye on signing Garcia before trading Grisham - which would have made him even more blocked for 2020. Nobody could've forecast at the time this trade was made that COVID would've led to Cain opting out in 2020 for most of the year. Urias was also blocked longterm in San Diego at most of his IF positions, so it made sense for the Padres to move him before he was stuck in the role of a bench player/utility IF who wouldn't get as much regular playing time as he's had with the Brewers.

[tmwiese55]

Right, the logic of this was sound at the time even if it started out poorly and didn't quite go as planned. We'd all been clamoring for years they had to fix SS, traded from an area of seeming depth with Cain/Yeli/Braun set as starters last year to try and fix SS. Knowing that OFs are easier to come by if needed, such as a guy like Avi. Of course it's still on them to get the evaluation on a guy like Urias correct, which didn't look good initially but now seems to be ending up OK/solid. Then of course trading limited and expensive control of Davies for longer/cheaper control of Lauer was sound too. The initial issues came down to Urias struggles and it seems like he just needed some time, and still needs to fix his throwing. As of now it looks like a general win/win for both sides.

 

On Urias topic, it popped in my head too if they decide to sign Escobar on like a 2 year deal instead of Garcia I'd be curious if Urias could put some work in and play some OF to maximize his PT and team roster flexibility. Not saying to be a starter, but as a depth guy when people inevitably get hurt or if Taylor struggles, etc. Has the speed and arm strength for it.

[CheezWizHed]

When you consider that the trade was a miss from the original intent - Urias being the starting SS - it is impressive that it is still fairly even overall.

 

And even better that Urias' struggles at SS led to them bringing on Adames. Not every trade needs to be a homerun. A clean single is a good outcome. Just avoid the ugly strike-out on a slider low and away.