2020 Player Projections

[Eye Black]

The Steamer Projections for 2020 came out earlier this week. Currently only 10 Brewers position players are being projected to get meaningful playing time, so obviously that will change as additional position player acquisitions occur.

 

 

 

If you’re curious, below are the highest projected free agents (in order of projected WAR).

 

[ntretts]

Trent Grisham projected to hit 21 homers? Never really thought of him as a power guy but I guess with the juiced ball anybody can hit for power.

[MrTPlush]

Hiura with -3.6 defense and Yelich with -6.6

 

LOL...Hiura was worthy of -7.1 defense last year in 84 games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Interesting that, while the projected numbers for Shaw aren't spectacular, they don't have him falling flat on his face, either. I'd gladly take 25 HRs, 74 RBIs and a .778 OPS from him if the plan is to make him a regular. Also note that Arcia is projected to have a better OPS than Iglesias.

[JosephC]

So much to comment on here.

 

Yelich's defense fell off a bit last year and it's not encouraging to see him tagged with a -6.6 this year.

 

If Cain bounced back and OBP's .348, IMO he's a more valuable player than a 2.8 WAR would indicate.

 

It's very likely that the Brewers will lose either Grandal and/or Moustakas, and as such the offense figures to take a bit of a step backwards (maybe, maybe not). But it would be tough to lose either of those guys and then have Hiura only OPS .825. That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825. But I'm expecting the OPS to be .875 minimum and easily could be well over .900 again, which makes the poor defense much easier to live with.

 

Travis Shaw has to be about the hardest projection in all of MLB.

 

Interesting to see them projecting Arcia as a .308 OBP player with + defense. A 1.0 WAR player is nothing to write home about, but I think most Brewer fans would be happy with Arcia if he could achieve that in 2020.

[wntrtxn21]

Interesting that, while the projected numbers for Shaw aren't spectacular, they don't have him falling flat on his face, either. I'd gladly take 25 HRs, 74 RBIs and a .778 OPS from him if the plan is to make him a regular. Also note that Arcia is projected to have a better OPS than Iglesias.

 

They also had Freitas as a 3.5 Def. when the Brewers see him as a negative behind the plate.

[liveforoctober]

Braun as a -13.2 defensively is hard to see. I wonder what that number becomes with a move to 1B? The fact that they have both Braun and Arcia ending the year with the same WAR is either really funny or really scary.

 

Has Josh Donaldson's name come up at all with Brewers' brass as a stop gap if Moustakas signs elsewhere? His numbers last year were nothing to sneeze at, although I understand his salary would likely be astronomical...

[MrTPlush]

Braun as a -13.2 defensively is hard to see. I wonder what that number becomes with a move to 1B?

 

Are we sure that doesn't already account for a move to 1B? They have Cain/Yelich playing daily and Braun/Grisham are both around 130 games. I know the projections don't always take this kind of stuff into consideration, but usually isn't ignored where Grisham is an essential starter in a full OF already.

 

I don't see how Braun is suddenly going to be 2x worse on defense than last year. Being -10+ is getting pretty horrendous. He isn't pretty out there...but jeez.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura 825 OPS, oh boy. That projection has to be at least 50 points below what the projection should be and about 100 points below what probably happens. I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high. Pitching projections seem like a complete waste of time, they pretty much project everyone within 0.5 of a 4.25 ERA and randomly assign innings/starts.

[KeithStone53151]

The Cubs projections seem oddly well done actually. I would probably say Contreras is a 1.9 WAR while Heyward is a 1.3 WAR(which just swaps the 2...in what universe should Pina project better than Contreras?)...and Happ and Schwarber seem a touch optimistic, but they are also approaching that golden age for hitters so it makes sense.

[JohnBriggs12]

Trent Grisham projected to hit 21 homers? Never really thought of him as a power guy but I guess with the juiced ball anybody can hit for power.

 

He hit 32 HR combined in AA, AAA and majors in 2018. I think the Brewers expect 20+ from him in 2020.

 

Steamer has a lot more confidence in a rebound from Shaw than I do.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Trent Grisham projected to hit 21 homers? Never really thought of him as a power guy but I guess with the juiced ball anybody can hit for power.

 

He hit 32 HR combined in AA, AAA and majors in 2018. I think the Brewers expect 20+ from him in 2020.

 

Steamer has a lot more confidence in a rebound from Shaw than I do.

 

Steamer has a lot more confidence in a Shaw rebound than what seems like 99% of Brewer fans, which I'm having a hard time understanding. It's as if these people believe that the guy's career started in 2019. He isn't at the age where you typically see major decline (I know I know Chris Davis ... but he's an outlier). There is obvious risk and questions marks, but I find it hard to believe that the guy can go from great in 2017, and very good in 2018, to the worst hitter in the majors in 2019, without there being some kind of fixable reason behind it.

[bill hAll Star]

Hiura 825 OPS, oh boy. That projection has to be at least 50 points below what the projection should be and about 100 points below what probably happens. I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high. Pitching projections seem like a complete waste of time, they pretty much project everyone within 0.5 of a 4.25 ERA and randomly assign innings/starts.

 

Depends on if we're using the juiced ball or not. Hiura is probably an .825-.850 OPS guy with the old ball.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura 825 OPS, oh boy. That projection has to be at least 50 points below what the projection should be and about 100 points below what probably happens. I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high. Pitching projections seem like a complete waste of time, they pretty much project everyone within 0.5 of a 4.25 ERA and randomly assign innings/starts.

 

Depends on if we're using the juiced ball or not. Hiura is probably an .825-.850 OPS guy with the old ball.

 

Maybe last year he was. He's only 23 and has the skill set to significantly improve his production in the coming years. Just like with Happ and Schwarber, projections should be assuming young players will improve at least through age 27...especially those that are elite prospects with elite bat speed.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Arcia is projected to have a higher OPS (702) than Iglesias (693). Ha.

[trwi7]

Hiura 825 OPS, oh boy. That projection has to be at least 50 points below what the projection should be and about 100 points below what probably happens. I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high. Pitching projections seem like a complete waste of time, they pretty much project everyone within 0.5 of a 4.25 ERA and randomly assign innings/starts.

 

Depends on if we're using the juiced ball or not. Hiura is probably an .825-.850 OPS guy with the old ball.

 

Maybe last year he was. He's only 23 and has the skill set to significantly improve his production in the coming years. Just like with Happ and Schwarber, projections should be assuming young players will improve at least through age 27...especially those that are elite prospects with elite bat speed.

 

He had a .402 BABIP. Even if he improves his strikeout rate, he isn't going to improve on that BABIP.

[LouisEly]

I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high.

Fangraphs had Pina as a 1.1 WAR player last year with only 179 plate appearances. This has him with double the playing time he had last year, so quite possible. Catching league-wide is pretty bad offensively, and defensively he's pretty good.

[DHonks]

That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.

 

Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Hiura 825 OPS, oh boy. That projection has to be at least 50 points below what the projection should be and about 100 points below what probably happens. I'm a bit surprised they consider Pina a 1.8 WAR catcher with 60% playing time. That seems really high. Pitching projections seem like a complete waste of time, they pretty much project everyone within 0.5 of a 4.25 ERA and randomly assign innings/starts.

 

Hirua ran a 30% K-Rate with a 65% contact rate (not good) and a .400+ BABIP last year, I’m guessing that factored in to projecting a ~100 point drop in OPS. It’s hard to be overly successful with that K and contact rate.

[JosephC]

12 months ago I was 100% skeptical that Braun would ever play 1B again because, frankly, the metrics from his brief time there a couple years ago weren't good (-19.0 UZR/150) and the Brewers didn't seem to have much interest in getting him work at 1B in spring training last year.

 

But Braun's performance in LF was so bad that the Brewers are probably resigned to the fact that he's now a defensive black hole no matter where they put him.

 

I also like the idea of getting Yelich back in LF. For all the talk about Grisham being LF only, he sure passed the eye-ball test in RF when I was watching (outside of one unfortunate play at the end). DRS had him at +3 (in only 112 innings) and UZR/150 had him at an eye-popping +28.0. Sure...too few innings to really mean anything...but if you want to move Yelich to left and play Grisham/Gamel in right...the numbers sure back up doing that.

[MrTPlush]

That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.

 

Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.

 

Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either. Hiura pretty much struggles with everything on defense and has no arm or range. He struggles to field a ball right next to him and can't get to anything away from him. Weeks could turn DPs confidently, had some range, and had a strong arm. Hiura had 16 errors in a half season. If he played every game he would have amassed 30+ errors. That is really bad before even considering how many plays he can't even attempt to make because of a lack of range/arm.

 

Hiura is probably closer to the worst 2B defender in history than he is to having the defense of Weeks/Gennett...and that is really sad because neither of those guys were very good defensively.

 

On a different note Bref has projections that include a reliability percentage. Yelich to hit .961 OPS (86%). Shaw to hit .769 OPS (82%). Projections are just silly in such an insanely flukey sport. Nothing ever seems to make sense.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura is still young and can definitely improve at 2b. What we saw last year isn't what we'll get for the next 5-6 years defensively. That said...he definitely has some work to do and I'm sure he knows that. I hope that's a point of emphasis for him this offseason.

[monty57]

Braun as a -13.2 defensively is hard to see. I wonder what that number becomes with a move to 1B?

 

With the Brewers declining Thames' option, that was the first thing I thought when I saw the -13.2. With Grisham and Gamel on the roster and no viable 1B alternatives, it makes sense to move Braun to 1B for his last season as a Brewer. If they're going to do that, I hope they've already told him and he's already practicing, and I hope that they just let him play first and don't bounce him around.

 

Yelich, Cain, Grisham/Gamel in the OF with Braun at 1B leaves one less hole to fill via free agency or trade this offseason and frees up some cash to upgrade elsewhere. I don't look forward to the right side of the infield defense of Huira and Braun, but it might be out best alternative. Heck, if he puts all of his offseason into practicing first base, maybe he'll only be really bad and not historically awful.

[homer]

That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.

 

Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.

 

Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either.

 

Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.

[DHonks]

That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.

 

Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.

 

Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either. Hiura pretty much struggles with everything on defense and has no arm or range. He struggles to field a ball right next to him and can't get to anything away from him. Weeks could turn DPs confidently, had some range, and had a strong arm. Hiura had 16 errors in a half season. If he played every game he would have amassed 30+ errors. That is really bad before even considering how many plays he can't even attempt to make because of a lack of range/arm.

 

Hiura is probably closer to the worst 2B defender in history than he is to having the defense of Weeks/Gennett...and that is really sad because neither of those guys were very good defensively.

 

On a different note Bref has projections that include a reliability percentage. Yelich to hit .961 OPS (86%). Shaw to hit .769 OPS (82%). Projections are just silly in such an insanely flukey sport. Nothing ever seems to make sense.

 

Weeks couldn’t field, had little throwing accuracy, and missed countless throws at first when covering bunts. I always hoped he would get better since he had decent arm strength, but his poor mechanics and footwork killed those hopes. Hiura has a stronger arm than advertised, but needs to work on accuracy. I can’t recall him with many fielding mistakes...weren’t they mostly throwing?