Where to Bat your Best Hitter

[RollieTime]

I know there has been a lot of debate over the years about where to place the best hitter in your lineup. There was some discussion about it on MLB Network during the regular season where they presented this information and I figured it would be a good conversation to have here.

 

Below is a list of how many plate appearances there were in total from each spot in the order during the 2018 season.

 

Lineup Spot: Total PA/30: PA

1. 22,629: 754.3

2. 22,131: 737.7

3. 21,610: 720.3

4. 21,123: 704.1

5. 20,642: 688.1

6. 20,105: 670.2

7. 19,534: 651.1

8. 18,966: 632.2

9. 18,387: 612.9

 

Now, this next bit of information is based off of what an AVERAGE hitter during the season had for an OBP, which was .320. The below information is presented with your best hitter hitting second.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

32% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A on base.

68% chance Hitter X hits with bases empty.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 52 plate appearances during the season with a runner on base in the first inning.

 

Now, the next bit of information is also based off of what an average hitter had for an OBP, but the information is presented with your best hitter hitting third.

 

(1) Hitter A = .320 OBP

(2) Hitter B = .320 OBP

(3) Hitter X = Best Hitter

 

43% chance Hitter X hits with Hitter A OR B on base.

10% chance Hitter X hits with both Hitter A AND B on base.

 

Over the course of the season, Hitter X (best hitter) would have 70 plate appearances with one runner on base in the first inning plus 16 plate appearances with two runners on base in the first inning = 86 PA with at least one runner on base in the first inning. An increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd

 

Finally, the RBI totals among some of the best in the game through August 31st of this season relative to where they bat in the order.

 

Through August 31st

 

RBI: PA w/ runners on: Primary Batting Position

Josh Bell: 109: 292: 4th

Freddie Freeman: 109: 281: 3rd

Anthony Rendon: 109: 283: 3rd

José Abreu: 104: 301: 3rd

Cody Bellinger: 101: 296: 4th

Pete Alonso: 101: 278: 2nd

Mike Trout: 101: 254: 2nd

Christian Yelich: 89: 238: 2nd

 

Based on this information, I think it would make the most sense to have Yelich hitting 3rd. The increase of 34(!) plate appearances over the course of the season with at least one runner on base in the first inning alone by hitting 3rd instead of 2nd is HUGE. Especially in the first inning when most pitchers tend to have control issues and are trying to get a feel for their pitches early on.

 

You could even make a case for dropping Yelich to 4th, but dropping him from 2nd to 4th would drop his plate appearances by roughly 34 over the course of the season by doing so. I think dropping him from 2nd to 3rd and lowering his plate appearances by roughly 17 is okay since there would be a significant increase in opportunities to do damage in the first inning.

 

Also, keep in mind that the numbers posted above for plate appearances with runners on base is based off of a hitter with a .320 OBP. Get a couple guys like Grandal and Hiura in front of him with OBP’s over .350 and there would be an even higher amount of plate appearances with runners on base in the first inning.

 

Hopefully Cain has a nice bounce back season and can be the leadoff hitter of 2018, Hiura continues to produce and is in the two hole, and Yelich can get bumped down to third to get more opportunities to drive in runs to get early leads in games for our pitching staff.

 

Just a little tidbit on this. Your premise is a .320OB but HRs go towards the OB number. If you want your best hitter at #3, if those .320 guys are batting 1/2, what happens when 1 or 2 of them hits 40HRs? What about when combined Leadoff 30HR, 2nd to bat 40HRs or 70Combined before that best hitter?

 

Well my math at a leadoff with 30HRs and best hitter #2 is 28% vs 32. And #3 with 70HRs combined at 27.3% And I think with both bases occupied 7.64% if the multiple of both numbers is what figures that out?

 

In regards to the RBI/PAs with runners one/order batted: Can notice on Yelich's at #2, that's based on him playing less games there right? Which I guess to equal those stats out, you'd have to go on equation on what a 162 game projection?

 

Two of the top 3 in that with runners on base came from the 4th batting spot, even though that spot has 33less PAs in the season than #2.

 

So I think what this shows is you may want to bat your highest HR/PA #4 and your best batter after that #2. High OB #1 after that. Best batter after those figured out #3. If I go by that Yelich goes 4th. Hiura goes #2. I don't know exactly how 1/3 work as after Yelich and Hiura nobody else is an everyday player. Braun probably fills #3 with his OB/OPS combo from last season.

 

I can see your point about not having Yelich hit third if the guys in front of him are hitting 30-40 homers, but that isn’t something we need to worry about. If we had the Dodgers roster with Bellinger, Betts, Turner, Muncy, Seager, and Pederson to a point, then yeah, it would make sense to hit Yelich (or Bellinger) second or fourth. They have so many offensive threats that it’s easy to get good protection of each guy in the lineup with how loaded it is and they all deserve the most at bats possible.

 

That would be like us having Yelich, Prince, Hiura, and prime Braun all on the roster at one time. If we had that like the Dodgers do, then Yelich could hit second or fourth and the example you gave would make sense. But we have guys like Holt, Cain, Sogard, and Urias who would hit in front of Yelich. The most home runs any of them will hit would be 15 or so. Which means there will be a ton of runners on base if Yelich were to hit 3rd. And Hiura would be the guy protecting Yelich in the 4 hole.

[KeithStone53151]

Yelich should be hitting in the #2 spot, and the pitcher should be hitting in the #8 spot so there is a higher OBP in the lineup that is 2 spots ahead of Yelich for the majority of his at-bats.

 

Except when Woodruff pitches he should be batting cleanup

[monty57]

"Best hitter" on one team is different than "best hitter" on another, and some teams have more overall talent than others, so I think where to bat your "best hitter" depends on the make-up of your team.

 

The most important thing for me is that I like high-OBP guys at the top of the lineup. Others have mentioned that Cain's offensive drop-off last year (.395 OBP down to .325) really hurt the team, so the team should get a big boost if their lead-off hitter can get on base. Whether Cain "finds it" offensively, Braun becomes the leadoff man, or if we use a platoon from our middle-infield mix, we need to get better OBP from lead-off. After that, I'd put Hiura and Yelich in the 2 & 3 spots in either order. I'd probably prefer Hiura 2, Yelich 3, but I'm not too concerned either way.

 

We are going to have so many platoons and match-ups, it's hard to determine what the "normal" lineup is. As long as Hiura and Yelich are near the top of it, the rest will be a day-to-day thing.

[TJseven7]

Do we pay any mind to Hiura's bizzare splits?

 

They show themselves in the minors as well. Do we want him 3rd vs RHP and 5th vs LHP until numbers change or do we ignore the numbers. VS LHP we have Braun Garcia Cain and Yelich who should chime in before we get down to that next level of Gyorko Sogard Pina types.

[monty57]

I’d love Braun either leadoff or 2nd. The benefit to 2nd would be his tremendous ability to hit it up the middle could be used for hit-and-runs

 

Braun has been a 330 obp guy for the last 3 years. Smoak hit 200 and got on base as much.

 

If you aren't putting up north of 350 obp you shouldn't be in front of Yelich. I want Cain in the lead off spot vs LHP and Holt at lead off vs RHP. Yelich 2 and start the parade of Hiura Braun Garcia Smoak Narvaez depending on the matchup. Only time I'd even consider Braun ahead of Yelich is vs LHP.

 

Last year, only 50 players in baseball had an OBP .350 or higher, so less than two on each team. The Brewers had two, Yelich (who can't bat ahead of himself) and Grandal who is no longer on the team. The third highest OBP on the team went to Braun at .343.

 

Cain regaining his form will be the best thing for the offense this season. If that doesn't happen, Braun wouldn't be the worst option for leadoff, nor would a platoon such as the one you mentioned.

[SeaBass]

Cain's 2019 post all-star slash: 221 ABs, .281 AVG, .350 OBP, .403 SLG, .753 OPS

 

Yeah it's not the .395 OBP he posted in 2018 but he was already rebounding towards his career norms.

[wallus]

Cain's 2019 post all-star slash: 221 ABs, .281 AVG, .350 OBP, .403 SLG, .753 OPS

 

Yeah it's not the .395 OBP he posted in 2018 but he was already rebounding towards his career norms.

 

I was clamoring for Cain to get more days off last season and I hope he does this year. I think with Garcia on board we can get do it hopefully.

[clancyphile]

Actually, I'd go Sogard/Hiura in front of Yelich against left-handers and Holt/Hiura in front against righties.

 

Best of all worlds, IMO.

[Ennder]

Without accounting for platoons and assuming guys are generally healthy the best lineup we can probably put out there is going to be Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smoak, Narvaez, Braun rest of the guys. Yelich and Hiura are clearly the best hitters on the team so are the core at 2/3. Cain profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter with the high OBP and not so great slugging. Narvaez and Smoak are probably the next best hitters on the team with Braun or Garcia being neck and neck for the next best. Then you get into the platoon muck from that point on.

[clancyphile]

Without accounting for platoons and assuming guys are generally healthy the best lineup we can probably put out there is going to be Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smoak, Narvaez, Braun rest of the guys. Yelich and Hiura are clearly the best hitters on the team so are the core at 2/3. Cain profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter with the high OBP and not so great slugging. Narvaez and Smoak are probably the next best hitters on the team with Braun or Garcia being neck and neck for the next best. Then you get into the platoon muck from that point on.

 

I'm for having Yelich at the 3 spot, ideally with two runners on base.

 

So, I'd go Sogard, Cain, Yelich against lefties, maybe go Holt, Cain, Yelich against righties.

 

It drove me crazy to see Thames batting leadoff or second so often - wasted a lot of power.

[brewcrewdue80]

Without accounting for platoons and assuming guys are generally healthy the best lineup we can probably put out there is going to be Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smoak, Narvaez, Braun rest of the guys. Yelich and Hiura are clearly the best hitters on the team so are the core at 2/3. Cain profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter with the high OBP and not so great slugging. Narvaez and Smoak are probably the next best hitters on the team with Braun or Garcia being neck and neck for the next best. Then you get into the platoon muck from that point on.

 

I'm for having Yelich at the 3 spot, ideally with two runners on base.

 

So, I'd go Sogard, Cain, Yelich against lefties, maybe go Holt, Cain, Yelich against righties.

 

It drove me crazy to see Thames batting leadoff or second so often - wasted a lot of power.

 

Putting that lineup together that would leave Hiura 4, Smoak 5, Braun/Garcia 6, Narvaez/Pina 7, SS/3b 8th? I just think about that 4-7 and too much power giving up vs a Sogard OB ability. Putting that lineup together does leave me with a Yelich/Hiura interchangeable 2/3 platoon or just Yelich 2 Hiura fairly everyday. 4 of Smoak being Switch hitter. Maybe the platoon idea has merit? Say days Braun plays 1b. Hiura 2 Yelich 3, Braun 4. Sogard or Urias would leadoff that day? Narvaez 5th. Cain 6? Man it is so interchanging these IGT takes this season are going to a blast pregame.

[TJseven7]

I’d love Braun either leadoff or 2nd. The benefit to 2nd would be his tremendous ability to hit it up the middle could be used for hit-and-runs

 

Braun has been a 330 obp guy for the last 3 years. Smoak hit 200 and got on base as much.

 

If you aren't putting up north of 350 obp you shouldn't be in front of Yelich. I want Cain in the lead off spot vs LHP and Holt at lead off vs RHP. Yelich 2 and start the parade of Hiura Braun Garcia Smoak Narvaez depending on the matchup. Only time I'd even consider Braun ahead of Yelich is vs LHP.

 

Last year, only 50 players in baseball had an OBP .350 or higher, so less than two on each team. The Brewers had two, Yelich (who can't bat ahead of himself) and Grandal who is no longer on the team. The third highest OBP on the team went to Braun at .343.

 

Cain regaining his form will be the best thing for the offense this season. If that doesn't happen, Braun wouldn't be the worst option for leadoff, nor would a platoon such as the one you mentioned.

 

I get that with Braun but you also have Holt who is coming off b2b 360s and 350 390 vs RHP. Cains career vs LHP is 367.

 

I don't see why you need to push Braun to the 1 hole because there are better options who don't HIT HRs. Like at all.

[Lathund]

Without accounting for platoons and assuming guys are generally healthy the best lineup we can probably put out there is going to be Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smoak, Narvaez, Braun rest of the guys. Yelich and Hiura are clearly the best hitters on the team so are the core at 2/3. Cain profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter with the high OBP and not so great slugging. Narvaez and Smoak are probably the next best hitters on the team with Braun or Garcia being neck and neck for the next best. Then you get into the platoon muck from that point on.

 

I'm for having Yelich at the 3 spot, ideally with two runners on base.

 

So, I'd go Sogard, Cain, Yelich against lefties, maybe go Holt, Cain, Yelich against righties.

 

It drove me crazy to see Thames batting leadoff or second so often - wasted a lot of power.

 

If you want to maximize opportunities with runners on, 4th (Highest average # of runners on per page) and 5th (Most opportunities with multiple runners on) are where you put Yelich. Which is not a good idea, because you waste his on-base ability for the hitters who end up in front of him and he loses 35-50 PAs compared to 2nd. Part of why that is, is because when batting 3rd there is only one possible configuration (For the 1st inning ofc) that gets you 2 runners on, and of course no way to get 3. For the 5th spot to have 2 runners on, you "only" need a 500 OBP (And avoiding double plays.. and HRs I suppose) in front of him which happens relatively often. The 3rd spot has the disadvantage of seeing 2 outs with nobody on more often than any other spot in the order, which negates a lot of the extra RBI oportunities he gets from moving from 2nd to 3rd.

 

Anyway, my take is still the same as it was earlier in the thread; Batting order matters very little beyond the basics of hitting your best hitters early and your worst late. But small benefit or not, every type of simulation I've seen (Whether using actual batters, clones, hypothetical batters, stereotypical batting position batters etc) says the same thing; Your best hitter, especially if it's someone with both power and OBP, should bat 2nd. If your best hitter has the profile of a Mike Moustakas or Javy Baez (i.e power but low OBP) maybe you should bat him 4th. And if your team is stacked with great hitters 1-5, consider having your best hitter lead off.

 

But the quality of team part is relevant for other situations too. Let's look at batting your best hitter (We'll call him Christian Yelich) 3rd; who do you put in front of him? If it's your 2nd and 3rd best (or 2nd and 4th etc) hitters then it's no big deal; Yelich 2nd would still be better, but the difference is miniscule. You put your best hitters 1-3 (or 1-4 really) and you'll see good results, no matter the order. You could make the case for one inferior hitter but with high OBP early on. But it gets really iffy with two. Sogard, Cain and Holt (And Urias, among the more hopeful) are the guys I've seen mentioned in a 1-2 of that ilk (Also frequently Hiura, but that I have less issues with). Now a lot can happen, Sogard can have another 115 wRC+ type of year and others can underperform making him a top 3-4 hitter. Same with Cain. But it's very likely that we'd have the 6th-7th hitter in the lineup batting 2nd.

 

Now consider the effect of that. IIRC each spot lower in the order loses ~.11 PA/G. Over 162 games that's ~18 PAs. Moving from 7th to 2nd will see 90 extra PAs; 6th to 2nd ~72 extra. This is in addition to the fact that 4 of your 5 best hitters (Assuming the last one is leading off) would each lose ~18 PAs each. 72 more PAs to a worse hitter, and 72 fewer to your best ones. Because the leadoff spot isn't just about on base ability. Overall offensive contribution matters. Hitting for power and hitting HRs matters even with the bases empty. And much of the non-analytical theorizing about batting orders is based only on that 1st inning, beyond that point batters could come up in any situation. Cleanup hitter can lead off, leadoff hitter can face the bases loaded. Getting too cute with attempts to set up situationally favorable matchups can go too far. There is a lot of value in simply getting your best hitters to the plate as often as possible.

[Lathund]

So in an ideal world, this is what I'd like to do with a lineup:

#1: Top 3 hitter on the team, with high OBP

#2: Best hitter on the team, well rounded, with OBP and power.

#3: 4th best hitter on the team. Not a low-OBP guy

#4: Top 3 hitter on the team. Power focus.

#5: 5th best hitter. Power Focus

#6-9: 6th to 9th best hitters (Batting the pitcher 8th can be a good idea depending on the rest of the team, especially top of the order. But we'll leave that for now; benefits are very marginal even in the right situation). With the caveat that #6 sees the bases loaded *a lot* more often than any other position. Soo... Braun?

 

It's hard to properly translate that for the Brewers. Having 2018 Cain makes it easier, since then he'd fit the leadoff perfectly. Could make arguments for Hiura as a #2, #3 or #4 hitter. Smoak in 2017-2018 form could also concievably fit the profile for any spot 1-5. If Braun can stave of father time another year, he also fits in multiple places. Narvaez walks and hits for power too, so works in several spots. But that's really a good problem to have tbh. The more even and rounded your lineup is, the less batting order matters.

[clancyphile]

So in an ideal world, this is what I'd like to do with a lineup:

#1: Top 3 hitter on the team, with high OBP

#2: Best hitter on the team, well rounded, with OBP and power.

#3: 4th best hitter on the team. Not a low-OBP guy

#4: Top 3 hitter on the team. Power focus.

#5: 5th best hitter. Power Focus

#6-9: 6th to 9th best hitters (Batting the pitcher 8th can be a good idea depending on the rest of the team, especially top of the order. But we'll leave that for now; benefits are very marginal even in the right situation). With the caveat that #6 sees the bases loaded *a lot* more often than any other position. Soo... Braun?

 

It's hard to properly translate that for the Brewers. Having 2018 Cain makes it easier, since then he'd fit the leadoff perfectly. Could make arguments for Hiura as a #2, #3 or #4 hitter. Smoak in 2017-2018 form could also concievably fit the profile for any spot 1-5. If Braun can stave of father time another year, he also fits in multiple places. Narvaez walks and hits for power too, so works in several spots. But that's really a good problem to have tbh. The more even and rounded your lineup is, the less batting order matters.

 

For me, it's:

#1: High OBP with speed.

#2: High OBP who hits for average

#3: Best hitter on team

#4: Top 3 hitter with power

#5: Hitter aside from 1-4 with best power-speed number

#6: Power hitter

#7: Best hit-for-average guy NOT in 1-4 spots

#8: Best OBP/speed guy not in the 1-3 or 5 spots

#9: Pitcher

[brewcrewdue80]

So in an ideal world, this is what I'd like to do with a lineup:

#1: Top 3 hitter on the team, with high OBP

#2: Best hitter on the team, well rounded, with OBP and power.

#3: 4th best hitter on the team. Not a low-OBP guy

#4: Top 3 hitter on the team. Power focus.

#5: 5th best hitter. Power Focus

#6-9: 6th to 9th best hitters (Batting the pitcher 8th can be a good idea depending on the rest of the team, especially top of the order. But we'll leave that for now; benefits are very marginal even in the right situation). With the caveat that #6 sees the bases loaded *a lot* more often than any other position. Soo... Braun?

 

It's hard to properly translate that for the Brewers. Having 2018 Cain makes it easier, since then he'd fit the leadoff perfectly. Could make arguments for Hiura as a #2, #3 or #4 hitter. Smoak in 2017-2018 form could also concievably fit the profile for any spot 1-5. If Braun can stave of father time another year, he also fits in multiple places. Narvaez walks and hits for power too, so works in several spots. But that's really a good problem to have tbh. The more even and rounded your lineup is, the less batting order matters.

 

That should translate to:

Braun Can Steal 20bases I imagine as well

Yelich

Garcia

Hiura

Narvaez

Cain

3b

SS

Pitcher

[wntrtxn21]

So in an ideal world, this is what I'd like to do with a lineup:

#1: Top 3 hitter on the team, with high OBP

#2: Best hitter on the team, well rounded, with OBP and power.

#3: 4th best hitter on the team. Not a low-OBP guy

#4: Top 3 hitter on the team. Power focus.

#5: 5th best hitter. Power Focus

#6-9: 6th to 9th best hitters (Batting the pitcher 8th can be a good idea depending on the rest of the team, especially top of the order. But we'll leave that for now; benefits are very marginal even in the right situation). With the caveat that #6 sees the bases loaded *a lot* more often than any other position. Soo... Braun?

 

It's hard to properly translate that for the Brewers. Having 2018 Cain makes it easier, since then he'd fit the leadoff perfectly. Could make arguments for Hiura as a #2, #3 or #4 hitter. Smoak in 2017-2018 form could also concievably fit the profile for any spot 1-5. If Braun can stave of father time another year, he also fits in multiple places. Narvaez walks and hits for power too, so works in several spots. But that's really a good problem to have tbh. The more even and rounded your lineup is, the less batting order matters.

 

For me, it's:

#1: High OBP with speed.

#2: High OBP who hits for average

#3: Best hitter on team

#4: Top 3 hitter with power

#5: Hitter aside from 1-4 with best power-speed number

#6: Power hitter

#7: Best hit-for-average guy NOT in 1-4 spots

#8: Best OBP/speed guy not in the 1-3 or 5 spots

#9: Pitcher

 

I like your lineup. IF Cain can be anywhere near what he was in the 2nd half of last year and 2018:

CF Cain

3B Holt/Sogard

LF Yelich

1B Braun

2B Huira

RF Garcia

C Narvaez

SS Sogard/Arcia

P

[RollieTime]

Thought it might be time to bump this thread with the recent discussions of where Yelich should bat.

 

Over the course of the season, using an average OBP for a hitter, in the first inning the two hole hitter will have 52 times during the regular season in the first inning with a runner on base and 110 times with the bases empty. Batting in the three hole, he will have 86 appearances in the first inning with AT LEAST one runner on base, 76 times without. 16 of those plate appearances will have multiple runners on base.

 

Over the course of the season, your 3 hole hitter will have roughly 17 less at bats compared to hitting 2nd.

 

I personally love having the best hitter in the 3 hole, hopefully getting a runner on base in front of Yelich early in the game when a pitcher isn’t locked in yet. Especially for a team constructed like we are, getting that early lead and putting the pressure on the opposing team knowing that innings 6-9 will be tough to score.

 

I will gladly take the one less at bat every 10 games for Yelich to get him an additional 34 at bats during the regular season with at least one runner on base in the first inning alone. And remember, this is based on players with a .320 OBP. Get a couple guys with a .350 OBP and those opportunities in the first inning start approaching the mid to upper 90’s for opportunities with at least one runner on base.

[brewcrewdue80]

Thought it might be time to bump this thread with the recent discussions of where Yelich should bat.

 

Over the course of the season, using an average OBP for a hitter, in the first inning the two hole hitter will have 52 times during the regular season in the first inning with a runner on base and 110 times with the bases empty. Batting in the three hole, he will have 86 appearances in the first inning with AT LEAST one runner on base, 76 times without. 16 of those plate appearances will have multiple runners on base.

 

Over the course of the season, your 3 hole hitter will have roughly 17 less at bats compared to hitting 2nd.

 

I personally love having the best hitter in the 3 hole, hopefully getting a runner on base in front of Yelich early in the game when a pitcher isn’t locked in yet. Especially for a team constructed like we are, getting that early lead and putting the pressure on the opposing team knowing that innings 6-9 will be tough to score.

 

I will gladly take the one less at bat every 10 games for Yelich to get him an additional 34 at bats during the regular season with at least one runner on base in the first inning alone. And remember, this is based on players with a .320 OBP. Get a couple guys with a .350 OBP and those opportunities in the first inning start approaching the mid to upper 90’s for opportunities with at least one runner on base.

Superb. Love the analysis-statistics. If youre looking Wong, Cain 1-2 the HR debate gets a lot harder for argument. OB in front of your best hitter during 1st innings which Starting Pitchers tend to struggle before finding a groove. Add to it Yeli's likely high OB and your cleanup hitter can really put a 1st inning hurt on what is normally a good to stud SP.

[pacopete4]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

[DR28]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

 

Wow, you really do not like Cain.

[Lathund]

The issue with having both Cain and Wong up there is that while they get on base, their overall offensive production is unlikely to be more than slightly above average, at best. Having one table setter is fine, but if the second one is normally your 6th or so best hitter, he'll get 70 more PAs than he "should", while the players he pushes back lose the same amount combined. OBP in the #2 spot is actually one of the major arguments for why Yelich should hit there, as he's very likely to have the highest OBP on the team, and so you get runners on base in the first inning without giving additional plate appearances to worse hitters.

 

Part of the issue with having the best hitter in the #3 spot is that while he does get runners on base in the 1st a lot, #3 is also the spot that comes up to the plate with two ours and nobody on more often than any other position, and those are the least valuable plate appearances there are. If the goal is to maximize RBI opportunities for Yelich in the 1st, then you're better of batting him 4th. If the goal is to score more runs overall, you'd want him 2nd or even leading off (Though I wouldn't do that) rather than 3rd.

 

The usual caveat applies though, that it makes very little difference. The difference between anything remotely sensible (Like sorting the hitters by descending OBP or something) and the optimal lineup is a couple runs over the course of a season. Whether Yelich hits 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th will make even less of a difference.

[RollieTime]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

 

Looking at his splits, Cain’s OBP was north of .320 against RHP in 2019 which is the figure used for this exercise. I’m not sure exactly what you’re saying though. Any player on the team could hit into a double play I guess? I provided the facts and figures over a 162 game sample. I mean sure he could hit into a double play just like Hiura, Narvaez, anybody could. Yelich could also have it where he comes up 110 times with nobody on base anyway like stated previously hitting in the two hole. The numbers account for things like double plays and fielder’s choices built into the numbers.

 

Are you suggesting a guy like Hiura hitting second then because he strikes out at a high clip so there will be less double play opportunities? I’m not exactly following.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Wong gets on and Cain slaps a weak grounder at the 2B and now Yelich is up with no men on base because you've put a guy in the 2-hole that doesn't get the job done anymore against right-handed pitching.

 

Looking at his splits, Cain’s OBP was north of .320 against RHP in 2019 which is the figure used for this exercise. I’m not sure exactly what you’re saying though. Any player on the team could hit into a double play I guess? I provided the facts and figures over a 162 game sample. I mean sure he could hit into a double play just like Hiura, Narvaez, anybody could. Yelich could also have it where he comes up 110 times with nobody on base anyway like stated previously hitting in the two hole. The numbers account for things like double plays and fielder’s choices built into the numbers.

 

Are you suggesting a guy like Hiura hitting second then because he strikes out at a high clip so there will be less double play opportunities? I’m not exactly following.

 

I think he's saying we should never have a runner on first base due to the possibility of the double play.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This board is going to implode when Orlando Arcia is in the #2 hole against the Twins on opening day.