Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year

[monty57]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

 

Super Two cutoff point is the lowest ever, and Josh Hader will be eligible for arby MLBTraderumors expects he'll get substantially more than the $3.65M Knebel received when he was Super Two.

[JohnBriggs12]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

 

Super Two cutoff point is the lowest ever, and Josh Hader will be eligible for arby MLBTraderumors expects he'll get substantially more than the $3.65M Knebel received when he was Super Two.

 

Not good news for a team that's trying to make room for multiple mid to upper level FA. Probably moves up by a year the timeline for dealing him. I wouldn't expect it this offseason but next year it becomes a real possibility.

[RollieTime]

I’m thinking his salary will be in the neighborhood of $6 million. The highest salary ever for a first time arby eligible relief pitcher was Jonathan Papelbon in 2009 for $6.25 million. Hader will have a real shot at breaking that record.

[MrTPlush]

I’m thinking his salary will be in the neighborhood of $6 million. The highest salary ever for a first time arby eligible relief pitcher was Jonathan Papelbon in 2009 for $6.25 million. Hader will have a real shot at breaking that record.

 

He doesn't have the saves so quite unlikely, last I knew the arbitration process still heavily favors the saves stat.

[KeithStone53151]

The best comp I can find is Kenley Jansen, but it's an old comp. He got $4.3 million as a super 2 after the 2013 season. Dodgers filed at 3.5 and Jansen filed at 5. Hader probably will get in the $4.5-5 million range based on Jansen.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

[KeithStone53151]

Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

 

He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.

[JohnBriggs12]

Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

 

He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.

 

If his production doesn't slip, his arby figures will balloon rapidly after this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is brutal to Milw and payroll. Youre looking at what was probably 1mil this year to 6mil now. Instead of 6mil in '21 that number will be closer to 11mil. 17.5 instead of 10, 22 instead 16.

Of course that's relying he continues being RP of the year. So yes the reality is he'll be traded a year sooner. Probably 2years now left with him as a Brewer.

 

Or, the Brewers trade him now for something massive and let that problem manifest for another team.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

 

He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.

 

Thanks. That's what I thought. 4 arb years will be expensive but maybe it would motivate the Brewers to work out an extension since they will have to pay him quite a bit in his last two years of arby anyways.

[MrTPlush]

Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

 

He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.

 

Thanks. That's what I thought. 4 arb years will be expensive but maybe it would motivate the Brewers to work out an extension since they will have to pay him quite a bit in his last two years of arby anyways.

 

I don't think dropping $50mil+ on Hader is really a move a small market should be doing. Take him year by year...if he is incredibly productive for the next 4 years just be friggen pumped that happened. Relief pitchers are much to fickle for us to hand them mega contracts.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.

[MadThinker88]

I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.

 

I agree its not doomsday or problematic for 2020.

But a 4th yr at arbitration means salary possibly in the neighborhood $18 to $25M for 2023. That is a large chunk & it could make things difficult at that point...

[clancyphile]

This is brutal to Milw and payroll. Youre looking at what was probably 1mil this year to 6mil now. Instead of 6mil in '21 that number will be closer to 11mil. 17.5 instead of 10, 22 instead 16.

Of course that's relying he continues being RP of the year. So yes the reality is he'll be traded a year sooner. Probably 2years now left with him as a Brewer.

 

Or, the Brewers trade him now for something massive and let that problem manifest for another team.

 

That does look like the situation now...

 

The presence of QTC, Angel Perdomo, and Clayton Andrews does mitigate the risk, and Brent Suter can also fill the multi-inning role and be very reliable in his own way - not the eye-popping K numbers.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.

 

I agree its not doomsday or problematic for 2020.

But a 4th yr at arbitration means salary possibly in the neighborhood $18 to $25M for 2023. That is a large chunk & it could make things difficult at that point...

 

$6 mil a year for back to back NL reliever of the year. I will take it. Granted next years results aren’t a sure thing. Things could be much worse than this. Agree with Sir Mr Plush about not signing him long term. Rather pay the premiums per year without being bogged down.

[3and2Fastball]

All the more reason to sell high on him now.

[Oxy]

All the more reason to sell high on him now.

 

July was the time...now is the next best time. We need a haul of youngsters.

[torts]

get him in a deal to buy out those arb years

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

 

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

get him in a deal to buy out those arb years

 

I'm not sure I even want that though. Tying up that kind of money in such a volatile position is a real big risk for MKE. You could have late-stage Gagne on your hands in 3 years. And that deal would have to be a monster for him to walk away from arb/a year of FA. He holds all the cards now. Doing that made more sense for him before he got Super Two.

[Jopal78]

All the more reason to sell high on him now.

 

July was the time...now is the next best time. We need a haul of youngsters.

 

Since 2018 the Brewers have won more games (185) than all but two other NL teams (LAD 198 and ATL 187). Being a Brewers fan, I've never really seen one before but based on their record since '18 this has all the looks of a team being in the midst of what is typically referred to as a 'window for contending'. It makes zero sense to suggest trading your best overall pitcher during a 'window for contending' especially with multiple years of team control remaining.

 

Secondly, talent costs money. Teams with more limited payrolls face some tough choices as their roster is laden with talented players and only so much pay to go around. That is why they moved on from Anderson and Thames, two quality major league players. From a team budgetary perspective its too bad Hader struck it rich a season early, but it cannot comes a surprise to the team brass that they will have to pay him a load of cash for his services going forward.

[josh]

talent costs money

 

Does it? It's true that you can spend money to get talent. But you can also get talent without spending a lot of money. A small market team needs to build around that. One of the most exciting features of the org these past couple of years is that they seem to have gotten better at it.

[wntrtxn21]

I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

 

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.

 

The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

 

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.

 

The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.

Every trade since then for RPs has resulted in far lesser returns and it was an admitted overpay by Theo at the time but they bit the bullet and did it because they needed the elite relief option to win a WS. Torres also has hit his like 99th percentile outcome, he was in the high teens/20s of top prospects in baseball at the time and was hitting .250 with only 9 HRs in A ball. He wasn’t killing it down there.

 

There’s no doubt we’d get a great return for Hader but I don’t think we can expect a better outcome than what Torres has become for him or really all that much larger of a return. Top ~20 prospect in baseball, top 100 prospect and a major league pitcher was the return. Torres, McKinney and Warren. Maybe we get another prospect who isn’t top 75 or so or another major league bullpen piece that is a project or something. But that seems like the rough framework when you factor in Hader’s salary moving forward, relief pitcher volatility, etc.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

 

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.

 

The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.

 

 

To counter that though, Ken Giles brought Vince Velasquez and 3 nobodys. But a Vince Velasquez type of headliner in a Hader deal would be the starting point.

6mil~ish isn't the moving force this year. I'd sit tight with him this year and go from there, but what happens is his FG value is about 20mil as a RP production 4yrs control but with cost you kinda go from 60mil surplus value to below 50 next season. And the value now is RP of the year value. A poor season or injury may drop that significantly. So something in the lines of a Top 20 prospect now, down to a top 50 prospect with remaining the same value. It worsens and you're in that top 75-125 discussion. Now, that's on an offseason value. Trade Deadline value is fluctional, but now we're talking, "We're not in the Playoff chase," something you're expecting to be involved in for another 2years or more?