Nick Castellanos

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've said this before, but he's not going to sign anywhere that wants him to play 3b. He wants to be an outfielder.

 

Pretty sure that he recently said he'd be willing to play corner infield. Of course, that could have simply been to increase his marketability. But I agree, that ship has likely sailed after signing Garcia, Smoak and Gyorko.

[wntrtxn21]

I've said this before, but he's not going to sign anywhere that wants him to play 3b. He wants to be an outfielder.

 

Pretty sure that he recently said he'd be willing to play corner infield. Of course, that could have simply been to increase his marketability. But I agree, that ship has likely sailed after signing Garcia, Smoak and Gyorko.

 

Castellanos said he would be willing to move to firstbase later in his career after he couldn't play OF anymore.

[TJseven7]

I've said this before, but he's not going to sign anywhere that wants him to play 3b. He wants to be an outfielder.

 

Pretty sure that he recently said he'd be willing to play corner infield. Of course, that could have simply been to increase his marketability. But I agree, that ship has likely sailed after signing Garcia, Smoak and Gyorko.

 

Castellanos said he would be willing to move to firstbase later in his career after he couldn't play OF anymore.

 

He never could to begin with. Santana's numbers in the OF are better.

[RollieTime]

As unlikely as it is, I still hope we find a way to bring Castellanos in. With Cain, Yelich, and Garcia in the outfield with Braun seeing some time in the outfield and at first base, I still feel like there is room for Castellanos on this roster. Injuries will arise, Cain and Yelich will both need 10-15 days off during the season to stay healthy, Braun will start 110 games or so at the most. Garcia will need a few days off as well. It might be a little bit of a crunch this season, but get that big bat locked up now for 5 years (who is still only 27 years old!) that honestly carries much less risk with him than others on the free agent market with playing 148 games or more 5/6 seasons and being so young while hitting free agency.

 

He could be signed to a 6 year deal and that will STILL only take him through his age 33 season. He is one of those value targets that could slot into your 3 or 4 hole for 5+ years while making under $20 million. He could also still mature as a player and improve since he is just entering his prime.

 

I really hope we can bring in Castellanos. Yelich, Cain, Garcia, and Castellanos could all realistically get 500 atbats this season. Braun can get 400 with playing a little time in the outfield, starting 60 games at first, and pinch hitting/DHing. It’s never a bad option to have a good bench of one of Garcia/Braun/Yelich/Castellanos on the bench with guys like Smoak Sogard, or Gyorko to pinch hit as well. The quality and depth of our hitters would be quite impressive up and down the roster.

 

And just for fun and to give it a little bit more of a realistic vibe, Castellanos and Garcia both play right field. Castellanos starts the game and is removed after the 7th or 8th inning or moved to first? Maybe Stearns was planning on Castellanos all along!

 

CF Cain

2B Hiura

LF Yelich

RF Castellanos/Garcia late game substitution

C Narvaez

1B Braun

SS Urias

3B Gyorko/Sogard

P

 

I could see that lineup hanging with any of the other top lineups in the game. Hopefully Castellanos is still in play for us. With Donaldson off the board, Castellanos could be the next domino to fall. Hopefully it’s to the Brewers. His entire career has been in the upper Midwest as well (Detroit/Chicago). Maybe he is one of those guys that would like to stay in the upper Midwest. Location does play a factor for some players.

[TURBO]

So we signed Garcia to only play RF from the 7th or 8th inning on? Gamel can do that for free.

 

Hmmm, I think we could have spent his money eles where if that is the case.

[adambr2]

Yeah Garcia was not signed to be a late game sub. Never say never, because we've been unconventional about roster construction before, but I doubt Castellanos is in play for us.

[wntrtxn21]

Most people don't know that Garcia's numbers were very close to Castellanos' numbers last year. Stearns went the cheaper route with Garcia, so I seriously doubt he would invest the big money and long term deal in Castellanos.

Castellanos: 615 ABs - .289/.337 - 27 HRs - 73 RBI

Garcia: 489 ABs - .282/.332 - 20 HRs - 72 RBI

[TJseven7]

Most people don't know that Garcia's numbers were very close to Castellanos' numbers last year. Stearns went the cheaper route with Garcia, so I seriously doubt he would invest the big money and long term deal in Castellanos.

Castellanos: 615 ABs - .289/.337 - 27 HRs - 73 RBI

Garcia: 489 ABs - .282/.332 - 20 HRs - 72 RBI

 

Garcia can also play a defensive position other than DH.

[RollieTime]

I didn’t mean it as a strictly late game substitution. That would be a best case scenario with everybody healthy and playing every single day, which won’t happen. They would all get 500+ at bats filling in for injuries and off days. It was more of just an idea on days that Castellanos, Yelich, and Cain all play that he can come in late.

 

Why is it that someone can make a post here now and people take one sentence out of it the whole post and run with it? Sheesh. Not sure why you all skipped over the part about him still getting 500 at bats in my post. If he’s strictly a late game sub, obviously he wouldn’t even sniff 500 at bats. But it was more of an idea of something they can do a few times per month to shore up the defense late on days Garcia isn’t starting and Yelich and Cain are also all starting. Gamel and Grisham got over 450 at bats combined last season. And that was with a full time Braun, Yelich, and Cain in the outfield. If you all think that we couldn’t realistically have 4 outfielders get 500 at bats each then that’s fine. But last year proved otherwise and I stand by what I said. Castellanos would make us better and the at bats will sort itself out. It always does. And Garcia being a good defensive RF, the same position that Castellanos would play with us, late game substituting is a realistic option to do sometimes.

[RollieTime]

If teams are hesitant to give Castellanos a long term deal, could the Brewers offer a “prove it” deal to see if his time with the Cubs is him maturing more as a player or if he just had a nice hot stretch?

 

Could he be had at something like 1 year for $17 million or so? I would honestly prefer locking him up on a multi year deal through his prime, pairing a big bat with Yelich for the foreseeable future in the middle of the lineup, but if the offers just aren’t there for him, I would love to add that bat to the lineup for 2020.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

The Cubs signed Steven Souza today (seems like a decent low risk gamble, he’s been hurt for 2 years but is allegedly healthy and his last full season was almost a 4 win player). But I’d assume that means they’re out on Castellanos. Guessing they’ll go Schwarber/Bryant/Heyward/Souza in the corners this year depending on matchups with Heyward, Happ and Almora in CF.

[Brewcrewin07]

The Reds are now the clear favorites to sign Castellanos...wonderful...NOT!

 

[adambr2]

Overrated.

[brewtank34]

The Reds are going for it. Cheers to them but the Central is going to be another blood bath this year.

[RollieTime]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

[TURBO]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

 

Looking forward to replies to your post.

 

I agree by the way.

[brewmann04]

I think this move would make the better than a lot care to admit.

[reillymcshane]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

Even with Castellanos, the Reds are a bit of a crap shoot. They have a lot of slightly odd parts that may or may not work.

 

The defense doesn't look very good. Moose at 2B. Senzel in CF. Where does Castellanos play? It might all gel just fine - but then again, it might not.

 

The club needs a couple of guys to rebound, including Joey Votto and Raisel Iglesias. I love Votto, but he really was not good last year. Was that a fluke? We will find out.

 

Also, the club needs guys like Senzel and Winker to emerge as first-tier starters. They are good, young hitters with a ton of promise and tools, but they still have to end up producing. And what is Aristides Aquino? I personally think his start last year was a fluke, but we shall see.

 

The rotation is really nice, but relief pitching is just okay (if Raisel Iglesias rebounds that's a huge deal). They lack depth here (but have a few nice guys at the back end - which is good to have).

 

I don't think the Reds have any big prospects on the horizon, but I could be wrong on that.

 

All in all, it's like I said, kind of an odd bag of stuff. They need a little luck, but could be very good (of course, a lot of teams can say that). Their rotation is really good, and a core of Votto, Suarez, Castellanos, Moose, Senzel, etc. is pretty good.

 

Should be an interesting year.

[Brewcrewin07]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

 

Looking forward to replies to your post.

 

I agree by the way.

 

I agree with this 100%...Reds would be my favorites anyway...Brewers would be at best, 3rd. Hope I'm wrong.

[sveumrules]

On paper the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs & Reds all look to be relatively evenly matched to this point. I won't be surprised by whichsoever of the 24 different first through fourth place combinations comes to pass at the end of the season. The only thing that would surprise me is PIT finishing anywhere but fifth.

 

ZIPS haven't been released for the Cubs yet, but if I added right the other three NLC contenders currently look like...

 

MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR

STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR

CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR

 

Castellanos has been between 2.5 to 3.0 WAR each of the last two seasons, but if he lands with CIN he isn't replacing a zero WAR guy, he's replacing some combination of Aquino/Winker/Ervin who are projected for 3.7 WAR between LF/RF, so probably like a 1.5 to 2.0 win upgrade.

[RollieTime]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

Even with Castellanos, the Reds are a bit of a crap shoot. They have a lot of slightly odd parts that may or may not work.

 

The defense doesn't look very good. Moose at 2B. Senzel in CF. Where does Castellanos play? It might all gel just fine - but then again, it might not.

 

The club needs a couple of guys to rebound, including Joey Votto and Raisel Iglesias. I love Votto, but he really was not good last year. Was that a fluke? We will find out.

 

Also, the club needs guys like Senzel and Winker to emerge as first-tier starters. They are good, young hitters with a ton of promise and tools, but they still have to end up producing. And what is Aristides Aquino? I personally think his start last year was a fluke, but we shall see.

 

The rotation is really nice, but relief pitching is just okay (if Raisel Iglesias rebounds that's a huge deal). They lack depth here (but have a few nice guys at the back end - which is good to have).

 

I don't think the Reds have any big prospects on the horizon, but I could be wrong on that.

 

All in all, it's like I said, kind of an odd bag of stuff. They need a little luck, but could be very good (of course, a lot of teams can say that). Their rotation is really good, and a core of Votto, Suarez, Castellanos, Moose, Senzel, etc. is pretty good.

 

Should be an interesting year.

 

I would say the Brewers are even in a worse position than the Reds are.

 

We brought in a rotation arm in Anderson who has hit 100 IP 2 times his last 10 years and Lindblom who is coming back from the KBO and struggled mightily in his small MLB sample. He is a complete wild card.

 

Our new shortstop (Urias) would be playing at a position that might not be his ideal position. But with his now wrist injury, we will be pivoting to... the worst hitter in the MLB the last two years who might need to play significant time again??

 

So we could look at a mostly everyday infield of Smoak (average defender, career .230 hitter) or Braun at a new position, Hiura (poor defender), Sogard or Arcia at SS (yikes), and Gyorko. Not to mention arguably the worst defensive catcher in the game to round it out.

 

You mentioned Votto needing to rebound, but I would say if he maintained what he did last year, which was still a .350+ OBP, slot him in the leadoff spot and you have guys like Castellanos, Moustakas, Suarez, Aquino, and Winker among others following him in the lineup, they are going to score a lot of runs. Votto is still better than what we have for 1B. And they definitely have the edge at 3B and SS if Arcia is what we are relying on. Moose isn’t exactly a bad 2B option either even if he struggles there defensively. But you know you’re getting a 30 homer middle of the order bat out of him.

 

Looking at the rosters, I would honestly say the Brewers have much more of a wild card roster than the Reds. And it’s not particularly close.

 

The modge podge of Smoak, moving Braun to a new position, needing a rebound from Cain, can Anderson stay healthy, will Lindblom’s KBO success carry over, will Hiura regress some offensively, needing a Gyorko rebound, is 2019 Sogard legit, can Narvaez learn to play defense, will Yelich come back healthy, can Arcia learn to hit a baseball, will Lauer take a step forward, is Burnes going to rebound, can Peralta learn how to effectively throw anything other than a fastball, is much much worse than trying to figure out how to get all your good hitters in the lineup like the Reds might struggle to do.

 

And then we have arguably the worst minor league system in the game.

 

I’m not saying the Brewers won’t be competitive, because I think they can be. Losing Urias is a big blow in that I feel like he was poised to have a coming out party of sorts this season and solidify himself as our everyday SS of the future, but with his health in jeopardy, knowing that we are looking at Sogard or Arcia and Gyorko as EVERYDAY guys, with a .230 career hitter at 1B, a low power CF that NEEDS to rebound, and the pitcher all in the lineup at once, this lineup could have serious issues scoring runs.

 

I know this makes me sound extremely pessimistic, which I am not because I am sure that some of these moves will pay off. But a lot will need to go right for this team to win something like 90-92 games to compete for the division.

[sveumrules]

But a lot will need to go right for this team to win something like 90-92 games to compete for the division.

 

Last year the Cardinals took the division with 91 wins. What have they done to improve?

 

Last year we won 89 games for a Wild Card. I'd imagine most posters would take the under on that win total for 2020.

 

Last year the Cubs won 84 games. I can't recall any notable improvements they've made this winter.

 

The Reds have been active, but they won 75 games last year. That's a lot of ground to make up.

 

There have been 80 playoff teams in the two wild card era, 11 of those teams (about 14%) won 75 or fewer games in the season prior to their postseason berth.

 

From the look of things now I don't think there is a 90 win team in the division & if someome does get there, a lot will inevitably have gone right.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

 

Nah, it's easy. Sure, they would certainly have the talent on paper to win the central. But ... that team continues to be a pile of mismatched trash until it proves it isn't. And I love Castellanos and I think he's primed for a Yelich-like break-out. It would seriously suck if he does it in a Reds uniform, and especially so making a salary that would be palatable to the Brewers.

 

The Reds have been active, but it's a weird group of players. Bauer got smacked around pretty good following the trade last year. Moose should be fine, but I think he's a guy that's been overrated by our fanbase a good bit. Most of their hitters, other than Votto, had career years last year are are primed for a negative regression.

 

They've certainly been active for the first time in a while, but time will tell if the "name" guys they picked up pay off. It will be a nice case study, as the Reds took an avenue of player acquisition that I think a lot of Brewer fans would like to see their team do, i.e. grab a bunch of easily recognizable names. The Brewers are doing things a much different way. It'll be fun to see which way is more successful.

[adambr2]

Sorry, I'm not seeing it with the Reds.

 

They made some nice supplementary additions (assuming they add Castellanos too), but too many are looking at their additions from a dollar amount perspective rather than what these guys really are for their career. Moose and Castellanos are nice guys to have in your lineup. They aren't guys you build your lineup around.

 

Blind test, the following five guys have a career OPS+ of 113, 101, 104, 104 and 104. Who are they?

 

In that order, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Justin Smoak, Avasail Garcia, Ryon Healy.

 

So what's the big deal with the first two guys other than name? They're surely not being signed for defense, at least certainly not if Moose is going to play 2nd.

 

They may have one of the worst defenses in baseball. Their rotation should be solid, but that was true last year. I think they may see some regression in their pitching, if anything.

 

They're still lacking for star power. I'll take Yelich and Hiura over anyone in their lineup.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Until the Reds actually make a jump and play winning baseball for a season, I'm not convinced anything they do puts them into contention - seems like everyone has been waiting on them to become a good team that competes for a playoff spot forever.

 

IMO they are the Mariners of the NL - a team that isn't afraid to make alot of moves but at the end of the day looks more like it's chasing its tail than building an organization that can consistently win.

 

As for the rest of the division, totally agreed that all of the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers have appeared to take a step back up to this point in the offseason. The Brewers appeared to have retooled their roster in a way that replaces guys they lost with a decent mix capable of meeting or even exceeding last year's offensive production. Pitching is still a question mark, however their staff wasn't exactly lights out last season and I'd argue they are less reliant on the younger more unpredictable arms than they were in 2019. The Cubs and Cards, on the other hand, still have holes to fill on their rosters - I'd expect the Cards to make another move or two to solidify their roster, while it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs go into 2020 with what they have or even trade Bryant or Contreras and view 2020 as a soft rebuilding year.

 

Castellanos can hit, but his ceiling appears to be that of a 3.0 WAR player who plays bad defense wherever he's stuck in the field on an NL club...I just don't see him as a fit for the Brewers with Garcia in the mix. It's interesting that he still isn't signed, though...