Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[KeithStone53151]

This was a very good trade for both teams - back when it was made and even moreso right now...doesn't have to be a clear winner or loser in my book. The fact they exchanged Davies for Lauer at this point looks like a win for the Brewers in terms of both payroll flexibility and years of team control for a decent MLB starter, as the biggest reason Darvish was shipped to San Diego was to get his salary off the Cubs' books longterm IMO.

 

Up until 3 months ago, this trade had a very clear loser. But Lauer's last couple months give me a fair amount of hope that this might work out.

[Oxy]

This was a very good trade for both teams - back when it was made and even moreso right now...doesn't have to be a clear winner or loser in my book. The fact they exchanged Davies for Lauer at this point looks like a win for the Brewers in terms of both payroll flexibility and years of team control for a decent MLB starter, as the biggest reason Darvish was shipped to San Diego was to get his salary off the Cubs' books longterm IMO.

 

Up until 3 months ago, this trade had a very clear loser. But Lauer's last couple months give me a fair amount of hope that this might work out.

 

So, it's been 2 months of bad (which happened to be all of 2020 which skews perception quite a bit), and 3 months of good-- but since the 2 months happened first and lasted an "entire" season it is phrased as "Up until 3 months ago, this trade had a very clear loser..."

 

I'm VERY glad thing are looking good RIGHT NOW (and the past 3 months) as opposed to looking good for us for 2 months of 2020 but trending poorly the last 3 months the way it is for the Padres.

[DHonks]

The Brewers sold high on Grisham. Remember at the start of the 2019 season, and there were only a few of us that hoped he might ever see the big leagues. Nearly everyone on the site had given up on him. It's possible the Brewers front office had some questions going forward regarding whether he could maintain that 2019. What's really weird is that we were hearing he was a corner OF and people weren't high on his D (especially in CF), then he goes and wins a Gold Glove

[rickh150]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

 

 

Yes….So many deals of Stearns are about player control and paying less salary to free up $ for other parts of the team. Often goes unnoticed. You can almost say the Brewers won this trade because of the extra money they saved to spend on other parts of the team.

[DHonks]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

 

 

Yes….So many deals of Stearns are about player control and paying less salary to free up $ for other parts of the team. Often goes unnoticed. You can almost say the Brewers won this trade because of the extra money they saved to spend on other parts of the team.

 

very true. Also, if we hope to sign Hader, Woodruff, and Burnes for the long-term, we'll need to do the Rays approach of churning the rest of the roster. Someone gets to very good, trade them for talented players and develop them.

[timpep]

I'll be honest. I never saw Lauer putting up the kind of numbers he's put up this year. FIP says it's a mirage, but advanced stats don't win games.

 

It's been a rough year with injuries for Grisham, it will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the season.

 

Urias might end up being one of the best utility guys in the game for a couple of years until he takes over at 2nd.

 

Lots of stuff still to come for sure to determine how this trade will be looked at in a few years. I'm definitely not as down on it as I was to start the year though.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

 

 

Yes….So many deals of Stearns are about player control and paying less salary to free up $ for other parts of the team. Often goes unnoticed. You can almost say the Brewers won this trade because of the extra money they saved to spend on other parts of the team.

Unless that money is spent on JBJ. The ineffectiveness in the OF in 2020 (and having few other options, due to trading away Grisham) resulted in us signing JBJ and now likely stuck with him for 3 years. I agree with you in principle just that it was not realized

[markedman5]

We aren't going to be stuck with Bradley for 3 years......this year and 1 more at most.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-brewers-deal#:~:text=The%20Brewers%20finalized%20a%20two,contract%20is%20worth%20%2424%20million.

[tmwiese55]

The trade itself is working itself out to be a general win/win at this point.

 

However, 'd say the biggest X factor to this would be that if we hadn't done it and had a planned 2020 OF of Braun, Cain, Yeli, with Grisham as the 4th we possibly don't sign Avi since we have 4 guys already. Then we go into 2021 with Grisham, Cain, Yeli. Do we sign Bradley for the 4th, possibly but maybe not. So we might have 20-25 mil extra money to spend without. In theory, if Arcia continued to struggle the Adames trade wouldn't be affected.

 

Thing is I'm not really even sure where they'd have efficiently spent it otherwise, Turner wasn't going to leave LA. Castellanos would've been the big what if, but like how I started with this we'd have already had Braun, Yeli, Cain, Grisham so don't think OF money is where it would be spent. Maybe they could've gotten him and played him at 1B? Donaldson last year to an NL team didn't make sense to me, but that could've been.

[MrTPlush]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

 

 

Yes….So many deals of Stearns are about player control and paying less salary to free up $ for other parts of the team. Often goes unnoticed. You can almost say the Brewers won this trade because of the extra money they saved to spend on other parts of the team.

 

Yes, so relieved we had extra money to sign JBJ

[ClosetBrewerFan]

We aren't going to be stuck with Bradley for 3 years......this year and 1 more at most.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-brewers-deal#:~:text=The%20Brewers%20finalized%20a%20two,contract%20is%20worth%20%2424%20million.

You are correct. There is a $12M mutual option for 2023 with an $8M buyout. That is highly unlikely to be agreed upon. I read it as a player option

[monty57]

Bradley's contract is a bit confusing. From Cot's:

 

Jackie Bradley cf

2 years/$24M (2021-22), plus 2023 option

 

- 2 years/$24 (2021-22), plus 2023 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 3/5/21

 

- 21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

 

- $3.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 14, 2022 and $3M on Jan. 13, 2023, and $166,667 on Jan. 12, 2023

 

- $6.5M of player option would be deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2022, and $6.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

 

- $6.5M buyout for 2022 would be payable $3M on Jan. 14, 2022, and $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2023, and $3.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

 

- $8M buyout for 2023 would be payable $1M on Jan. 12, 2024, and $7M on Jan. 15, 2025

 

So, assuming he exercises his player option, which seems very likely, the Brewers will owe him $3M next year, $333,333 on 1/13/22, and $6.167M on 1/12/24. Then, assuming the mutual option is declined (again very likely), the Brewers would owe him $1M on 1/12/24 and $7M on 1/15/25.

 

Summing that up, he'd get $3M in paychecks next year, $333,333 on 1/13/22, $333,333 on 1/14/22, $3M on 1/13/23, $7,333,667 on 1/12/24, and $7M on 1/15/25.

 

While we may not have to suffer through watching him play for three full seasons, the Brewers will have to pay him until 2025. In all, $6M while he's playing for us, and $18M deferred.

[rickh150]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

 

 

Yes….So many deals of Stearns are about player control and paying less salary to free up $ for other parts of the team. Often goes unnoticed. You can almost say the Brewers won this trade because of the extra money they saved to spend on other parts of the team.

 

Yes, so relieved we had extra money to sign JBJ

 

If it helps you, think of the extra saved $ as extra mistakes the team can affordably make.

[thebruce44]

I'll be honest. I never saw Lauer putting up the kind of numbers he's put up this year. FIP says it's a mirage, but advanced stats don't win games.

 

It's been a rough year with injuries for Grisham, it will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the season.

 

Urias might end up being one of the best utility guys in the game for a couple of years until he takes over at 2nd.

 

Lots of stuff still to come for sure to determine how this trade will be looked at in a few years. I'm definitely not as down on it as I was to start the year though.

 

Just to put this into context, Lauer's xFIP is 4.24, which, if he was qualified on IPs, would rank him in the low 80s. That is a pretty solid #3 starter just by math alone.

 

Davies is at xFIP 5.24.

[timpep]

I'll be honest. I never saw Lauer putting up the kind of numbers he's put up this year. FIP says it's a mirage, but advanced stats don't win games.

 

It's been a rough year with injuries for Grisham, it will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the season.

 

Urias might end up being one of the best utility guys in the game for a couple of years until he takes over at 2nd.

 

Lots of stuff still to come for sure to determine how this trade will be looked at in a few years. I'm definitely not as down on it as I was to start the year though.

 

Just to put this into context, Lauer's xFIP is 4.24, which, if he was qualified on IPs, would rank him in the low 80s. That is a pretty solid #3 starter just by math alone.

 

Davies is at xFIP 5.24.

 

I guess xFIP also says his 3.50ERA is a mirage. Thanks for backing me up.

[rickh150]

Most runs on the team?

Urias

Fourth most quality starts?

Lauer

[StearnsFTW]

If they were given a chance to do a "takeback" on this deal, there's no chance the Brewers would.

[tigerbrew]

In a game vs Cubs on 12 August 2021, Luis Urias set a franchise record in extra-base hits in one game.

 

 

 

[sveumrules]

Urias had a 103 wRC+ entering the game & currently has a 113 wRC+ after it. A 10% jump in wRC+ when you've already got a lil over 400 PAs under your belt is pretty nuts.

 

Guess that's what happens when you make (franchise) history.

[BallFour]

Lauer will never be a FIP darling, especially with him throwing his cutter more which has a weak 16.4% K rate but a hard hit rate of just 27.5%, a really good percentage for a type of fastball pitch. As a whole he is 92nd percentile in hard hit % this year. He has done a really good job lately of avoiding the home run ball. 8 homers given up in his first 24 innings compared to just 3 in the last 45.3 with 2 of those 3 coming at Coors.

[jjfanec]

I think Lauer profiles as a solid 4/5 starter which has a lot of value for us. He is much cheaper than a free agent. Urias has shown so much more power than I expect so I am intrigued to see how that plays out. I liked this trade when we made it. Was feeling regret by the end of last year and now am back to liking it. Honestly it may just be time for me to trust Stearns and our scouting department. They obviously like what they saw in these guys and then with Adames and Tellez they have brought in 4 controllable players who have been very key contributors

[sveumrules]

Lauer will never be a FIP darling, especially with him throwing his cutter more which has a weak 16.4% K rate but a hard hit rate of just 27.5%, a really good percentage for a type of fastball pitch. As a whole he is 92nd percentile in hard hit % this year. He has done a really good job lately of avoiding the home run ball. 8 homers given up in his first 24 innings compared to just 3 in the last 45.3 with 2 of those 3 coming at Coors.

 

Yup. The idea that Lauer was sort of a lefty Davies, but younger & with more team control is starting to manifest this year.

 

Davies w/MIL | 91 ERA- | 99 FIP- | 105 xFIP-

Lauer 2021 | 84 ERA- | 106 FIP- | 101 xFIP-

[markedman5]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Oh, but we were told repeatedly that the Padres took the Brewers to the cleaners on this deal.

 

This was never a deal that was going to be able to be judged off of immediate returns.

[sveumrules]

 

Oh, but we were told repeatedly that the Padres took the Brewers to the cleaners on this deal.

 

This was never a deal that was going to be able to be judged off of immediate returns.

 

Padres got a nice 60 game head start for sure, but Trent Grisham has posted 2.9 WAR so far this year per Baseball Reference while Urias/Lauer have posted 3.1 WAR so far this year per Baseball Reference.

 

Reports of Lauer (86 ERA- | 101 FIP- | 102 xFIP- so far in 2021) possibly being able to replicate Davies production (91 ERA- | 99 FIP- | 105 xFIP- w/ Milwaukee) while being cheaper, younger & left handed appear to be coming to fruition this year as well.