Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

[reillymcshane]

I appreciate the advice, but I respectfully disagree. Models are dynamic -- you can't ignore real data if you want to make them more accurate over time. We definitely stand by our methodology. As with my Zillow analogy, Zillow can't insist that a house is still worth $500K if it was sold for $250K. It will take that into account as new information, in order to make the model smarter. That's all we're doing.

 

The good news for Brewers fans is, you should still be happy you got a great deal.

BTW, love your site, John.

[RollieTime]

I appreciate the advice, but I respectfully disagree. Models are dynamic -- you can't ignore real data if you want to make them more accurate over time. We definitely stand by our methodology. As with my Zillow analogy, Zillow can't insist that a house is still worth $500K if it was sold for $250K. It will take that into account as new information, in order to make the model smarter. That's all we're doing.

 

The good news for Brewers fans is, you should still be happy you got a great deal.

 

What new "data" is there, other than they don't want to accept that one team fleeced another? If the model is adjusted to try and equalize any trade that goes through, I think that undercuts its value.

 

(Edit: though I apologize for the flippant tone, as I didn't realize the actual author would be reading the thread My ire isn't directed at your particular analysis, just the fact that nobody will seem to acknowledge that the Brewers just pulled over a massive swindle.)

 

I agree with all of this. Then someone like Brendan Rodgers (MLB #14 Prospect) should have a greatly reduced value since he did so poorly in his first 75 at bats or so. Not quite to the point of losing his prospect status, but definitely was overmatched and struggled. I just don’t think they lose their value that quickly based on such a small sample.

 

The Brewers absolutely fleeced the Padres with how the trade looks today. If Urias doesn’t become anything then yeah the Padres won the trade. But as it sits today, the Brewers easily got the better side of the deal and it’s not particularly close.

 

I have a sincere question for you on something that makes absolutely no sense to me. Hiura’s highest ranking on baseball prospectus was 6th in MLB. His current value on your website is 73.2. The number 7 prospect (RHP Casey Mize) is at 66.4. The number 6 prospect currently (C Adley Rutschman) has a value of 88.3. The number 5 prospect (OF Jo Adell) has a value of 96.4. All Hiura did was hit over .300 in his first half season at the MLB level while hitting 19 homers. If he was ranked 6th, how in the world did his value drop since all he did was come up and rake to the tune of being a borderline all-star? At the MLB level and not just in the minor leagues?! He’s still controlled for 6 years, proven to be an all-star talent at the highest level, and at a position with very few great hitters, and his value decreased?

 

Also, Carter Kieboom is the number 20th ranked prospect in baseball and he’s valued at 83.8. Obviously you have your own rankings for players, but some of these values don’t jive. Especially Hader having a value of 48.3. 4 years of control still at well below market rate for the back to back relief pitcher of the year? I know placing values on relievers is tough, but I don’t see any way his value isn’t at least in the 75-100 range. If he is traded, he’s bringing an absolute haul. And I am sure that a trade of him would have the values much in the Brewers’ favor based on his current value on the site.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

As with my Zillow analogy, Zillow can't insist that a house is still worth $500K if it was sold for $250K. It will take that into account as new information, in order to make the model smarter. That's all we're doing.

 

That simply can't happen without the seller being awfully dumb, doing someone a favor (like a relative), or there being something grossly wrong with the sold home. In the real estate example it would be the seller having no clue of the value of the home, selling well below market to a loved one, or the home being a complete rehab. The numbers that derive the Zillow estimates are based on matching nearby, recent, and comparable sales data. Applied to this trade, Preller either grossly miscalculated, has drastically different valuations of the players involved, is doing Stearns a solid, or Urias is damaged goods. Since Urias's health doesn't seem to be in question, and I doubt Preller loves Stearns like a family member, the variance seems to rest solely with Preller. And if that's the case, you're making adjustments under the presumption that GMs can't make mistakes. I understand the second look to account for the totality of the season's of all players involved, but it seems like y'all might have taken it too far simply because of the disbelief that a GM would get taken so bad. Does Preller warrant that benefit of the doubt? Bringing Urias and Grisham to within 5 points of each other (50 to 45) on the Fangraphs scale seems to be too much of an adjustment. Do that too much or too often, and every post trade valuation will look reactionary. And it would also lessen the strength of your player valuations prior to a trade resetting them.

 

I guess the way to look less reactionary would be to constantly update player valuations but I'm sure that's a daunting task.

 

I do love the site, btw! I just hope the original lopsided valuations prove true. If that happens it will be a shame that the adjustments were made.

[torts]

Moving Grisham allows the Brewers to lock Braun up with a new extension into his 40’s. Exciting! #RyanBraunForever

 

#ryanbraunforver !!!!!!!!!

[brewcrewdue80]

Looking at Fangraphs and pitch types, I feel the Brewers traded a RH Davies for a LH version of Davies with 1MPH increase in velocity. Currently Lauer throws a 3 pitch mix FB, CT, CB and rare Change up. Davies went from that mix with a slider prior to 2019 and then threw 84% FB/CH last season. Lauer was close to 150IP last year in less appearances than Davies who had just shy of 160. Fangraphs oddly had Lauer being worth more last season than Davies like 16 to 12mil. And Steamer has Davies being worse next season while Lauer improves just a little.

 

In Urias it's gotta be all about the On Base pct over Arcia. Higher last season than Arcia's and over 50pts higher in a near equal amount around 2400 career PA in the minors.

 

I think the team for 2020 is quite a bit better after this trade than the 2019 production. A Left Handed Starting Pitcher done set for at least 3-4seasons? Superb.

[Eye Black]

Here is sort of a fun highlight because it incorporates both Urías hitting a 98.6-mph Ray Black fastball to the gap and because Grisham holds him to a single on a nice play to cut it off: Luis Urias singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham.

 

As a reminder you can use Statcast to watch every pitch an MLB player faces, for instance here is the 2019 Luis Urías Statcast search results. Click on his name at the bottom of the page to expand the search results table. Video links of each pitch faced are on the right side of the expanded table.

[Outlander]

Does Lauer have four or five years of control? I've heard conflicting reports

 

According to Baseball Reference, Lauer isn't arbitration eligible until the 2021 season & free agency for the 2025 season.

That would be 5 years of control

That would be 6 years of control, he hasn't reached a full year yet. Of course that can all change with a new labor agreement.

[TURBO]

 

I think the team for 2020 is quite a bit better after this trade than the 2019 production. A Left Handed Starting Pitcher done set for at least 3-4seasons? Superb.

 

Wait, you think the current 2020 team is already better than the 2019 team?

 

We lost Grandal, and probably Moose, and you think the way the team sits right now, on November 28th, with no 1B, 3B, and a major hit to the catcher position, is better?

 

ummm k.

[Lathund]

Does Lauer have four or five years of control? I've heard conflicting reports

 

According to Baseball Reference, Lauer isn't arbitration eligible until the 2021 season & free agency for the 2025 season.

That would be 5 years of control

That would be 6 years of control, he hasn't reached a full year yet. Of course that can all change with a new labor agreement.

 

Lauer is just shy of 2 years of service time (1.160). So in 2020 he'll be pre-arbitration, and as a very likely Super 2 player he'll be arbitration eligible for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. Or in other words 5 years of team control remaining.

[MadThinker88]

According to Baseball Reference, Lauer isn't arbitration eligible until the 2021 season & free agency for the 2025 season.

That would be 5 years of control

That would be 6 years of control, he hasn't reached a full year yet. Of course that can all change with a new labor agreement.

 

Lauer is just shy of 2 years of service time (1.160). So in 2020 he'll be pre-arbitration, and as a very likely Super 2 player he'll be arbitration eligible for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. Or in other words 5 years of team control remaining.

 

Lathund is correct. And would be 5 years of control remaining - 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 & 2024.

[johnbitzer]

No worries, sorry to barge in on the discussion. I was invited in some months ago, and thought I'd pop in to see the reaction to the trade.

 

The new data is the trade itself. We totally agree there's a value gap, it's just a matter of degrees. We change numbers all the time based on the data inputs we get from prospect ratings outlets, performances, projection systems, and most importantly, what we see in the marketplace. The constant is not the numbers themselves, but the process of using as much significant data as possible to get as accurate as possible.

[PeaveyFury]

No worries, sorry to barge in on the discussion. I was invited in some months ago, and thought I'd pop in to see the reaction to the trade.

 

The new data is the trade itself. We totally agree there's a value gap, it's just a matter of degrees. We change numbers all the time based on the data inputs we get from prospect ratings outlets, performances, projection systems, and most importantly, what we see in the marketplace. The constant is not the numbers themselves, but the process of using as much significant data as possible to get as accurate as possible.

 

I think what people are taking issue with, John, is the idea that everyone's values on the players involved MUST have been wrong, because the trade was made. I think it's possible that one of the teams simply made a really bad trade, which shouldn't change the relevant data after the fact. Your analysis doesn't account for the possibility that some GM's are actually bad at their jobs.

[johnbitzer]

So here's how we handle tweeners (what we call guys who are not quite established yet in the majors, but graduated from the minors): we do a pro-ration method where we take the major-league projection (which is based on their major league performance) and weight that against their prospect value, up to three years. So a guy whose prospect value is, say, 60, who then has a bad first year which projects him for, say, 30, will have a value of 50 ((60*2)+(30*1))/3. If the same pattern holds another year, the weighting will shift more to the majors' value ((60*1)+(30*2)/3 = 40. After three years, he's a fully established major-leaguer.

 

However, we've found that it's not quite that simple. There are many cases where the market showed us that the value had changed more than that would suggest. For example, Jharel Cotton was a 55 who was just DFA'd by the A's, then sold for only $100K to the Cubs. His meager MLB performance dragged his value down, but not as much as that would suggest. What made the number line up was a change to the prospect rating -- we had to infer that he wouldn't be a 55 anymore if he were still being rated by the evaluators. There are other examples of this as well, where former top prospects fall out of favor faster than you'd think. (Injuries can play a role in this as well.)

 

Trouble is, that puts us in a precarious position, because we're not talent scouts. But we can do some basic algebra and solve for x, so that's what we do. x in these cases is the adjustment to the prospect rating.

 

So on the one hand, we agree that tweeners like this shouldn't be adjusted up or down too much, because in most cases their ratings are fine. But there are enough other cases where they're not fine that we have to treat them as those types of exceptions.

 

As to your other questions about those prospects, we use a weighted average of the big ratings systems. We place a higher weighting on Baseball America, because they're the most respected and established, their system is thorough, they have strong relationships with front offices, and weighting them higher correlates well with our findings. So those variations are due to those weightings. (We place very little weight on BP's prospect ratings.)

 

As for Hader, you'll no doubt be aware that he was recently identified as a Super 2. That means he's about to be paid a lot more, since he has four arb years, and not three. And the salary he gets in his Arb 1 year will set the floor for the next three, which will compound. In other words, his surplus value took a big hit because of that. He's still quite valuable, but there's less now as a result of that.

[johnbitzer]

Thanks for that feedback. However, our analysis does account for bad trades. We fully agree it was a bad trade on Preller's part. He's in win-now mode, and under pressure from his owner to deliver a winning team in 2020, so he's going to overpay. And he's obviously done that before. And we also know that Stearns is very savvy, so he's going to take advantage of that situation.

 

That said, we respect the market enough not to ignore what it's telling us. We think it's highly unlikely the Brewers were the only team Preller talked to about Urias. There are several other teams who could use a 2B or SS with upside for league minimum. The A's, Reds, and Phillies come to mind. (I'm an A's fan, and I'm sure the A's could have offered a similar package to SD at the Grisham price point that would have enticed SD.) We're not naive enough to think this is the only offer they got. Rather, the more likely scenario is that this is the best offer they got. It's still a bad deal for SD, and we account for that because there's still a big gap in the numbers. Heck, Lauer for Davies alone is a bad deal. And then we also find out that there's one more element to it -- a PTBNL -- which makes it even worse for SD.

 

So yeah, we still think you guys got a great deal.

[johnbitzer]

Thanks for the feedback. Please see my other responses on this thread.

 

I will add: if this were an isolated case, we would make no adjustments, as we would see it as an outlier. But as I mentioned, there are other cases like this, where prospects have fallen in value not just with one team, but with the market, which suggests that you can't just pin it all on Preller being taken to the cleaners. He did get taken, no question. But it's probably not quite as much as it first looked.

[PeaveyFury]

Thanks John. I appreciate the insights into your thought process as well.

[RollieTime]

So here's how we handle tweeners (what we call guys who are not quite established yet in the majors, but graduated from the minors): we do a pro-ration method where we take the major-league projection (which is based on their major league performance) and weight that against their prospect value, up to three years. So a guy whose prospect value is, say, 60, who then has a bad first year which projects him for, say, 30, will have a value of 50 ((60*2)+(30*1))/3. If the same pattern holds another year, the weighting will shift more to the majors' value ((60*1)+(30*2)/3 = 40. After three years, he's a fully established major-leaguer.

 

However, we've found that it's not quite that simple. There are many cases where the market showed us that the value had changed more than that would suggest. For example, Jharel Cotton was a 55 who was just DFA'd by the A's, then sold for only $100K to the Cubs. His meager MLB performance dragged his value down, but not as much as that would suggest. What made the number line up was a change to the prospect rating -- we had to infer that he wouldn't be a 55 anymore if he were still being rated by the evaluators. There are other examples of this as well, where former top prospects fall out of favor faster than you'd think. (Injuries can play a role in this as well.)

 

Trouble is, that puts us in a precarious position, because we're not talent scouts. But we can do some basic algebra and solve for x, so that's what we do. x in these cases is the adjustment to the prospect rating.

 

So on the one hand, we agree that tweeners like this shouldn't be adjusted up or down too much, because in most cases their ratings are fine. But there are enough other cases where they're not fine that we have to treat them as those types of exceptions.

 

As to your other questions about those prospects, we use a weighted average of the big ratings systems. We place a higher weighting on Baseball America, because they're the most respected and established, their system is thorough, they have strong relationships with front offices, and weighting them higher correlates well with our findings. So those variations are due to those weightings. (We place very little weight on BP's prospect ratings.)

 

As for Hader, you'll no doubt be aware that he was recently identified as a Super 2. That means he's about to be paid a lot more, since he has four arb years, and not three. And the salary he gets in his Arb 1 year will set the floor for the next three, which will compound. In other words, his surplus value took a big hit because of that. He's still quite valuable, but there's less now as a result of that.

 

Thank you for the response. I do think that elite relievers do fetch more than their value is listed for just because teams know how important it is having a multi inning pen arm that will shut down the other team, especially in the postseason. Hader is in a one of a kind situation with the amount of control, below market value salary, strikeout prowess, and multi inning ability that he brings to the table (if they were to entertain a trade).

[SRB]

Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries.

 

Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind.

 

I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.

[Eye Black]

If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.

I’m still bummed they hired Dave Cameron and took him out of the public sphere.

[Brewcrewin07]

Though this trade is an upgrade for the Brewers(and yes it's still early), this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two(I still love the Castellanos idea above and also one I had expressed) and also still need a HUGE rotation upgrade. For now, I'm pleased but still don't like the lineup...yet. Let's see what the rest of the off season brings

 

Can you ever stop ********? Look Stearns made a move. It improves the team going forward. But here you are shutting it down Nov 27th because it doesnt fill your top priority. Every single offseason for 3?years now Stearns cant live up to your Madden NFL Trade Skills. How did Darvish do? Arrieta? Who else? Your complaints like 3dozen others to have made the comment, Replacing Grandal, improve Starting Pitching, Find a 1b better than any that exists currently. Is Noted. For the thousandth time. Your speaking to a large crowd here that knows not only Baseball but likely more about the Brewers' needs than you do. Just go Meh from here on out when every move you have problem with Because it isnt your #1 priority. This addresses easily, what should be 2 of the top 5 in priorities. I dont think Arcia is #1 at SS now after this. He's the hybrid 2b/SS even 3b backup now. Lauer gives the Brewers a LH SP that has been missing and lamented for numerous times now. Basically swapped 1st rd picks and somehow got a promising SS for a #4 type of starter at best.

 

What the hell is your problem?? what in my post was saying I didn't like the trade?? I also said it's early yet and let's see what the rest of the off season brings. If you don't think they don't need an equivalent or better upgrade to Grandal's bat, or a top of the rotation arm, then you obviously DON'T know baseball or what the brewers needs are. There is still time to get those things. I said that. That being said, I do believe in some aspects in a market like Milwaukee, if you have free agent pursuits, your BEST avenue to get who you want is to bid early, stay aggressive with that player(players), DON'T go cheap and hope that said player(s) is willing to take your early offer for fear of getting less if he waits or not as much security. To me, the longer you wait, the MORE chance there is, it becomes a bidding war, which you simply won't win. It's the old, early bird gets the worm theory. You may not need to utilize this strategy if you aren't pursuing big time guys, but IF(and we have no way of knowing) you are pursuing a Rendon or Cole, or Wheeler, that everyone else is waiting out..get in early and hope it works.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

I think the team for 2020 is quite a bit better after this trade than the 2019 production. A Left Handed Starting Pitcher done set for at least 3-4seasons? Superb.

 

Wait, you think the current 2020 team is already better than the 2019 team?

 

We lost Grandal, and probably Moose, and you think the way the team sits right now, on November 28th, with no 1B, 3B, and a major hit to the catcher position, is better?

 

ummm k.

 

Yes in terms of Davies and Grisham vs Urias and Lauer. You misunderstood the comment as the entire team's production vs just the 2v2.

[brewcrewdue80]

Though this trade is an upgrade for the Brewers(and yes it's still early), this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two(I still love the Castellanos idea above and also one I had expressed) and also still need a HUGE rotation upgrade. For now, I'm pleased but still don't like the lineup...yet. Let's see what the rest of the off season brings

 

Can you ever stop ********? Look Stearns made a move. It improves the team going forward. But here you are shutting it down Nov 27th because it doesnt fill your top priority. Every single offseason for 3?years now Stearns cant live up to your Madden NFL Trade Skills. How did Darvish do? Arrieta? Who else? Your complaints like 3dozen others to have made the comment, Replacing Grandal, improve Starting Pitching, Find a 1b better than any that exists currently. Is Noted. For the thousandth time. Your speaking to a large crowd here that knows not only Baseball but likely more about the Brewers' needs than you do. Just go Meh from here on out when every move you have problem with Because it isnt your #1 priority. This addresses easily, what should be 2 of the top 5 in priorities. I dont think Arcia is #1 at SS now after this. He's the hybrid 2b/SS even 3b backup now. Lauer gives the Brewers a LH SP that has been missing and lamented for numerous times now. Basically swapped 1st rd picks and somehow got a promising SS for a #4 type of starter at best.

 

What the hell is your problem??

I also said it's early yet and let's see what the rest of the off season brings. If you don't think they don't need an equivalent or better upgrade to Grandal's bat, or a top of the rotation arm, then you obviously DON'T know baseball or what the brewers needs are. There is still time to get those things. I said that. That being said, I do believe in some aspects in a market like Milwaukee, if you have free agent pursuits, your BEST avenue to get who you want is to bid early, stay aggressive with that player(players), DON'T go cheap and hope that said player(s) is willing to take your early offer for fear of getting less if he waits or not as much security. To me, the longer you wait, the MORE chance there is, it becomes a bidding war, which you simply won't win. It's the old, early bird gets the worm theory. You may not need to utilize this strategy if you aren't pursuing big time guys, but IF(and we have no way of knowing) you are pursuing a Rendon or Cole, or Wheeler, that everyone else is waiting out..get in early and hope it works.

 

I'll apologize slightly on that remark, you lead off so strongly with your comment, I skimmed the rest because. Here's this guy doing what he does. I guess what I read after didn't translate properly in my head.

 

"what in my post was saying I didn't like the trade?? "

this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two

 

You had full capitol letters (ie screaming!) NOTHING. Dem fightin words when I read it that way.

 

Also a poster mentioned the PTBNL being that the Padres select Zach Brown in the rule 5 and give him back to us if so. I feel like that would be breaking a rule. For a team to help another team that way. And another question, If the potential ptbnl is a rule 5 from the Padres, why would it have to wait through the rule 5 draft? Since Zach Brown is eligible, is Stearns no longer able to use him in a trade between now and the day of the rule 5 draft?

[StearnsFTW]

Any guesses on the PTBNL?

 

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

 

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...

 

 

1B/3B Jason Vosler

 

 

Vosler seems like the obvious choice out of these guys given his positional versatility between 1B/3B, the Brewers obvious need there, and his left-handedness at the plate. He's a little older (26) but that's why he's a throw-in not a centerpiece.

 

Eh. He's 26 as you said. Not much upside there. I'd swing for the fences.

[Lathund]

And another question, If the potential ptbnl is a rule 5 from the Padres, why would it have to wait through the rule 5 draft? Since Zach Brown is eligible, is Stearns no longer able to use him in a trade between now and the day of the rule 5 draft?

 

They could include a rule 5 eligible player in the trade right now if they wanted to. I think the issue is that the player would still be eligible for the rule 5 draft as a Brewer, and the Brewers would have to add him to the 40-man roster to prevent that. Which, considering what a scarce resource those spots are for a team that cycles through as many players as the Brewers, they might not want to do. And also don't want to risk losing him. So if he isn't selected in the rule 5 draft, the trade gets finished. If not, it'd be #2 on the PTBNL list (or cash).

 

That's assuming that rule 5 was the reason behind the PTBNL; It might very well not be.

[brewmann04]

I hope it a player to be named later not Cash.