Kenta Maeda

[JosephC]

Reports are that he's unhappy with the Dodgers because he signed a long-term deal with huge incentives for starts and innings pitched and the Dodgers have flipped him in and out of the rotation even though his stats have been good since joining the team (3.87 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/K ratio). He's averaged 147 1/3 innings per season even with the moves to the bullpen, but would likely be a solid 180 innings pitched per season guy if left in the rotation. He's 31 years old and will turn 32 prior to the start of next season.

 

Normally I would just say that the Dodgers won't be trading him, but it sounds like Maeda is really unhappy, knows his situation with the Dodgers won't improve and really wants out. So the Dodgers would be carrying an unhappy player throughout the season, and at the same time all the Japanese prospects see that Maeda gave the Dodgers a good deal to sign with them and now aren't giving him innings and may not want to trade him. I think the Dodgers probably deal him if Maeda pushes the issue.

 

His contract makes it very difficult to estimate what his surplus value would be.

 

From Cots:

contract runs for 4 more seasons

3 million base salary per season

0.150 million bonus for being on opening day roster

1 million dollars if/when reached 15 starts, another 1 million for 20 starts, another 1.5 million when reaching 25 starts, another 1.5 million when reaching 30 starts, another 1.5 million when reaching 32 starts (can total up to 6.5 million per season)

0.250 million for each innings pitched threshold reached: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 and then 0.750 million if he gets to 200 innings pitched (can total up to 3.5 million per season)

 

So if the guy gets stuck in the bullpen for the whole season, he earns 3.15 million dollars.

If he does what Zach Davies did last year (31 starts, 159 2/3 innings pitched), he earns 9.9 million dollars.

 

Over the last three years he's been a 2.0 bWAR/fWAR player. Pro-rating his inning up to 180 innings pitched (assuming he is a full-time starter for a new team), would elevate him to a 2.4 WAR player.

 

If one uses the rule of thumb of subtracting -0.5 WAR per season due to age, it means he's be good for 4.6 WAR over the remainder of his contract (I'd be willing to gamble that he will exceed that number).

 

4.6 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 41.4 million in total value.

 

So if he does about what Davies did last year, he'd earn 39.6 million which would literally put his surplus value at one fringe prospect.

 

Obviously the Dodgers would expect more than one fringe prospect for Maeda. The incentives in the contract make it almost impossible to come up with a solid surplus value, but we can probably conclude that asking for a top 100 prospect would be unreasonable from the Dodgers end.

 

I just find him interesting because out of that "third tier" of free agent pitchers (Hamels, Gibson, Teheran), I like Maeda as much as any of those guys, and if he does hit Zach Davies starts/innings pitched number, he likely ends up making about the same as those other guys (probably a few million less than Hamels, few million more than Teheran, about the same as Gibson). His deal does run 4 seasons...but even if he's really bad at the end, then the cost is only 3.15 million per season.

 

The one knock on him is that he's bad against lefty hitters but his number against them are hardly disastrous (they've slashed .261/.331/.450/.781 off Maeda from 2017-2019). If that truly is his greatest weakness, I wouldn't be that concerned since he rates very highly against righties (.193/.248/.346/.595).

 

I find him interesting enough where I'd be giving the Dodgers a call if I were Stearns. I wouldn't be dealing any of the top 6 or 7 out of the system for him, but would be interested if they happened to like a couple of the guys in the...say...#9 to #20 range.

[JosephC]

Actually, scratch the whole thing.

 

Just going through more numbers and noticed a 3.24 ERA at home and a 4.90 ERA on the road from 2017-2019, which is enough to get me to abandon the whole idea.

 

Still having trouble finding pitchers I like in this market (both free agent and trade).

[RollieTime]

Really like this idea. If he gets hurt at any point for an extended length of time, he won’t be eating up much of the payroll since he’s not reaching the incentives. If he pitches well and is healthy all season, he gets rewarded. He has shown to be a solid mid rotation arm that is on a pretty team friendly deal that doesn’t have much risk with it. If we could work something out for him, I would be all for it. Especially if it only costs us a fringe prospect or two.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sounds to me like LA designed a deal that from the onset keeps their payroll lower or below Luxury tax threshold. How does MLB assess the Payroll for the Dodgers if the player is 3.15mil and at end of season 14.15?

 

On the flip side, I wish contracts were like Maeda's. Say for Rookies especially and do away with Arb. To some extent. Instead of under 1mil for the first 3+ seasons, the guy could make say 10mil in any of those years. Maybe you just hand down 6years team control/ length of time to sign an agreed contract.

[wntrtxn21]

Sounds to me like LA designed a deal that from the onset keeps their payroll lower or below Luxury tax threshold. How does MLB assess the Payroll for the Dodgers if the player is 3.15mil and at end of season 14.15?

 

On the flip side, I wish contracts were like Maeda's. Say for Rookies especially and do away with Arb. To some extent. Instead of under 1mil for the first 3+ seasons, the guy could make say 10mil in any of those years. Maybe you just hand down 6years team control/ length of time to sign an agreed contract.

 

I believe that his salary, plus bonus (aveaged out over the life of the contract), plus incentives count towards the end of the year lux. tax. So all $14.15M would count against the tax.

[wntrtxn21]

Really like this idea. If he gets hurt at any point for an extended length of time, he won’t be eating up much of the payroll since he’s not reaching the incentives. If he pitches well and is healthy all season, he gets rewarded. He has shown to be a solid mid rotation arm that is on a pretty team friendly deal that doesn’t have much risk with it. If we could work something out for him, I would be all for it. Especially if it only costs us a fringe prospect or two.

 

Maeda was extremely unhappy with the Yankees and the way they handled his playing time. They put him in the pen when his IPs got too close to the incentive to kick in. A team could easily manipulate a player's ABs, IPs, etc... to keep the bonus from being paid. That's why you aren't seeing too many contracts with incentives any more.

[JosephC]

Sounds to me like LA designed a deal that from the onset keeps their payroll lower or below Luxury tax threshold. How does MLB assess the Payroll for the Dodgers if the player is 3.15mil and at end of season 14.15?

 

On the flip side, I wish contracts were like Maeda's. Say for Rookies especially and do away with Arb. To some extent. Instead of under 1mil for the first 3+ seasons, the guy could make say 10mil in any of those years. Maybe you just hand down 6years team control/ length of time to sign an agreed contract.

 

I believe that his salary, plus bonus (aveaged out over the life of the contract), plus incentives count towards the end of the year lux. tax. So all $14.15M would count against the tax.

 

I think what you said is on the money, but just for clarification...

 

All the guaranteed money in a deal is averaged over the guaranteed number of years in a contract, and that is the annual luxury tax amount over the guaranteed years of the deal.

 

For example with Ryan Braun.

Last extension was for 5 years with a 6th year that can be bought out (5 guaranteed years)

Base salaries in the guaranteed years are 19, 19, 19, 18 and 16 million dollars (91 million total)

Buyout for the last year is guaranteed (4 million total)

Received a 10 million signing bonus that was paid in equal installments from 2012-2015, new contract didn't even kick in until 2016 (10 million total)

Total guaranteed money = 105 million

Guaranteed years = 5

Braun's luxury tax charge from 2016-2020 = 21 million each season

 

And the team's total luxury tax is calculated at the end of the year, when all the incentives reached would be known. So if Braun had earned an additional 2 million in incentives in 2016, an additional 3 million in incentives in 2017, an additional 1 million in incentives in 2018 and then no incentives the last two seasons of the deal, then his yearly luxury tax figures over those five seasons would be 23 million, 24 million, 22 million, 21 million and 21 million.

 

That's my understanding of the system.

 

Anyone with greater knowledge of this system...feel free to correct me.

 

The reason MLB takes the average of the guaranteed money is to prevent teams from structuring contracts with low numbers in particular years to get them below the threshold every so often to reset the tax percentage. For example, say the Dodgers sign Garrett Cole to an 8 year, 280 million dollar deal (35 million average). If MLB didn't take the average, the Dodgers could structure the yearly salaries as 45 million, 45 million, 5 million, 45 million, 45 million, 5 million, 45 million, 45 million...combined with structuring a couple other player contracts the same way, could get themselves under the threshold and reset the tax every third season.

 

I don't see any funny luxury tax shenanigans with Maeda's contract.