Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[MNBrew]

PTBNL or cash.... Everything Haudricourt responds to suggests (however indirectly) they could well end up taking the cash option. It makes me wonder if the terms were along the lines of "we'll take the cash unless you offer a player we'd actually want."

 

I'd prefer the player, but I'd doubt it's anyone of great impact -- low-level lottery at best. If that's the case, cash to use toward something else may not be the worst option.

[trwi7]

PTBNL or cash.... Everything Haudricourt responds to suggests (however indirectly) they could well end up taking the cash option. It makes me wonder if the terms were along the lines of "we'll take the cash unless you offer a player we'd actually want."

 

I'd prefer the player, but I'd doubt it's anyone of great impact -- low-level lottery at best. If that's the case, cash to use toward something else may not be the worst option.

 

The amount of cash they would likely get would likely make it not worth it and you'd be better off taking a chance at the lottery ticket.

[Eye Black]

PTBNL or cash.... Everything Haudricourt responds to suggests (however indirectly) they could well end up taking the cash option. It makes me wonder if the terms were along the lines of "we'll take the cash unless you offer a player we'd actually want."

 

I'd prefer the player, but I'd doubt it's anyone of great impact -- low-level lottery at best. If that's the case, cash to use toward something else may not be the worst option.

 

The amount of cash they would likely get would likely make it not worth it and you'd be better off taking a chance at the lottery ticket.

He’s a little older (just turned 26), but Wisconsin native Elliot Ashbeck is an interesting reliever that isn’t currently on the Padres 40-man roster.

[clancyphile]

PTBNL or cash.... Everything Haudricourt responds to suggests (however indirectly) they could well end up taking the cash option. It makes me wonder if the terms were along the lines of "we'll take the cash unless you offer a player we'd actually want."

 

I'd prefer the player, but I'd doubt it's anyone of great impact -- low-level lottery at best. If that's the case, cash to use toward something else may not be the worst option.

 

The amount of cash they would likely get would likely make it not worth it and you'd be better off taking a chance at the lottery ticket.

 

Always take the prospect. You never know what might happen.

 

For instance, I'm intrigued by Dwayna Williams-Sutton (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=663492), who posted a .411 OBP last year.

 

Omar Cruz also looks like a good person to ask for (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=678316).

[MNBrew]

PTBNL or cash.... Everything Haudricourt responds to suggests (however indirectly) they could well end up taking the cash option. It makes me wonder if the terms were along the lines of "we'll take the cash unless you offer a player we'd actually want."

 

I'd prefer the player, but I'd doubt it's anyone of great impact -- low-level lottery at best. If that's the case, cash to use toward something else may not be the worst option.

 

The amount of cash they would likely get would likely make it not worth it and you'd be better off taking a chance at the lottery ticket.

All that's why I said I'd prefer getting the player. Brewers got 3 lottery tickets from Seattle for Adam Lind and there were many very doubtful that they might turn into anything nearly as worthwhile as they collectively have -- definitely a good, quiet, long-term deal. Mariners got a bat that should've been useful right away. Win-win.

 

I should've been clearer with my last sentence: I doubt the cash here would come anywhere close to getting you anything of consequence by itself. Rather, along with other money, it may help you get something else. So the cash wouldn't necessarily hurt, but a lottery ticket young guy could turn into something good all by himself.

[clancyphile]

All that's why I said I'd prefer getting the player. Brewers got 3 lottery tickets from Seattle for Adam Lind and there were many very doubtful that they might turn into anything nearly as worthwhile as they collectively have -- definitely a good, quiet, long-term deal. Mariners got a bat that should've been useful right away. Win-win.

 

I should've been clearer with my last sentence: I doubt the cash here would come anywhere close to getting you anything of consequence by itself. Rather, along with other money, it may help you get something else. So the cash wouldn't necessarily hurt, but a lottery ticket young guy could turn into something good all by himself.

 

Peralta has worked out very well.

 

Herrera may well prove useful, too. Didn't see a lot of action last year. Was he hurt?

[cesser000]

Herrera may well prove useful, too. Didn't see a lot of action last year. Was he hurt?

 

From the August 16, 2019 Minor League Transaction Thread:

 

"RHP Carlos Herrera, who turns 22 in October, has been placed on the 60-day IL, ending his season.

 

Herrera, acquired alongside Freddy Peralta in the Adam Lind deal with Seattle, will end up with only one appearance in 2019, a rough one-third of an inning appearance in this rehab game in Maryvale on July 8th.

 

No official word on the nature of his apparently pretty serious injury."

[liveforoctober]

I'd take Caleb Boushley from the Padres as a PTBNL. Wisconsin kid. High A all star last year. Has a little 'glue guy' to his personality, kind of like Suter, it seems:

Edited January 5, 2020 by liveforoctober

[SomewhereInTime]

When I think of PTBNL or cash, it's not really the super young lottery tickets we're talking about. It's more fringe roster filler. The level of player that's always available. The minor league phase rule 5 picks, independent league guys, international league guys, etc. Basically, there's a lot of avenues teams use to fill out the back ends of the minor league rosters and it probably doesn't matter whether the Brewers just take the cash or some roster filler.

[liveforoctober]

When I think of PTBNL or cash, it's not really the super young lottery tickets we're talking about. It's more fringe roster filler. The level of player that's always available. The minor league phase rule 5 picks, independent league guys, international league guys, etc. Basically, there's a lot of avenues teams use to fill out the back ends of the minor league rosters and it probably doesn't matter whether the Brewers just take the cash or some roster filler.

 

I think you always take the player in this case.

 

If we are talking PTBNL or cash in this instance and it is a fringe player then the amount of money you would be getting back is also likely negligible. If the Brewers want an extra $25k right now they just throw a 10% sale up on their webstore, advertise it and it is done.

 

In this case, if finding a guy who will contribute to the Major League roster isn't plausible ... then you find a guy who will aide one of your levels in a different way. As an example, if the Brewers are looking at the Low A Timber Rattlers roster and project they might be short 2B depth, instead of potentially moving one of your 3B/SS prospects over to play a different position for a half season (and not develop at the desired position) or bringing up your Rookie Ball 2B to play before he is ready ... you can grab an unspectacular 2B in this fashion that fills the need and allows your other guys to stick to their schedules, if that makes sense. The acquired 2B, as a PTBNL in this case, may never hit above .200 for the TRats and may be released mid season but, in this hypothetical, he has helped your organization by allowing other prospects to stay on schedule.

 

I understand you are saying if the Brewers need a 2B to play in Appleton they can just sign one .. but unless the Padres are offering you enough money to cover the cost of signing one of these guys (which I'm assuming they are not) then you take the player.

[MadThinker88]

When I think of PTBNL or cash, it's not really the super young lottery tickets we're talking about. It's more fringe roster filler. The level of player that's always available. The minor league phase rule 5 picks, independent league guys, international league guys, etc. Basically, there's a lot of avenues teams use to fill out the back ends of the minor league rosters and it probably doesn't matter whether the Brewers just take the cash or some roster filler.

 

I think you always take the player in this case.

 

If we are talking PTBNL or cash in this instance and it is a fringe player then the amount of money you would be getting back is also likely negligible. If the Brewers want an extra $25k right now they just throw a 10% sale up on their webstore, advertise it and it is done.

 

In this case, if finding a guy who will contribute to the Major League roster isn't plausible ... then you find a guy who will aide one of your levels in a different way. As an example, if the Brewers are looking at the Low A Timber Rattlers roster and project they might be short 2B depth, instead of potentially moving one of your 3B/SS prospects over to play a different position for a half season (and not develop at the desired position) or bringing up your Rookie Ball 2B to play before he is ready ... you can grab an unspectacular 2B in this fashion that fills the need and allows your other guys to stick to their schedules, if that makes sense. The acquired 2B, as a PTBNL in this case, may never hit above .200 for the TRats and may be released mid season but, in this hypothetical, he has helped your organization by allowing other prospects to stay on schedule.

 

I understand you are saying if the Brewers need a 2B to play in Appleton they can just sign one .. but unless the Padres are offering you enough money to cover the cost of signing one of these guys (which I'm assuming they are not) then you take the player.

 

Completely agree & I like the way you laid out the reasoning.

 

The sole caveat I would offer is if the 'cash' could be Int'l signing pool money. In that case you might grab the pool money as it could helping in signing multiple players or facilitate going over the normal pool amount & getting a real top flight signee or two.

[clancyphile]

When I think of PTBNL or cash, it's not really the super young lottery tickets we're talking about. It's more fringe roster filler. The level of player that's always available. The minor league phase rule 5 picks, independent league guys, international league guys, etc. Basically, there's a lot of avenues teams use to fill out the back ends of the minor league rosters and it probably doesn't matter whether the Brewers just take the cash or some roster filler.

 

In the CC Sabathia trade, Michael Brantley was the PTBNL sent to the Indians, and he was pretty consequential.

 

I never dismiss the chance to get talent. For a PTBNL, maybe it's finding someone who the team you've made a trade with has overlooked. If I ran a MLB team, I would view my farm system's managers and coaches as not only instructors for my players but as an auxiliary for the scouting department. Maybe they see something that can be tweaked in game conditions.

 

It's why I wish the Brewers could spend more money on the farm... I'd rather have two teams in the Arizona Rookie League, two R+ teams, a short-season A team, two full-season low-A teams, and two A+ teams signing a Gerritt Cole or a Anthony Rendon.

[liveforoctober]

When I think of PTBNL or cash, it's not really the super young lottery tickets we're talking about. It's more fringe roster filler. The level of player that's always available. The minor league phase rule 5 picks, independent league guys, international league guys, etc. Basically, there's a lot of avenues teams use to fill out the back ends of the minor league rosters and it probably doesn't matter whether the Brewers just take the cash or some roster filler.

 

In the CC Sabathia trade, Michael Brantley was the PTBNL sent to the Indians, and he was pretty consequential.

 

I think he was specifically referencing "PTBNL or Cash" type offers. When bigger prospects are being thrown around (in the Sabathia case it was either Green or Brantley as the PTBNL) cash usually isn't an option as far as I'm aware.

[clancyphile]

In the CC Sabathia trade, Michael Brantley was the PTBNL sent to the Indians, and he was pretty consequential.

 

I think he was specifically referencing "PTBNL or Cash" type offers. When bigger prospects are being thrown around (in the Sabathia case it was either Green or Brantley as the PTBNL) cash usually isn't an option as far as I'm aware.

 

I still take the PTBNL, though.

 

Two words: Manny Pina. Key contributor acquired as a PTBNL for K-Rod and looked like depth... until he wasn't.

 

You always have a chance of a diamond in the rough.

[liveforoctober]

In the CC Sabathia trade, Michael Brantley was the PTBNL sent to the Indians, and he was pretty consequential.

 

I think he was specifically referencing "PTBNL or Cash" type offers. When bigger prospects are being thrown around (in the Sabathia case it was either Green or Brantley as the PTBNL) cash usually isn't an option as far as I'm aware.

 

I still take the PTBNL, though.

 

Two words: Manny Pina. Key contributor acquired as a PTBNL for K-Rod and looked like depth... until he wasn't.

 

You always have a chance of a diamond in the rough.

 

I agree with you on taking the player, but you are still using improper examples. Manny Pina had major league experience as the PTBNL in that deal. The type of players that are offered along with a cash option, in these cases, are not on that level. The type of trade the above poster was referencing would not have Brantley or Pina in the conversation as options... otherwise taking the player is obvious.

[MadScientist]

I think he was specifically referencing "PTBNL or Cash" type offers. When bigger prospects are being thrown around (in the Sabathia case it was either Green or Brantley as the PTBNL) cash usually isn't an option as far as I'm aware.

 

I still take the PTBNL, though.

 

Two words: Manny Pina. Key contributor acquired as a PTBNL for K-Rod and looked like depth... until he wasn't.

 

You always have a chance of a diamond in the rough.

 

I agree with you on taking the player, but you are still using improper examples. Manny Pina had major league experience as the PTBNL in that deal. The type of players that are offered along with a cash option, in these cases, are not on that level. The type of trade the above poster was referencing would not have Brantley or Pina in the conversation as options... otherwise taking the player is obvious.

 

I think Yeison Coca was the PTBNL in the Thornburg deal that was announced as PTBNL or cash. That might be the type of player they are looking at. Not much so far, but still more potential than the pittance of the cash option.

[SomewhereInTime]

To be clear, I'm only talking about PTBNL or cash scenarios, not all PTBNL scenarios. I'm just saying that these are generally very low level minor leaguers. Literally just roster filler, every organization needs some of these guys and if the Brewers see one they want, a deal is usually just worked out for future considerations.

 

Basically, there's never really anything that the Brewers have to give up for guys like this, they're always available, if they take the cash here and go sign another guy out of independent ball there's no real difference.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, this is a tad alarming:

 

 

I mean, there is a chance that it is nothing ... but with this team, is that ever the outcome?

[TURBO]

uh oh...

[markedman5]

[CheezWizHed]

 

Translation: PTBNL = Cash.

[KeithStone53151]

This trade is starting to look less bad by the day. Lauer rocking a 3.5 ERA this season, notably pitching much better of late. Urias slashing 233/332/409 while also being better of late and playing multiple positions. Grisham slashing 253/339/443 this year while playing a solid CF. Davies was good for one year in SD and was a small part of the Darvish trade, but is now rocking close to a 5 ERA in his last year before FA. This initially looked like a pretty bad trade by the Brewers but is starting to look closer and closer to a push. And the Brewers can easily win this trade if lauer solidifies as a mid rotation starter with 4 more years of team control

[markedman5]

and Davies is making 8.6 Million this year.........Lauer....562K.

[Jopal78]

This trade is starting to look less bad by the day. Lauer rocking a 3.5 ERA this season, notably pitching much better of late. Urias slashing 233/332/409 while also being better of late and playing multiple positions. Grisham slashing 253/339/443 this year while playing a solid CF. Davies was good for one year in SD and was a small part of the Darvish trade, but is now rocking close to a 5 ERA in his last year before FA. This initially looked like a pretty bad trade by the Brewers but is starting to look closer and closer to a push. And the Brewers can easily win this trade if lauer solidifies as a mid rotation starter with 4 more years of team control

 

It certainly looks better than it did a year ago at this time. As is typical with these trades there's a lot of other moving parts influenced by it as referenced by the Padres moving Davies to Chicago as part of the deal for Yu Darvish. Likewise, if the Brewers still had Grisham they probably wouldn't have guaranteed JBJ 24 million dollars across two years and could have signed someone else instead. Moreover, with Wong and Adames on the roster for multiple seasons, Urias won't be playing his natural middle infield positions for the Brewers, and at 3B his bat is merely ordinary. Whereas a gold glove CFer with a .782 OPS like Grisham will start every day for a decade in the major leagues.

 

To your original point, I don't think it's a disaster anymore and if the Lauer of 2021 is a real deal it is probably a push at best all things considered.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This trade is starting to look less bad by the day. Lauer rocking a 3.5 ERA this season, notably pitching much better of late. Urias slashing 233/332/409 while also being better of late and playing multiple positions. Grisham slashing 253/339/443 this year while playing a solid CF. Davies was good for one year in SD and was a small part of the Darvish trade, but is now rocking close to a 5 ERA in his last year before FA. This initially looked like a pretty bad trade by the Brewers but is starting to look closer and closer to a push. And the Brewers can easily win this trade if lauer solidifies as a mid rotation starter with 4 more years of team control

 

It certainly looks better than it did a year ago at this time. As is typical with these trades there's a lot of other moving parts influenced by it as referenced by the Padres moving Davies to Chicago as part of the deal for Yu Darvish. Likewise, if the Brewers still had Grisham they probably wouldn't have guaranteed JBJ 24 million dollars across two years and could have signed someone else instead. Moreover, with Wong and Adames on the roster for multiple seasons, Urias won't be playing his natural middle infield positions for the Brewers, and at 3B his bat is merely ordinary. Whereas a gold glove CFer with a .782 OPS like Grisham will start every day for a decade in the major leagues.

 

To your original point, I don't think it's a disaster anymore and if the Lauer of 2021 is a real deal it is probably a push at best all things considered.

 

The other moving parts to this trade not being mentioned is the fact it was made before COVID hit in late 2019 and with the Brewers assuming they were going to have Cain playing center field through the 2022 season and MVP-caliber Yelich at the other corner OF spot for even longer. Grisham was just coming off booting a ball in the wild card game as well. If the Brewers had interest in Avi Garcia as a free agent that same offseason, which is proving to be a good idea based on how he's performing this season, Grisham would've been hard-pressed for consistent playing time the way things looked at that time. Urias was in the same boat in San Diego in terms of being a good prospect with limited MLB experience being largely blocked by other players at his primary positions.

 

This was a very good trade for both teams - back when it was made and even moreso right now...doesn't have to be a clear winner or loser in my book. The fact they exchanged Davies for Lauer at this point looks like a win for the Brewers in terms of both payroll flexibility and years of team control for a decent MLB starter, as the biggest reason Darvish was shipped to San Diego was to get his salary off the Cubs' books longterm IMO.