Avisail Garcia

[wallus]

It all depends on price for me. Although competing against the Rays and Marlins probably means it won't be too much.

[SRB]

I'm not seeing any metrics that show his defense to look good. On fangraphs, he's career -43.5 runs career on defense, and on BR, he's -5.4 career dWAR. However you slice it, that's pretty bad.

 

I've only seen the guy play a few times, so I'm just looking at data, which is likely what most of the twitter "trolls" are doing. When you have data sets over that amount of time, it's probably pretty accurate.

 

We don't want the guy to be bad on defense because he's about to be our guy. The data suggests he's not that good. We're picking out things (sprint speed) and other things to say "hey, he's probably not THAT bad" to tell ourselves he's good on defense. The raw numbers say he is. It is what it is. He's a decent to solid bat who plays mediocre defense.

 

Garcia is at worst an average defender in RF. His overall numbers are skewed because he has been very bad when asked to play CF. In 4960 career innings in RF, he has a -1.0 UZR/150, and that is only negative because he put up bad numbers at the very start of his career (when he was very young). In recent years he has been firmly above average overall (+6.3 UZR/150 last season). There is no reason for Garcia to ever play CF for us, as he is behind Cain, Yelich, Gamel, and (if there's an extended injury) Taylor in the CF depth chart.

 

Also, in a meaningless sample size (113 innings), Garcia has a career +13.2 UZR/150 in LF. So, no, the numbers do not say he plays mediocre defense at the corners.

 

Domingo Santanta is legitimately terrible and should be a DH, which is weird because I remember when we first trade for him there was still a remote chance that he could play CF. It's like he totally gave up on the defensive side of the game.

[DuWayne Steurer]

There's one season that says he's average in RF and people keep saying the numbers are skewed because he's been asked to play in CF. He played 12 games in CF last year, and hadn't played in CF previously since 2013. The narrative that playing CF has skewed the numbers is pretty false. He's played 45 games, TOTAL, in his career. If people want to argue that recently he's been reasonably average in the OF, that's plausible, but again, the CF numbers are so miniscule that they're not really skewing the numbers.

 

I'll say this. I was responding to JMB who asked "why is this guy getting compared to Domingo Santana?"

 

He's got a pretty hefty sample that says he's not a great fielder. He's an average-ish hitter for a corner outfielder, and he's not a great fielder. He's not an absolute butcher in the field, like Santana is, but I can see why people would make the comparison.

 

The difference is (IMO) that Santana at this point has enough of a sample now that pretty much says he should only DH. Garcia is average enough that (as I previously stated) if he's even -5 for a season in a corner, he's not really hurting a team with his defense, as I'd consider that 'average'.

[SRB]

There's one season that says he's average in RF and people keep saying the numbers are skewed because he's been asked to play in CF. He played 12 games in CF last year, and hadn't played in CF previously since 2013. The narrative that playing CF has skewed the numbers is pretty false. He's played 45 games, TOTAL, in his career. If people want to argue that recently he's been reasonably average in the OF, that's plausible, but again, the CF numbers are so miniscule that they're not really skewing the numbers.

 

I'll say this. I was responding to JMB who asked "why is this guy getting compared to Domingo Santana?"

 

He's got a pretty hefty sample that says he's not a great fielder. He's an average-ish hitter for a corner outfielder, and he's not a great fielder. He's not an absolute butcher in the field, like Santana is, but I can see why people would make the comparison.

 

The difference is (IMO) that Santana at this point has enough of a sample now that pretty much says he should only DH. Garcia is average enough that (as I previously stated) if he's even -5 for a season in a corner, he's not really hurting a team with his defense, as I'd consider that 'average'.

 

There absolutely is not a "hefty sample" saying he's not a great fielder. As I mentioned his UZR numbers are weighted down almost entirely by his brief time in CF (a brief sample of being terrible really can skew the numbers that much), and even if you prefer DRS his career numbers are weighted down by a single metric from a single season. In 2015, the DRS range metric (rPM) somehow concluded that he was worth -15 runs. (In a season when UZR thought that his range was poor but overall his defense was roughly average, -0.5 UZR/150) That single metric/season accounts for three quarters of his career net -20 DRS in RF.

 

Not only do I think it's good practice to throw out extreme outliers like that, but it is why I prefer UZR/150 because a rate stat over an extended sample size gives you a better idea of how good a fielder really is, in my opinion.

[DuWayne Steurer]

So he is a great fielder? I didn't say terrible. I said "Not a great fielder"

 

His RF only UZR/150 is -1. Per season, as a RF only, he's negative, negative, negative, negative, plus, plus, negative, plus. He's kind of all over the place, and again, I can live with that.

[Eye Black]

I will be content if the team adds Avisail Garcia. I think he has a decent chance to be a slightly above average player at a fraction of the cost as compared to some of the “bigger name” corner outfielders on the market. If he is ultimately their biggest remaining offensive addition this offseason then I will be disappointed.

 

In a vacuum I would prefer Castellanos, even at a much higher cost, simply because I have a gut feeling he is about to unlock another level, but hopefully saving some money on the corner outfielder (not to mention the cost savings already on so many other places on the roster) will allow the team to take on some money to add an impact bat at one of the corner infield spots (likely via trade).

 

Of the 122 games he started for the 96-win Rays team last year below are the number of starts Garcia had in each spot in the batting order...

 

1st: 9 starts

2nd: 1 start

3rd: 4 starts

4th: 50 starts

5th: 26 starts

6th: 23 starts

7th: 9 starts

 

For the Brewers he would ideally be a guy they’d be starting in the 6th spot in the order more often than 4th/5th, but that would obviously require another impact bat being added to the lineup.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look Garcia was very highly regarded early in his career. Much more so than Santana. He spent very little time in the higher minors, but destroyed AAA pitching at a very young age. The White Sox thought they were getting a future star when they traded for him in 2013. They were patient with him but he frustrated them, showing flashes but not the consistency and his power never developed to the levels expected of him. Could he be the next Nelson Cruz, who blossoms later? That's probably not going to happen but is he a serviceable semi regular corner outfielder? Absolutely, and there still might be untapped upside in the right situation

[adambr2]

Look Garcia was very highly regarded early in his career. Much more so than Santana. He spent very little time in the higher minors, but destroyed AAA pitching at a very young age. The White Sox thought they were getting a future star when they traded for him in 2013. They were patient with him but he frustrated them, showing flashes but not the consistency and his power never developed to the levels expected of him. Could he be the next Nelson Cruz, who blossoms later? That's probably not going to happen but is he a serviceable semi regular corner outfielder? Absolutely, and there still might be untapped upside in the right situation

 

Seems fair. I would guess Garcia's production is similar to Castellano's going forward for far less of a cost.

[JDBrewCrew]

Marc Topkin

@TBTimes_Rays

Avisail Garcia’s talks with #Brewers, as @josefriverap first reported, are indeed serious + advanced. #Rays had some interest in re-signing, even after deals for Renfroe + Tsutsugo. #Marlins were also on him. If he does go to MIL, #Rays will keep looking for RH bat to add.

11:11 AM · Dec 15, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

[liveforoctober]

Does anyone have access to Garcia's spray chart?

 

Without having any knowledge of it, I am guessing he possesses decent opposite field power? All of our best power hitting RHB in the last few years (Braun, Aguilar, Santana, etc) have all had Right Center pop where the lefty advantage also plays. I would love to know if this hunch is correct...

[Brewcrewin07]

Look Garcia was very highly regarded early in his career. Much more so than Santana. He spent very little time in the higher minors, but destroyed AAA pitching at a very young age. The White Sox thought they were getting a future star when they traded for him in 2013. They were patient with him but he frustrated them, showing flashes but not the consistency and his power never developed to the levels expected of him. Could he be the next Nelson Cruz, who blossoms later? That's probably not going to happen but is he a serviceable semi regular corner outfielder? Absolutely, and there still might be untapped upside in the right situation

 

Seems fair. I would guess Garcia's production is similar to Castellano's going forward for far less of a cost.

 

No

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Look Garcia was very highly regarded early in his career. Much more so than Santana. He spent very little time in the higher minors, but destroyed AAA pitching at a very young age. The White Sox thought they were getting a future star when they traded for him in 2013. They were patient with him but he frustrated them, showing flashes but not the consistency and his power never developed to the levels expected of him. Could he be the next Nelson Cruz, who blossoms later? That's probably not going to happen but is he a serviceable semi regular corner outfielder? Absolutely, and there still might be untapped upside in the right situation

 

Seems fair. I would guess Garcia's production is similar to Castellano's going forward for far less of a cost.

 

No

 

Agreed. I think Castellanos's breakout last year, especially after being traded to the Cubs, was legit. I really wish/hope that the Brewers are looking at him, because I think he's going to be great, especially if he stays in the NL.

 

Garcia is not a bad player, though. Definitely a better defender than Castellanos, and a solid bat in his own right. Would be a nice stick to add to the lineup, assuming we can find a LH power stick for 3B.

[BrewBalls]

Does anyone get the feeling Stearns might be looking to trade away Braun for a salary dump option like Seager? It still saves Seattle a couple million this year and Kyle’s entire salary in 2021.

[markedman5]

Does anyone get the feeling Stearns might be looking to trade away Braun for a salary dump option like Seager? It still saves Seattle a couple million this year and Kyle’s entire salary in 2021.

 

No.....Braun has full no trade protection....he isn’t going anywhere

[RollieTime]

Does anyone get the feeling Stearns might be looking to trade away Braun for a salary dump option like Seager? It still saves Seattle a couple million this year and Kyle’s entire salary in 2021.

 

Not at all. He’s a career Brewers player. He’s also on the last year of a contract and is still a productive bat. His no trade clause would also become an issue. I would personally think it’s a bad look if they look at moving him now. If he produces like he did last season, he is well worth it. Especially if he is our 6 hole hitter on most days like it seems like he could be.

[SRB]

Braun is still a very good hitter, I don't see why we would dump him. It fills a huge hole if they think he can handle 1B more or less full time.

[brewcrewdue80]

So since I found the way to get prior statcast numbers on Hitters here's where the two Garcia/Castellanos stand.

Numbers are 2017-2019 left to right.

Exit Velocity- Garcia 90.3/90.3/89.5 Castellanos 89.1/89.6/89.0

Barrel Pct- Garcia 8.8/11.6/11.7 Castellanos 10.7/11.2/11.2

Launch Angle- Garcia 7.5/9.6/9.8 Castellanos 14.1/15.2/13.9

K%&BB%- Garcia 19.8&5.9/26.5&6.2/23.6&5.8

Castellanos 21.4&6.2/22.3&7.2/21.5&6.2

Here's where statcast helps. They have a career and what their 2019 suggested in BA/SLG/OB

For Garcia the last 3: .309/.375/.525 .254/.304/.466 .275/.334/.494 OPS of .900, .770, .828

Career avg: .278/.324/.464 OPS of .788

Castellanos last 3: .290/.341/.546 .301/.363/.530 .283/.358/.547 Ops of .887, .893, .905

Career avg: .285/.345/.527 OPS of .872

 

Avisail as mentioned before Bad in CF, Avg to just under in RF, Above avg in LF.

Castellanos just grades below avg anywhere you put him.

BWAR is Avisail 6.9 to Castellanos 5.6 the last 3 years.

 

Castellanos hasn't played 1b.

 

In truth yep they are about the same player moving forward. Castellanos will provide close to twice the value with the bat and Garcia provides twice the value in defense. Garcia does have some nicks in injuries. Oblique and Hamstring strains.

And last would maybe be that park overlay with their Statcast numbers.

FWIW have a look at Yelich:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-yelich-592885?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

He was just about better in 19 than any of his '18 numbers. (they somehow have his Hard hit % less)

[BrewBalls]

Does anyone get the feeling Stearns might be looking to trade away Braun for a salary dump option like Seager? It still saves Seattle a couple million this year and Kyle’s entire salary in 2021.

 

No.....Braun has full no trade protection....he isn’t going anywhere

My mistake. I was under the impression it was a partial trade clause.

[RollieTime]

I wonder how many days they are going to drag out this Garcia thing. They have been in serious and advanced talks for a couple days now. What’s the holdup?

 

Kind of an interesting situation. Wonder if something else is going on.

[SRB]

I wonder how many days they are going to drag out this Garcia thing. They have been in serious and advanced talks for a couple days now. What’s the holdup?

 

Kind of an interesting situation. Wonder if something else is going on.

 

Could be Stearns to trying to get him to sign some weird deal, like two years with multiple team options or something like that.

[RollieTime]

I wonder how many days they are going to drag out this Garcia thing. They have been in serious and advanced talks for a couple days now. What’s the holdup?

 

Kind of an interesting situation. Wonder if something else is going on.

 

Could be Stearns to trying to get him to sign some weird deal, like two years with multiple team options or something like that.

 

That’s kind of what I’m thinking too. 2 year deal and the Brewers want 2 option years after that and Garcia only wants to do 1 option year or something. And then Garcia wants a higher AAV up front to take the second option year or something like that and it’s just back and forth. That’s what I’ve been pondering for the last day or so.

[Brewcrewin07]

I mean I don't care if they sign him or not. Don't see how much he'd really add to the offensive. Not a needle mover like I think Donaldson or Castellanos would be anyway.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I mean I don't care if they sign him or not. Don't see how much he'd really add to the offensive. Not a needle mover like I think Donaldson or Castellanos would be anyway.

 

I like Castellanos better, but the two of these guys are not that much different in the overall scheme. If Castellanos time with the Cubs is who he really is, then he's better. But Garcia is a good player.

[3and2Fastball]

I wonder how many days they are going to drag out this Garcia thing. They have been in serious and advanced talks for a couple days now. What’s the holdup?

 

Kind of an interesting situation. Wonder if something else is going on.

 

Tampa & the Brewers are in a bidding war for him, $500 at a time....

[PeaveyFury]

I mean I don't care if they sign him or not. Don't see how much he'd really add to the offensive. Not a needle mover like I think Donaldson or Castellanos would be anyway.

 

You were angry they didn’t resign Moose, but Garcia projects to have similar numbers as him. One can’t be a huge loss while the other is a ‘not a needle mover’ addition.....