2020 Player Projections

[MrTPlush]

Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.

 

Come on man, we both know he was talking about Weeks in general, not his single worst season. Weeks probably averaged about -3 to -5 on Fangraphs. He even ended up with a positive WAR multiple times.

 

Not saying Hiura can’t improve, but generally comparing him to Weeks he was notably worse last year.

[MrTPlush]

Weeks couldn’t field, had little throwing accuracy, and missed countless throws at first when covering bunts. I always hoped he would get better since he had decent arm strength, but his poor mechanics and footwork killed those hopes. Hiura has a stronger arm than advertised, but needs to work on accuracy. I can’t recall him with many fielding mistakes...weren’t they mostly throwing?

 

A large majority of his errors were throwing, but there definitely was a good chunk that were fielding too. He really needs to cut the errors down or that is one rough 20+ error defender.

[JosephC]

I thought Hiura's footwork was poor and his judgement on those "in-between hops" was just awful. There were a couple times that he looked so unsure whether to come in or back up that I thought he was going to fall over.

 

Weeks was a rather bad second baseman but IMO he was way ahead of where Hiura is now. I thought Weeks actually did a pretty good job when having to play balls to his left, in the hole between first and second. But any moderately difficult play to his right, you could forget about getting an out on that play.

[sveumrules]

There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

 

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

 

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

 

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.

[homer]

Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.

 

Come on man, we both know he was talking about Weeks in general, not his single worst season. Weeks probably averaged about -3 to -5 on Fangraphs. He even ended up with a positive WAR multiple times.

 

Not saying Hiura can’t improve, but generally comparing him to Weeks he was notably worse last year.

 

His single worst season also happened to be his first season....same as Hiura last year. So it was as apples to apples as can be. Weeks was worse his first year than Hiura was. I'm not sure how anyone can look at Weeks in his 5th year and use that to compare to Hiura after one year.

[DHonks]

There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

 

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

 

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

 

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.

 

Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.

[homer]

There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

 

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

 

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

 

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.

 

Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.

 

Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he

[MrTPlush]

That 2011 team defense....ooof. McGehee/Yuni B/Weeks/Fielder then Braun/Morgan/Hart

 

I am not sure where that ranks in overall team defense historically, but it has got to be pretty low.

[sveumrules]

There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

 

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

 

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

 

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.

 

Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.

 

Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he

 

In 2007 we had Braun (-32/-28.5), Weeks (-10/-2.4) & Fielder (-15/-8.1) combine for -57 DRS & -39 UZR, or around 4-6 wins losses. Pitchers probably prayed every ball was hit to Hardy (+9 DRS/+12.8 UZR).

 

JJ ranks favorably by the advanced metrics coming in at 7th in DRS (+88) & 2nd in UZR (+94.5) since they've been tracked, 2002/2003.

[Eye Black]

I just realized Clay Davenport’s Projection System has Luis Urias listed as the Brewers second most valuable position player with a projected 3.5 WAR this season and it projects him for a 138 games played at SS. If he approaches that sort of production it would exceed my wildest expectations, and make for a fun organizational turnaround at the SS position.

 

The last update on his model was the end of December, so overall plenty is still subject to change.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers ZiPS projections have been released, the full Fangraphs article is linked below.

 

2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

 

 

 

They are the first team in the NL Central to have their player projections released.

 

Last year the Brewers ZiPS projections going into the season broke down as follows:

 

2019 Brewers ZiPS (41.8 projected WAR)

Starters 11.4

Bullpen 5.8

Position Players 24.6

 

This year's projected ZiPS total is lower by 3.7 WAR:

 

2020 Brewers ZiPS (38.1 projected WAR)

Starters 10.4

Bullpen 6.3

Position Players 21.4

[sveumrules]

2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

 

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

 

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

 

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

[TJseven7]

2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

 

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

 

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

 

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

 

I wanted them to spend more money and bring in a needle mover. There's no way this team is better than last years because I say so.

 

Fact of this off season is that DS has done magician like work piecing together these players at the price he has. Low waste, low risk, high flexibility and the projections work out.

 

Now we get to sit back and see how reality plays out. Something no one can know for certain.

[stalton]

If my math is right, our 2019 actual WAR total was 37.0, 4.8 lower than the posted 41.8 WAR

[KeithStone53151]

I think those projections are incomplete. 34 hr for Yelich, they must only be counting 1st half stats...

[Eye Black]

2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

 

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

 

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

 

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

The Reds ZiPS projections came out today.

 

By comparison the Reds 2020 projections broke down as follows...

 

Position Player ZiPS projected WAR: 17.8

Starting Pitcher ZiPS projected WAR: 14.2

Bullpen ZiPS projected WAR: 3.6

 

So right now that total of 35.6 projected WAR ranks 2.5 wins behind the Brewers 2020 projection.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

 

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

 

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1

2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

 

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

The Reds ZiPS projections came out today.

 

By comparison the Reds 2020 projections broke down as follows...

 

Position Player ZiPS projected WAR: 17.8

Starting Pitcher ZiPS projected WAR: 14.2

Bullpen ZiPS projected WAR: 3.6

 

So right now that total of 35.6 projected WAR ranks 2.5 wins behind the Brewers 2020 projection.

 

But ... but ... the Reds have improved SOOO much!

 

Like I've been saying ... they are junk until they prove they aren't. Making a few signings in the offseason doesn't automatically turn a trash team into a good one.

[clancyphile]

Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.

 

Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he

 

The offense was epic, though... and enough for me to overlook the D.

[MadScientist]

I'm worried. ZIPS doesn't suggest that the Brewers will suck this year. That's probably a bad omen.

[sveumrules]

Cardinals ZIPS released today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

 

NL Central ZIPS thus far....

 

CIN Starting Pitchers 14.2 WAR

STL Starting Pitchers 11.6 WAR

MKE Starting Pitchers 10.4 WAR

 

MKE Relief Pitchers 6.3 WAR

STL Relief Pitchers 3.8 WAR

CIN Relief Pitchers 3.6 WAR

 

MKE Position Players 21.4 WAR

STL Position Players 20.5 WAR

CIN Postiion Players 17.8 WAR

 

MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR

STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR

CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR

[Ennder]

Reds and Brewers both have a lot of goofy players that could go either way. Guys like Sogard who has been really good twice and just awful once, who knows what he is going to be this season. Projection systems are going to have large error bands for both of those teams.

[PeaveyFury]

MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR

STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR

CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR

 

I do think it's really interesting that despite the non-flashy way the Brewers turned the roster over this offseason, they seem to have improved the roster from 1-26. As Ennder noted, though, there are a lot of players that could push this significantly one way or the other.

 

I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.

[Eye Black]

I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.

Same for me. Maybe I am setting myself up to be disappointed, but the fact Stearns has twice told the Brewers beat reporters this off-season that he thought there were opportunities to upgrade via trade gives me hope that something will come together to give the roster an additional boost.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.

Same for me. Maybe I am setting myself up to be disappointed, but the fact Stearns has twice told the Brewers beat reporters this off-season that he thought there were opportunities to upgrade via trade gives me hope that something will come together to give the roster an additional boost.

 

The moves so far, while seemingly mostly quality, haven't been the type that lather up the fanbase and get them excited (although I'm personally really excited for Garcia, Narvaez and Lindblom). Right now they have a team that should be very competitive on paper. While they probably don't "need" a bit acquisition to contend for a division title, it would certainly be fun, and get the fanbase into the Brewers going into Spring Training.

[Vollbc74]

NL Central SteamerOPS projection and 3yOPS