Game 10: Panthers @ Packers - Sunday, November 10th, 3:25PM

[adambr2]

I...do not get that call.

 

Simple. On the road, TD wins it instead of ties it. Unconventional, but not without logic. Analytically not much difference between going for 1 or 2 anyway with a likely slight advantage to going for 2.

 

It looks stupid now but would look genius if it had worked and they end up winning 25-24. One of those calls that is totally dependent on whether it works or not. I'd tend to trust my offense picking up two yards against our D too.

 

 

And that's why I get that call vs the go for a TD AT home with 2secs left in the first half. Home/Away playcalling. Considering how the game had played out to that moment, to call go for it would indicate to me you didn't believe your defense could stop them nor could your offense score enough more with a 10pt lead. I hope this is a 1st yr coach blunder and he learns from it.

 

I honestly don't feel too strongly either way. Coaches have done it both ways and get criticized either way if they're wrong. The home/away thing does matter as you say but they never should have even had to decide. I wish they hadn't bled so much clock on the last drive and then it wouldn't have mattered.

[MrTPlush]

Personally I never put much emotion into Packers games/seasons these days. After they destroyed years and years of Rodgers and disappointing endings to seasons I just don’t expect much anymore. I hope they put together another special season before Rodgers is done, but wow they have really messed that up so far.

 

On another note I don’t think he got in. It looked misleading cause his body got so far, but he had that ball tucked into his body. One angle made him look a solid 1/4 yard short. I think it was the left side shot if looking toward the end zone.

[lcbj68c]

The way I see it, why be cautious? At this point if they go get knocked around in the 2nd round of the playoffs what do people have to complain about? 6-8 win predictions were pretty valid. It's like people forget this team hasn't made the playoffs in 3 years. This was not a team that was supposed to push for the NFC title by most realistic perspectives. Winning their division is a successful season.

 

The only team in the NFC that clearly looks better is San Francisco and they play them in 2 weeks.

 

Spot on. It's better to overachieve and enjoy more moments over the entire body of work. They can 14-2 and get blasted at home in the divisional round and it won't sap an ounce of joy from where they should have been when you looked at things on June 1.

[brewcrewdue80]

Who made the hit on CMC to end it? Fackrell?

 

I thought initially it was one of the Smith's and then Fackrell completed the tackle. That OL almost pushed him across, which somewhere I thought that would be a penalty. The guy physically bear-hugged and spun him forward. That which I thought we were penalized earlier this season for? I think in a pile pushing forward is fine, but physically hands on and doing so wasn't allowed?

 

Oh I wasn't near my laptop when it happened but King certainly was pushed off worse than Lazard's Off PI and not called. They acted like it was the footing, but 3yards of separation happened by the pushoff.

[lcbj68c]

No drama if we had kicked the FG to end the 1st half.

That’s all I was thinking on that last drive.

 

It simply can't be assumed that everything plays out the exact same in the second half. Different deficits, different game plans, everything. It's like in baseball when a guy gets caught stealing to end an inning and then the guy at the plate leads off the next inning with a HR and people are upset. But you just don't know how it might have played out differently.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

No drama if we had kicked the FG to end the 1st half.

That’s all I was thinking on that last drive.

 

It simply can't be assumed that everything plays out the exact same in the second half. Different deficits, different game plans, everything. It's like in baseball when a guy gets caught stealing to end an inning and then the guy at the plate leads off the next inning with a HR and people are upset. But you just don't know how it might have played out differently.

 

True, but 10pt lead and Jones/Williams running plays called that gashed Carolina's D for chunks of yards would be about the same of what really happened.

 

As to your other reply, I think they bled the clock to end the 1st half because A. they intended to score on any of the previous playcalls. B. You don't want to give Carolina the ball back with more time and TOs, keeping the momentum that should have been points on the board.

[adambr2]

Who made the hit on CMC to end it? Fackrell?

 

I thought initially it was one of the Smith's and then Fackrell completed the tackle. That OL almost pushed him across, which somewhere I thought that would be a penalty. The guy physically bear-hugged and spun him forward. That which I thought we were penalized earlier this season for? I think in a pile pushing forward is fine, but physically hands on and doing so wasn't allowed?

 

Oh I wasn't near my laptop when it happened but King certainly was pushed off worse than Lazard's Off PI and not called. They acted like it was the footing, but 3yards of separation happened by the pushoff.

 

I think it *used* to be a penalty? Or maybe it actually is a penalty and just never gets called? In any event I didn't expect a flag as you never see them call that carry. When he did I personally thought CMC broke the plane, but there was just no way to tell for sure. I'm glad they did not rule it a touchdown on the field as I am certain it would have remained a touchdown.

[OldHeidelberg]

No drama if we had kicked the FG to end the 1st half.

 

 

Yeah that was the wrong call but lots of coaches probably make it now. Not having the upside of them starting a drive from the 1 if you fail, seems like the percentages are bad going for it there, 3 points aren't nothing. But when we got the FG on their dumb illegal formation call I felt it evened out.

 

Nice win, 8-2 at the bye, 5-1 vs nfc and 3-0 vs North. Coaches need to get back to work this week.

[adambr2]

I get it. But I like to try to leave 25-30 seconds to play with in that situation, not carry it too close to :00. Enough time to let you throw a few times to the endzone if that exact situation arises and a defensive penalty gets you a first, but not enough time that they're going to try to do something when they get it back. You hate to not score thetr because you ran out of time when you had plenty of it and it was entirely within your control.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It didn't bother me even after the fact. You are at home and up by 4 and get the ball. The downside to getting stuffed wasn't that bad, honestly seems only marginally worse than kicking a FG. If you get it, Carolina is going to the locker room totally deflated. I'd do it again.

[nodakfan17]

No drama if we had kicked the FG to end the 1st half.

That’s all I was thinking on that last drive.

 

It simply can't be assumed that everything plays out the exact same in the second half. Different deficits, different game plans, everything. It's like in baseball when a guy gets caught stealing to end an inning and then the guy at the plate leads off the next inning with a HR and people are upset. But you just don't know how it might have played out differently.

My personal read on the situation is as follows:

 

Is this going to be a shootout? Then go for it.

Is this going to be a low scoring game? Take the points.

 

In today’s NFL, I think 14-10 would constitute a low scoring game where points are at a premium.

[lcbj68c]

Packers were around 86% for playoffs, I think with this win and LAR losing to Pitt they are awfully close to 100.

 

91% before the game, though I reckon there are a few differing metrics to the calculation?

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/packersstandings.html

 

I don't know what LAR losing means for the calculator...but the best case scenario seems to include the Vikings losing.

 

They are at 96% alone with their win vs the Panthers. A Vikings loss puts it at 97%

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/packerswhatif.html

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Quality win today against the solid team. Defense was gashed a little, but had good pressure on the QB, and sacks and turnovers at the right time. This team is 8-2, and now in the driver's seat for a playoff spot. After seeing the Saints and Rams fall to lesser teams today, I'll take a win any way you can get it in this league. This team is every bit deserving of its record.

[adambr2]

Cowboys reminding everybody that they're not very good.

[adambr2]

My personal read on the situation is as follows:

 

Is this going to be a shootout? Then go for it.

Is this going to be a low scoring game? Take the points.

 

In today’s NFL, I think 14-10 would constitute a low scoring game where points are at a premium.

 

14-10 is a 28-20 pace, with the FG it's a 34-20 pace, and I think the average NFL over/under is in the high 40s. I don't think 14-10 halftime constitutes a low scoring game. But I do agree about playing the situation. 7-0, take the points, 28-24, go for it.

[lcbj68c]

Cowboys reminding everybody that they're not very good.

 

Or that it's a 60 minute football game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cowboys reminding everybody that they're not very good.

 

Vikings are doing a pretty great job of showing a national audience that they, too, are just OK.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Seems like two pretty good teams playing each other closely.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know what to think of Dallas, they sucked a lot last year but came on at the end and looked pretty good. They've looked awful and solid. Minnesota is barely worse than the Packers if at all. I think their defense is better and Cook is amazing but I've never been a huge fan of Cousins. It seems like they should be better than they are. But I don't see a lot of separation between Minn and GB. It might just be Rodgers.

 

Ultimately I think Dallas isn't good enough or at least too inconsistent to go anywhere but they're still explosive enough sometime that I don't really want to play them. A game with Minnesota seems dependent on where it's played.

[MrTPlush]

Smith #91 was the big guy to come up with the play at the end. He had the legs of CMC to stop the lineman from taking him in...noticed that on the halftime replay of the night recap.

[LouisEly]

Who made the hit on CMC to end it? Fackrell?

 

I thought initially it was one of the Smith's and then Fackrell completed the tackle. That OL almost pushed him across, which somewhere I thought that would be a penalty. The guy physically bear-hugged and spun him forward. That which I thought we were penalized earlier this season for? I think in a pile pushing forward is fine, but physically hands on and doing so wasn't allowed?

 

Oh I wasn't near my laptop when it happened but King certainly was pushed off worse than Lazard's Off PI and not called. They acted like it was the footing, but 3yards of separation happened by the pushoff.

 

I think it *used* to be a penalty? Or maybe it actually is a penalty and just never gets called? In any event I didn't expect a flag as you never see them call that carry. When he did I personally thought CMC broke the plane, but there was just no way to tell for sure. I'm glad they did not rule it a touchdown on the field as I am certain it would have remained a touchdown.

Wasn't a penalty earlier this year when Dalton Risner grabbed Phillip Lindsay and yanked him into the end zone, so I assume it isn't a penalty.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know what to think of Dallas, they sucked a lot last year but came on at the end and looked pretty good. They've looked awful and solid. Minnesota is barely worse than the Packers if at all. I think their defense is better and Cook is amazing but I've never been a huge fan of Cousins. It seems like they should be better than they are. But I don't see a lot of separation between Minn and GB. It might just be Rodgers.

 

Ultimately I think Dallas isn't good enough or at least too inconsistent to go anywhere but they're still explosive enough sometime that I don't really want to play them. A game with Minnesota seems dependent on where it's played.

 

Dallas could sure help the Packers' NFC North chances by knocking off the Vikings tonight. I don't know if there are really any truly elite teams in the NFL this year. The Saints looked like trash today against the Falcons, and the Rams were downright terrible against the Steelers. These two teams playing right now I would call solid playoff contenders, but nowhere near elite level. It will be interesting to see how the 49ers handle playing a good squad in the Seahawks tomorrow night. Finally a decent Monday night game.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Assisting a runner is definitely a penalty and has always been very selectively called.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Seattle has been eeking out a bunch of crappy wins. Wilson is the MVP but they've been ridiculous, winning on final drives or in OT all year...that just feels like a .500 team that is due for some rebalancing. Their defense isn't good like it once was either. They're obviously a decent team but I wouldn't be really surprised if SF beats them up. If Seattle does win I think it's clear then the NFC is really wide open.

 

I also like the Packers chances to compete with SF. I don't really expect them to win but it's not an offense that should run all over us. It SHOULD be a fun game to watch. SF's schedule is also probably the hardest in the league on the back end. If the Packers do win things are looking really really good.

[adambr2]

Cowboys reminding everybody that they're not very good.

 

Or that it's a 60 minute football game.

 

They're also still not that good.