2020 Player Projections

[Vollbc74]

Projections are for the 10 players with the most expected ABs

[MrTPlush]

Our season will ride on the backs of the rotation. If they "overachieve" like the Brewers plan/hope we are likely set for a nice season. If they play to their projection, or worse, we will probably struggle to stay in serious contention. That is basically what the projection shows. The lineup is good, bullpen is great, and the rotation is subpar.

 

We aren't going to blow many teams away with our rotation, that is pretty obvious. That leaves us hoping for health and avoiding a chunk of starts going to 6+ ERA pitchers.

[sveumrules]

Looks like the Cubs ZIPS projections are out...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

 

NL Central contender ZIPS thus far....

 

CIN Starting Pitchers 14.2 WAR

CHI Starting Pitchers 13.1 WAR

STL Starting Pitchers 11.6 WAR

MKE Starting Pitchers 10.4 WAR

 

MKE Relief Pitchers 6.3 WAR

STL Relief Pitchers 3.8 WAR

CIN Relief Pitchers 3.6 WAR

CHI Relief Pitchers 3.3 WAR

 

CHI Position Players 24.3 WAR

MKE Position Players 21.4 WAR

STL Position Players 20.5 WAR

CIN Postiion Players 17.8 WAR

 

CHI Total Projected 40.7 WAR

MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR

STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR

CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR

 

Should be a fun summer.

[Eye Black]

Mike Petriello of MLB.com did an article where he tried to determine the Deepest Lineups in 2020 by using the following criteria:

 

- We'll use the Steamer projections housed at FanGraphs

 

- We'll look only for players projected to have at least 300 plate appearances

 

- Of those, we'll look only for hitters projected to have an average-or-better 100 wRC+

 

The 2020 projections for a total of 155 players in MLB matched the above criteria (the last two years the actual results have led to 149 and 159 players matching/exceeding this threshold when the season was over).

 

The Twins led the way with an incredible 10 such players with Steamer projections that matched the criteria heading into 2020. The Brewers and Red Sox tied for 10th with 6 such players a piece. One reason I found this exercise interesting is I get the feeling the Brewers goal is to fill their lineup out with as many average or better offensive players as possible, some of which they will certainly do using platoons instead of lineup mainstays. They are about where I would have guessed on the list.

 

Below is the chart showing the results for all teams.

 

[Eye Black]

Fancy Christian Yelich Steamer projection graphic from MLB...

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Fancy Christian Yelich Steamer projection graphic from MLB...

 

 

Weak. 7+WAR last 2 seasons and they go 5.7? Impressive total in Runs though.

[Ennder]

Well projections have to include the chance for injury etc, that is why they always seem so muted. Yelich really can't do too much better than he has the past 2 years but there are lots of scenarios where he does worse.

[pacopete4]

Fluke injury or not, I expect him to take a step back because it is tough to maintain the pace he was going at.