Where to Bat your Best Hitter

[CheezWizHed]

To help facilitate the discussion, I looked for the average number of PA per spot in the lineup. This data is old (2009), but I doubt the delta between position would change much:

 

NL:

1st - 763

2nd - 746

3rd - 728

4th - 711

5th - 696

6th - 681

7th - 662

8th - 643

9th - 622

[pacopete4]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

 

Looking at his splits, Cain’s OBP was north of .320 against RHP in 2019 which is the figure used for this exercise. I’m not sure exactly what you’re saying though. Any player on the team could hit into a double play I guess? I provided the facts and figures over a 162 game sample. I mean sure he could hit into a double play just like Hiura, Narvaez, anybody could. Yelich could also have it where he comes up 110 times with nobody on base anyway like stated previously hitting in the two hole. The numbers account for things like double plays and fielder’s choices built into the numbers.

 

Are you suggesting a guy like Hiura hitting second then because he strikes out at a high clip so there will be less double play opportunities? I’m not exactly following.

 

I think he's saying we should never have a runner on first base due to the possibility of the double play.

 

I'm saying my lasting memories from the last time Cain was in our lineup was a lot of weak balls hit at the second basemen and an OBP, no matter what arm the guy was throwing with, into the .320's. Hard pass on having that at the top of a lineup. I just don't think you'll see the Cain of old (2018) and more so see the Cain of the present.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

 

If Wong is one of the best on the base paths and Cain is no slouch to 1b I'd imagine turning a double play being hard to pull off. Pairing Wong Yelich together exploits for both a 90pt less OPS vs Lefties.(approximately for their careers) i truly believe we'll see Cain atop the order vs LHP and Yelich bat 2nd then. With whomever RHB vs LHP best #3. So in a perfect world with Yelich healthy 162 games there's about 36-40 games he's #2 and 122-126 games he's #3. If there's 18 PA difference for #2 vs #3 (post above)in a 162 game season what is it then? Like 10PAs? Arguing on Yelich batting order spot in a perfect world.

[igor67]

For some level of quantification a 20 point difference in OBP leads to a similar change in PAs. Which is to say a .350 OBP in the leadoff spot would create 16 fewer outs over the course of a season. This would mostly translate into extra appearances for the batting spot right afterwards, though you would also see a modest bump 2 batters down.

[CheezWizHed]

Probably part of the consideration is whether we have a DH or not. Having a pitcher (.100 OBP?) in the 9 hole makes more of an impact to Yeli at #2 than at #3. Kind of an interesting math problem honestly...

[jerichoholicninja]

There's just way too much overthinking involved in batting order. Yelich, Huira, and Wong should be the top 3 in whatever order to start the season.

[rickh150]

Yelich at 2 over 3

A few more at bats every season

Hate having best batter up with no one on and 2 outs... easy to pitch around him in the 1st.

Gives him a better shot and more options to run in the 1st.

Fairly good pinch hitter options at 9 (pitcher) gives him nice RBI opportunities in late innings.

[wallus]

I feel like your leadoff hitter is extremely important in the NL. It seems like there is a lot of instances with a runner in scoring position and 2 outs with the leadoff guy at the plate.

[wntrtxn21]

Yelich at 2 over 3

A few more at bats every season

Hate having best batter up with no one on and 2 outs... easy to pitch around him in the 1st.

Gives him a better shot and more options to run in the 1st.

Fairly good pinch hitter options at 9 (pitcher) gives him nice RBI opportunities in late innings.

 

Yelich at 3 over 2

Number of ABs over a season almost meaningless

Having two OBP guys ahead of him gives him more of a chance of an RBI and pitcher more prone to making a mistake pitch to him

If there are 2 outs and they pitch around him, then a runner is on with a good RBI guy (#4 hitter) at the plate

With 2 outs and he steals a base, then RISP with #4hitter up

Brewers #3 or #4 guy is probably going to be Hiura depending where Yelich hits

No matter what, it's a great option for CC to have.

[rickh150]

Yelich at 2 over 3

A few more at bats every season

Hate having best batter up with no one on and 2 outs... easy to pitch around him in the 1st.

Gives him a better shot and more options to run in the 1st.

Fairly good pinch hitter options at 9 (pitcher) gives him nice RBI opportunities in late innings.

 

Yelich at 3 over 2

Number of ABs over a season almost meaningless

Having two OBP guys ahead of him gives him more of a chance of an RBI and pitcher more prone to making a mistake pitch to him

If there are 2 outs and they pitch around him, then a runner is on with a good RBI guy (#4 hitter) at the plate

With 2 outs and he steals a base, then RISP with #4hitter up

Brewers #3 or #4 guy is probably going to be Hiura depending where Yelich hits

No matter what, it's a great option for CC to have.

 

Almost meaningless is still meaningful. It’s 20 at bats a season or 5 games of hitting. And we have all lived thru 2018 when one little game mattered.

I see Yelich as a run scorer too with his BB rate and speed. As he ages, I see him more as a 3.

For me, I liked Braun as 2 early in his career too when he could swipe 30 at bats with the ability to score from 1st on a gapper. Yelich feels the same.

Agreed that Cc has pretty great options.