Avisail Garcia

[Brewcrewin07]

Projections projections projections! I think this is what irritates me so much about every cheap signing the Brewers make. People will say well he

 

Avisail Garcia career: .273/.323/.428/.751, .322 wOBA, 103 wRC+ (park adjusted)

Mike Moustakas career: .252/.310/.441/.751, .321 wOBA, 99 wRC+ (park adjusted)

 

Avisail Garcia 2017-2019: .288/.337/.473/.810, .342 wOBA, 117 wRC+

Mike Moustakas 2017-2019: .259/.319/.498/.817, .340 wOBA, 110 wRC+

 

Garcia will turn 28 next season, Moustakas will turn 32

 

You and your facts!

 

Thanks for posting.

 

 

Nothing like cherry picking numbers YOU deem appropriate to justify every guy Stearns signs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

How is that cherry picking? Those are the stats of the two mentioned guys for their career and the last 3 years. That's not cherry picking at all.

[Brewcrewin07]

Stearns has some of the better players in the game on his roster. He also fills in holes on a budget and is damn good at doing it. Yet, here we are in every thread.

 

 

You just got to the heart of the problem. I don't know if you are a football fan or not, but this is VERY similar to what all teams try to do to win a Super Bowl. You have a cheap superstar(QB), in the Brewers case, Yelich.. EVERYONE knows the key to winning in football is having a cheap superstar QB under contract for 5 years and spend a crap ton of money around him while you can during that window to try wo win it all. YES the economics of the sports are different, but this should be the same way the Brewers operate, and all MLB teams. If you lose some money during those years, well you just do. But you HAVE to capitalize on the window while you have it.

[MrTPlush]

Garcia is a corner OFer and Moose is a 3B which is a substantial difference. Now I don’t think García is a lone move...as in I don’t think it simply shifts Braun to 1B. That makes it a bit complicated to figure the overall offense impact, but Moustakas offense is a bit more impressive considering the position he plays.

[pacopete4]

Stearns has some of the better players in the game on his roster. He also fills in holes on a budget and is damn good at doing it. Yet, here we are in every thread.

 

 

You just got to the heart of the problem. I don't know if you are a football fan or not, but this is VERY similar to what all teams try to do to win a Super Bowl. You have a cheap superstar(QB), in the Brewers case, Yelich.. EVERYONE knows the key to winning in football is having a cheap superstar QB under contract for 5 years and spend a crap ton of money around him while you can during that window to try wo win it all. YES the economics of the sports are different, but this should be the same way the Brewers operate, and all MLB teams. If you lose some money during those years, well you just do. But you HAVE to capitalize on the window while you have it.

 

I’d say they are capitalizing on the window by having back to back playoff appearances, but I’m sure you’ll just complain that they haven’t won a WS. They’re living within their budget and doing it very well. This offseason alone has been a great one in regards to getting younger and talented players at positions of need. The problem is that they just aren’t signing guys you like (due to name recognition or how much they cost) and so you will go down kicking and screaming the rest of the way and make every thread about you and how upset you are.

[Brewcrewin07]

How is that cherry picking? Those are the stats of the two mentioned guys for their career and the last 3 years. That's not cherry picking at all.

 

 

Because if I said Moose has more career runs scored, more career, HR's, 2B's and RBI's, I would get told those numbers don't matter. Remove the anlytical numbers from it, then how do they matchup??

[PeaveyFury]

How is that cherry picking? Those are the stats of the two mentioned guys for their career and the last 3 years. That's not cherry picking at all.

 

 

Because if I said Moose has more career runs scored, more career, HR's, 2B's and RBI's, I would get told those numbers don't matter. Remove the anlytical numbers from it, then how do they matchup??

 

Moose has played two more seasons than Garcia, so one would likely expect him to have higher career totals of counting stats like that.

[Brewcrewin07]

Stearns has some of the better players in the game on his roster. He also fills in holes on a budget and is damn good at doing it. Yet, here we are in every thread.

 

 

You just got to the heart of the problem. I don't know if you are a football fan or not, but this is VERY similar to what all teams try to do to win a Super Bowl. You have a cheap superstar(QB), in the Brewers case, Yelich.. EVERYONE knows the key to winning in football is having a cheap superstar QB under contract for 5 years and spend a crap ton of money around him while you can during that window to try wo win it all. YES the economics of the sports are different, but this should be the same way the Brewers operate, and all MLB teams. If you lose some money during those years, well you just do. But you HAVE to capitalize on the window while you have it.

 

I’d say they are capitalizing on the window by having back to back playoff appearances, but I’m sure you’ll just complain that they haven’t won a WS. They’re living within their budget and doing it very well. This offseason alone has been a great one in regards to getting younger and talented players at positions of need. The problem is that they just aren’t signing guys you like (due to name recognition or how much they cost) and so you will go down kicking and screaming the rest of the way and make every thread about you and how upset you are.

 

They have done very well, no doubt about it...but then the question is...if they are THIS good with the payroll they have had, how much better would they be if the payroll was raised to $150 million or so for a few years?? Makes you wonder doesn't it??

 

Are back to back playoff appearances the be all end all now?? Or is the idea to get to and win a world series?? Yes, the playoffs have been fun and great, but do you think a single player or member of the organization is satisfied with that when they look back on it?? If they say yes, they are in the wrong business. So if they aren't satisfied, why should fans be?? How about playoff appearances that don't take playing ungodly hot baseball the last month of seasons just to get there. How about basically being on cruise control by the all star break?? Teams have done that you know?? It's not unprecedented.

[DuWayne Steurer]

How is that cherry picking? Those are the stats of the two mentioned guys for their career and the last 3 years. That's not cherry picking at all.

 

 

Because if I said Moose has more career runs scored, more career, HR's, 2B's and RBI's, I would get told those numbers don't matter. Remove the anlytical numbers from it, then how do they matchup??

 

 

You want to compare guys by counting stats, and say that analytical rate stats is cherry picking? You're just arguing to argue now, right?

[liveforoctober]

Stearns has some of the better players in the game on his roster. He also fills in holes on a budget and is damn good at doing it. Yet, here we are in every thread.

 

 

You just got to the heart of the problem. I don't know if you are a football fan or not, but this is VERY similar to what all teams try to do to win a Super Bowl. You have a cheap superstar(QB), in the Brewers case, Yelich.. EVERYONE knows the key to winning in football is having a cheap superstar QB under contract for 5 years and spend a crap ton of money around him while you can during that window to try wo win it all. YES the economics of the sports are different, but this should be the same way the Brewers operate, and all MLB teams. If you lose some money during those years, well you just do. But you HAVE to capitalize on the window while you have it.

 

Here we go with another cross sport comparison. Someone in another thread was trying to compare having Yelich to the Bucks having Giannis. It isn't remotely the same.

 

A franchise QB affects every play. Yelich doesn't have that ability.

 

"Well, you just do." No, wrong. If the window is there you do it. But having an MVP in baseball doesn't create a window.

 

This has nothing to do with this year's team... but the philosophy, on its own, is wrong.

[pacopete4]

I’d say they are capitalizing on the window by having back to back playoff appearances, but I’m sure you’ll just complain that they haven’t won a WS. They’re living within their budget and doing it very well. This offseason alone has been a great one in regards to getting younger and talented players at positions of need. The problem is that they just aren’t signing guys you like (due to name recognition or how much they cost) and so you will go down kicking and screaming the rest of the way and make every thread about you and how upset you are.

 

They have done very well, no doubt about it...but then the question is...if they are THIS good with the payroll they have had, how much better would they be if the payroll was raised to $150 million or so for a few years?? Makes you wonder doesn't it??

 

Are back to back playoff appearances the be all end all now?? Or is the idea to get to and win a world series?? Yes, the playoffs have been fun and great, but do you think a single player or member of the organization is satisfied with that when they look back on it?? If they say yes, they are in the wrong business. So if they aren't satisfied, why should fans be?? How about playoff appearances that don't take playing ungodly hot baseball the last month of seasons just to get there. How about basically being on cruise control by the all star break?? Teams have done that you know?? It's not unprecedented.

 

Of course back to back appearances isn’t the end all but it’s better than just about any time in this franchises history but here we are with you. I mean they won 96 games two seasons ago in a very tough division but because they weren’t on cruise control, it wasn’t good enough.

 

It’s not going to be raised to that total for a budget right now so why make every thread about that? Why not discuss realistic players that the Brewers can do that can put them in another position to win a WS? There are plenty of combinations for a roster that can get it done. Why moan all the time when you deep down know that the Brewers budget isn’t going to be $150M unless the perfect set of circumstances come into play? You’ve literally made a crap name for yourself here because you can discuss a single thing without making it about all this other crap.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This probably isn't the team for you if "big names" and statistics like HRs and batting AVG are the depth of your knowledge. Adding undervalued players with similar OPS+, WAR, wRC+ at a fraction of the cost of the marquee names is the Brewers only sustainable path to success. My only concern with Stearns is whether or not the Brewers will be able to keep him.

[adambr2]

Scott is so bad since the first part of the season.

[BrewBalls]

I wonder how many days they are going to drag out this Garcia thing. They have been in serious and advanced talks for a couple days now. What’s the holdup?

 

Kind of an interesting situation. Wonder if something else is going on.

 

Tampa & the Brewers are in a bidding war for him, $500 at a time....

All I picture is both GM’s video chatting with Garcia’s agent and holding up silent bids on a piece of paper until one reaches a set number. Lol

[brewerhuman]

Funny how a lot of Brewer fans like to rationalize any bottom of the barrel player the Brewers decide sign as completely justified and borderline brilliant.

 

Again, he projects about as good offensively as Moose. Was he a bottom of the barrel player in your mind too?

 

Projections projections projections! I think this is what irritates me so much about every cheap signing the Brewers make. People will say well he projects to be the same as so and so. Except to this point in their careers they haven't produced like player so and so has. Projections aren't worth the paper they are printed on. You know what matters?? PRODUCTION. Until you prove you are as good as so and so, projections mean crap.

 

The irony, of course, is that calling a player you want a needle mover is, in itself, a projection. Is it not?

[BrewBalls]

Funny how a lot of Brewer fans like to rationalize any bottom of the barrel player the Brewers decide sign as completely justified and borderline brilliant.

 

Again, he projects about as good offensively as Moose. Was he a bottom of the barrel player in your mind too?

 

Difference being that Moose plays third base where offense is harder to find vs Garcia who plays a corner outfield spot where his numbers are a dime a dozen. Meanwhile we have no answers whatsoever at third base with a load of garbage options in free agency besides Donaldson who we rightfully aren’t paying 25 million per season for 4 years.

So you would’ve preferred we overspend for a slightly above average player because he makes up for his lack in production by being a good teammate and charismatic personality?

 

I honestly do not see the needle moving substantially more from resigning Moose and taking a one year flyer on a guy like Asdrubel Cabrera. Especially not enough to shell out an additional 3 years at $10MM per.

[wntrtxn21]

Stearns has some of the better players in the game on his roster. He also fills in holes on a budget and is damn good at doing it. Yet, here we are in every thread.

 

 

You just got to the heart of the problem. I don't know if you are a football fan or not, but this is VERY similar to what all teams try to do to win a Super Bowl. You have a cheap superstar(QB), in the Brewers case, Yelich.. EVERYONE knows the key to winning in football is having a cheap superstar QB under contract for 5 years and spend a crap ton of money around him while you can during that window to try wo win it all. YES the economics of the sports are different, but this should be the same way the Brewers operate, and all MLB teams. If you lose some money during those years, well you just do. But you HAVE to capitalize on the window while you have it.

 

Very easy to say when it's not your money you are losing. How long does a team go while losing money if they have a super star like Yelich? How much over the top money should they spend. When do they say enough is enough? You just can't compare football to baseball in any way because OF the economics. Teams in the NFL can "go for it" every year because everybody has the same amount of money to spend on players. Coaching, drafting, and developing draft picks are the keys to winning. In baseball teams can buy a pennant and titles.

[Brewcrewin07]

This probably isn't the team for you if "big names" and statistics like HRs and batting AVG are the depth of your knowledge. Adding undervalued players with similar OPS+, WAR, wRC+ at a fraction of the cost of the marquee names is the Brewers only sustainable path to success. My only concern with Stearns is whether or not the Brewers will be able to keep him.

 

Excuse me?? I have been around the game of baseball for well over 40 years. But thanks for the insult. You know what?? Adding those types of players, and only those types of players gives you little margin for error. IF and it's a BIG IF everything falls in to place all at the same time, it looks great. If it doesn't, and even one or two of them falter, that's enough to derail an entire season unless it's a perfect storm of other things that go exactly right and you can over come it. That's rare. I also don't like all the one year deals they hand out. The reason they do that I suspect is because they KNOW they are throwing darts and if they are lucky, they get one good year out of someone, and then they feel like geniuses. See Jhoulys Chacin as a perfect example. I would like to see them have a "core" of veterans that are there for more than one year or even two combined with some good young talent. THAT is a much more sustainable formula to me then what they do now.

 

I mean if Anderson gets shelled most of the year, Urias hits .220 Lauer is inconsistent, Lindblom is nothing spectacular, the Crew will be in HUGE trouble. That's living on the edge, with almost ZERO margin for error. That's not going to work consistently. Eventually, the clock strikes midnight.

[Brewcrewin07]

Again, he projects about as good offensively as Moose. Was he a bottom of the barrel player in your mind too?

 

Difference being that Moose plays third base where offense is harder to find vs Garcia who plays a corner outfield spot where his numbers are a dime a dozen. Meanwhile we have no answers whatsoever at third base with a load of garbage options in free agency besides Donaldson who we rightfully aren’t paying 25 million per season for 4 years.

So you would’ve preferred we overspend for a slightly above average player because he makes up for his lack in production by being a good teammate and charismatic personality?

 

I honestly do not see the needle moving substantially more from resigning Moose and taking a one year flyer on a guy like Asdrubel Cabrera. Especially not enough to shell out an additional 3 years at $10MM per.

 

Because by resigning Moose for multiple years, he likely helps you be good for multiple years, or at least not disastrous. Continually signing guys on one years deals means you essentially have to start over every year, and that means you have to hit on those players every single year. That's a tough thing to do.

 

Was Aramis Ramirez a disastrous signing for the Brewers?? I would hardly say he was.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This probably isn't the team for you if "big names" and statistics like HRs and batting AVG are the depth of your knowledge. Adding undervalued players with similar OPS+, WAR, wRC+ at a fraction of the cost of the marquee names is the Brewers only sustainable path to success. My only concern with Stearns is whether or not the Brewers will be able to keep him.

 

Excuse me?? I have been around the game of baseball for well over 40 years. But thanks for the insult. You know what?? Adding those types of players, and only those types of players gives you little margin for error. IF and it's a BIG IF everything falls in to place all at the same time, it looks great. If it doesn't, and even one or two of them falter, that's enough to derail an entire season unless it's a perfect storm of other things that go exactly right and you can over come it. That's rare. I also don't like all the one year deals they hand out. The reason they do that I suspect is because they KNOW they are throwing darts and if they are lucky, they get one good year out of someone, and then they feel like geniuses. See Jhoulys Chacin as a perfect example. I would like to see them have a "core" of veterans that are there for more than one year or even two combined with some good young talent. THAT is a much more sustainable formula to me then what they do now.

 

I mean if Anderson gets shelled most of the year, Urias hits .220 Lauer is inconsistent, Lindblom is nothing spectacular, the Crew will be in HUGE trouble. That's living on the edge, with almost ZERO margin for error. That's not going to work consistently. Eventually, the clock strikes midnight.

 

My post wasn't directed at you or anyone specifically, yet you took it that way and I apologize for that. I guess a better way to put it would be for fans to take a step back in the offseason and then enjoy the product on the field. Under Stearns there have been numerous pleasant surprises. Maybe it's time to make a choice between "benefit of the doubt" and I'll save my complaining until I see how the team assembled fares.

 

An example that comes to mind would be screaming and crying about not signing Alex Cobb and then criticizing the Wade Miley signing. Every winter is going to have budget-minded acquisitions like this. So for those so enraged at nugget-mining, maybe sit out the offseason if it generates so much angst.

[pacopete4]

I’d say we had a perfect storm last season of players not living up to what the Brewers thought they could do (Shaw, Aguilar, Burnes, Peralta, Cain, etc...) and then they found themselves in the playoffs almost knocking out the eventual champs.

[SRB]

Obviously reasonable people can disagree about whether Garcia would be a smart signing, whether he moves the needle, whether Moustakas is a better player because he plays 3B/2B, etc., but it's an objective fact that they are remarkably similar hitters over their careers.

 

Even if you only value HR and RBI (rather than advanced metrics or even just ordinary AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS), they are remarkably similar:

 

Avisail Garcia career: 74.13 RBI/600 PA

Mike Moustakas career: 74.19 RBI/600 PA

 

Avisail Garcia career: 19.0 HR/600 PA

Mike Moustakas career: 24.1 HR/600 PA

 

Moustakas only hit more than 22 HR in a season for the first time in 2017... when he was the age Garcia will be in 2020.

[Brewcrewin07]

I’d say we had a perfect storm last season of players not living up to what the Brewers thought they could do (Shaw, Aguilar, Burnes, Peralta, Cain, etc...) and then they found themselves in the playoffs almost knocking out the eventual champs.

 

But then doesn't that say that maybe they were wrong on how they projected them?? That's what I mean, they have almost no margin for error if/when they are wrong on someone.

 

Also, I'm not sure you should be "applauding" them making the playoffs, you sir were the absolute most vocal one on these boards that they should be selling. I hope you will agree how wrong that decision would have been, right?? You NEVER EVER sell and always add unless you are so far out of it it's obvious you need to sell.

[BrewBalls]

Because by resigning Moose for multiple years, he likely helps you be good for multiple years, or at least not disastrous. Continually signing guys on one years deals means you essentially have to start over every year, and that means you have to hit on those players every single year. That's a tough thing to do.

 

Was Aramis Ramirez a disastrous signing for the Brewers?? I would hardly say he was.

I’m glad you brought up Ramirez. He was a good for his first two seasons but was dead weight in the final year of his contract which is the major issue with depending heavily on signing big name/proven players via free agency. Almost all top name free agents are on the back end of their prime years and are wanting their first big payday to be reflection of their past production which means you are paying a player prime AAV salaries for what constitutes as a couple prime years and their initial deciding ones. Braun is another example of this. If you compare his numbers to other corner OFs in the league he would still be considered slightly above league average but since he is getting paid $17MM per it significantly negates his value. Having much less room for error, Stearns can not operate with multiple players like this.

 

Even teams with much higher revenue like the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox are finding themselves in binds due to these types of contracts (Heyward, Yu, Lester, CC, Elsbury, Happ, Price, Evoldi, Pedrioa). So regardless of how big your market/budget, these types of contracts are becoming major deterrents to front offices. There is a reason the previous two offseasons teams were not willing to shell out long term deals to 2nd and 3rd tier players like in the past. The analytics were showing how even though you were getting a few prime years the overall value was still considered to be negative value. I believe the reason we are seeing teams overspending this year is because the owners are afraid the players’ union would argue the owners were in collusion and trying to devalue the majority of MLB players since they are willing to spend big on the few elite players who hit free agency.

[pacopete4]

I’d say we had a perfect storm last season of players not living up to what the Brewers thought they could do (Shaw, Aguilar, Burnes, Peralta, Cain, etc...) and then they found themselves in the playoffs almost knocking out the eventual champs.

 

But then doesn't that say that maybe they were wrong on how they projected them?? That's what I mean, they have almost no margin for error if/when they are wrong on someone.

 

Also, I'm not sure you should be "applauding" them making the playoffs, you sir were the absolute most vocal one on these boards that they should be selling. I hope you will agree how wrong that decision would have been, right?? You NEVER EVER sell and always add unless you are so far out of it it's obvious you need to sell.

 

Every team, every year is wrong on projections for their roster. The Brewers just haven’t been dumb enough to hand boat loads of money to players long term and then be wrong so they can’t go out and fix the issues. They don’t have that luxury like other organization. In regards to selling, I’m glad they got in but if you asked me to do it all over, they should have sold on Moose and Grandal as I posted back then. Now they’re on other teams and we receive nothing from them as they wore down the stretch anyways. And they didn’t buy like you portray it. They added some pieces but sold off some too. And I’m sure without looking you complained all the way to the playoffs about adding a guy like Pomeranz.