Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[Roderick]

I hope it a player to be named later not Cash.

 

I hope it is a player named Cash.

 

I went to search mlb.com for players named Cash, and what showed up was Manny Machado.

[NYChez]

Is Segura a decent comparison for Urias?

[brewcrewdue80]

My phone has a News page to flip to. In my most recent check of the news was a video by a guy who seemed like a Padres fan reviewing recent moves in MLB. He talked how Urias was a top ep prospect, #1 in 2018 for 2b apparently over Hiura. And then that his defense is good enough for SS or via what he read on him. So I'll just plug him in to SS and wait to find out. The takes here seemed to favor he was a 2b first SS in a pinch.

[CheezWizHed]

On Urias' milb.com page, there were a few articles about his defense (including comments from him stating that the was working on his SS defense), so I'd assume its more of a known issue. Maybe its MLB passible, but not what Arcia is capable of doing.

 

His 2018 MLB prospect ranking seems to sum it well:

Urias proved plenty capable at shortstop in 2017, first in Double-A and then in the Arizona Fall League, and should continue to see some time there moving forward. His ultimate defensive home, however, is likely second base, where he profiles as an above-average defender with good range and arm strength. Overall, Urias has the ingredients to hit atop a lineup while manning a middle-infield position for a long, long time.

So odd thought... if we were going for Lindor, what if Huira was the bait and Urias is slated for 2B?

[monty57]

Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries.

 

Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind.

 

I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.

 

That depends on whether you are looking at a player's value based on what he will do on the field, or his value on an open market.

 

In the stock market, with millions of buyers and sellers, there are always companies trading for less than the company is probably worth based on valuations. These can be summed up with the generic term "Market inefficiencies." There are lots of reasons for this, and long-term investors (like Warren Buffet) have made a fortune looking for these deals.

 

In baseball, there is only a market of 30 teams, so there are going to be a lot of inefficiencies as GM's put more emphasis on certain types of players over others, or simply because there is a greater demand for or supply of certain types of players at a given time. Like the stock market, there will be bids for every ask. If everyone wants that player (high demand), the bids go up, and the "market value" of the player will go up, even though he's the same player, so his "actual value" (how good he is, along with his contract) remains the same. With a limited amount of capital, as well as a limited amount of roster space, when the price of some players goes up, there are usually players who end up with a lower value than they "should." In my humble opinion, this was the underlying theme of Moneyball... rate players and look for market inefficiencies to find players trading for under what you think they are worth.

 

Urias will not be a better or worse player based on what he's traded for, but this trade shows that his "market value" is probably less than previously thought. As Brewer fans, we have to hope that his real value continues to rise.

[SRB]

That's just objectively not how MLB trades work though. Teams work out trades without soliciting offers from other teams all the time (for example, perhaps San Diego's scouts just love Grisham and were willing to pay almost any cost).

 

Obviously we all know that prospect rankings from sources like Baseball America are wildly speculative and not scientific, but if you are basing projected "value" (i.e. a $/WAR figure for projected WAR) on rankings ostensibly based on what BA scouts and BA sources think of a player's skills and potential in a vacuum, that should not change based on a trade that seems unbalanced.

 

I never reevaluated my opinion of Eric Hosmer after the market said he was worth nine figures.

 

I will grant you that this trade is one additional data point that at least one GM thinks the "value" of Urias/Lauer is closer to Grisham/Davies than the prior consensus (though even that is not absolutely certain), but should that alter our expectations/projections so dramatically? If so then I question the value of even pretending to rank prospects, which is a bit depressing for us armchair GMs online because the logical endpoint is that every single transaction is more or less a win-win swap between equally rational (and equally competent) front offices

[markedman5]

Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/29/brewers-get-edge-over-padres-in-rare-challenge-trade/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Eye Black]

Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/29/brewers-get-edge-over-padres-in-rare-challenge-trade/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Well it was written by a former member of the Brewers’ front office.

 

Thanks for sharing.

[Eye Black]

Looking back at this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook (published last February) they had Urías as the #3 overall prospect in the Padres system (a farm system they had ranked as #1 in baseball). They had him ranked as the second best 2B prospect in baseball behind only Keston Hiura. Below is their scouting report for Urías.

 

TRACK RECORD: The Padres purchased Urías’ rights from Mexico City for $100,000 when he was 16 in a deal facilitated by club owner Alfredo Harp Helu, a minority stakeholder in the Padres. Urías wasted no time validating the deal. He won the California League batting title and MVP award as a 19 year old, represented Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and led the Texas League in on-base percentage in his age-20 season. Last year Urías hit a team-best .298 at Triple-A El Paso, started the Futures Game, and made his major league debut at 21.

 

SCOUTING REPORT: Urías has the gifts of a potential .300 hitter. Short but mighty, the 5-foot-9 Urías takes advantage of his compact strike zone with a quick, level swing that produces hard line drives to all fields. He has an elite eye and rarely chases, forcing pitchers to come to him and punishing hittable pitches when they do. Urías’ build and swing aren’t conducive to home runs, but with his quick bat he can square up a fastball and drive it out when he finds a ball where he wants it. Defensively, Urías is an above-average second baseman with sure hands, clean footwork and an impressive vertical leap to go with an above-average arm. He can fill in as an average shortstop, although his range there is stretched.

 

THE FUTURE: Urías’ pure stroke and elite eye give him a chance to contend for batting titles at his peak.

[Jenkins5]

Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/29/brewers-get-edge-over-padres-in-rare-challenge-trade/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

What fantastic read! Thank you for sharing! That is probably the best analysis I have read on trade. He will be someone I look for more often to read.

[Lathund]

Reading about this trade, I haven't really seen any neutral parties say anything other than that the Brewers look to have gotten the better of this deal initially. Usually with the (rightful) caveat that it's too early to tell, that Urias might not be an ideal fit at SS etc. Padres' fans aren't too happy about it either in general. But fans tend to try and rationalise moves by their team, and the ones doing it for the Padres are really going all out for it. It's kind of amusing (Even though I suspect it's not all taken out of thin air; they did watch Urias and Lauer this past year) how there are some people who seem to refuse to acknowledge the possibility that the front office that gave Eric Hosmer $144m might be capable of misjudging things...

 

Speaking of which, were there even any other real suitors (Publicly known anyway), or did they give him $144m while bidding against themselves? I seem to recall the Padres being the one team talked about in relation to Hosmer almost from the start. And in the past few years, is the Hosmer contract the clearest example of a deal *everyone* (Except the Padres FO) could see was bad? And I don't just mean deals where you expect the last few years to be bad, but where you'd expect a few good years before that. But where you give $144m to a player who put up ~10 fWAR in almost 7 full seasons. Someone at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum to boot. Hats off to Scott Boras for that one tbh.

[MrTPlush]

Wasn’t the original plan was to have Hosmer as a veteran guy during a rebuild...as some type of leader. Thus the money wasn’t really a big deal to them.

[adambr2]

Wasn’t the original plan was to have Hosmer as a veteran guy during a rebuild...as some type of leader. Thus the money wasn’t really a big deal to them.

 

If that is really all they wanted out of Hosmer their GM should be fired on the spot. If you're going to dish out 144 million dollars you better be planning on getting some production to go along with that veteran leadership. You don't spend 144 million dollars for veteran leadership. That's what $2.5M dollar contracts to guys like Stephen Vogt are for.

[SRB]

I'd give $144 million to bring Mike Cameron back and just have him hang around the dugout, to be fair.

[clancyphile]

Any guesses on the PTBNL?

 

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

 

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...

 

 

1B/3B Jason Vosler

 

2B Esteury Ruiz

 

OF Buddy Reed

 

OF Michael Gettys

 

RHP Lake Bachar - Former UW-Whitewater pitcher

 

RHRP Dauris Valdez

 

RHRP Evan Miller

 

RHRP Trevor Megill

 

 

Any other interesting Padres names eligible for the Rule 5? Not that this deal needs to get much better, but I am curious to see how the PTBNL plays out (assuming it doesn’t end up being cash).

 

Vosler is very intriguing as a left-handed bat with good OBP skills, and some serious pop. I think he could sneak his way on as a productive member of the MLB team.

 

Gettys has a powerful RH bat, but iffy OBP skills.

 

Reed and Ruiz are interesting... anyone know if they are eligible for the minor-league portion of the Rule 5? Ruiz would be someone I'd take for that in a heartbeat. Reed's also interesting, and his OBP has taken a step up.

[xisxisxis]

It's kind of amusing (Even though I suspect it's not all taken out of thin air; they did watch Urias and Lauer this past year) how there are some people who seem to refuse to acknowledge the possibility that the front office that gave Eric Hosmer $144m might be capable of misjudging things...

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019 and I still think he's very good, but he has and will continue to make mistakes. I'm no Preller fan, but the Padres have one of the top rated farm sytems because they were able to identify good prospects when they sold off any asset during their rebuild. Sure the Hosmer contract will go down as a really bad deal, but sometimes when you have money to spend and there isn't much left to buy a GM will waste the money. Heck, was anyone going past 7 years for Bryce Harper? The Phillies believed they had to go to 10 even though the market was terrible. Money to burn sometimes leads to money wasted. It will be very interesting to see how Stearns uses the $40M saved so far in a free agent market that is pretty much crap (I don't recall as bad a free agent crop in a long time). In fact, Thames is one of the best low-cost assets in FA and we just released him for nothing.

[PeaveyFury]

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019

 

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

[mtrebs]

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019

 

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

 

Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.

[adambr2]

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019

 

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

 

Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.

 

The ultimate goal is obviously always to win a WS. No one goes into a season saying "I hope we can be competitive this year." That said, win a WS seems like a pretty unfair bar to measure GM success or lack of success unless we're going to say that there is 1 successful GM and 29 unsuccessful GMs every season.

 

I think all you can do each season is put yourself in a position to be competitive and then see what happens from there.

[mtrebs]

Where the Brewers were at after the 2018 season, I’m still under the mindset that 2019 was the year they should have made the big push by acquiring necessary starting pitching. Stearns went a different approach that I didn’t agree with and it failed, even though they got to the postseason. Because of that I don’t consider Stearns’ 2019 a success.

 

Edit: We’re getting off topic here so I’ll stop with this now.

[PeaveyFury]

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019

 

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

 

Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.

 

Are we blaming a GM for a “bunch of unfortunate injuries” now?

[KeithStone53151]

Thanks John. I appreciate the insights into your thought process as well.

 

+1, I really enjoyed your insights into evaluation. I'll add this entire thread has been a very enjoyable and good discussion.

[mtrebs]

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

 

Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.

 

Are we blaming a GM for a “bunch of unfortunate injuries” now?

 

No, I didn’t mean that. I mentioned that because it played a large part towards how the year ended up as well. The team Stearns put together was good, good enough to overcome those injuries and still make the postseason, but not quite good enough in the end. With a more solidified pitching staff, the Brewers likely would have won a few more games, theoretically enough to win the division, and they could have been in a better position in the postseason.

[Thurston Fluff]

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019

 

Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.

 

Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.

 

There are so many variables out of a GM's control that go into winning a World Series a more realistic goal (from a GM's perspective) is to field a team capable of winning a World Series every year. That gives us the best chance of eventually winning one. Given we made the playoffs and came an error away from beating the eventual WS champs I'd say he succeeded in his task.

[sveumrules]

David Laurila's Sunday Notes column leads off with Lauer this week...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-new-brewer-eric-lauer-is-a-cutter-y-craftsman-in-search-of-depth/

 

My guess is the Brewers have something in mind with his pitch mix they think can help unlock better results.